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News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 30.2 [Torrent]
 
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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26911345 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
ChartBuddy
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October 26, 2025, 11:01:13 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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October 26, 2025, 11:08:12 PM

114.6k is okay for now. we are also adding a lot of hash to the network

Quote
https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator
Latest Block:   920949  (10 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   106.9658%  (1654 / 1546.29 expected, 107.71 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   150839487445890.5                            
Current Difficulty:   146716052770107.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 156995115495226 and 157362437326742
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.0061% and +7.2565%
Previous Retarget:   October 16, 2025 at 1:23 AM  (-2.7337%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 3:31 AM  (in 2d 8h 24m 15s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 4:13 AM  (in 2d 9h 6m 35s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 2h 7m 8s and 13d 2h 49m 28s

157t diff will be a new high never seen before so big mining is happy to feed in more hash /cash to chase btc

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October 26, 2025, 11:10:25 PM

The bomb will explode very soon.
BTComBTC

The push has begun....
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October 26, 2025, 11:12:20 PM

BTW that mining difficulty chart looks bullish as fuck for the last year
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October 26, 2025, 11:39:56 PM
Merited by Satofan44 (1)

Smart, though Govts probably have deep water subs digging for the owners of that treasure lost in all those boating accidents!
Governments don't explore deep sea anymore, they are interested in space, like the moon, mars and the Sun maybe.

For sure deep sea seems more tangible than deep space - even though there are aspect of each that are likely helpful to know or try to know/understand.

Saylor predicts that Bitcoin can make it to 21$ million in next 21 years while BitMine Chairman Tom Lee said that in long run Bitcoin can rise to 1.6 - 2 million USD.
Saylor said one bitcoin will be equal to $21 million. It can be possible, but I have a lot of questions but for starters, there is not that much money in the whole world like what is the current M2 or M3 figure, or global money.

If you are limiting bitcoin's addressable market to M1, M2 and M3, then you are lacking a lot of understanding of what bitcoin is and what bitcoin is doing and/or capable of doing.

It seems to be that you need to think about bitcoin's addressable market in terms of all places that monetary value is held, so for example even if we look at a house, the house has utility value and various use cases, yet surplus value is monetary value.  Similar to debt, antique cars, art, various kinds of stocks, bonds commodities.  Think about gold.  Many folks refer to various utiliy values that gold has had over the years for its jewlery and industrial aspects, yet gold also has monetary value that has largely been taken from it over the years, since gold is hardly used as money anymore, even though surely in the past year-ish, gold has had some resurgence in its monetary value.

Bitcoin is likely to have an addressable market that is well over $1 quadrillion - it could even be in the arena of $10 quadrillion or more if we might be thinking about sometimes the ways that value is calculated can increase with the advent of new inventions, so think about electricity, refrigeration, the automobile, the airplane, computer technology, the internet. Various aspects of the whole world's value and/or potential for value increased when certain kinds of technologies and/or ways of doing things were discovered and/or invented.. which bitcoin is a paradigm shifting technology and many folks consider AI in similar ways, so that value can be increased and we are not sure about all of the the ways that value will increase due to some technological inventions/discoveries.

You can look at Jesse Myers's discussion of the topic, and others have also built upon Meyers (including Saylor had referenced some  of Meyer's previous works).

Saylor is predicting a long trajectory that maybe he won't live to see due to the age factor, but I like his optimism.

Of course, Saylor is Mortal and is close to 60, so he could keel over any day or he might last another 40-ish years... perhaps?, best case scenario of 40 more years... yet why does it matter? Guys can still make predictions and even have successors in place, and aspects of the world change with different people at the heads of different projects, but so what?  we adapt with changes in circumstances.. so influential people are ongoingly changing, even though some of their ideas and even their influences may well could have had historical impacts and/or impacts on various kinds of future trajectories.

You are devolving even worse. Are you trying to be purposeful in your denigration in order to derail the subject matter?  I am having difficulties seeing the point of being purposefully denigrating, even if you might have had identified some areas that cAPSLOCK is wrong, I doubt that they rise to the level of purposefully uninformative.. .
Actually I saw this in one of your posts, you agree that people should be called stupid if they are being stupid in regards Bitcoin. Something in those lines. Don't make me look for it, you have too many posts but it is fairly recent. Rules for others but not for us?  I hope this is not another feature of independent thinking. Roll Eyes

You don't need to look for where I may have said such a thing, even if you might be exaggerating or putting me into some kind of a wrong context.

Essentially, as you suggest, I don't have a problem with the idea of calling someone stupid or even sometimes engaging in personal attacks in order to make a point, especially when dealing with someone who seems to be disingenuine in points that he is making.  I doubt that cAPSLOCK reaches anything close to level of disingenuineness that you seem to implying of him, and sure of course, you are free to have differing judgement in regards to what constitutes disingenuineness, misleading, deceptions and/or lies, yet it still seems to me that extraordinary claims like that require extraordinary evidence.... or at least better evidence than what you have been providing, which seems to come close to none.  At least you seem to come off as someone who works towards beating the fuck out of others merely because they disagree with you instead of even trying to engage in somewhat less distracting dialogue.. and sure many of us might not be as technically informed as you are proclaiming yourself to be.. and yeah so in the area of beating up on people rather than beating up on their ideas, I think that such tactics are better employed when they are more strategic and limitedly used rather than an ongoing delugement of personal rather than substantive attacks that seems to be coming out of your keyboard..  

Yeah, of course, it is up to our discretion to figure out the extent in which such personally attacking tactics are used, and I am largely proclaiming that you are coming off as a bit outrageous in your usage of such tactics.

In your assertion of my own supposed independent thinking (as if it were an insult), there seems to be quite a bit of value in some amount of independent thinking and/or critical thinking, yet surely at the same time, as you seem to be suggesting such supposed "independent thinking" needs to be tethered to some aspects of reality rather than thrown out there as if independent thinking was valuable in itself in the event that it were untethered, and yeah, independent thinking is going to be problematic if it is not sufficiently tethered to some kind of materially relevant reality...  I doubt that you are even close to prevailing in assertions that cAPSLOCK is too much detached from reality in his various so far expressed criticisms and concerns.

**Note:I see that Hueristic already responded and used the word hypocrite, and maybe that is a bit more accurate, even if it does come off as a bit strong, even though he (Hueristic) did seem to explain what he meant by the use of such stronger language.
His response is wrong. I've already explained it. Policy rules are magic developer numbers, they can put whatever they want and they should not need to justify these decisions to the wider community.

You seem to be ongoingly proclaiming the Version 30 changes are not controversial or even significantly material enough in terms of what appears to be your own proclamation that Version 30 supporters (perhaps core developers?) do not have any obligation to justify such changes (or the non-changes as you seem to characterize them to be). And, yeah it seems to be that their ongoing strong assertions in that direction is causing more concern and outrage, and not all of the opposition are merely stupid or not worthy of being addressed... At least it seems problematic to me for the various version 30 supporters to be somewhat coordinated in taking such a strong position in their supposed non-obligation to justify the various changes (non-changes as you call them) that were made in version 30.
 
Futhermore:
1) Nobody can force a change on you, you can run the old client.
2) Nobody can force a change on you, you can run the new client and patch the rule yourself if you want.

 Sure.  It seems like a decent number of folks are engaged in such running of old client, running of alternative client and looking into the development of additional alternative clients (not only knots - even though some are choosing to run knots since they might consider it to be a better alternative and/or sending a statement kind of alternative - as seems to be part of cAPSLOCK's rationale for running knots) while complaining at the same time, since there were some thoughts that Core developers were benevolent players, but then now they are seeming to have some possible evil underpinnings, so even if Core is being "misunderstood," some of their being misunderstood seems to be of their own making and some of the seemingly combative stance of various spokesperson on their side, including uie pooie who seems to have taken on such a spokesperson role, too.

There is no reason to be hyperbolic, and whenever some user engages in the discussion like that it makes the developer wants to listen even less to them. Why should they listen? Whether you believe truly that you are correct or whether you are exaggerating on purpose does not matter -- it is not worth their time.

I understand that time is limited, yet I read that there are likely more obligations to communicate and/or not to execute controversial changes without some level of clarification  and/or rebutting of the opposition, and yeah, sure maybe you are correct, and the opposition are just a bunch of fringe nutjobs who have gotten a lot of folks riled up over nothing, yet there is still an impression that has been sent, and even a lot of skepticism about core if there are so many pieces of evidence of not seeming to allow for the presentation of alternative ideas, even if in the end Version 30 still were to get implemented,

...so in some sense it just seems to a lot of folks (yeah perhaps the non-technical dummies like me and that dummy cAPSLOCK) that version 30 was unnecessarily rushed into place, when there does not seem to have had been any emergency and also which seems to send bad precedent - like what seems to me to be the opposite outcome of the 2017 block wars.  In the 2017 blocksize wars, the no change camp ended up prevailing, and in this case the change for the mere sake of change camp seems to have had ended up prevailing.. and that seems to be the impression of a decent number of folks on the street who are likely not all blind nut jobs know-nothings merely because they are concerned about the seeming unjustified rush job to make changes to bitcoin that are likely more material than you are making them out to be.

By the way, there are quite a few guys on this forum that tend to trust your judgement on various matters, yet there could be cases where we might consider that maybe you are wrong in regards to the extent to which some change, such as version 30, might have had gotten through by influences of bad actors and/or that the changes that were made were either not justified or they were rushed and put into bitcoin when they were not needed.  I am not claiming that I would know, even though surely some guys (including yours truly) become skeptical when we get senses that changes might be being made and/or rushed through.. so then some of us might get the sense that if the changes are not really urgent, then why is there an appearance that they are being rushed through.  
Furthermore, gmaxwell has nothing to do with this. He doesn't really contribute code to Core which is something that you guys should know?

Greg is still a trusted voice in bitcoin circles, and a person with quite a bit of technical knowledge in terms of various aspects of the code and other aspects of bitcoin, and even someone who chimes in on topics like this and explains them from time to time
 
I'm sure that everyone involved has thought more than twice about this because a lot of time was lost over nothing. If they decided still to go ahead after so many discussions, does that not tell you the answer?

Mostly I see that you are proclaming that there was some need for version 30 to go through, yet there wasn't any need for core developers to either explain and/or to allow some vetting progress to take place, and sure you seem to be suggesting that the anti-version 30 folks were muddying the water so much  and perhaps creating an urgency for 30 to be passed... and a lot of it is not really making sense to me, even though I don't even claim to know details, even though your own story in regards to the situation does not make a whole lot of sense... while at the same time, you are saying that you have no obligation to make sense, except maybe to just ongoingly trivialize and character attack any opposition.
 
Whether historical bitcoiners are technically correct or not in regards to the changes that are being made, there still can be anxiety in regards to whether the changes were justified and if the process for their getting adopted and accepted was sufficiently open and/or justifiable as being more necessary than not.. or whatever might be the standard for making such changes, when there seems to be so much vocal opposition and concerns about the changes being made and the justifications (if suffiicient?) for making them.
For consensus rules, forks, and major changes to how Bitcoin works definitely, but not for this. You don't get to provide input on any specific thing that you feel like you should. They have no duty to listen to you, and you can't make them either. All people can do is make things worse for everyone because they can't accept this fact.  Smiley

Sure.  You might be correct that supporters of version 30 (perhaps Core developers?) had already sufficiently and adequately communicated their non-change change.
 
Should LN developers ask for your input in regards to specific mitigations that they are deploying for certain type of attacks that not even 1% of users here know exist (let alone understand)? Really? THIS is the argument that you would make?

I am not arguing that, since I don't have enough information to know.  As far as I know, lightning network is a layer that works and interacts with bitcoin, and I am pretty sure that it is open source, but yeah, I sill don't even know how to describe matters, so if there was something controversial in regards to some change that they were making, then I suppose folks would chime in, and I understand that there are a few implementations of lightning network, so there sometimes had been some controversy regarding the implementations, yet I am not in a position to really know, beyond having an understanding that lightning network works on top of and in coordination with 1st layers like bitcoin, and no new coins are created, even though there have been certain questions in regards to some of the recognition of sub-satoshi units down three more decimal places.. .but yeah what do I know?
 
Anyway, by supporting Knots you are supporting the establishment of a transaction review committee that will review transaction data for CSAM. Totally not creepy or suspicious at all. Roll Eyes

That does not sound like a fair characterization of the repercussion of supporting knots or some other alternative client..
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October 27, 2025, 12:01:17 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
xhomerx10
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October 27, 2025, 12:45:08 AM

R.I.P. June Lockhart.

I GREW up watching her on Lassie and Lost in Space.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_Lockhart

 Couldn't wait to watch the new episode of Lost in Space!

100 years of age!  Wow.

RIP June Lockhart
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October 27, 2025, 12:46:44 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

I know that it is not a popular opinion, but adding some privacy to transactions might be needed (at some point).
Otherwise, some alternatives would become progressively popular, especially for financial types aka Wall Street.
...for p2p or exchange tx, it mostly does not matter, so bitcoin would remain dominant.
Another Polymarket update. You can see the market continues to get more bullish with nearly half of people now thinking we are headed to $130K and beyond this year. With Polymarket having a 95% accuracy reading a month out and percentages rising for $130K BTC, it is highly likely that we see another big rally before Christmas.
47% = >$130K  (up 3%)
*32% = $90K-$130K  (up 7%)
21% = <$90K   (down 10%)
*inferred
I wonder how this computes into our bettors chances here...
If nothing "bad" transpires on 10/30 (maybe a coin toss, lol), then it is still in the air as to who will win in a "battle" for 100K sats.

You want to bet that it is not 50/50?

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Debate and disagreements about tech around Bitcoin (OP_RETURN).
I’ve seen this in the past Wink

Whilst it’s a discussion, what are the chances that Luke Dash Jr forks off and I get more free money like the last time this type of saga played out (thanks Roger and Jihan Wu).

I would bet that a fork is less likely than not.
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October 27, 2025, 01:01:13 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
hisslyness
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October 27, 2025, 01:28:18 AM

114.6k is okay for now. we are also adding a lot of hash to the network

Quote
https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator
Latest Block:   920949  (10 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   106.9658%  (1654 / 1546.29 expected, 107.71 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   150839487445890.5                            
Current Difficulty:   146716052770107.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 156995115495226 and 157362437326742
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.0061% and +7.2565%
Previous Retarget:   October 16, 2025 at 1:23 AM  (-2.7337%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 3:31 AM  (in 2d 8h 24m 15s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 4:13 AM  (in 2d 9h 6m 35s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 2h 7m 8s and 13d 2h 49m 28s

157t diff will be a new high never seen before so big mining is happy to feed in more hash /cash to chase btc



i am more interested in getting 5BTC for free!..
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October 27, 2025, 01:36:19 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I disagree with your conclusions, but I do appreciate the calm, objective and concise layout of your points.
I'd be interested what are your main objections to the OP_RETURN change, or which of the arguments you would highlight. If you want let's discuss them. Or if you think one of my conclusions in particular is blatantly false I'm also ready to re-think them (but not without argumenting in favour of them) Wink
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October 27, 2025, 01:49:29 AM
Merited by vapourminer (2), LFC_Bitcoin (2)

I  have a question if core 30  with the new 100k size limit does have a huge terrible flaw how easy would it be to retreat backwards to core 29.

Ie what were the safe guards for system crash and burn for core 30.

How simple to roll back to core 29?

If we do an accidental fork for Instance which is correct one? And last time we did an accidental fork coins were not worth much.

Now they are.

If I recall some pools lost the bad fork coins and were told oh well switch to the good fork fast.

When blocks are now worth over 300 k bigger pools will get pissed if they were shunted to the wrong fork for a few dozen blocks of coins.
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October 27, 2025, 01:58:07 AM

The Sunday Saylor buy announcements are causing a pretty regular end of weekend pump. We’ll probably be back to $112K tomorrow but I hope knot (see what I did there). Maybe something to consider if you are spending BTC on fiat denominated items.

Any reason why the buys are on Sunday ?
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October 27, 2025, 02:01:13 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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October 27, 2025, 02:04:15 AM

I  have a question if core 30  with the new 100k size limit does have a huge terrible flaw how easy would it be to retreat backwards to core 29.

Ie what were the safe guards for system crash and burn for core 30.

How simple to roll back to core 29?

If we do an accidental fork for Instance which is correct one? And last time we did an accidental fork coins were not worth much.

Now they are.

If I recall some pools lost the bad fork coins and were told oh well switch to the good fork fast.

When blocks are now worth over 300 k bigger pools will get pissed if they were shunted to the wrong fork for a few dozen blocks of coins.

This is where the term "Pay" attention came from.

If they are not willing to spend the currency of time why should anyone else cover their loss?
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October 27, 2025, 02:17:21 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

I  have a question if core 30  with the new 100k size limit does have a huge terrible flaw how easy would it be to retreat backwards to core 29.

Ie what were the safe guards for system crash and burn for core 30.

How simple to roll back to core 29?

If we do an accidental fork for Instance which is correct one? And last time we did an accidental fork coins were not worth much.

Now they are.

If I recall some pools lost the bad fork coins and were told oh well switch to the good fork fast.

When blocks are now worth over 300 k bigger pools will get pissed if they were shunted to the wrong fork for a few dozen blocks of coins.

This is where the term "Pay" attention came from.

If they are not willing to spend the currency of time why should anyone else cover their loss?

and how fast would it take to realize the network did an accidental fork?

at least a few blocks is certain to be needed since each fork would need a block to exist.

You bring up a good point though how fast could it be found and what would you need to do to know which is the good fork,

It happened years ago 2013 maybe if I recall

possibly 2012 not sure.  It lasted a few hours time. maybe 20 or 30 blocks on each part of the fork before it was sorted out.
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October 27, 2025, 03:01:16 AM


Explanation
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October 27, 2025, 03:35:46 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3), vapourminer (2), JayJuanGee (1)

I  have a question if core 30  with the new 100k size limit does have a huge terrible flaw how easy would it be to retreat backwards to core 29.
It would be not difficult at all, as the OP_RETURN limit is a default setting. Not a consensus change.

Thus I don't understand how you think it would accidentally fork the chain? There is zero possibility for this. Because nothing changes with respect to the protocol and the blocks that are accepted.

Of course if Core 30 had a bug just like bitcoind 0.8 had in 2013, then it could fork the chain, but that was due to a (small) consensus change. AFAIK Core 30 has no consensus changes at all (see https://bitcoincore.org/en/releases/30.0/).
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October 27, 2025, 03:43:59 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

I  have a question if core 30  with the new 100k size limit does have a huge terrible flaw how easy would it be to retreat backwards to core 29.

Ie what were the safe guards for system crash and burn for core 30.

How simple to roll back to core 29?

If we do an accidental fork for Instance which is correct one? And last time we did an accidental fork coins were not worth much.

Now they are.

If I recall some pools lost the bad fork coins and were told oh well switch to the good fork fast.

When blocks are now worth over 300 k bigger pools will get pissed if they were shunted to the wrong fork for a few dozen blocks of coins.

There is not likely to be any bug per se.  It has game theoretical effects as well as some positive possible effects (less use of segwit space and fake UTXO... though not likely).  But it is the second and third order effects of an enlarged attack surface that I think are concerning.

As to rolling back... well this is an interesting question.

It will have no real effect.  Policy decides what you will accept in YOUR mempool.  But consensus affects what we allow on the blockchain. v30 nodes and librerelay nodes will pass off these transactions and if the miners/pools accept them they go in the block, and then every node (hopefully!) will have that in their chain... since it is all consensus legal.

So in the end the more people who either stick with a version w/o the change (eventually core might backport this into 29 etc), or adjust the datacarrier size to a smaller #, or run Knots the less of this we will see make it into blocks.  But as long as they is a minority of nodes accepting it, it WILL still get in.

There are talks of soft forks.  I do not have a strong opinion on that yet.

At this time, any hard fork is unlikely.

The general understanding on what this really does is... eh... spotty.  And since there are unknown unknowns you should believe no one who says they know it all already.

We will have to see.

I may go on with my thoughts and posts on this, though not today.

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October 27, 2025, 03:46:17 AM


and how fast would it take to realize the network did an accidental fork?

at least a few blocks is certain to be needed since each fork would need a block to exist.

You bring up a good point though how fast could it be found and what would you need to do to know which is the good fork,

It happened years ago 2013 maybe if I recall

possibly 2012 not sure.  It lasted a few hours time. maybe 20 or 30 blocks on each part of the fork before it was sorted out.

An accidental fork is nearly 0% likely.
Any sort of HARD fork is also VERY unlikely.

A planned SOFT fork IS possible.  There are people floating strategies for why this could be positive for their position on the matter.
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