Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

WO gentleman

Someone can guess, what is the signal?


some direction : Bitcoiner's House

Naaah Max 1 window with green mirror
And even that will not be realistic …
10-20 times the picture and 1 green window

The rest are n00bs still didn’t figured it out…

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

WO gentleman

Someone can guess, what is the signal?


some direction : Bitcoiner's House

hmm not surre at all

[goldkingcoiner]

Instead of a BTC price chart, all we really need is a green vertical progress bar that says "new generation of money loading" and when it reaches 100% we will know that everyone in the world is using BTC instead of fiat.

at a minimum you need btc for value and a shit coin like doge for p2p



https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/addresses/btc/1JdC6Xg3ajT3rge3FgPNSYYFpmf53Vbtje


look at the business done with that address

695 coins in and out a total of 80,000,000 usd today

Are you 100% certain the p2p issue cannot be fixed? I get the volatility has been a problem but it seems that it has decreased over time and might continue to decrease as more and more adoption happens. Fees and confirmation latency are the main issues currently as I understand it?

And whatever happened to the optimism for layer 2 solutions? Or atomic swaps between compatible blockchains? I do not mind swapping Bitcoin for Monero for all my microtransactional needs. Hell, I would even go for Litecoin. Even if that's just a work-around until we get a better solution.

[philipma1957]

Instead of a BTC price chart, all we really need is a green vertical progress bar that says "new generation of money loading" and when it reaches 100% we will know that everyone in the world is using BTC instead of fiat.

at a minimum you need btc for value and a shit coin like doge for p2p



https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/addresses/btc/1JdC6Xg3ajT3rge3FgPNSYYFpmf53Vbtje


look at the business done with that address

695 coins in and out a total of 80,000,000 usd today

Are you 100% certain the p2p issue cannot be fixed? I get the volatility has been a problem but it seems that it has decreased over time and might continue to decrease as more and more adoption happens. Fees and confirmation latency are the main issues currently as I understand it?

And whatever happened to the optimism for layer 2 solutions? Or atomic swaps between compatible blockchains? I do not mind swapping Bitcoin for Monero for all my microtransactional needs. Hell, I would even go for Litecoin. Even if that's just a work-around until we get a better solution.

Problem is BTC is fixed and truly anti inflationary.

1 btc is 1 btc

but the dollar/fiat shrinks like mad.

my apologies to JJG and the wo

"Doge is controlled inflation
+x  coins every year

year 1 = 1x
year 2 = 2x   100% inflation

year 10 = 10x
year 11 = 11x 10% inflation

year 50 = 50x
year 51 = 51x 2% inflation

year 100 = 100x
year 101 = 101x = 1% inflation

so for p2p it should never grow to huge heights like btc"





Maybe below does happen





now a plus for btc is below

picture most games having the feature below



If this were to catch on it would boost LN bigly

which may help miner rewards/fees

This is a very interesting development if I understand it correctly. If this style of payments catches on in a lot of games BTC will really get helped. It also could possibly help miners fees down the road.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

When do we hit $120,000?  I'm guessing Tuesday evening (Wednesday morning).

[promise444c5]

When do we hit $120,000?  I'm guessing Tuesday evening (Wednesday morning).

If not tomorrow then I’m guessing Monday following Saylor’s DCA

[danadc]

That's true, that's why I like PlanB's prediction model.



x: https://x.com/100trillionUSD/status/1943943693507211732

[kellrobinson]

End stage bitcoin bull market Q3 2025



In the chart above, the Triangle Oscillator is nearing a top.   If past is prologue, the bull market's end is approaching.  

As the first chart's horizontal labeling should make clear, this algorithm indexes the price by block height, not date. The chart below re-indexes per the calendar (while rescaling the oscillator vertically to make the chart more readable).



The extrapolation (red) suggests that the present boom, such as it is, will lose impetus around the end of August. One could reasonably expect a subsequent decline in bitcoin's exchange rate. It's also possible, as a result of declining volatility, that the halvings' influence on price is now so inconsequential that bitcoin's future cyclic declines won't even cancel the natural long term monotonic growth of bitcoin's price, in which case we might simply see many months of choppy sideways price action instead of real bear markets.

Nothing's for sure, as you can tell from looking at 2021. The turn signal came at the first top, then exceeded by a subsequent top, though not by much. Looking back, the way bitcoin's price action rocketed upward in Q4 2020 hinted at something unusual in the offing. This price action, as reflected in the oscillator, wasn't in keeping with expected cyclic behavior (see previous posts for why the oscillator is expected to show a triangle wave in response to regular cyclic price action).  This next chart compares the vagaries of bitcoin's cyclic price action to an ideal triangle wave.



The chart below shows the phase relationship. By the third halving, bitcoin had got well out of phase and responded with some wild swings between block 650000 and 700000. Eventually she settled down. The price is now in phase with Q4 2015, almost like we've come home.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Richy_T]

He is 94 years old, age can make someone not follow new technologies. He was very wrong.

He was a fair bit younger at the time but he did not understand the technology and had lots of other good investments so what he did was right for him. He won't be suffering.

Of course, all the asset stripping he did back in the day, not so good but that's another story.

Are you 100% certain the p2p issue cannot be fixed? I get the volatility has been a problem but it seems that it has decreased over time and might continue to decrease as more and more adoption happens. Fees and confirmation latency are the main issues currently as I understand it?

And whatever happened to the optimism for layer 2 solutions? Or atomic swaps between compatible blockchains? I do not mind swapping Bitcoin for Monero for all my microtransactional needs. Hell, I would even go for Litecoin. Even if that's just a work-around until we get a better solution.

Volatility is not really the issue. The unpredictability of transaction fees is, as you say. It's a shame because p2p really is the killer application for adoption and decoupling from financial markets.

[Mihaylovic]

Turn the page.

[Oshosondy]

He was a fair bit younger at the time but he did not understand the technology and had lots of other good investments so what he did was right for him. He won't be suffering.

10 years ago he was 84

He was 78 sixteen years ago.

Not so young at all.

Many people are resting already at that age. People in such age are harder to convince to something new.

25-34:
This age group represents the largest market segment for Bitcoin users, accounting for 38.2% of users, according to ElectroIQ.

35-44:
This group shows strong participation, with 25.5% of Bitcoin users falling within this age range.

18-24:
While younger than the previous two groups, this demographic is still a significant portion of Bitcoin users, representing 15.3%.
Older age groups:

Bitcoin adoption decreases with age, with the 45-54 group at 13.1%, 55-64 at 5.6%, and 65+ at 2.3%

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

Instead of a BTC price chart, all we really need is a green vertical progress bar that says "new generation of money loading" and when it reaches 100% we will know that everyone in the world is using BTC instead of fiat.

at a minimum you need btc for value and a shit coin like doge for p2p



https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/addresses/btc/1JdC6Xg3ajT3rge3FgPNSYYFpmf53Vbtje


look at the business done with that address

695 coins in and out a total of 80,000,000 usd today

Are you 100% certain the p2p issue cannot be fixed? I get the volatility has been a problem but it seems that it has decreased over time and might continue to decrease as more and more adoption happens. Fees and confirmation latency are the main issues currently as I understand it?

And whatever happened to the optimism for layer 2 solutions? Or atomic swaps between compatible blockchains? I do not mind swapping Bitcoin for Monero for all my microtransactional needs. Hell, I would even go for Litecoin. Even if that's just a work-around until we get a better solution.

Later, too, is doing great. Zapping people on nostr is almost foolproof and lots of value goes around there.

Aqua Wallet is an extremely interesting project that works super well.
Misty Breeze is similar to Aqua, not exactly the same. It also works quite well.

If one is technically minded, setting up a lightning node is not terribly hard, I have converted over to Umbral recently.

And Wallet of Satoshi is promising a self-custodial version that works just as smoothly as their original for the states, which is kind of awesome.

A lot of interesting work is being done with chaumian mints and those are going to enable interesting ways to do payments as well.

Layer 2 has not turned out the way we thought it would. Lightning is ended up being more of a backbone protocol for larger nodes, and then a lot of these service providers are building really cool wallets on top, many of which are fully nonscastodial and work like a charm. I really am very impressed with Aqua.

[vapourminer]

mempool at 1 block

1 sat/vb

bitcoin floating around $115k+ at new ATHs


so, layer 2 anyone lol?

i know scaling is and will be an issue but times like this and bullish news all over the joint (for "crypto") and empty mempool..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Oshosondy]

mempool at 1 block

1 sat/vb

bitcoin floating around $115k+ at new ATHs


so, layer 2 anyone lol?

i know scaling is and will be an issue but times like this and bullish news all over the joint (for "crypto") and empty mempool..

We still have the spam but just that the altseason is gone or kind of never happened but you know what I am talking about the Ordinals. Maybe another one would come next season.

But one thing I like about bitcoin is that if the mempool will rise, it will later go back down just like now.