Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[SaintFlow]

One could use it for leverage. Lend on your coins, buy more, lend on those buy more until they interview you like Michael Saylor.

[Medusah]

Sure you can! Just not on-chain. Just like a bank can lend out a million dollars without having a single physical dollar in the entire building. As long as the dollars (or Bitcoins) only exist on their own accounting system, they can pull it off.
If you try to withdraw a million dollars, the bank won't let you. The same will happen to Bitcoin if they get their way.

Why would you want to get a loan in paper bitcoin, though?  Why not take a loan in paper dollars, and use them to buy bitcoin?  This way, you don't have counterparty risk (bank going bankrupt, or practicing fractional reserve with no reserves), while you do borrow the bitcoin.  You're also increasing the supply of dollars, while decreasing the market supply of bitcoin, driving the price up.

[LoyceV]

Why would you want to get a loan in paper bitcoin, though?

I don't But I can imagine bankers coming up with this scenario for profit.

Why not take a loan in paper dollars, and use them to buy bitcoin?  This way, you don't have counterparty risk (bank going bankrupt, or practicing fractional reserve with no reserves), while you do borrow the bitcoin.  You're also increasing the supply of dollars, while decreasing the market supply of bitcoin, driving the price up.

I wouldn't invest borrowed money, but I'm risk-averse when it comes to debt.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[hisslyness]

You can not lend out 1,000btc, just because you got 100BTC in your wallet.

Sure you can! Just not on-chain. Just like a bank can lend out a million dollars without having a single physical dollar in the entire building. As long as the dollars (or Bitcoins) only exist on their own accounting system, they can pull it off.
If you try to withdraw a million dollars, the bank won't let you. The same will happen to Bitcoin if they get their way.
I'm not giving them my coins, nor my keys

If you can't doublespend, you have no chance of creating any fractional reserve. You can lend your "fake bitcoins", but that is useless to everyone else not part of your system. You're comparing two different monetary system!.. one far more superior than the other and as far as i am concern, can not be manipulated!

I am sure Jamie and the other bankers are trying to developed their own little scams, but i don't think a fractional reserve of Bitcoin is on the table.

[LoyceV]

If you can't doublespend, you have no chance of creating any fractional reserve. You can lend your "fake bitcoins", but that is useless to everyone else not part of your system.

I'd say we're not that far from such a situation. Many people already fall for "wrapped" Bitcoin, which it nothing more than a promise to real Bitcoin coming from a company hiding in the Cayman Islands. And yet, people fall for it.

[hisslyness]

If you can't doublespend, you have no chance of creating any fractional reserve. You can lend your "fake bitcoins", but that is useless to everyone else not part of your system.

I'd say we're not that far from such a situation. Many people already fall for "wrapped" Bitcoin, which it nothing more than a promise to real Bitcoin coming from a company hiding in the Cayman Islands. And yet, people fall for it.

Hence, why we still get emails from a Nigerian Prince, claiming to have my money!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[buwaytress]

Well, expensive relative to worthless fiat? Or expensive relative to the entertainment value you derive from them? I have expensive chores... relative to the joy I gain from them (almost negative!).

I have both. Expensive chores, but i am a maniac at keeping the cost as low as possible, and expensive hobbies, while "entertainment" is not quite the thing i gain from them (compared to a round of Players Unknown Battleground, for example), but they keep my interest high (on intervals, though), for various reasons (don't ask).

I'm a money-grubbing maniac with my already-comparatively low costs of living for a family of 5 (compared to a typical local single person, and I base that off national numbers). But they still seem expensive to me because of the time I sink into them (can't be helped). As you say, the end game, whether we realise it or not, is to keep our interest in going on.

Won't ask, if you won't

Well, expensive relative to worthless fiat? Or expensive relative to the entertainment value you derive from them? I have expensive chores... relative to the joy I gain from them (almost negative!).

It is amazing how much those of us who had done most of our bitcoin accumulating prior to 2021 were greatly saved by our having had mostly accumulated our bitcoin prior to then (if we might even use $8k-ish as our average cost per BTC).. and if we had accumulated any kind of bitcoin stash, that bitcoin has largely 15x'd in value in the past 5-ish years, even though fiat based prices might have doubled or maybe a bit more than doubled in some cases in the same time period.. Sure there are some items that might have had tripled in price during that time, but our trusty cornz have more than held their own in the whole scheme of things during the past 5-ish years (again presuming that we had mostly done a large majority of our stashing prior to 2021). 

Indeed. I've probably spoken a bit about how I had to liquidate roughly just prior in that 2021 ATH but I had already 10x and up whatever I'd DCA'd in the few short years I started freelancing for BTC. And, as you say, even if you accumulated post-2021, today's situation still helps defeat fiat inflation. My kids' stash has tripled in averaged value (I stopped adding to it in early 2024 as I think they're old enough now to do something for it on their own). More than held their own, I'd say!

[philipma1957]

Why would you want to get a loan in paper bitcoin, though?

I don't But I can imagine bankers coming up with this scenario for profit.

Why not take a loan in paper dollars, and use them to buy bitcoin?  This way, you don't have counterparty risk (bank going bankrupt, or practicing fractional reserve with no reserves), while you do borrow the bitcoin.  You're also increasing the supply of dollars, while decreasing the market supply of bitcoin, driving the price up.

I wouldn't invest borrowed money, but I'm risk-averse when it comes to debt.

Here is how I do debt. EVERY 14 months or so I take out a new Credit card.

It has to have

1 a bonus for 1000 or more purchase
2 cash back on purchases
3 15 or more months to pay it off with zero interest charges.

One more thing if I buy say 2 antminer s21xps at a cost of 13,000 with 500 back in bonus. I owe 12,500 with 14-15 months to pay it. The key is I have to have 12,500 cash on hand to pay it off and about 4,000. Cash on hand for power bills.

Let's analyze this.

0 money up front.

500 back in bonus

And the gear earns 540x0.00000051=0.0002754 btc a day.

So I generate  0.0082 btc a month

Which is roughly (edit) 12000 dollars in a year

I pay off the gear from the cash pile at 1,000 a month and never laid anywhere near the cash than if I buy thr gear out right.

I also get 12,000 tax write off on the gear.

Edit

Yeah I could buy 13,000 in coin upfront but I do not get the tax write off.

[Medusah]

If you can't doublespend, you have no chance of creating any fractional reserve. You can lend your "fake bitcoins", but that is useless to everyone else not part of your system.

I'd say we're not that far from such a situation. Many people already fall for "wrapped" Bitcoin, which it nothing more than a promise to real Bitcoin coming from a company hiding in the Cayman Islands. And yet, people fall for it.

I wouldn't say they "buy" bitcoin.  When you can't put your bitcoin to a bid or ask, nor can you spend it on-chain to some merchant, then you don't have it, nor can you affect the price howsoever.  You're completely outside the system.  A "promise" of bitcoin is more like a bet that you would put in a broker. 

Let's say that I open up a bitcoin bank, with zero bitcoin, only dollars in reserve, and I sell bitcoin promises.  If these promises can only be redeemed for the bitcoin price at the time the redeemer decides in exchange for dollars, then he's just placing a bet that bitcoin will go up; does not affect bitcoin economy in any way. 

Now let's say that I open up a fractional bitcoin bank, with zero dollars and zero bitcoin in reserve.  For every dollar I get in exchange for bitcoin promise, I only buy 10 cents worth of bitcoin without anyone knowing (practicing fractional reserve, with 10% in reserve in secret).  If I grant my clients the right to withdraw bitcoin promises for real bitcoin, then it's a betting platform for 90% of the coins, and a custodian for 10% of the coins.  (Of course I risk going bitcoin-bankrupt, but let's ignore it for the sake of simplicity.) 

So, essentially, one could claim that clients in those banks are "tricked" into believing they're buying bitcoin, while they're placing a bet on bitcoin, but I'd counter-claim that since they did not withdraw immediately, they weren't looking to buy bitcoin in the first place.  What they would want, is to bet that it will go up. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Bluedrem]

I wouldn't invest borrowed money, but I'm risk-averse when it comes to debt.

If I don't have the money to buy aggressively when Bitcoin DIP come out, should I just let the opportunity slip away? Where I can get money to buy from JPMorgan [if the interest rate isn't too high], which I can then pay back from my earnings.

[Hueristic]

If you can't doublespend, you have no chance of creating any fractional reserve. You can lend your "fake bitcoins", but that is useless to everyone else not part of your system.

I'd say we're not that far from such a situation. Many people already fall for "wrapped" Bitcoin, which it nothing more than a promise to real Bitcoin coming from a company hiding in the Cayman Islands. And yet, people fall for it.

I wouldn't say they "buy" bitcoin.  When you can't put your bitcoin to a bid or ask, nor can you spend it on-chain to some merchant, then you don't have it, nor can you affect the price howsoever.  You're completely outside the system.  A "promise" of bitcoin is more like a bet that you would put in a broker.  

Let's say that I open up a bitcoin bank, with zero bitcoin, only dollars in reserve, and I sell bitcoin promises.  If these promises can only be redeemed for the bitcoin price at the time the redeemer decides in exchange for dollars, then he's just placing a bet that bitcoin will go up; does not affect bitcoin economy in any way.  

Now let's say that I open up a fractional bitcoin bank, with zero dollars and zero bitcoin in reserve.  For every dollar I get in exchange for bitcoin promise, I only buy 10 cents worth of bitcoin without anyone knowing (practicing fractional reserve, with 10% in reserve in secret).  If I grant my clients the right to withdraw bitcoin promises for real bitcoin, then it's a betting platform for 90% of the coins, and a custodian for 10% of the coins.  (Of course I risk going bitcoin-bankrupt, but let's ignore it for the sake of simplicity.)  

So, essentially, one could claim that clients in those banks are "tricked" into believing they're buying bitcoin, while they're placing a bet on bitcoin, but I'd counter-claim that since they did not withdraw immediately, they weren't looking to buy bitcoin in the first place.  What they would want, is to bet that it will go up.  

Actually the bolded is untrue, just as all derivative markets DO affect the overall market cap and remove the scarcity aspect of the underlying asset.

If there is no derivative then that volume must go through the underlying asset itself.

This is why People that know what they are talking about call it the nuclear option.

I have been stating this for years but people like to be willfully blind of this fact.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[SaintFlow]

Or could this become some kind of tax avoidance thing where you never sell but get fiat without creating a taxable event?

[ESG]

   _These same ones who have been buying large quantities for a few years,
like, Microstrategy, Elon, Trump, funds in general, they will also sell this someday, ...
...I wonder how and when they will do it...

[bangjoe]

He might think that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is about to end and it will enter a bearish phase, while he will buy during the crash.

He's trying to create FUD, but on the other hand, his analysis is flawed;

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Johnlomape]

A wall of observation of different opinions!
What if you wake up tomorrow morning and see Bitcoin at $200k? What will be your expression?
For me, maybe it's magic that sent Bitcoin to $200k. I will be happy cos uncle Trump will reminds us about his previous comments of the market making us proud.