That's one step away from fractional reserve Bitcoin: someone deposits 1 Bitcoin, someone else borrows 0.95 Bitcoin and deposits it again, after which someone else borrows 0.9 Bitcoin and this keeps repeating until the bank owns everything because of interest.
I don't believe there will be any fractional reserve Bitcoin. If you can not double spend bitcoin, you can not have a factional reserve!... You can not lend out 1,000btc, just because you got 100BTC in your wallet. That's the beauty of Bitcoin! My Node will tell me if you got the real stuff, or not!
EDIT: A company here in AU just won a legal challenge to offer Bitcoin/Other shitcoin backed loans... i looked into it and it is something stupid, like 12% interest and only 40% of the fiat value!... GIGA BULLISH... not for me, that's for sure!.
We likely already have a lot of fractional reserve bitcoin, and surely there are going to be many players who try to push limits as far as they are able to without either getting caught or having the matter blow up in their face... which could be pretty costly if they cannot find some kind of a party that is large enough and willing to bail them out.
Technically, you are correct that there is no such thing as fractional reserve bitcoin when the bitcoin are being verified on chain, yet we already know that there are so many representations of bitcoin out there and they are not being verified on chain, so it can be difficult to know how much bitcoin that the various parties engaged in these practices have to back up the outstanding claims on bitcoin. They may well put themselves in jeopardy, yet they might not get caught if they can avoid runs on the bank.
Well, expensive relative to worthless fiat? Or expensive relative to the entertainment value you derive from them?
I have expensive chores... relative to the joy I gain from them (almost negative!).
It is amazing how much those of us who had done most of our bitcoin accumulating prior to 2021 were greatly saved by our having had mostly accumulated our bitcoin prior to then (if we might even use $8k-ish as our average cost per BTC).. and if we had accumulated any kind of bitcoin stash, that bitcoin has largely 15x'd in value in the past 5-ish years, even though fiat based prices might have doubled or maybe a bit more than doubled in some cases in the same time period.. Sure there are some items that might have had tripled in price during that time, but our trusty cornz have more than held their own in the whole scheme of things during the past 5-ish years (again presuming that we had mostly done a large majority of our stashing prior to 2021).
Indeed. I've probably spoken a bit about how I had to liquidate roughly just prior in that 2021 ATH but I had already 10x and up whatever I'd DCA'd in the few short years I started freelancing for BTC. And, as you say, even if you accumulated post-2021, today's situation still helps defeat fiat inflation. My kids' stash has tripled in averaged value (I stopped adding to it in early 2024 as I think they're old enough now to do something for it on their own). More than held their own, I'd say!
For sure, even the later entrants to bitcoin are likely to have a lot of inflation (dollar/fiat debasement) protection, yet sometimes the cushion cannot be appreciated as well within shorter timelines, including that there can be concerns about a great bitcoin correction at any time.
In recent times, I have been inclined to suggest that when a guy regularly stack sats for 4 years, then he is likely going to approach an average cost per BTC that is right around the 200-WMA... and the BTC spot price tends to be at least 25% greater than the 200-WMA, and right now it is 134% higher. Surely there can be some coins that have cheaper cost, yet the longer that a person is into bitcoin after 4 years, then the more likely that the value has been compounding upon itself.. so surely even guys with average coin costs that are less than $20k are feeling quite comfortable right now. .even if they might still be building their bitcoin holdings.
Regarding your sale that predated the 2021 price, it is good for you that you were able to buy some of them back, and frequently guys here complain about a couple kinds of common problems 1) selling too many bitcoin too soon and 2) failing/refusing to stack enough cornz in earlier times. It is not always easy to act to continue to buy and/or to figure out when you have enough or more than enough.
Managing coins when you have enough and/or more than enough is an easier problem (better problem to have), but guys screw up that one too with a similar problem of selling too many coins too soon, yet also from my perspective another mistake is that many guys valuate their BTC stashes based on top prices rather than bottom prices.
_These same ones who have been buying large quantities for a few years,
like, Microstrategy, Elon, Trump, funds in general, they will also sell this someday, ...
...I wonder how and when they will do it...
Likely you need to worry about your own stack rather than being worried about various future sales of bitcoin that might or might not happen.
Have you been stacking bitcoin? If so, do you have enough or more than enough bitcoin? if you answer no to either of those questions then it seems that you need to keep stacking... through buying... you don't stack bitcoin through selling, contrary to the beliefs of some ill-informed folks who also might sometimes go by the name, "trader."
A wall of observation of different opinions!
What if you wake up tomorrow morning and see Bitcoin at $200k? What will be your expression?
For me, maybe it's magic that sent Bitcoin to $200k. I will be happy cos uncle Trump will reminds us about his previous comments of the market making us proud.
That seems like too much too soon, yet $200k within a couple weeks or a month seems reasonable, even though it will also seem like a lot of price moves at once, even though it is merely a 66% price increase from here... which sometimes can end up playing out very quick, even though 24 hours still seems too short.
BTC's price movement is not totally random, and even within parameters the price moves within limitations that might not be completely obvious, even if we can proclaim that the future is not predetermined either, even though some future scenarios have higher odds as compared with other future scenarios. Part of the reason that we can bat around ideas and disagree relates to the varying reasonable scenarios with some scenarios being more likely than others... yet we don't all see the information equally and that was part of the reason why you were willing to give me 10:1 odds.
I do agree with bold part of your statement.
The 200 WMA vs Spot price chart is excellent way to see where price is heading.
I would say that we don't know where it is going, but we can come up with some reasonable inferences regarding all that we know, and chart of historical performance (whether spot price and/or the 200-WMA, their relation to one another or other price dynamics charts) are only parts of the way to get some information to formulate reasonable price projection ranges.. that relate to time and price and might ballparkedly get it right or be directionally correct, yet we cannot know the future, even though the future is not random... including even in bitcoin if we go back 5 or 10 years or some other quantity of years.
Some guys ended up being more correct than others by investing into bitcoin, but even the ones who ended up being more correct (and even as more importantly reflected in their actions) still did necessarily know or understand the then future beyond merely assessing of some probabilities regarding various scenarios and some scenarios more correct than others..and even with the passage of time, their believes could be confirmed or denied by subsequent folding out of events..
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