TODAY ITS THE DAY UP OR DOWN WHERE WE GOING BABY BOIS?
to the ignore list!
I think bitcoin gonna dump
You sound excited rather than neutral, which likely means that you do not have even close to as many coins as you should have, based on your ongoing fallacy of thinking in regards to your thinking that you accumulate bitcoin by selling it.
Just think if you had
started accumulating bitcoin through buying at the time of your forum registration, then a mere $50 per week would have had caused you to invest $31.2k, and you would have right around 35 bitcoin. Have you done even close to that well with your seeming attempts to want to play down and to get excited about down?
Of course, most of the best bang for the buck would have had come in your earlier years, even if you had done most of your accumulating of bitcoin in your first cycle in bitcoin, you would have had ended up pretty well off.
I understand it could be possible for some guys to not have very much money to work with, yet even if we imagine a person ONLY being able to invest 5-10% of their income into bitcoin through only buying, they also would have gotten to a pretty good state by focusing on only buying and/or holding, and many folks can figure out ways to invest around 10% of their income into something like bitcoin, even though surely sentiment about bitcoin can sometimes be hard to develop.
Conviction and/or strong sentiment in regards to bitcoin does not come automatically. I did a quick browse at your one liner post history, and surely it may well be the case that you never really developed any understanding of bitcoin beyond one-liner quips.. which surely does not help in the conviction department.
Even a guy buying bitcoin around $50 per week would get up to about $2,600 in a year, so then that would be 5% of a $52k income or 10% of a $26k income... and surely if such a guy currently would have had 35 BTC there may well would have been some point that he realizes that he does not need to continue to put $50 per week into bitcoin, since he had enough or more than enough bitcoin to support his current income status or even greater than his then current income status, since even by mid 2022, when BTC prices started to dip quite extensively, there likely could have already had been some realization that 35 BTC or even
34 BTC at that time (mid-2022) was enough to pretty much sustain an income of $76k per year forever into the future, which presumptively would have had been quite a bit greater than the guy's then already existing income whether it would have had been $26k per year, $52k per year or some point in between those yearly income amounts.
Well I will do a
long leverage with 50x, with SL below $ 109k, with the data now I am quite confident that Bitcoin will continue to survive above $ 110k, at least until the interest rate cuts occur and the money will flow back to the market.
One way to assuredly lose money on an otherwise sure thing. Use leverage.
If you have 50x leverage, then don't you need only a 2% drop to lose everything? That's why you are using a stop loss.. but still.
I imagine that there are guys who win, from time to time, using leverage.
I know goldkingcoiner is not even talking about his accidental win on his 80x leverage.. which could mean that sooner or later he ended up giving it all back. There may be ways to play them smartly perhaps.
If you entered the 50x leverage at $111k, then a 2% drop would be slightly below $109k .. so is that how you do it? You have a stop loss at $109k, but you have already lost most of your money by then, no? Of course, if it goes up from th point of your entry, then that works out pretty good.. so if you were betting a whole bitcoin and it went up to $115k and you cashed out, that would be $4k x 50 = $200k. I understand that you are not playing with those kinds of numbers, and probably for good reasons guys get nervous when they enter positions with really high leverage.. anything beyond 5x seems very difficult to manage.
Thank you for your concern....
Everything you said is correct, it just depends on the margin used, because the percentage calculation comes from the margin calculation. If your wallet has $10, and you use $1 to fill the margin, you have sufficient resilience in the trade you are doing, even if you use 50x leverage.
For example, if the market price drops by -2%, your position would be at -100%, meaning only -$2 from your wallet. This loss is quite normal from this perspective. Similarly, if the Bitcoin price increases by +2%, only $2 would be added to your wallet.
How to assess the market side, risks must still be measured so as not to exceed one's ability to accept losses.
We are in a public thread in which we are largely pro-bitcoin and a lot of guys here maintaining some variations of bitcoin longs, yet not using leverage. Sure, there are some guys who trade with some portion of their bitcoin holdings, yet when many of the regulars are confronted about their trading and/or their use of leverage, they will usually tend to proclaim that they are ONLY using a small portion of their BTC holdings for such trading and/or use of leverage plays.
And, yeah, I cannot talk for everyone, and surely there are likely guys who are covert about their trading and/or their use of leverage... but many times, many of us recognize and appreciate that just being regularly long bitcoin has been a very profitable way to go, especially for guys who end up mostly being able to stick with such long positions for more than a whole cycle and maybe even a couple of cycles... but then if guys get through a couple of cycles, at that point they will tend to have quite a few options, even if we might not agree how to necessarily employ the options that we end up getting by the time we get through that much time in bitcoin.
I am not completely clear how the leverage plays work since I have not been practicing them, and sure maybe I should practice in order to better understand how they work...
I would imagine that at this point, your stop loss had already been hit - which already means that you ended up losing on the trade, and yeah, even if it had been profitable for a short period of time, there is also discretion in regards to when you end up closing such popsition, yet if you have a budget and you are winning some and losing some on your various leverage plays, you might not realize the extent to which you are in profits or losses until several years down the road, including that there are a lot of guys who are a couple cycles in to bitcoin, and surely can recognize and appreciate that all of the coins that the bought in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and even 2022, 2023, and most of 2024, those sub $70k BTC prices are likely never going to be touched upon again.. and yeah $70k is not that much lower than we are right now, and yeah some of these guys may well would have been focused upon accumulating their bitcoin through buying during those years rather than fucking around trying to trade their bitcoin, which in the end, they have bitcoin they bought that have prices as low as in the $3ks, and a decent amount below $10k, even though they surely may well have a decent amount of coins that they bought between $30k and $70k.
So if such guy might have ended up being able to be fairly aggressive in his focus on bitcoin accumulation through buying rather than fucking around with ups and downs and waiting strategies, then such guys might have had been able to put a couple years of his income into bitcoin during those times.. and even might have been able to get close to fuck you status.
Let's say that the guy had an income that started the period (early 2017) around $25k and he advanced in his income and by the end he had close to $40k (so now his income is $40k). He started investing in bitcoin in the
beginning of 2017, and he largely averaged around $170 per week invested into bitcoin which added up to close to $74k invested into bitcoin and nearly 9.2 BTC accumulated.
As long as this guy protects his bitcoin, he is pretty much set for life with his current BTC accumulation level.
Right now, he could withdraw forever at an income level of about $48k per year, yet if he chooses to wait another year, then [url=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg65653923#msg65653923]by mid-2026, his 9.2 BTC would likely be able to support an income of $80k per year[/url], which is twice as much as his current working income..
These numbers are not pie in the sky and they are based on real projections of the 200-WMA, so surely even if such a guy who currently has 9.2 BTC might have aspirations for even a higher income, then he can choose whether or not to continue to work or to maybe just withdraw at a lower rate in the beginning, which would allow the value of his bitcoin to continue to fold upon itself (to compound upon itself), and increase his income later on down the road to the extent that he might want an come of more than $100k per year or even $200k per year might affect what he does and/or how he manages his holdings, yet right now with his income ONLY being $40k per year, it may be harder for him to significantly build his bitcoin holdings, even though maybe if he were to get up to 10 BTC or maybe slightly more than that by mid-2033, then maybe by that time, that quantity of bitcoin would be able to support a $160k per year income.. It is not unreasonable to have those kinds of tentative plans if other aspects of the guys life might be conducive to those kinds of timeline considerations.
At the same time, I would suggest that guys are able to get to these kinds of numbers by building and investing rather than taking chances with their holdings and depleting their holdings from time to time, even if they can figure out how to win with their trades and/or their leveraging, in the longer term, they are unlikely to beat a strategy that focuses on bitcoin accumulation through buying only.
some 108.9k dip dip dip.
86k dip
That is pretty ambitious and even seeming to be bettable, even though I would not rule it out, but I would be willing to take the other side of such bet for drama sake.. even though you likely need to give a timeline for your assertion, which you seem to be wanting to bet $86k before $130k or something like that.
My previous number was that I was willing to also assert (or to bet) that bitcoin will never go below $75k again.
That does not look safe.
My own system is somewhat automated, so I don't make any major moves, even though I do have some extra buy orders stacked in the parts that are just above $100k.. so currently my main BTC buy orders are every $3,500, yet between $106k and $100k, I have 3 extra smaller buy orders contained therein.. They were ultimately amounts of me throwing in more money that was outside of my regular buys, so they have probably filled and sold several times already, maybe even close to 4 times for some of them.
I am figuring that the next time that we go into the mid-$124ks, then I will eliminate those extra supra $100k buy orders, and yeah, I should have had already done it, but I did not think about such elimination until we had already gone into our most recent dippening.
This is supposed to be fun to play these waves, yet many of us know it is not even very fun, even if some of us might be bouncing between 15x and 30x profits, and so the damage is not that great, even while there still would be a preference to be in 30x profits rather than 15x profits if there were way to have an actual choice.
I ultimately demand that the bitcoin CEO be fired for his complete incompetence and gross misconduct.
When he is actually supposed to raise prices he runs a fire sale without any obvious need to do so. What a moron..
I am not going to look at prices every minute anymore, I am sick of this.
I will probably switch to 5 mins or even 10 and That is what you get when you treat your fans with red candles like that.
It's normal for Bitcoin to go up and down. I won't get away with FUD on this dip, I am accumulating rigorously for 200k.
You have been holding back some money for this?
And then are you planning to sell at $200k? for 2x profits on some of your latest purchases?
It can be difficult to really get ahead in bitcoin if you are failing./refusing to let your bitcoin holding ride for a while and to compound in value a few times before getting overly excited to shave off profits. That's been my observation - so in other words usually any new buys should ride at least 4 years, and perhaps better yet if new buys are able to ride a couple of cycles, maybe 8-ish years or more.
But yeah, guys can do what they like.
By the way, think about it, Tim Draper is likely doing quite a bit better for his having had let the 30k bitcoin that he bought at around $600 per coin in 2014 (which would have had been around $18 million spent) as compared with guys who are making more recent purchases, even guys who bought in the $400 million or more in the 2022/2023 dip below $20k might have had ONLY gotten around 20k BTC, even though they spent 20x more, and yeah either of them have options since they are in profits right now. .but Drapers coins are in something like 180x profits while the 2022/2023 purchases are currently only in about 5.5x profits.. . .which even though 5.5x profits are better than 2x profits, guys should be careful in their efforts to think or to plan on acting in shorter timelines rather than just thinking that they are going to let their bitcoin investment (especially any new purchases) ride out more than a whole cycle and perhaps even plan on letting it ride out 2 cycles or more so that you don't get so worked up about merely having small potatoes of 2x-ish profits on your bitcoin holdings and/or thinking about quick turn arounds that may or may not end up happening anyhow..
Poll
