Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Feeling a little concerned this morning but here’s a bit of HOPIUM for us gang -


@CryptoJelleNL
Seven years worth of resistance being turned into support 👀

https://x.com/cryptojellenl/status/1957388408415817968

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Rgram]

@CryptoJelleNL
Seven years worth of resistance being turned into support 👀

https://x.com/cryptojellenl/status/1957388408415817968

We moved into a phase where we have both Bitcoin treasury and development company taking up the frontlines to Bitcoin investments, not just having to bring in the big bucks but are indeed granting interviews and being very open on their perspectives and plans for Bitcoin. It’s only normal that we see Bitcoin chart a new course..

The momentum sustained by the bears through $118k through $115k with all its long candles has been lost about the $115k price range and the bulls are gathering a little momentum to push back so, we might not find price dump below $110k within the week before it pushes back up in the worst case scenario.

Change directions

Seconded

[SaintFlow]

@CryptoJelleNL made me LOL

long term the money being printed will wash these rookie numbers away

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   910606  (13 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.8280%  (1391 / 1393.40 expected, 2.4 behind

Previous Difficulty:   127620086886391.8                            
Current Difficulty:   129435235580344.8                            
Next Difficulty:   between 129391490993129 and 129395694101695
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.0338% and -0.0305%
Previous Retarget:   August 8, 2025 at 4:33 PM  (+1.4223%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 5:05 PM  (in 4d 8h 17m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 5:08 PM  (in 4d 8h 20m 46s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 31m 24s and 14d 0h 34m 44s

commericial miners are doing steady support.



if you think of them as buyers. 129t diff is  about 1000 eh

or 1,000,000 ph since 4 s21 pros are 1 ph

the network has 4,000,000 miners at 4,500 a piece or  18,000,000,000

18 billion in gear
 at least 1 billion in infrastructure
plus power cost spent

4 million x 3.5 = 14 million kwatts an hour
that is about 700,000 an hour at 5 cent power
or 16,800,000 a day[/b]

all of that is a huge dca move on btc via mining

it serves to support the bottom price for btc

as long as they act as the 300 against the bears we will hang in there until the bear say fuck this lets go look for some salmon.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

thank you for the spacer buddy.

look at the difficulty chart over the last year and you will see we had the usual 26 2 week jumps and what is really interest is every drop in the diff was followed by a rise.

with only one exception.

That is different we never had a year period of time with only one double dip in diff










oh 16.8 x 365 = 6,132  billion in power or more yearly for miners to mine

and the hash rate went up 60%  which is around 7 billion in gear added over the last year.


so over 13 billion in funds poured in by miners in the last year. to mine 170,820 coins or around 19.6 billion in coin

[d_eddie]

Regardless if mining makes the price or price makes the mining, I like Phil's contributions: An old school miner offering his perspective on the matter.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Regardless if mining makes the price or price makes the mining, I like Phil's contributions: An old school miner offering his perspective on the matter.

It's the foundation and stabilizer force.

Dca and hold also stabilizer.

And trading degenerate speculating gives us up ticks to the moon..

Understanding btc reserves

Government hodl

Saylor hodl

Blackrock hodl

It a challenge.

Oh as a total and complete aside.

My wife has a totally "safe" tsp  which gets around 4% so it loses a bit each year.

Orange man will allow a BTC fund. To fed workers or retirees.

So Pretend my wife has 300k getting 4%=12,000  I have convinced her to take 25% of the interest earned ie 3,000 so she can have $$$ in BTC

This is a big deal as the federal tsp and/or 401k equivalent has trillions in it.

This should help support BTC price bigly.

IT ALSO should allow for a large dip buy if BTC drops enough.

Do not worry about these numbers 115k there are tons of funds waiting to go into btc.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

"Consequences, schmonsequences, as long as I’m rich."

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@ColinTCrypto
BTC Bottom in Today & Next High Confidence BTC Move Up Around Aug 23rd - Triple Confluence

This is another, fun, short-term Bitcoin price prediction using the triple confluence of Global M2, Gold and Inverse DXY, each shifted forward by 82 days.

Doing so last time correctly called a move up in advance (see the post below).

This seems to indicate a high probability of two things:
1. The bottom could be in today (Aug 18th)
2. The next, predictably, high-confidence move up will be around Aug 23rd.

The second point is the highest confidence as all 3 metrics show it. The first point is lesser confidence as it looks like there could be a few sideways days ahead from the metrics, but roughly speaking, the bottom seems to be near.

This "triple confluence" is an experimental thing I'm doing to see how it works out at predicting somewhat short term moves. Read the quoted post below for more context and data.

https://x.com/colintcrypto/status/1957446652572348610


The post he referenced below was -


@ColinTCrypto
Next $BTC move-up prediction: August 9-13th

This is an EXPERIMENT to see if 3 charts (Global M2, Inverse DXY, and Gold) act as confluence, and if they can predict *when* BTC's next short term price move up will begin for BTC.

Pictured:
  • Global M2 [yellow line]
  • Inverse DXY [blue line]
  • Gold [pink line]

Each was offset by 82 days to match the most recent price moves. This offset was chosen purely visually and for recency. It was overfitted on purpose. For a longer term view (which is not what we're looking at here) an offset of about 90 has a stronger average correlation.

I want to be very clear: this is just an attempt at guessing the next short term move based on short term confluence. This is NOT intended to give some big macro picture. This is an EXPERIMENT to see if these three charts can offer us increased odds of determining the next short term price move correctly. Let's watch and see. 🍿

https://x.com/colintcrypto/status/1952730132545732914

[Mahiyammahi]

What kind of odds are you thinking that $100k to $103k might be touched upon? 80% or greater?  And, did you say that there was a reason for the dump? or just part of a "waves" theory?

My odds are here greater than 70% , yeah the waves theory. We should expect the dump. Since market was recovering and money was also shifting it's gear , we saw a massive volume and money sure into ETH , other than Bitcoin. So if we were to expect a green market a correction should be made here. Although if BTC recovers $120k my theory will be invalid . We all know this year market was so uncertain and uncertainty can happens. Day trader's rn looking for a correction on BTC.

[Xtraordinarious]

I want to be very clear: this is just an attempt at guessing the next short term move based on short term confluence. This is NOT intended to give some big macro picture. This is an EXPERIMENT to see if these three charts can offer us increased odds of determining the next short term price move correctly. Let's watch and see. 🍿

I can see here, and understand that these three charts can do something incredible for short-term, correct direction changes.

But this kind of triple confluence analysis really looks great! It is an innovative idea to offset all three of them together: M2, inverse DXY, and GlD. The way the previous prediction matched the timing was quite impressive. If there is another move-up around August 23rd, it will be like thinking seriously about this model.

Although it matched last time, I don't know if it will match this time, but according to their predictions, it may match, according to the discussion. Therefore, even though it started as an experiment, it works excitingly. I'm keeping an eye on the next update to see what happens. But I hope to get some good news.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

What kind of odds are you thinking that $100k to $103k might be touched upon? 80% or greater?  And, did you say that there was a reason for the dump? or just part of a "waves" theory?

My odds are here greater than 70% , yeah the waves theory. We should expect the dump. Since market was recovering and money was also shifting it's gear , we saw a massive volume and money sure into ETH , other than Bitcoin. So if we were to expect a green market a correction should be made here. Although if BTC recovers $120k my theory will be invalid . We all know this year market was so uncertain and uncertainty can happens. Day trader's rn looking for a correction on BTC.

So far you look really bad as it reversed direction as if it read your post and said let's fuck with your head.


Myself

Dca via mining
Sell ladder up 125k to 301k
Buy ladder down 109k to 74k

And occasionally buy a dip piece if I happen to be at the pc.  I do this on PayPal.

Yeah it kills you on fees and on actual buy sell price.

But it is a perfect kyc with all funds accounted for.
It would allow me to do a larger sale with out worrying about proving anything.

Hoping for the best as time moves on.

I rather do sales in 2026 then in 2025.

Due to New Jersey property tax laws for seniors taking a profit this year cost me my tax exemption on my house.

NEXT year it wont

[Leahized]

kids are selling lemonade made of home. Interesting is accepting Bitcoin as a payment.

They really smart kids




Their thoughts have surprised me. I noticed it later.

[cygan]

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