Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Miramax12]

444K to 85K would feel so incredibly bad......as usual  

If unfortunately this happens, it will be the worst situation I have ever seen, which I never imagined.

It won't be 

Percentage-wise it is roughly the same when we went from 20K to 3.2K and from almost 69k to 15.6K.
The absolute numbers would be strikingly different, of course.
btc at 444K is a 9.3 tril "entity". For btc market as a whole to lose 7.5 tril would feel stupendously bad (and very similar in numbers to the Nasdaq plunge from 5K to 1K in 2001-2002).
My "heart" tells me that it won't happen, but my brain tells me that it could.

"When emotions run high, it's easy to ignore the math but history has taught us that even the unimaginable is always just a few steps away in the markets. Whether it's a reset or a revaluation, the key is to stay rational, not reactive.
"Hope is not a strategy, but ignoring risk isn't wisdom either. Gut says no... brain says maybe. That tension is the essence of every cycle.

[Paashaas]

From $0 to $100,000 was the hardest part, futeremore from $100,000 to $1,000,000 BTC will be achieved faster that you think.

[OutOfMemory]

From $0 to $100,000 was the hardest part, futeremore from $100,000 to $1,000,000 BTC will be achieved faster that you think.

The graph's baseline really starts to look like 2/3 of a S-curve.  

[Miramax12]

The headline/teaser made me smirk and after reading I am way much less scared about those quantum thingies factoring meaningful numbers (like i.e. public keys) in foreseeable future:

..
Peter Gutmann, a professor of computer science at the University of Auckland New Zealand, thinks PQC is bollocks – "nonsense" for our American readers – and said as much in a 2024 presentation [PDF], "Why Quantum Cryptanalysis is Bollocks."
..

-> https://www.theregister.com/2025/07/17/quantum_cryptanalysis_criticism/

that headline definitely caught me too and the quote is gold. It's oddly reassuring to hear someone as credible as Gutmann cut through the hype with such bluntness. Quantum computing still feels like a buzzword minefield, so it’s nice to see a grounded take. Makes me wonder how much of the PQC rush is real urgency, just future proofing theater.

[OutOfMemory]

The headline/teaser made me smirk and after reading I am way much less scared about those quantum thingies factoring meaningful numbers (like i.e. public keys) in foreseeable future:

..
Peter Gutmann, a professor of computer science at the University of Auckland New Zealand, thinks PQC is bollocks – "nonsense" for our American readers – and said as much in a 2024 presentation [PDF], "Why Quantum Cryptanalysis is Bollocks."
..

-> https://www.theregister.com/2025/07/17/quantum_cryptanalysis_criticism/

that headline definitely caught me too and the quote is gold. It's oddly reassuring to hear someone as credible as Gutmann cut through the hype with such bluntness. Quantum computing still feels like a buzzword minefield, so it’s nice to see a grounded take. Makes me wonder how much of the PQC rush is real urgency, just future proofing theater.

QC is about as developed as AI.
Both are higher class vapourware...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[roemer]

What hash rate and electrical use will bitcoin be using at 1 million evaluation?

[d_eddie]

The headline/teaser made me smirk and after reading I am way much less scared about those quantum thingies factoring meaningful numbers (like i.e. public keys) in foreseeable future:

..
Peter Gutmann, a professor of computer science at the University of Auckland New Zealand, thinks PQC is bollocks – "nonsense" for our American readers – and said as much in a 2024 presentation [PDF], "Why Quantum Cryptanalysis is Bollocks."
..

-> https://www.theregister.com/2025/07/17/quantum_cryptanalysis_criticism/

The paper linked from The Register is gold. Informative and amusing. I hope that guy will post something here in the WO. Maybe he's one of us already...


https://eprint.iacr.org/2025/1237.pdf

TL;DR: Quantum computers aren't computers: they are physics experiments. There's a tariff on American words, so we stick to "factorise" in this paper. The VIC-20, which is a computer, has beaten all current physics experiment to a pulp. Also a manual abacus has (analog hand-operated computing device). Also a dog has (mammal). Here are the details.

From the conclusions:

In terms of comparative demonstrated factorisation power, we rank a VIC-20 above an abacus, an abacus above a dog, and a dog above a quantum factorisation physics experiment. Finally, we provided standard evaluation criteria for future claimed quantum factorisations.

[Biodom]

It seems that 80K bitcoin seller with bitcoins from 2011 has put a temporary lid on btc: sold to Saylor+DJT+ other treasuries + ETFs.

Another guess-market does not want to give nearsighted Reeves too much for her 5 (or is it 7?) bil of btc.

This should dissipate in a week or two, perhaps.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[danadc]

Saylor is clear:



x:https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1947391251201839264

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

From the conclusions:

In terms of comparative demonstrated factorisation power, we rank a VIC-20 above an abacus, an abacus above a dog, and a dog above a quantum factorisation physics experiment. Finally, we provided standard evaluation criteria for future claimed quantum factorisations.

With a grain of salt:
The first real quantum computer built by humans would be created completely different than seen or thought before, basically by coincidence or by mistake.
Mark my words  

[danadc]

Well, it seems that Trump is shielding himself very well:

Trump's company is shockingly one of the top holders of Bitcoin

Trump's company is shockingly one of the top holders of Bitcoin

thestreet.com:https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/trumps-company-is-shockingly-one-of-the-top-holders-of-bitcoin

The most famous people want to own BTC, Trump is very pro-BTC , on the other hand, Kiyosaki has sensed that they should buy BTC , even if it is small amounts, he also predicted that gold, silver and BTCcould fall in price and that he will take Advantage of it to buy.



x: https://x.com/theRealKiyosaki/status/1947127465954206152

[Biodom]

Saylor is clear:



x:https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1947391251201839264

Well, STRK and STRF performed VERY well.
STRD much less so, still much under par, but above $85 it sold for. At $93 it pays about 10.75%, yet people are hesitating to buy and bid it up.

It seems that despite lower nominal yield (9% vs 10% for STRD), STRC might have better reception because of the offering conditions.

We shall see. If it trades at around 85, I might buy some for a trip to 95-99.

[philipma1957]

From the conclusions:

In terms of comparative demonstrated factorisation power, we rank a VIC-20 above an abacus, an abacus above a dog, and a dog above a quantum factorisation physics experiment. Finally, we provided standard evaluation criteria for future claimed quantum factorisations.

With a grain of salt:
The first real quantum computer built by humans would be created completely different than seen or thought before, basically by coincidence or by mistake.
Mark my words  

yeah it will likely be an Issac Newton inventing calculus moment

if it is even possible for a human in a 3d reality to invent that new math needed.

and if it is invent it will appear to be magical or impossible

[promise444c5]

Tomorrow will make 180 days for the working group to give report back to Mr president
January 23rd ->July 22 [ 8+28+31+30+31+30+22.. days]

Within 180 days of the date of this order, the Working Group shall submit a report to the President, through the APEP, which shall recommend regulatory and legislative proposals that advance the policies established in this order.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/strengthening-american-leadership-in-digital-financial-technology/
Sec. 4 C

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com