Of course your investment portion is going to be doing fine. I doubt that you are really benefiting as much as you have convinced yourself into believing with the trading portion, and you likely could reduce that trading portion to much smaller numbers, perhaps less than 10% of the size of your bitcoin investment stash, or maybe you could go a bit higher with the percent that you allow for fucking around.. but not 50%.. that is too much... since it seems to be a likely losing proposition the way you seem to be currently doing it and just assuming that you are benefiting from it...even though you seem to be fantasizing otherwise with your likely sales through the years that would have had been way better off to just let them ride in bitcoin (and to compound in value.. .) .
Well said, and to be honest I can't disagree but fully agree with whatever you said in the post. Although, I've been taking some profits here and there from trading but surely they reward from accumulating Bitcoin and holding it for years is always going to win no matter if I make whatever from trading. DCA+DIP buying is safe as compared to trading but to be honest I've done DCA with the trading part as well when my trades went negative, however to be honest, Bitcoin always recovers and that's the best thing about it.
For sure with bitcoin investing, I am suggesting 4-10 years or longer, so measuring over short periods you might have some of those short periods where your trading had played out better than investing, yet it still is not likely to outperform bitcoin investing that just involves ongoing buying, weekly or whenever you get your income to mostly be erroring on the side of accumulating and building up your stash.
There could be times where you hold back some of your weekly buys for buying dips, since you might consider the BTC prices to be too frothy, and sure it could b possible that soe of those kinds of tailored buys end up getting you more BTC for the same quantity of dollars.. and yeah, you might even have large proportion of your trades that are profitable, yet if you are trading, inevitably you likely end up selling too much too soon and the BTC price keeps going up, even after you seld several times expecting to buy back and maybe you even do not buy back in ways that make substantial profits, so you also might end up not buying as much as you would if you were more focused on ongoing buying.
I have no clue about your actual budget to be able to try to show you with numbers, so you just have to work out those calculations yourself, including what I had mentioned about holding back from some of your budget in order to get the money that you need or want to spend rather than buying too much bitcoin with money that you want to use for your expenses and then selling them when the pump is sufficient enough for you to feel that you got enough profits from such trades.
Sometimes it can be difficult to measure the difference since you might have been in and out and in several times, and then you might not be keeping very close track of how much you put in and how much you took out for spending versus rolling that money back into your trades.
Many of us were here when Bitcoin was in its $20k's and I remember when it went to $40k some people got surprised while some people had firm beliefs that it could do much better in years than that $40k or $50k whatsoever. And, the later ones were perfectly right because the ones who bought the crazy dip of previous bear run which took Bitcoin's price all the way down to $16k's were the people who really had saved money for that DIP. I believe most of people who are into investing had started their accumulation when Bitcoin went to $28k or below that, and those type of dips will not come now unless someone is just dreaming.
I am not sure if I buy your way of framing these matters.
Even highly convicted people either run out of money and the have to buy by either scrambling to go through other resources, or they just wait for more income to come in or they just HODL through the low price periods. I think that many of them largely ran out of money by the time the sub $28k prices start to come.. Many were expecting $100k and then we are stuck at $28k that came initially from the Tera Luna blow up, yet contagion kept blowing up.
Yeah, sure there are still some guys with money left, but they are also afraid and not wanting to buy when they are not sure that the falling knife is done falling, and the BTC price was not even supposed to hit the 200-WMA - which was then at $22k, but it hit $22k and kept going down. It took a couple of months for the momentum to reverse, even once it got below $22k.. it just stayed below $22k - for several months.. largely starting in June 2022.. and then getting even worse in November 2022 when FTX revealed that it did not have hardly any BTC.
Almost every crash is like that, and yeah, sure there are some folks holding both BTC and dollars, but if they are convicted in BTC, they had largely already bought back when the prices were in the upper $30ks, prior to the Tera Luna news drop.. and .. yeah, there had been a similar drop in mid-2021.. the first rise to $64k-ish and then a drop to around $28k-ish, and that one held and so then the second testing of $69k was supposed to bring us to $100k.. and sure maybe not $100k but also not ONLY to $69k.. so there were quite a few expectations that they run was not over yet.. and perhaps folks were not really convinced that it was over until the Tera Luna news.. .. but yeah sure there were a few, such as LFC (shout out), who sold in the $50ks on the way down the second time, but even he ONLY sold 25% based on a certai lacking of confidence in regards to his own making a mistake with selling too much of us stash if the BTC price had resumed up rather than actually correcting yet even he probably did a vast majority of his buying back before the price even touched on $22k, even though he may well held some back for further buys based on how crazy the drop ended up being and based on cascading exchange (3rd party custodian) failings, who had been gambling with BTC that were supposed to be custodied for clients.. but clients were also wanting yield.. and yeah whatever a bunch of messed up situations in which there were not enough BTC to go around.
I'm pretty sure the market will be bearish after a few months and then there's chance that Bitcoin might go down again but not to the levels of $20k's or not even to $50k's again but possibly there's chance that it might dip back to $70k's and that's going to be the best place to buy the dips again and accumulate more than what one can at the current market value of Bitcoin when it's over $115k.
I suppose that you have to have that kind of thinking about downside scenarios if you are going to trade.
I would be willing to bet that BTC prices are never going below $75k again, even though right now the 200-WMA is at $51,760 and during a bull market the BTC price does not tend to get within 25% of the 200-WMA, and during a bear market the 200-WMA can be breached and even gone below for quite a while, so surely it is possible that the 200-WMA might not move up fast enough to cause sub $75k to be out of the question... yet I still would be willing to bet, for funzies.
Regarding other trading scenarios, sure it is likely that you could be correct 80% of the time or greater, and still end up in a worse position due to your trading...
And, you might even be very good at various calls... . which remains a big so what for me in terms of my ongoing thought that you (and others similarly situated) are likely way better off to not be playing roulette with the best asset known to mankind.. even though sure, you can do what you like.
By the way, I do fuck around calling various prices that I think will or will not happen, yet my system does not change very much (except slightly on the margins) based on what I think that BTC price may or may not do.. If it is going up I am making relatively small sells.. less than 3% for every doubling of the price, and if it drops I am using the money that I had generated in the sales to buy back. Yeah, I might mess around with whether the sells are larger than the buys or the buys are larger than the sells or I might mess around with the spreads and/or the increments, but overall they are non-emotional and non-predictive.. .either the buy/sell orders get filled or they don't... and yeah if we are sitting in the same price range for 6-12 months and I get antsie about wanting to make some kind of a purchase, but I don't have enugh cash, I will just shave off whatever I need, whether the price was $55k in late 2024 or whether it is $115k right now or if it happens to be $185k in 9 months from now.
I know there's much possibility that Bitcoin might not go below $100k's again even in the worst phase of the bear market but again the ones who're into investing know the power of patience and they really wait for the right moment and right opportunity.
The odds for sub $100k are way greater than the odds for sub $75k.. so the level of unrealism in regards to prices that guys are expecting to buy can be really unrealistic and even if they are realistic, they still might not end up happening, then the guy had either sold too much too soon or he failed to buy enough... so he is spending a lot of time waiting rather than buying bitcoin and getting his holdings to a place that he can get ahead of the ratt race and stop fucking around trying to guess the direction of the price.
I really want to see Bitcoin at $200k in this cycle and if that happens then I'll be very happy but even then I won't be selling that 50% which I've accumulated with the help of DCA+DIP buying. In fact I won't be selling those for at least 10 to 20 years depending on my patience or value of Bitcoin after 10 years.
I already know that. You already told me that you were only selling with the trading portion. So you largely did not answer my question and you perhaps even evaded it.
My question was in regards to your trading stash. How much bitcoin you till going to have in your trading stash if the BTC price goes to $300k?
If you have less than 50% of the 50%, then that means you sold more than 25% of your stash. I am imagining that you are not going to have any left to sell if the BTC price goes to $300k... because you would have sold most of them and perhaps even all of them on the way up to $200k, so largely between $200k and $300k you don't got jack shit in your trading stash, and you are largely telling yourself, at least I have my investment stash... And, sure, it is better than nothing to still have 50% of your stash rather than having had sold it, and like I said with me.. I have my own faults, I will probably have something close to 97% of my stash when we get to $500k.. even thoug surely I know that I have already preauthorized myself to be able to sell 10% for every doubling, but I have not employed that option ever, even though I was probably quite a bit closer in 2015/2016 when I started, but even then, I had issues in regards to my ongoing reluctance to sell too much cornz too soon.
Let's say if in 10 years Bitcoin reaches $5M per coin then surely I'll sell 20-30% of my stash,
You are referring to your investment stash.
That is a lot to sell, since you already have been being whimpy in buying (meaning the portion that you have been putting into your investment versus trading it).
But, yeah, if you have already worked out your math, then you are likely in a much better position than folks who still are not even buying bitcoin...or those who are trading more than you or even buying more whimpy than you. I know that you don't consider yourself to be whimpy, and that is fine. Whimpy is a relative term.
and by then I might not need to do any type of DCA or dip buying but as long as Bitcoin is under $1M there's always going to be opportunity of buying the dips.
I hate to argue about the past, but you can change your ways at any time and start focusing on investing into bitcoin rather than fucking around trading.. (or at least cutting down your trading amount to less than 10% the size of your bitcoin holdings so that you can still gamble and have fun, since that seems to be what you want to do). In other words, there is no need to be fucking around with inferior practices, such as trading.
Even for yourself, a fairly conservative investment into bitcoin of [urlhttps://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin/?start_date=2016-08-05&finish_date=2025-04-11®ular_investment=100¤cy_code=USD&investment_interval=weekly&exchange_fee=2]$100 per week for the past 8-ish years since your forum registration date until present would have resulted in right around less than $47.4k invested and about 8.82 BTC.[/url]
Currently that
8.82 BTC would be a bit more than $1 million spot price value and more importantly a $456,519 200-WMA valuation.. which would mean a withdrawal rate of about $45.6k per year or $3,800 per month into perpetuity... and yeah you could keep adding to that stash or you could just let time pass, and [urlhttps://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg65653923#msg65653923]by about late 2026, that 8.82-ish BTC would be enough to support an income of $80k per year in perpetuity[/url].
Of course, you can do whatever you like, yet with bitcoin, I don't see why there are needs for any of us to be cashing out large chunks of our BTC at a time, sine we can largely just figure out a way to withdraw from it in perpetuity at a sustainable rate and at an amount that is comfortable to us.. once we get our BTC to that size...
And, yeah if you have not been stacking enough BTC, it is largely due to your fucking around with trading and interferring with your own abilities to empower yourself because you are using inferior techniques.
I'm not talking about small dips but the major dips, I don't really give much attention to small dips as market can recover from those dips within days to weeks but mostly I wait for major dips that take place once in a week rarely, sometimes once in a month, and most probably once in 2-4 months, and that approach is a working approach. I know there's no alternative of what you've said, if I had followed your advice and strategy the way you shared here then that might have given me more accumulation and profits, but I hope in future or from now on I will think about going for DCA+DIP buying for long term holding and let that 50% for trading as those are enough for my trading needs and going 100% into investing from now own can be much helpful for me.
Waiting for lower dips is just waiting for something that might not happen, as compared to just regularly buying...
and, second, I am not sure about your second point about going 100% into investing? You could go from 50% t0 90% and still play around with 10%.. but yeah, I hardly recommend trading as a way to get to overaccumulation status. Once you get to over accumulation status, then you likely increase your options.
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