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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26954246 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
promise444c5
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December 21, 2024, 04:18:51 PM


She’s not gonna survive, period!
But what’s up with the 30k chorus these days… heard it from more than 4 people already Undecided

It's just like the $10K gangs a year or two.
At least let them Dream
I will leave them to their dreams then.. Grin
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December 21, 2024, 04:21:26 PM

...what’s up with the 30k chorus these days… heard it from more than 4 people already Undecided
Adolescents think it's cool to be pessimistic.
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December 21, 2024, 04:44:46 PM

...what’s up with the 30k chorus these days… heard it from more than 4 people already Undecided
Adolescents think it's cool to be pessimistic.
Hmm...preparing for the worst , even when it seems unlikely , isn't bad Smiley
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December 21, 2024, 04:53:50 PM
Last edit: December 21, 2024, 05:10:29 PM by Biodom
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Bitcoin has 32 halvings and we have only seen 4.

Let that sink in.


https://twitter.com/Bitcoin_Teddy/status/1870017713235476774?t=FOO5n0DG4ynCkjd1xOwDNQ&s=19

By late 2035, early 2036 (the end of reward era 7 when we would transition from 0.78 to 0.39btc/block), we would be at above 99% of supply, which would mean that the supply is essentially stable with just few btc per day (about 56) being issued.

I expect that by that time the first part of Satoshi's prediction ("either a lot of transactions or very few transactions") would be correct.
We might also have to update anti-quantum properties/features of the software, if needed.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

EDIT: One of the "unspoken" rules of WO-one does not post a long text in super large letters OR people would get 'mad'. Please, experiment with your settings.
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December 21, 2024, 05:01:15 PM


Explanation
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December 21, 2024, 05:18:43 PM

Of course, given where we are at, the number of whole coiners is going to be much lower than the 0.26%, even in the best of equal distribution scenarios that we could imagine going forward.
Natural and/or spread out (or equal) distribution would rarely play out in a free market, and I can hardly imagine any scenarios in which more fair distribution could be attempted to be pushed upon the world and its bitcoin acquisition.. so one of the main solutions end up with individual action, and individual responsibility to try to figure out how to consider how to get as many BTC as they are able to get within their own limited circumstances.  

Surely, if we consider so many rich folks, institutions and governments that are going to try to "stockpile" their own little stash, which likely makes it difficult for normies to hold even more than a million satoshis... which likely means that it would be good to buy those million satoshis sooner rather than later, since currently a million-ish satoshis ONLY cost a bit more than $1k.
Edit... and even a nice little buying opportunity as I edit this post.. perhaps we might be able to get some bitcoin for less than 6 digits?  Perhaps? perhaps?.. that means more than 1 million satoshis for $1k.
I understand that not everyone will want to own bitcoin, there are many rich people who made their fortune in real estate or other businesses and they were able to do it without bitcoin. And if they did not buy it before when it cost several hundred, then now that the cost of bitcoin has reached 100k, buying this asset will not be of interest to them.

That is pretty dumb thinking.

I understand the tendency for people to want to stick with what they know, yet financial institutions and governments are learning more and more about bitcoin, yet retail and individuals are lagging, which is going to end up costing them, to the extent that they fail/refuse to at least allocate some quantity of their investment portfolio to bitcoin.

Bitcoin has been and will likely continue to eat the lunch of real estate to the extent that bitcoin has been and will likely continue to be the better way to both store and to build value.

One of the current lucky things about bitcoin is that it is still early in terms of world-wide adoption, even though there has been some game theory developments in recent times in which governments and financial institutions are likely discovering they most likely should be getting some bitcoin rather than delaying or else be beaten by other governments and/or financial institutions.

Folks staying in old thinking about what had worked for them in the past are likely to be left behind.

And given the limited emission, I assume that bitcoin will be concentrated in the hands of large companies like Microstrategy or the like, maybe there will be states that will also want to do this, but I don’t understand everything, yesterday there saw that Bukele making concessions regarding payment in bitcoin in order to receive another tranche from the IMF.

But I would like bitcoin to be distributed among millions of inhabitants of our planet, then it would be much more resistant to various kinds of manipulation.

Now that bitcoin is in the wild (for 16 years), there is no way to control who gets bitcoin or how it is distributed, and sure there are large entities trying to get bitcoin, but there is ONLY so much manipulation that they are able to do with the bitcoin that they have.  There are also likely similar tricks to use dollar systems to attempt to manipulate bitcoin's price, yet people, institutions and/or governments could end up on the wrong side of such manipulation attempts if they do not have the bitcoin that they claim to have.

You seem to be spending a lot of time fantasizing about the world in terms of what you wished it to be rather than than dealing with how it is, and surely if you are not personally stacking up on bitcoin, you are likely going to be disadvantaged by your own thinking and lack of preparations to stack for yourself to the extent that you are able to do so somewhat persistently, consistently, ongoingly and even aggressively, but not so much as to end up recking yourself.

~snip
That is hilarious.. the level of lies that guy tells.
~snip
J... come on.  You would have us believe that a wet raccoon actually has 7 fucking billion in the bank?  Most of us aren't that gullible.
Consider your lil selfie fact checked.

I am torn about whether you got me or not. 

Technically speaking... quote, unquote...



I will just say that for sure in recent times Trump is likely rolling in the dough - yet through his whole career he has operated on debt and the ongoing running of businesses to the ground. Even when he was in office the first time, he continued to operate several of his business and to channel USA government business to his businesses, and he is likely going to continue to do that with maybe better luck the second time around.

I am not going to claim to know trump's networth since I am not that interested in studying into the matter (yes I am lacking in facts), and sometimes the level of actual liquid networth might not even matter to real estate guys who are able to keep rolling over properties and to be able to live off of various proceeds that are not subjected to any meaningful accounting, so to unwind the value of the actual assets of folks living off of the rolling over of debt could take a lifetime to accomplish, and ain't nobody got time for that.. I wonder if Justin Bieber is getting into real estate, too?

It is kind of ironic that Trump is saying that he wants to be a champion of bitcoin since bitcoin is such great attempt to bring soundness back to the money, so it is going to continue to be interesting how bitcoin systems will continue to overlap with traditional financial and debt systems, and even figuring out the extent to which bitcoin might be manipulatable through the use of debt instruments without folks, governments and/or financial institutions getting caught up in not having the bitcoin that they claim to have.  Maybe the government will help to incentivize the building of systems in which so many bitcoin are not being held at Coinbase?  Yet, we don't even always know the motivations, and so surely it was good that Trump at least had a conversation with Brian Armstrong a few weeks ago, so they are likely engaged in various conversations about custodial options whether with Coinbase and/or other entities in the bitcoin custodial (or wanna be bitcoin custodial) business.

[edited out]
you definitely show quite some sympathy when it comes to BTC noob investing.
my respect! ... if that's worth anything...

We ongoingly have newbies coming into the space, and so they have to start somewhere, which it can be tough for any of us to get through our first whole cycle and having dilemmas how to accumulate during that time. 

Surely if any of us spent at least a whole bitcoin cycle (or maybe even cycle and a half) accumulating bitcoin, we start to become more comfortable, and we can start to tailor our bitcoin approach based on how much bitcoin we had already accumulated, yet to me, it seems that the most fruitful goals for any newbies would be to try to stay focused on accumulating as much bitcoin as possible during at least their first cycle or cycle and a half, and then to see where they are at after such initiation period.

There are so many folks who still don't know about the importance of BTC accumulation, so they may well either not get into bitcoin or they might squander away their first cycle (cycle and a half), and surely there is ONLY so much any of us can do in terms of repeating that message that so many newbies will likely either not take seriously or not act upon such.
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December 21, 2024, 06:01:18 PM


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December 21, 2024, 06:06:42 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), jojo69 (1)

One of the "unspoken" rules of WO-one does not post a long text in super large letters OR people would get 'mad'. Please, experiment with your settings.

Amen.

Also avoid all-caps (yelling) and try to keep images to less than a few hundred pixels in either direction.

Large images and yelling come across as attention seeking.
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December 21, 2024, 06:38:25 PM

Bitcoin has 32 halvings and we have only seen 4.

Let that sink in.


https://twitter.com/Bitcoin_Teddy/status/1870017713235476774?t=FOO5n0DG4ynCkjd1xOwDNQ&s=19

Since the last halving, Bitcoin has got a bigger stock-to-flow ratio than Gold.
Already after the 4th halving.

Let that sink in  Cool
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December 21, 2024, 06:40:38 PM
Merited by NeuroticFish (2), LoyceV (2), Hueristic (1), AlcoHoDL (1), bitcoinPsycho (1), ibminer (1), psycodad (1)

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December 21, 2024, 07:01:15 PM


Explanation
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December 21, 2024, 07:44:36 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

...what’s up with the 30k chorus these days… heard it from more than 4 people already Undecided
Adolescents think it's cool to be pessimistic.

Some people think that they are engaging in "critical thinking" when they apply such outlier assertions, when in fact they are showing their ignorance of the topic.

Many of us might observe that during a bull market the BTC price mostly does not get within 25% to 50% of the top of the 200-WMA, especially while the bull market is underway, yet at the same time, past happenings and patterns could end up getting broken. Right now the 200-WMA is about $42.4k and it is moving up around $30 per day.  We are about 130%  above the 200-WMA.

Of course in the bear markets, the 200-WMA maybe be touched and it may well even end up being breached... so currently the upper $30ks are less than 10% distance from the 200-WMA, yet the lower $30ks are about 30% from the 200-WMA, which the bear market would need to be quite severe for such lower $30ks to be feasible even on the fringes.

Even with our current correction, there are a lot of discussions of buying from governments and institutions, that contribute towards upwards momentum, and sure it could be that sentiment could reverse to the extent that sentiment might affect bitcoin momentum on the margins.   

I am still having trouble seeing scenarios in which the so many diptwats selling at or around $100k would be buying back, which maybe their starting to buy back might not meaningfully begin until around $85k or so... Sure it could happen even if I am not considering such scenario to be very likely (but what do I know?).

...what’s up with the 30k chorus these days… heard it from more than 4 people already Undecided
Adolescents think it's cool to be pessimistic.
Hmm...preparing for the worst , even when it seems unlikely , isn't bad Smiley

I have no problem with ideas of preparing for the worst... financially and psychologically, yet any newbies to the space should be buying regularly, and so hopefully, for their own good they are not employing waiting rather than buying strategies, especially for such pie in the sky scenarios such as $30ks.

Even you, promise444c5, have less than 1.5 years registered in the forum and presumptively similar times in bitcoin, so hopefully you understand the trade-offs involved in regards to figuring out how much value (if any) you should be holding back for buying dips, versus if you are just buying regularly (such as weekly), then it is likely that you regular buys would capture any severe dips that might end up playing out.

There could be scenarios in which even newer bitcoiners save some of their funds for buying dips, yet they have to appreciate the trade offs of holding back such value.  I frequently consider a person who is able to lump sum invest, and who ends up lump sum investing a decently large amount into bitcoin, then such lump sum person is in a better position to hold money for buying on dips if he already lump summed a lot of value into bitcoin.  Each of us has to figure out the extent to which our already investment into bitcoin might justify holding some value back for possibly buying on dips rather than just buying regularly, consistently and persistently with our money as it comes available each week or however frequently we choose to buy our cornz.
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December 21, 2024, 08:01:14 PM


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December 21, 2024, 08:54:57 PM

Still can't decide on that hardware wallet...  Roll Eyes
I want to dodge the ledger(s), originally wanted to choose a follow-up hw wallet as cold storage.
Now, when coming to feature sets, security design and even price, the choices are almost no-brainers, but going through the FUD and spam with the ledger's, i started to question the need of a hw wallet at all.
I could live with seedword lists and computers, but there will be less convenience in some usecases and security of storing the words would become even more crucial.

On the other hand, i like Passport's and Coldcard's stuff and have the required bucks to spend...

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December 21, 2024, 09:01:20 PM


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promise444c5
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December 21, 2024, 09:15:10 PM


... so hopefully you understand the trade-offs involved in regards to figuring out how much value (if any) you should be holding back for buying dips, versus if you are just buying regularly (such as weekly), then it is likely that you regular buys would capture any severe dips that might end up playing out.

I make use of both  here ...but I enter most dips early( as I don't trust the market to go deeper),  yet it serves  its purpose ( buying dips ) .
I knew nothing about bitcoin before joining btw Smiley
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December 21, 2024, 10:01:17 PM


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December 21, 2024, 11:07:10 PM

We need a new poll.
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