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September 05, 2025, 05:47:34 AM *
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Poll
Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26835585 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
ChartBuddy
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August 24, 2025, 08:01:14 PM


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blomen
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August 24, 2025, 08:05:31 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (5), OgNasty (2)

this smells like a liquidation hunt.



the price fell back to 110k and a significant amount of long positions were liquidated. preparing for a new rally?
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August 24, 2025, 08:13:07 PM
Merited by gallianooo (3)

Rate cuts didn’t impress I guess
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August 24, 2025, 08:24:39 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Coming from another new account's perspective... (who may have been guarding this wall for a lot longer than most) You have to take the OG's skepticism with a grain of salt; we have seen a lot worse attempts in here to farm merit, and our own personal AI bot as well as a few others may be a bit careless giving it away as it's only merit lol...

You could quell their worries by posting a pic, but I personally don't care what a few people think, especially if they are wrong!!! Again, with that being said, you have to understand why some are skeptical; we have seen it and so much more for honestly less at this point.


On the price... Hell of a dump in a few minutes, but it's all just noise on this continued journey.

CCMF Laura!!!


(As always, thanks to everyone here for providing me with daily shite to digest!)
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August 24, 2025, 08:43:00 PM

PANIK

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August 24, 2025, 09:32:03 PM


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Buddy again, and again you are giving me motivation to have taste of these dips please stop this and allow to his $130K.
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August 24, 2025, 09:57:08 PM
Last edit: August 25, 2025, 01:34:08 AM by JayJuanGee
Merited by vapourminer (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

Small airplanes and boats.
You buy, you cry, then you sell.
Same with women, too!

Consequences come,
Schmonsequences they become,
As long as I’m rich!

There may be some of us. .. not going to mention names, who did not quite get to Mindrust levels of 10 BTC in 2020. .and surely even 10 BTC in 2020 seemed reasonably achievable for guys who had been largely accumulating prior to March 2020. and maybe even if they had taken 3-4 years of accumulation to get themselves to whatever stash level that they had in March 2020.

Even the guys bordering on 10 BTC might be starting to feel rich.. and yeah, maybe some of them (us) might have had not quite been at 10 BTC in 2020, but they (we) continued to accumulate bitcoin through subsequent years to maybe bring us from 7 BTC to something that is currently approaching 8 or 9 bitcoin, and I am not even proclaiming myself to be in such a club, even though we can see that there are quite a few normie guys (and even guys in relatively low income countries) who could have gotten themselves to such 8 to 9 BTC status in regards to mostly starting to accumulate BTC 4 years prior to March 2020, and they did not end up mindrusting in March-ish of 2020.

I understand that even you AlcoHoDL seem to be somewhat skeptical of my own reassessment of entry-level fuck you status being currently sustainable at 15.4561 BTC  (in current times, it is going down (becoming less) by right around 0.011 BTC (1,100,000 satoshis) (per day)**, so some conservative guy like you might feel better to have a greater cushion and you might want to double such characterization of entry-level fuck you status to be something like 30.9122 BTC.  That should be holy sheit more than enough, and yeah, I understand that guys are not even wanting to pull the fuck you lever without some kind of a bitcoin cushion, and guys are not necessarily single income and without expense complications, maybe some of them self-imposed..

Edited to add footnote: **By the way.. there is a bit of a WOW factor here, if you think about the matter of of the formula reducing the quantity of BTC needed to sustain $80k per year of income by 0.011 fewer BTC per day, if you multiply that by 365, that is a reduction of about 4 BTC in the following year, if the rate were to be consistent for the upcoming year.  Of course, the rate is likely to reduce (since the 200-WMA is ongoingly moving up at a lower and lower rate, even though even the 200-WMA has its spurts upwards).  At the same time, even a reduction of 3 BTC within the upcoming year is a whole hell of a lot fewer bitcoin needed in order to ongoingly sustain an $80k per year withdrawal rate - and I am even assuming that once withdrawals begin, then each year the dollar based withdrawal rate can be increased by 7%, so the withdrawal amount for year 2 would be $85.6k, for example.

yet still not necessarily easy to get out of since as we get older we are likely to develop some kinds of baggages that don't allow us to attempt to completely fly like a free bird... by the way, I think that it was yesterday that I was watching the waves of the ocean crashing, and I kept thinking that the were so BIG and so powerful as I was watching them. .I was even considering to go in, but yeah, also considering that it can sometimes be a lot of challenge to deal with waves, especially when they were coming in an area that was mixed with both beach and rocks (cliffs) that would sometimes cause the waves to come in straight and then other times to cause them to go in a non-straight direction and with power.. and so surely every once in a while the waves were so big to formulate really large crests that were like a tunnel that we sometimes see the surfers going through. .but these ones not quite that big.. maybe only around 3-6 feet.. which is not quite enough for a surfer to go through their tunnel portion, even when they formulated such small tunnels...

So, yeah, getting back to the bird idea... There was a "free bird," that was maybe only just a small bird (and not a water bird) just flew too close to the crest of one of the incoming waves, and the wave was only like 45 feet (15 meters) from the part of the shore where I was (I was up on top of of the rocky areas), so when the wave was cresting, the bird was in the same spot and that was not a good spot, and I would have had thought that the bird would have had known better, and the wave crashed upon itself quickly, and no more bird. .and no evidence of bird, even though surely the bird was in there, but it was not getting out once it went through that level of violence..  free bird turned into dead bird, yet from outside of the water, I could not see the evidence of dead bird even though the wave came in within seconds of cresting, crashing, sucking up bird and washing onto the shore.

My perspective of the "free" bird getting sucked up by a wave kind of looked like this, except the wave was bigger.. this wave is only a couple feet at most, and in recent times some of these waves had been getting 3-6 feet and some greater than that.



By the way, just a thought.  I doubt that I have given away enough information to give away my location at the time of my taking such picture.  No WO sign.  No other ways of establishing that I really took this picture beyond my proclaiming that I did take it.


"It's too expensive."
"I'm waiting to buy the dip."
They're the same picture!

It is getting difficult to get to the status of overaccumulation in less than 4 years, even though it is possible, yet part of being possible to get anywhere with our bitcoin is that we have to get started... and aven accumulate for quite a while before we might start to employ strategies that the attempt to figure out the dip.

Surely, in retrospect, it seems to have had been better for the guy who got started earlier, even at one of the 2021 highs, yet I doubt that current BTC prices are going to feel expensive 4-ish years from now... even though contemporaneously almost all times "feel expensive," especially for bitcoin newbies.. yet if they don't have any or much if any, better to start now rather than waiting.  From my perspective, waiting is not a very good BTC accumulation strategy, and never really has been, even though retrospectively we might feel that we could have had figured out the various dips.  

Decline in Bitcoin price is a kind of blessing for those who are sure that Bitcoin will soon be at 200k.

Fair enough.

Anyone still accumulating should be happy to be able to continue accumulating at $113k-ish rather than $120k-ish.. even though it might not be any kind of real big difference... but surely better to be accumulating in the lower $100ks rather than in the upper $100ks.

Lazy in August
This is what she likes to do
Coiling, recoiling
#haiku

I recall similar statements last year about August and September, and I also recall that both August and September were good months for dee coinz... and perhaps part of my point is that it could be misleading to get too caught up upon corn daddy needing to follow calendar-based expectations.
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August 24, 2025, 09:58:59 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1)

I can't be a**ed with looking over the history here.
I know we are a bunch of freedom seekers here at WO.
Have you all seen Dorsey's new messaging app Bitchat?
A permissionless encrypted messaging system leveraging Bluetooth BLE.
I have been playing with it for a couple of days and it is looking promising.
A lot of messages are relayed using nostr relays.
Worth a look.
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August 24, 2025, 10:01:13 PM


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August 24, 2025, 11:01:13 PM


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August 24, 2025, 11:31:46 PM
Merited by d_eddie (1)

We need a new poll.
What will be the top and likely cycle high in 2025?
  • It’s already in
  • <$130,000
  • $130,000 - $139,999
  • $140,000 - $149,999
  • $150,000 - $159,999
  • $160,000 - $169,999
  • $170,000 - $179,999
  • $180,000 - $189,999
  • $190,000 - $199,999
  • >$200,000

I don't like the built in assumption that you make for the poll, even though sure it is possible that the cycle high will end up playing out in 2025.

To me it seem improper (and even unnecessary) to put that assumption into the poll question, even though likely the overriding question is questioning what is the top in 2025.

Another question is what is the top for this cycle.

The answers might be the same responses from the poll responders

and

They might not.


The results might be the same in regards to actual bitcoin price performance topping out in 2025

and

They might not.

[edited out]
@philipma1957 - I can assure you I am a single poster with only one account. I don't know if there is any way that I can prove that...  
Those pictures of my Ham equipment were absolutely mine and not fake.

Would you like to see a picture of me sending Morse code in contact with another Ham operator? Do you want to see my Ham license with my name, address and call sign redacted? Do you want to see some parts I use to make homebrew linear amplifiers? Do you want to know a little about me? Tell me how I can appease you with me being one soul and one account with no sinister intentions? 

Holy fucking shit.

A couple of us have already said that there is no reason for you  to possibly jeopardize your opsec.. and we said that posting a contemporary picture with some aspect of your equipment might be enough.  Perhaps?  but not guaranteed since you already spent quite a bit of time suggesting some ways that are not necessary and a bit ridiculous...

You are just digging yourself into a worse situation, which likely contributes to fewer folks believing anything that you say.
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August 24, 2025, 11:50:21 PM

this smells like a liquidation hunt.



the price fell back to 110k and a significant amount of long positions were liquidated. preparing for a new rally?

That seems to be the word on X. People are saying it was Binance that dumped 24,000 BTC in order to force liquidations. No idea if that is true or not. It would seemingly be a bullish event if true. The last time they did this (allegedly) was the dip to $76K and the market shot up to $111K within weeks. A similar % move would put us at $162K while a similar market cap move would put us at $146K.
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August 25, 2025, 01:37:54 AM

Treasury companies hopefully will step in and kick up the buying volume some. Then if Powell could please give us some brrrr, now that would be grand, thank you.

Powell will give us some brrrr if Trump stops increasing inflation with his stupid tariffs.
Orange-Utan no good.

Sad to say, I don't trust any newbie by default. Especially ones that make a big deal about them "being new." Its like no shit, we can see that already.

Nah, it's not sad to say. It's just sad. (The fact that newbies aren't to be trusted by default)


Well the question remains how many should get merits

BTCETFInvestor talks a good game.

If I was certain he was a single poster and not a 5,10,15 or more account farmer giving a merit would be correct.

If I knew he even had only 2 accounts and would just stay with 2 I would  not care about the rule infraction.

If no one ever did more than 2 accounts and got signature money from 2 different signatures it  would not be that terrible..


But the idea of 10 and 15 bs accounts makes me hesitate to,give merits.

Plus some seem to think he is faking photos

@philipma1957 - I can assure you I am a single poster with only one account. I don't know if there is any way that I can prove that...  

Those pictures of my Ham equipment were absolutely mine and not fake.

Would you like to see a picture of me sending Morse code in contact with another Ham operator? Do you want to see my Ham license with my name, address and call sign redacted? Do you want to see some parts I use to make homebrew linear amplifiers? Do you want to know a little about me? Tell me how I can appease you with me being one soul and one account with no sinister intentions? 

i am a believer.
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August 25, 2025, 03:30:03 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), xhomerx10 (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1), Majormax (1)

A Lyn Alden post.  (Emphasis mine)

https://njump.me/nevent1qqs8eyxztf2pz632ycds4kled4t9fr7h4h3fjax9pjas0xr5evrt2xspzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgtczyr4tpe6k6v4cp0x5vneas39cqspsxp66z04tcdve5a3vntr6hy057qcyqqqqqqgxsw75f
Quote
There are those who say Bitcoin doesn't scale, and build blockchains with more throughput at the cost of more centralization (generally in the form of it being way harder to run a node), and then also point to Bitcoin as having low fees as a criticism.

The limiter it turns out, 16 years in, is not how many people *can* self-custody bitcoin. It's how many people *want* to.

Not everyone wants to deal with the technicalities of their own car, and not everyone wants to handle the technicalities of their own money. Quite few, in fact. It's always a subset for these types of things. People who are hardcore over their area of knowledge.

I leave my car details to pros down the street who I know the name of, and handle my money myself. There are those who handle their own cars but leave their money details to others.

Bitcoin currently processes about as many transactions per year as Fedwire, which handles $1 quadrillion worth of gross settlement volume per year for the US and for a good chunk of the world  (in context, it's approximately 200 million $5 million average-sized transactions). That's actually a crazy stat. Bitcoin is casually this open-source global Fedwire with its own scarce units, and unlike Fedwire anyone can permissionlessly build on it or transact with it, for low fees despite it being a +$2T network. And if it gets clogged there are all sorts of permissionless layers above it with certain trade-offs.

Some people say paper bitcoin holders detract from the network. I say the opposite- their willingness to hold IOUs helps add to price stability and network size without clogging it. That leaves more room for cypherpunks to develop with, and work on. And those who finance them.

This has been foreseen as early as Hal Finney in 2010, when he wrote about bitcoin banks (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2500.msg34211#msg34211).

We live in a sweet spot by most metrics. A golden age. Historically, so few recognize it when they have it so good.

Bitcoin is big enough to be of interest to many, and yet is still niche enough in a global context to have low base-layer fees. Suitcoiners are happy to add to its scale, and yet cypherpunks can also build, and users can transact right on the base layer, and move to Lightning and Ark and BitVM and Liquid and any sort of trade-off they want if fees get high.

And you're bearish, anon?

The real battle, though, is the ongoing government crackdown on privacy.

Bitcoin itself is in a pretty good technical place. It's a great tool. Certain conservative low-risk covenants might make it better, but even the existing design space is great and still expanding.

The US, Europe, and China cracking down on privacy is the threat. The headwind. And they're all expected. They're not surprising, but they're indeed fierce. That's the real battle- for the hearts and minds of people to embrace why privacy and permissionlessness are good traits.

In this ongoing funny contrast between podcasters and developers, that's the ideal role of podcasters- to spread the good news of what developers have built. To educate people. To tell them what's now possible thanks to developers. To articulate why cypherpunk values are good to a broad non-technical audience. That's where the overlap is. In overly-simplistic D&D terms, those with high CHA try to spread the work of those with high INT. It's not so much that "governments" are the problem. Governments often at least partially represent the people. If you convince a lot of people that privacy and sound money are good things, then you defang the problem. And you also challenge them legally in jurisdictions where it makes sense.

The technical foundation is good. The development of the past 16 years has been amazing, and it has brought us here. The scale has reached institutions, which is expected, not a threat. The actual threat is not treasury companies; it's anti-privacy regulations by governments. And more deeply that's a social issue, given how many people accept it. A vast amount of people believe privacy is only important for bad people who have something to hide. There's a ton of education work to do on it. Privacy is good. It's the default. But most people don't realize it when it comes to money.

We're winning. For 16 years ya'll have been amazing. But we'll need another 16 years more. More developers. More podcasters. All of it. We're a $2 trillion in market cap entering into a global fiat network of hundreds of trillions. And as their own institutions melt down from their own failures, their own top-heavy demographics and false promises, they will look for scapegoats. They will look toward those who are winning, and say they are the enemy.

When interviewers ask my price predictions, I tend to be conservative. That's mostly a liquidity assessment, and a rotation from OGs to new buyers. Price growth does take time.

But under that surface, I also have the benefit of being a general partner at among the largest bitcoin-only venture funds. I see what people are building, and I'm bullish. And for those who are working on stuff that doesn't align with profit, entities like the HRF and OpenSats are doing great work. Across all of the options, people are building great things.

I couldn't be more bullish on the ecosystem that's in place. All of you.

Let's go.

Good evening.
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August 25, 2025, 03:49:34 AM
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pictures of Ham equipment
not fake
picture of me sending Morse code


Same table, same gear?
Simple new photo is good!
(Wall observer mark...)





#haiku


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