Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[sirazimuth]

fun fact...

bitcoin died
47 times in 2021
27 times in 2022
8 times in 2023
2 times in 2024

Apparently the bitch is learning how not to die.

https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/

GO BITCOIN

[philipma1957]

sell ladder shaved a piece off. also pretty good record that btc did cross 107k








Now please remember I replace these shavings with my new leaner smaller mine.

the ladder goes up to 141,141

I showed a bit in the screen shot.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

Note to vroom: rocket be fueling up.

[cygan]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

some of these huge new ATH numbers just casually tossed out around here would make satoshi proud

ngl enjoying this much

thank you again satoshi

On a rooftop in Buenos Aires
Ngl enjoying it as well

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

What if....if Trump Bitcoin reserve allocation will indeed happening as a result the price will moon upwards $500,000+ in 2025.

I can’t even imagine something that amazing happens to us, I have imposter syndrome or something.

My target for the top of this cycle is still $180,000 - $225,000 or something.

What are you going to do at or around your seemingly modest target?

About a week and a half ago, I had already gone through a process of figuring out and then setting my sell orders after $150k and then up to around $450k, and sure I may have had been cheating a little bit since I had already outlined a tentative plan earlier in 2024, but then I thought that I could sleep on the tentative plan until BTC prices started getting closer to $100k, and so we kind of got stuck without getting too much closer to $100k, but then by December 4th / December 5th, my sell orders up to $150k started to seem quite scarce and as if they could easily fill and then catch me off guard without having any sell orders on the books.. so I did not want that.

Anyhow, it feels a bit better to have the numbers in place, and yeah, each time we get into these price discovery areas there are some disorienting aspects and at the same time some grounding that comes from making the readjustments.. like $100k is our new floor or something like that... even though sure, the floor could be pierced, but $100k becomes a new Schelling point... in which it seems more likely that we are going to Schell (if that's a word?) above rather than below the Schelling point.

[philipma1957]

What if....if Trump Bitcoin reserve allocation will indeed happening as a result the price will moon upwards $500,000+ in 2025.

I can’t even imagine something that amazing happens to us, I have imposter syndrome or something.

My target for the top of this cycle is still $180,000 - $225,000 or something.

What are you going to do at or around your seemingly modest target?

About a week and a half ago, I had already gone through a process of figuring out and then setting my sell orders after $150k and then up to around $450k, and sure I may have had been cheating a little bit since I had already outlined a tentative plan earlier in 2024, but then I thought that I could sleep on the tentative plan until BTC prices started getting closer to $100k, and so we kind of got stuck without getting too much closer to $100k, but then by December 4th / December 5th, my sell orders up to $150k started to seem quite scarce and as if they could easily fill and then catch me off guard without having any sell orders on the books.. so I did not want that.

Anyhow, it feels a bit better to have the numbers in place, and yeah, each time we get into these price discovery areas there are some disorienting aspects and at the same time some grounding that comes from making the readjustments.. like $100k is our new floor or something like that... even though sure, the floor could be pierced, but $100k becomes a new Schelling point... in which it seems more likely that we are going to Schell (if that's a word?) above rather than below the Schelling point.

Yeah I rather do my sales in Jan not dec due some complex tax issues.  So my ladder stops around 141 or 142 k.

But I likely need to set another pair of ladders say:

151
162
173
184
195

and then

212
223
234
245
256

[d_eddie]

Are we unpoor now?

instant ramen with eggs and green onion it is...  sushi time

I'm going for the full Bento box.

there might be something you like...
https://yuizen.cqree.jp/premium/index
https://www.kurumesi-bentou.com/ranking/tokyo/1500-3499/

Oishisou!
Reasonable prices too. Could be thought of as extra luxury ramen (kind of that $$ category I mean).
I doubt they ship abroad though.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

OT: Google's quantum computer.
https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/10/google-says-its-new-quantum-chip-indicates-that-multiple-universes-exist/
and
https://blog.google/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip/

Willow’s performance on this benchmark is astonishing: It performed a computation in under five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 1025 or 10 septillion years. If you want to write it out, it’s 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years. This mind-boggling number exceeds known timescales in physics and vastly exceeds the age of the universe. It lends credence to the notion that quantum computation occurs in many parallel universes, in line with the idea that we live in a multiverse, a prediction first made by David Deutsch.

The logic of this is difficult to follow for me: they claim that the fact that their quantum computer is so much faster than the regular computer (does something in 5min that "regular"supercomputer can only do in 10^25 years, which is roughly 1 million billion times longer than our Universe existed somehow indicates that the quantum computer uses parallel universes to do the calculations. This just does not seem right to me.

However, I can imagine the quantum computer "spawning" those universes, maybe virtually, to "help" it's calculations.
Otherwise, it is not clear to me how it managed to link up with those preexisting universes as there is nothing there that one might consider an interface.
I read the D. Deutsch book, but the argument there was just as unclear. Perhaps, I am just not getting it.

A related video by Sabine Hossenfelder:

Did Google's Quantum Computer Find Evidence for the Multiverse?

[d_eddie]

What if....if Trump Bitcoin reserve allocation will indeed happening as a result the price will moon upwards $500,000+ in 2025.

we'd have a run-up like back in the days. Last cycle's was was broken by shitcoiner Musk and the Chinese mining ban

Again: don't forget Gensler hamstringing spot ETFs. I blame him and nasty senile Biden.

[Gachapin]

Are we unpoor now?

instant ramen with eggs and green onion it is...  sushi time

I'm going for the full Bento box.

there might be something you like...
https://yuizen.cqree.jp/premium/index
https://www.kurumesi-bentou.com/ranking/tokyo/1500-3499/

Oishisou!
Reasonable prices too. Could be thought of as extra luxury ramen (kind of that $$ category I mean).
I doubt they ship abroad though.

Indeed, the prices are really low for what you get. That goes for most services in Japan. Always great cost/performance!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LFC_Bitcoin]

What are you going to do at or around your seemingly modest target?

About a week and a half ago, I had already gone through a process of figuring out and then setting my sell orders after $150k and then up to around $450k, and sure I may have had been cheating a little bit since I had already outlined a tentative plan earlier in 2024, but then I thought that I could sleep on the tentative plan until BTC prices started getting closer to $100k, and so we kind of got stuck without getting too much closer to $100k, but then by December 4th / December 5th, my sell orders up to $150k started to seem quite scarce and as if they could easily fill and then catch me off guard without having any sell orders on the books.. so I did not want that.

Anyhow, it feels a bit better to have the numbers in place, and yeah, each time we get into these price discovery areas there are some disorienting aspects and at the same time some grounding that comes from making the readjustments.. like $100k is our new floor or something like that... even though sure, the floor could be pierced, but $100k becomes a new Schelling point... in which it seems more likely that we are going to Schell (if that's a word?) above rather than below the Schelling point.

Without giving too much away, I’m going to take what I deem as a lot of money out between $140,000 - $200,000. I still remember being deluded in 2016 and 2017 as a moon boy, thinking it would keep going up which led to me selling nothing. The ensuing bear market was tough because I had a lot of regrets. I said then, that would not happen to me again.

If the price continues to rise past $200,000 and we end up in some type of super cycle I will just sell more as we go up. Absolute maximum % of the current stash I am willing to sell is 50% this cycle but in all likelihood it will be 25% or thereabouts.

Obviously the plan will be to buy as much back as possible in the inevitable bear market that follows in 2026/27.

[philipma1957]

What if....if Trump Bitcoin reserve allocation will indeed happening as a result the price will moon upwards $500,000+ in 2025.

we'd have a run-up like back in the days. Last cycle's was was broken by shitcoiner Musk and the Chinese mining ban

Again: don't forget Gensler hamstringing spot ETFs. I blame him and nasty senile Biden.

we ran up about 17x from jan 2017 to dec 2017

that would mean we top 1.5 million next dec 2025

[d_eddie]

we ran up about 17x from jan 2017 to dec 2017
that would mean we top 1.5 million next dec 2025

I don't think it scales that way. It can do that while the money needed to move the market cap is so little as to be negligible. Double 1 million, it's 2 millions. Or even a few millions - almost no sweat. Now, double a dozen of times and you get into several billions. Now the whole thing changes, because there's only so much the average Joe can do.

It's similar to the physics of pendulum motion. The famous result about isochronous oscillations - that is, the time duration of a pendulum swing is independent of the displacement - only works when we can assume the displacement x small enough: such that x/sin(x) ~ 1. As soon as the money needed goes beyond a certain order of magnitude (that is, when the pendulum swings are wider, as in over 0.1 radians ~ 6 degrees), isochronism doesn't hold anymore. And proportionality of our number movement won't scale anymore.

Another way to look at it is that perpetual exponential growth cannot be sustained in a closed system. There's a lid somewhere, and any exponentially growing quantity (such as btc number under unform rate of growth) is bound to hit it.

This doesn't mean number can't go up for a very long time. It only means it can't keep on going up at a constant rate for a long time. The rate of growth must decrease.