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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26836555 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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August 16, 2025, 10:01:14 PM


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August 16, 2025, 10:27:31 PM

Some interesting thoughts…

Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average just crossed $100K for the first time.

In 2013, 2017, & 2021, Bitcoin reached 2.4x the 200-day simple moving average during its peak (according to Grok).

The average time to reach the ATH after the halving in those years was 478 days (531 if you exclude 2013).

It has been 483 days since the last halving.

This seems to suggest we will be at nearly a quarter million dollars per Bitcoin sometime around the end of September or beginning of October (removing the days after halving for 2013). Is FOMO right around the corner?

Just before my 42th bday that would be nice.
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August 16, 2025, 11:00:20 PM

Oh Gawd:  I drafted another response within another locked thread... Here it is.

2; Investment has zero risk but demands your patient to get you rich or successful probably in a long term.
I would say that it depends on the kind of asset you're investing in, in a case like this you're supposed to be specific about the investment you're talking about, Because if you talk about investment you should know that both shitcoin investment is included, and of which you and I know that shitcoin investment is a very risky investment. And that same risk is also apply in other investment for example bitcoin investment because there's no guarantee about the outcome, all we do is just to hope for a better result at the end of our investment, so telling them that crypto investment has zero risk is like given them a guarantee.
Everything has risk if we talk about investment. Maybe we have a mitigation for that, but still though, we can't really go out there and think that there is no risk at all. Even in Bitcoin, specially in the early days, those who didn't understand and then sold everything are now regretting their decision.

So there is always this risk involved here. Maybe others really knows how to control and have plan B. But for others who are still new in this market, they will have to go and get that experience first before they become successful. Everyone goes on the growing pains and I will say that it's a normal process.

I am not sure if I would characterize the risk of selling too much too soon as a meaningful risk, even though you are bringing up a good point about the risk of not being in bitcoin.

So if we are living our regular lives and we have a reasonable income and various investments in our investment portfolio, and likely we are making choices about the various assets that we can invest into, and our choosing to not be in bitcoin is likely an unreasonable risk to take. especially if we have an investment timeline that is at least 4 years or more... So then our more important question would regard how much to be in bitcoin rather than whether to be in bitcoin... My usual recommendation is 5% to 25%, yet surely there are plenty of folks who are even more whimpy than 5%, and prior to 2020, I used to recommend between 1% and 10%, yet I think that times have changed ever since 2020.

So yeah, guys still will choose less than 5% and even worse yet guys will choose less than 1%, such as zero, which truly seems problematic for anyone who might have an investment timeline that is at least 4 years.  If you have an investment timeline that is less than 4 years, the I have a harder time recommending investing into bitcoin.. since with bitcoin, I consider less than 4 years to be trading rather than investing, and I don't recommend trading bitcoin, even though surely there are some guys who choose to trade bitcoin.

I suppose we could also consider risk in terms of what else we might have in our holdings.  If we don't have any investments in our holdings then presumptively all that we have is cash, so then if we are buying some bitcoin to offset the cash that we hold, then that idea of offsetting cash does not really seems very risky because it is merely offsetting the cash. The bitcoin has different attributes as compared with the cash, and I suppose if we have investments other than cash, then we compare investing into bitcoin with the other investments, so then assessments of risk are relative to the other options that we have to put the value that we end up putting into bitcoin.

I think that in many countries people have been reluctant to hold their own local currencies in large quantities because it loses value, even if interest can be earned with it... .. so surely bitcoin would likely be considering in comparison to local currencies and/or even the dollar as a place that a person might want to hold value, since some folks choose to hold dollars rather than their own currency - likely with the expectation that the dollar will hold value better than their local currency, even though these days many folks recognize and appreciate that the dollar is not necessarily holding its value very well, either, especially in longer periods of time and in larger quantities..

2; Investment has zero risk but demands your patient to get you rich or successful probably in a long term.
Let them decide and make wise or foolish decisions of themselves.
I disagree with this 2nd pointer. Investment has always riskand will not close to zero. Yes beung an investor needs a lot of patient but it doesnt mean that you domt have risk, theres always a chance that even you are long holder the result might not resultes into gains. Some loeses too even they arr patieny enough to hold their asset cause the chance of losing is also there not just winning.
There is no house edge in bitcoin investment so where would the barrier to cause us loose come from if at all we don't panic to sell out of Fomo or emergency needs? Maybe I am missing out here.
Let's assume you have a goal to invest $2000 in Bitcoin for two years with the aim that by the end of those two years, your investment should multiply and you go home with profits. We all already know bitcoin is a volatile asset. What if, at the end of those two years, bitcoin's price dips and you are faced with losses or very little profit, making you wish you had invested in something else?
And  let's say since bitcoin market can not be predicted, it will be wrong of anyone in even in the short term plans to just say, okay. I will have this hold for 2 years and then I will sell. Does that alone not sound like the investor is trying to predict the market likely to figure what the price will be at that time and be expecting profits just like the traders will decide before placing their trades? There you literally get yourself into the risk of selling at lost.

Just as I stated earlier, you stay risk free from bitcoin investment if and only you you have patient probably in the long term. That is why it is indeed in need for us to have reliable source of income so that we don't sell out of panic or emergency needs.
So if you are abided and you have a 2 years plans and needed to sell after the year but due to the volatile market at your point of selling might be at lost, of course you can push ahead to exercise more patient. Your money is not lost. Only that the market liquidation has not been to yield you interest.

I will grant you that there are some folks who think that having a plan to be in bitcoin for 2 years is investing rather than trading because they consider the timeline to be long.  I would consider anything less than  4 years to be trading, and I even consider anything 4-10 years as a variation of trading too if the getting in and out is not due to age and/or health factors... since my own sense is that bitcoin is a life time investment, even though a person can start to engage in sustainable withdraw of it once he reaches an over accumulation status.

Regarding your point of the guy who intends to get in and out within around 2 years who might get trapped in his trade because he ONLY wants to cash out of his trade at a profit, so his initial intention might have had been to ONLY stay in for around 2 years, but he might end up in the trade for longer since he might have to wait for the BTC price to go back up to a place that is higher than his initial purchase price(s).

2; Investment has zero risk but demands your patient to get you rich or successful probably in a long term.
Everything has risk, and difference is only more or less risk.

If investment is zero-risk, there would be no saying like "Invest what you can afford to lose".
If you understand the saying, you know there is risk of investment including Bitcoin investment.
I can equally say the phrase is wrong because your possibilities to loose lies on you because should understand the market is volatile before you can invest. There is absolutely no gambling there to find necessity of that term "Invest with what you can afford to loose".
So there is nothing to fear about in investing in bitcoin rather you only have to checkmate on your emotions and your bankrolls with how sustainable or unsustainable it can carry you in a period of time. So when you panic or sell at lost it is up to you and not the market.

So I take that term to be applicable in gambling or any of those prediction market like trading which once you looses you can't retrieve back your money unlike investment that at Dip or Bear when it affects your holding, definitely it will rise again on the bullish.
Instead, let the term be rephrased to " invest with what you can afford to let go in the long term"

I continue to wonder why some guys cannot learn and/or accept the meaning of the expression to not invest more than you can afford to lose.  That is true for investing and trading and any place where we put or decide to hold our money, and surely assets have more likelihood of going to zero than currencies, and an overwhelming majority of currencies are programed to lose value with time, that is how the various governments and banks take money from people without imposing a tax.  Some assets/currencies have higher chances to go to zero than others or even to go to zero in a violent way, including bitcoin.  Of course, with the passage of time, with bitcoin, we can gain more and more confidence that it won't violently go to zero (or to some ungodly and surprisingly low price in a short period of time).

That second phrase that you use is retarded - especially since it means almost the same thing: "invest with what you can afford to let go in the long term"..  I think people usually rephrase it to be something like:  "invest with what you cannot afford to let go in the long term," which is retarded in a different kind of a way to say that they believe that there is some guarantee that their investment will not lose value in the long term.. so somehow magically their investment is saved merely because it is for the long term rather than the short term, which is not true, but they want to believe such a thing? which means that they are begging to get reckt or to have their expectations squashed at some various points in their lives if they believe that the future is guaranteed in any kind of way that is material to investing, whether bitcoin or otherwise.. the dollar, for example, is guaranteed to lose value over time, absent some changing of the way that it is programmed.. which is hard to see such a change happening..
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August 16, 2025, 11:03:32 PM

Well tomorrow makes 13 years here.

I certainly did not believe we would ever make 124k back in 2012.

I also would not have believed Trump winning not one but 2 out of 3 elections.

So  I guess the lizard people are going to be exposed soon.


https://www.amazon.com/gp/video/detail/B0CV6XYSR7/ref=atv_sr_fle_c_Tn74RA_1_1_1?




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August 17, 2025, 03:01:53 AM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

What's up fam, it's been a while.

I've treated myself (that's the WO-sign we used a few years back, right?).



Well done.



Yes, that’s the infamous WO hand sign.

Congrats, but I am not going to drop 2 btc on a car, even a nice one.
As M.Saylor says..."your "Ferrari" could cost a billion $ later on" (probably a "slight" exaggeration  Cheesy).
I'll sell:
1. fiat
2. shitcoins
3. stocks (in this order) to get a Porsche, but I never even considered 911..a thought crossed my mind to buy a Macan, maybe.
We shall see.
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August 17, 2025, 04:25:28 AM

Buddy be blocked
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August 17, 2025, 04:40:15 AM
Last edit: August 17, 2025, 06:37:18 PM by Biodom
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

It seems that MSTR premium is "just" 40 32.4% rn.
A bit low, imho.

Then, again, some people (Chanos) think that it ought to have "no premium".
M. Saylor thinks that premium should be 150-300% (X2.5-4X).
I'd say that at least 70-80% premium is justified, imho.
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August 17, 2025, 07:23:05 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (10), fillippone (6)

I saw this today, fond memories of past stories here on the WO.

Spazio Cruising comes to mind
Fond memory of the WO tales

Must have been a few years back, 2019?

have been Spazio cruising this Friday, 3 friends 3 Spazio's and 1 guy with another scooter... Love those Spazio's
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August 17, 2025, 07:43:26 AM

BTC Bears RIP. Happy Sunday believers  Wink

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saw this one on reddit lmao.
They never understand.
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