Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

The issue at this point, I think, is that liquidity is pulling both ways. There are fat juicy clusters of bids/asks at 113k-115k and 120k+, respectively. Market wants to chomp chomp it all. Which way? Or, possibly, which way first? If I were Market, I'd go for down first, because if I chomp the upper mouthful first, the lower one might vanish. Not the other way round, I suppose (well - being a near-permabull and all).

People seem to like to say down before up, since it seems so logical, and sure, frequently bitcoin cooperates, yet if we zoom out, bitcoin looks like nearly a straight uppity line, so it can be dangerous to rely in any meaningful way on down before up.

Of course I'm talking from a zoomed-in, very local view (1 week, or a few).

My next buy order is $115k-ish

My buy order was a bit over 115k and it got filled

and then they are largely in increments of every $3,500-ish down.. My next sell order is $124.5k-ish.. so that one barely got missed (by about $1.2k).. which would have caused a buy order at $120k-ish since my buy order increments will start to be every $5k-ish.. so the larger gaps mean less action.. and/or less need for my involvement.

I don't have a proper buy+sell double ladder yet. Just buying dips as it is now. I'm going to sell some, maybe in a larger chunk, very soon now.

Ok. So perhaps you are in the early stages of considering that you have enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin?  For sure, it can be difficult to know if you might not be selling too much too soon... but you been around these here parts long enough that surely it could be in the cards that you could have accumulated enough (since mid 2017, that is 8 years and two full cycles).. which actually seems fair.. 

On my own behalf, I mostly just kept buying until mid-2015 when I determined that I had reached overaccumulation status, but then I think that I was still a bit torn about it, yet as of mid-to-late 2015, I authorized myself to sell on the way up and buy back on the way down, yet I set my orders in such a way that I was not concerned if the BTC price would come back down or not.. so I set the sell orders in such a way to assume that if the BTC price kept going up, I would be o.k. with that kind of an outcome.

I never really did any large chunk sales because I frequently would think that if I made large chunk sales, then I would have been worried that I sold too much too soon.. but maybe that is just me.

Having a gap between accumulating and starting to sell can be another thing to consider, which maybe in some sense, if you start to do some price-based sales on the way up, then those are a bit easier to execute than the time-based sales.. since time based sells may well be selling a chunk of BTC at any time and no matter the price.. which seems to be a bit of a later stage level of overaccumulation as compared with some of the price based sales.. yet either of them can have a bit of a price based component that allows greater level of sales when the BTC price goes up..

there is a transitioning period.. just like we get the sense that the choppers gaps are currently feeling "too big."

The transitioning period is coming for me, very soon. I'm going to pull the FY lever, but I have to train myself a bit. Maybe setting up a sell ladder just to keep my fiat stash wet could be one of the first steps.

Price based sales could be figured out, yet one of the disadvantages is if you start to need cash on a regular basis, then you might have to withdraw periodically.. once a month? once a quarter? a couple times a year? 

Surely if you consider that you reached overaccumulation status, but none of your sales are bringing you out of overaccumulation status then that would be a good place to be... which should mean that your BTC stash is gaining in dollar value greater than the rate that you are cashing it out... which I like to use the 200-WMA to figure out my own limitations in regards to how much I am able to withdraw without overdoing it.. .which of course, I have given examples quite a few times if you might want to consider the extent to which any withdrawal formula that you are planning to carry out is sustainable, or alternatively if you were planning to deplete your principle.

The market corrections that are happening right now are natural, many are taking advantage of the opportunity to buy, I think opportunities should be seized:
Is Bitcoin’s Summer Slowdown a Buying Opportunity?

Adding to this cautious sentiment is Bitcoin’s repeated failure to decisively breach the $122,000 resistance level. The report highlights that technical indicators are softening, and with institutional demand cooling, the market lacks the fuel needed for another immediate rally.

cryptodnes:https://cryptodnes.bg/en/is-bitcoins-summer-slowdown-a-buying-opportunity/
I find this analysis interesting regarding profit-taking by taking advantage of the market:

The net realized profit/loss chart clearly shows strong spikes of profit-taking by investors during price growth phases. There's a high probability we'll see one or two more waves of profit-taking before the price enters a deeper correction.

Each such wave will be accompanied by short-term correction and consolidation, but as long as the net realized profit peaks don't exceed previous extremes or are comparable in volume, the bullish trend remains intact.
Ideally, these healthy pullbacks will allow the market to cool down from excessive overheating and continue moving upward.

x:https://x.com/AxelAdlerJr/status/1948650820196544755

For those who bought at $122k or even $120k, there is now a good opportunity to buy back and get more BTC. Of course, if the price drops a little more, it is totally worth it since the price is around $116.8k.

Sounds retarded to be trying to trade BTC around these prices.  You have one of the best, if not the best, asset in the world, and guys want to try to trade it?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Buddy is done with sales for a while.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Buddy needs to get ready for the weekend.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Buddy is done with sales for a while.

I'll do one BuddyBlocker for you, Phil.  You probably fell asleep, anyhow.  Not Buddy.  You, Phil.

I wonder about Buddy being on a potentially temporary break from bitcoin sales.. fire sales perhaps? There does seem to be support, but yeah we can sometimes start to feel momentum too.. so momentum for down?  is such downity momentum possibly in the cards?

That was a bit of a bounce at right around $114,518 (our current local bottom)... So yeah, a reprieve for now, and it is difficult to know any real reason for such correction, except that bitcoin never goes completely straight up, so frequently there are needs for the breaks in the UPpity, whether for a few days or maybe a few weeks..  

I realized that my buy orders were in the mid $115ks and not in the lower $115ks.. . which either way is o.k. and does not make a lot of difference to me since they are kind of formulaic... and they either fill or not.. so right now next buy order lower $112k, and next sell order is mid $119ks.. and yeah, currently selling almost same dollar value and buying back same dollar value, which largely means a certain portion of extra BTC are accumulated in the process, but a few orders do not make much of a difference, even though 10 orders make more difference.. in the whole scheme of things.. but these days, 10 orders might span over $35k on the way down, yet getting close to spanning over $50k on the way up for 10 sell orders.

It does make a BIGGER difference if the BTC price were to correct like 25% or more, but even that would be a bit of a distraction, since sometimes we will get fairly deep corrections, and they will play out rapidly.  On other occasions, we will get stuck in the downity area for a few weeks or even a couple of months...  

On the way, we may or may not get an interruption of corrections, but yeah, likely the bears would have to get beaten up several times in order to incentivize them to stop placing sell and/or short orders..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[kanftka]

[WatChe]

Rip

Hulk Hogan


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hulk_Hogan

RIP

and thanks for all the entertainment and good memories you provided in wrestling.

You will be badly missed.

No more ripping off yellow muscle shirts   

No more Atomic Leg Drop.

#Nostalgic

[nutildah]

AI-generated ass kissing

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

You brought up a lot of ggod points. This dip around 114k definitely looks like a local bottom bounce. But as we've all seen before, Bitcoin doesn't move in a straight line. A bit of sideways and even a deepper retrace wouldnt be shocking. Especially with some people eager to sell in strength. Fire sales? Maybe. But I think the temporary breaks in an upward trend are where the strong hands Step in.

Your strategy with the staggered buys and sells really makes sense as it's a calm and calculated approach in an emotional market.

I don't want to give a wrong impression to newbies, since I don't claim to be trading, and I believe that selling bitcoin to accumulate bitcoin is a wrong move.

Accordingly, I believe that anyone in their first whole cycle of accumulating bitcoin, likely needs to focus on buying no matter what until they get to overaccumulation status.. which could take 4-10 years or longer, unless you are able to front load your bitcoin investment, then you might be able to reach overaccumulation status faster.

Another thing is that i have been selling bitcoin on the way up since about mid to late 2015, yet I kind of screwed up the end of 2015, so maybe I did not really start selling on the way up until later.. but still my intial plan was only to be able to sell up to 10% for every doubling of the BTC price, and surely over the years I sell way less than 10% for every doubling of the price.

I ONLY started to sell BTC because I had calculated that I had gotten to an overaccumulation status, yet my definition of overaccumulation status was different in 2015 as compared to what it is now.

Guys have to figure out for themselves how much BTC they want/need and how much is enough or more than enough, and I really doubt that it is a good idea to sell bitcoin in order to accumulate bitcoin.

You accumulate bitcoin by buying it through DCA, lump sum and/or buying on the dip, and you likely need to buy persistently, consistently, ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively for a whole cycle or more before you might be able to change your style, unless you are able to front load your investment, as I mentioned earlier.

This kind of system-based DCA+laddered-exit plan can quietly gain while everyone else is trying to time tops and bottoms. Even if each individual fill doesn’t make a massive difference, over 10+ cycles it really starts compounding and showing itself.

I consider DCA to be a good way to get into bitcoin, along with supplementing such strategy with lump sum buying and buying on dips.  I don't really consider DCA to be a good way to exit bitcoin, and I don't even consider exiting bitcoin to be a good idea, even though I do believe in sustainable withdrawal that can be either price based and/or time based.  I have a thread on the sustainable withdrawal topic, which also I do not consider to apply unless a guy had first reached overaccumulation status..

And yes, The corrections of 25%+ can shake he tree really hard but like you said its part of the process. Whether we get a V-shape pattern or grind down steady these phases will work to reset leverage and get rid of weak hands.

In the end it's still a game of patience and positioning. The bears might feel bold for a bit but they'll over stay their welcome.

Of course, historically bitcoin has had quite wild and deep correction periods, even during bull cycles, so frequently the bears will shake as many weak hands as they can, and sure at some point, they may weill end up overdoing it, and there are no more weak hands to shake, so they can end up not being able to recuperate whatever sales they had made in order to drive down the prices for as long as they could and as far as they could, and at some point, there just aren't any more sellers, and some bears might end up overdoing it or even shorting during the recovery but the BTC price just continues to recovery and wreck short after short after short.

AI-generated ass kissing

Hm?  That could be.  I already responded, so I will leave my response, as I already wrote it.

[nutildah]

How could you not understand that you're being sucked up to for merits by now by people who have never actually bought bitcoin and never intend on it. You've been doing it for years. Others see you meriting suck-up shitposts, and that encourages them to also suck up to you. Its a vicious cycle. You're basically enabling the next generation of beggars, encouraging them to perfect the art of ass kissing instead of learn anything else whatsoever. Do you have zero introspective ability?

This is the entire reason they are here, is because you merited this post, which was a response to you:

You brought up a great point and I agree...
...
I also liked how you mentioned the importance of flexibility in making decisions.
...

The other stuff they write is just a regurgitation of what you've already written a hundred times. They write it because they know its in alignment with your own beliefs, not because they actually believe it.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

So when do we think the next breakout to the upside is going to happen?
We seem to have been stuck in a tight range of $115,000 to $120,000 for a while, even though it hasn’t been long at all. I must admit, I didn’t enjoy the dump during the last 24 hrs.

I think once we chip away at and eventually pierce the ATH of $123,000 we will run for a while, possibly touching $140,000. Maybe we stay in this range for another 2-3 weeks before we explode upwards.
The only thing that’s certain is nothing is stopping this train from hitting between $150,000 and $200,000 before the end of the year.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

How could you not understand that you're being sucked up to for merits by now by people who have never actually bought bitcoin and never intend on it. You've been doing it for years. Others see you meriting suck-up shitposts, and that encourages them to also suck up to you. Its a vicious cycle. You're basically enabling the next generation of beggars, encouraging them to perfect the art of ass kissing instead of learn anything else whatsoever. Do you have zero introspective ability?

This is the entire reason they are here, is because you merited this post, which was a response to you:

You brought up a great point and I agree...
...
I also liked how you mentioned the importance of flexibility in making decisions.
...

The other stuff they write is just a regurgitation of what you've already written a hundred times. They write it because they know its in alignment with your own beliefs, not because they actually believe it.

I can conclude that JJG likes to being ass-kissed. Who would have thought that our gay dancer avatar is into that stuff...  

But seriously, I think all your points are valid. While JJG is free to spend his merits as he likes, he also gives a lot to beggars and by that is breeding an ever new generation of merit farmers who only write to please him.

I cannot imagine that he hasn't understood that yet. I think he is rather working on increasing the number of active users on this forum, whose design, to be honest, is not too appealing to newcomers... I have actually friends who wouldn't read the WO because of the old design that doesn't work well on smartphones...

[Shawheer Khan]

How could you not understand that you're being sucked up to for merits by now by people who have never actually bought bitcoin and never intend on it. You've been doing it for years. Others see you meriting suck-up shitposts, and that encourages them to also suck up to you. Its a vicious cycle. You're basically enabling the next generation of beggars, encouraging them to perfect the art of ass kissing instead of learn anything else whatsoever. Do you have zero introspective ability?

This is the entire reason they are here, is because you merited this post, which was a response to you:

You brought up a great point and I agree...
...
I also liked how you mentioned the importance of flexibility in making decisions.
...

The other stuff they write is just a regurgitation of what you've already written a hundred times. They write it because they know its in alignment with your own beliefs, not because they actually believe it.

Upgrade your gears fuckass,