Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

Ho Chi Minh City, can spot it from a mile away! Happy new years dude

Wrong from a few miles further

[JayJuanGee]

@CryptoJelleNL
Chop between $94,000 and $102,000 over the holiday season, then resume up only in 2025.
Relax for a few days - things will get crazy soon.

Genius season approaching fast.
https://x.com/cryptojellenl/status/1872201179406664091

I doubt that "we" can really know if the pause will last a whole another week or not.

We'll Bart again
Don't know where
Don't know when

Personally, I would not characterize our last couple months as bartening, exactly.

Sure, there are desires to identify previously popular patterns and then suggest that they are happening again, yet the slope is way too far UP in order for me to consider the existence of any kind of meaningful bart within our midst.. especially if we consider from November 5th ($69k-ish) to present, and sure we can go all the way back to September 6th ($52.5k-ish) to get even a better zoomed-out view.

Anyone really going to express the BTC pricd to go straight up without having some pauses along the way?

Can you imagine the price dropping down to $20k and going quasi-sideways until 2028?
...Just joking, teasing LFC...

$200k is my lowest peak estimate for 2025.

That is a bit bullish - to expect $200k to be the lowest of your anticipated tops.. and I am not going to say that you are wrong.  I just hate to count my chickens before they hatch.

We have not even gotten past $108k, yet.


For sure it is looking like my early 2024 projection of $120k to $180k within 2024 is looking a bit of a stretch to still achieve within the next 5-ish days.. not impossible, but not very high probabilities  either.. maybe odds of less than 30%?

$200k is my lowest peak estimate for 2025.

yep trump gets in and passes some god awful bills for btc and shit coins.

the rugs will be the biglyest ever

I cashed out enough I would get to be a larger coiner.

Or it could do what I think. 90-110 til he get sworn in. then we take off in feb when he passes some good laws for btc.

I am pretty sure that you have had several opportunties to buy on the dip, and sure maybe you did not actually act upon such opportunities, so why would this time be any different?  You weren't exactly backing up trucks  to buy bitcoin when we were in the $20k range in 2022.. If I recall you were doing some variation of the opposite.

Regarding whether we pump or dump or get caught in a range until January 20th, I kind of expect a continued UPpity until at, near, or around January 20, then a dump.. except perhaps if there were some kind of amazing announcement regarding bitcoin, yet i have my doubts that even good announcements about bitcoin will resist mid-to-late January early February dump.

Of course, how far we would dump may well depend upon how far we are able to pump before then.  I am not going to attempt to call either with any detail, yet getting a supra $120k pump almost seems like a pump for ants, even though I would not want to overly state any expectations, either.

A purposeful rug pull or an automatic sell the news event can't be ruled out folks. We've been there a few times already. It's best to be pee-pared for both uppity and downity, as our local AI-powered bot likes to say.

I have a hard time imagining a dump bringing dee cornz below $85k at this time, prior to getting into the supra $115k territories first.. .. so maybe I might sorcerer wannabe proclaim: $115k prior to $83k?  I am not sure if that is bettable beyond 50/50-ish... and my BTC holdings is already bet long in that direction.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

Can you imagine the price dropping down to $20k and going quasi-sideways until 2028?

.
.
.

Just joking, teasing LFC...

$200k is my lowest peak estimate for 2025.

Where's that minus merit button when you need it!



AFA losing access to your trezor, it doesn't matter, if you lose access to any wallet move your coins immediately!

[bitserve]

As a permahodl I am no bear

I am just surprised how little movement MicroStrategies mayor buys have created.
Especially considering how bullish my media feeds have become.

Is he overdoing it? Is he overdoing it with his infinite money glitch? I mean I have no love for the dollar or any other big print item but somewhere there is a real work based economy and it helps to remain on a good understanding with it.

Well, i guess he's not buying Spot but OTC or directly from miners?
In the long run, it doesn't matter that much, because buying OTC in masses means thinning out future supply on the spot market.
The movement will take place, but delayed.

I sort of have an opposite take.  MicroStrategy buying is a major part of the reason we were able to break $100,000 in the first place.  I would say the market is becoming addicted to his money and when he is done tossing it at the all time highs, the market struggles to sustain itself organically.  This could all change at the drop of a hat if game theory kicks off or the US establishes a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, but for now I would say we are overvalued for what the demand for Bitcoin is currently, but undervalued for what is headed our way.  That smells like short term pain to me, but we'll see.

^THIS^

... And happy XMAS my fellow hodlers!

[JayJuanGee]

AFA losing access to your trezor, it doesn't matter, if you lose access to any wallet move your coins immediately!

You seem to be suggesting that it does not matter if the Trezor has a secure element or not?

If you lose physical possession of your trezor, then the coins should be moved?

I always considered the standard wallet (the one without a passphrase) to be a canary in the coalmine, if it were to get jeopardized first.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[bitserve]

The dude arrived on his celebrating BTC and new years destination

Were is it … merit boost worthy for the correct location

Thank you BTC

Calçada Portuguesa... so... Lisbon? Rio? No fucking idea, lol... but surely a nice place to welcome the new year. Cheers!!

[Hueristic]

AFA losing access to your trezor, it doesn't matter, if you lose access to any wallet move your coins immediately!

You seem to be suggesting that it does not matter if the Trezor has a secure element or not?

If you lose physical possession of your trezor, then the coins should be moved?

I always considered the standard wallet (the one without a passphrase) to be a canary in the coalmine, if it were to get jeopardized first.

You want to gamble with your coins? 

I don't think that's a very bright idea.

I don't care what anyone says if you lose possession no matter how "protected" you think your seed is you would be playing with fire not to move them.

[philipma1957]

AFA losing access to your trezor, it doesn't matter, if you lose access to any wallet move your coins immediately!

You seem to be suggesting that it does not matter if the Trezor has a secure element or not?

If you lose physical possession of your trezor, then the coins should be moved?

I always considered the standard wallet (the one without a passphrase) to be a canary in the coalmine, if it were to get jeopardized first.

You want to gamble with your coins? 

I don't think that's a very bright idea.

I don't care what anyone says if you lose possession no matter how "protected" you think your seed is you would be playing with fire not to move them.

yeah you move them.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

...for ants, as some dude or a football maniac could say...

I think it was Bawb who started the "for ants" thing.

(Trusting your records)
... or some unlikely farmer
(That's duly noted)




#haiku

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

The dude arrived on his celebrating BTC and new years destination

Were is it … merit boost worthy for the correct location

Thank you BTC

Calçada Portuguesa... so... Lisbon? Rio? No fucking idea, lol... but surely a nice place to welcome the new year. Cheers!!

 Gotta be Rio - Copacabana, Avenida Atlantica but not the beach side because it has funkier looking sidewalks.
Trying to be more precise but I'm having trouble finding the exact spot.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[hisslyness]

The dude arrived on his celebrating BTC and new years destination

Were is it … merit boost worthy for the correct location

Thank you BTC

Calçada Portuguesa... so... Lisbon? Rio? No fucking idea, lol... but surely a nice place to welcome the new year. Cheers!!

 Gotta be Rio - Copacabana, Avenida Atlantica but not the beach side because it has funkier looking sidewalks.
Trying to be more precise but I'm having trouble finding the exact spot.

I love to play, but unfortunately I know where the dude is, and how I know is unfair to everyone else!… look closely and you will find him and the GF!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

....At the same time, I would suggest that you are wrong in regards to your description of the vulnerability being ameliorated by having a stronger pin number, which I believe hardly does shit if someone has  physical access to the device with a non-secure element.  
....

no no JJG .... The PIN is used to encrypt the seed on your device. A strong (long) PIN cannot be cracked via brute force, so it's not possible to decrypt your seed when someone gets hold of your device.
That's why Trezor enabled PINs with 50 digit length (maybe longer), when they fixed the vulnerability of physical access a few years ago.  

Means, if your PIN is long enough (has enough entropy) nobody can get the seed out of your device.
No (un)secure element needed !

I recall that the security breach of having physical access to the Trezor was from several years ago, and I thought that the ONLY remedies was avoiding physical access to the Trezor and/or having a passphrase, as is stated in this Kraken Blog article.  The Article describes brute forcing the pin too, yet I cannot recall the pin being less vulnerable based on length and complication, even though what you say makes sense if they have to brute-force the pin, too.

Until I see something more clear, I will have to take what you are saying about the creation of a more robust pin (as the solution to the problem) with a grain of salt.

haha no need to trust me.... that the PIN protects your Trezor against physical attacks by encrypting the seed is written in the adtual article you posted yourself...  

We then crack the encrypted seed, which is protected by a 1-9 digit PIN, but is trivial to brute force.

https://blog.kraken.com/product/security/kraken-identifies-critical-flaw-in-trezor-hardware-wallets

Again, that's why Trezor upped the possible PIN length to 50 digits (166 Bits), so there is no possibility to brute force anymore.

[Gachapin]

plications to potentially lock us out of our coins, too..

just to pile on, these are ones ive owned
used Trezor One since they came out   -  no probs (but hardware itself can be compromised if someone has physical access to it and the equipment)
use Trezor T since they came out    -  no probs
used Ledger - FUCK NO   nothing but risk here. stay away

afaik, that's not true anymore. It depends all on the lengths of your PIN

If a bad person (who knows something or knows someone who knows something), they can get you private keys (or your seed words) in a matter of 15 minutes (or something like that), so they can get anything on your non-passphrase wallet, and your pin doesn't do anything.  But they cannot get you passphrase wallets unless they are able to guess them or brute-force them.

yeah, but we talked about the attack vector of physical access to the device.. (with regard to secure elements)

A passphrase should always be used, secure element or not

I understand that the passphrase provides an extra layer of security, yet it seems that the passphrase is way more justified with a non-secure element device.  I have not heard about the seed phrase being extracted from secure element kinds of devices, whether Trezor or otherwise... yet I also don't claim to be a technical guru or to follow security vulnerabilities in details if it is not coming out in some kind of more generally release kind of way or being mentioned in one of the forum threads.

Sure, you cannot extract the seed from an SE. But the company that builds the SE can.
Why should I trust some centralized entity when there is no need for it?


With a non-SE device:

PIN protects the device.
Passphrase protects the seed.
In that order.

Of course you can use the passphrase for protecting the device while having a weak PIN.

But why weaken the security? And you also open up the possibility that someone can move your coins if he solely has the passphrase and gets hold of your device (because it's protected by a weak PIN)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com