Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

A collegue of mine really liked going scuba diving on Lucy,

I would advise against that. One small mistake and bye-bye Kansas.

Yep, that was what i thought, too. More than crazy, but that was at age 19-20. When you really wanna know it.
On the other hand, he said he developed quite some tolerance over time, which is also the experience from some other guy i used to trip with.
That one went unusually quiet some day, but other than that he's still the same. I meet him every few years, lives nearby.

Anyone of you into Amanita Muscarina?
I'm going to start experimenting with microdosing. Did one macro-dose 30 years ago and it was good but also intense. Like Shrooms but without any bad feelings.

I've tried A.muscaria (and A.pantherina, similar profile with more kick drum), but only on doses too low to be significant. Both must be processed to get rid of toxic stuff. One way of doing that is making water kefir with them. A friend of mine does that routinely. Tasty! It's also potent if you put enough mushrooms in it (which my friend prudently didn't on those few occasions).

When microdosing, usually you go the drying route at 45°c to 70°c, which breaks down the toxic compounds. Then you do 0.3 to 0.5 grams, where 1-3 grams are considered to be perceived as psychoactive. It raises Dopamine and Serotonine (and some more, but less so), which would really help my case.
If i wanna go on a real trip again, a friend has conserved some awfully potent LSD for us to share ("when we're really old and we have no more fucks left to give", as he tends to say).

The effects are totally unlike classic mushrooms: no tryptamines in amanitas. At low doses, it's a numbing stupor, soft and somewhat similar to a low dose of alcohol. At higher doses, I'm told it's delirium and visions. The effects are quite linear, so by increasing the dose gradually it's fairly easy to find the right level. The only problem is that different fruits have wildly different potency - even if picked from the same spot/mycelium. So the best approach is to prepare the whole batch together and stick to the same batch when looking for the goldilocks level. Kefir in particular freezes well and keeps for months/years.

That's what i have planned to do, collect a couple and dry/grind to mix them up, while i haven't found any yet because it's late and we had an intense rainstorm recently. Everything mushroom in the woods is smashed, with the exception of freshly grown, smallish shrooms. I saw two which could have been AM, but the spots and most of the red skin was washed off, so i didn't take them with me. So i decided to order some bio-grade dried powder at a shop with good reputation from a AM-tripper i know (father of a friend). He was often raving about losing the sense of time on his countless trips. He was the one to educate me on these mushrooms, but i kindly refused each time he asked me to try.
I still hope to find some native AM, and then i'll try the Kefir, because why not   (and i'm a fan of Kefir anyway).

And maybe it tunes in a different way, it wouldn't be uncommon in neurodivergent folks, like when i take caffeine it's inducing a relaxed and focused state, instead of jittery nervousness and racing heartbeat.

Thanks for sharing your knowlegde, man (same goes out to @ESG).

[d_eddie]

If i wanna go on a real trip again, a friend has conserved some awfully potent LSD for us to share ("when we're really old and we have no more fucks left to give", as he tends to say).

No need to get that old in my experience
A careful approach is what really matters.
Like, say, avoid scuba diving maybe 

That's what i have planned to do, collect a couple and dry/grind to mix them up, while i haven't found any yet

Same here. The friend I wrote about went on a collecting expedition recently, but he came back empty handed. One fruit that looked like a muscaria was already half rotten, so he left it there.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Powell said in his speech that a December rate cut might not happen. This made people sell off pretty hard. It’s clear the economy is headed towards a major crash. It’s about finding a good spot to get out now. I keep hoping that we see one more rally to be able to sell, but hope isn’t the greatest investment strategy.

The market is just so weak at the moment, I’m also holding out for one last leg up. If we can break above $125,000 and head into the $130,000+ zone I might sell a fair bit more than I have been planning to. I am losing the appetite to underperform stocks and Gold if I am honest. All I can say is that this is the first bull market that has really disappointed me. But hey, life goes on.

[cAPSLOCK]

I have to say, I've been around here long enough to where it gives me the deluxe heebie jeebies when LFC starts seriously talking about selling and market tops.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I have to say, I've been around here long enough to where it gives me the deluxe heebie jeebies when LFC starts seriously talking about selling and market tops.

Everything is set up perfectly but Bitcoin just is not taking the bait. I am still deludedly hoping we run hot towards the end of the year but far less confident than I was.

Trump meets Xi at 11am tomorrow, South Korea time. Let's pray for good news to pump this ponzi.

[OutOfMemory]

Okay, I wanted to post a couple videos here that I found helpful.

This whole podcast conversation is quite good. Jimmy Song has one of the more reasonable and granular takes on all that's going on right now.

I just skipped over the full chat video each for some minutes a couple of times, and Song pretty nails it.
Even if Luke is insane or a cat eater, the whole discussion is awfully polarized, but in my opinion it's not really a Core vs. Knots "war", but that's what both of these parties make of it. Not upgrading should be the best thing to do, imo. The "Core followers" are acting clearly hostile towards (even constructive) criticism. Whoever with a sane, calm mind would support this witch-hunt?!
I don't know enough about Luke and his affilates, but i do not want to get pushed into that corner by toxic gaslighters.
Something went wrong in the development corner, and i sugggest it's not even all about "freedom" anymore, as they claim.
The whole reframing fits the fucked up communication style of our latest guest(s) to the WO, but it's really on about the same level as past EXPHorizon's low-IQ outbursts.
EDIT: I think i will call him "Corey" from now on, which is a mix of "Core" and the male equivalent of "Karen".

[cAPSLOCK]

Okay, so I took the time to read BIP 444.  And to digest it a little bit.

I reserve the right to change my mind on this at any moment because I'm really still pretty shallow in working through all this.

But I think this is an absolutely hideous idea and I almost can't believe anyone has suggested it.

So this makes the breakup even worse because now the two sides are bad and crazy.

The only thing that I think could possibly redeem this is the idea that it might be a made-a play in which case they're doing sort of Trump-like negotiations waving this around as kind of a extreme point that they can then negotiate back from.

But I am going to keep grinding the rusty gears in my head and look forward to hearing some of the voices I trust weighing in on this.

But if I understand it correctly, this thing would break Bitcoin completely.

The silver lining there as I think there is just about a zero chance that anything like this would go through.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

So this makes the breakup even worse because now the two sides are bad and crazy.

All summed up in a neat statement.

The silver lining there as I think there is just about a zero chance that anything like this would go through.

Best thing would be to stay on .29
It doesn't seem any of both sides do care about Bitcoin.
Blown up egos. The basic requirement to fuck things up big time.

[JayJuanGee]

So now that Gap should be filled ..............

Yup. Looking at the leverage heat map it seems that the longs were taken out quite efficiently. Amazing how the market makers hunt these leveraged traders. Now we wait to see if we’re going to get one last leg up before the market drops back down to sub $80K. I’d personally love to sell some next month in the $130K range, so I hope we get one last buying wave.

It seems that, through ongoing persistent repetition, you are trying to manifest your "one last" vision of dee cornz into existence.

What are the odds?

Perhaps slightly in your favor, but NOT as high as you are making them out to be.  Even though you are talking in certainties, what you are saying does not rise to the level of "bettable" since it is pretty high on the scale of possibilities, even though it surely is not as certain as you are irritatingly ongoingly proclaiming it.

Of course, if your scenario does ned up happening, we will never hear the end to how "correct" you were, and how "wrong" everyone else was.

By the way, how is your MT GOX dump scenario (that you were repeating ad nauseum in earlier times) playing out?

A couple of years ago I asked a similar question and there weren't many replies. I guess things have changed since then so I will ask again:

For tax reasons sometimes I do sell physical Bitcoin and buy Bitcoin ETP/ETN's. No ETF's since that is not available for us EURO guys (unless something changed lately).
Let's say this are the ones I have directly available:

Trackers (ETFs)
1- VanEck Bitcoin ETN Tradegate AG VBTC | DE000A28M8D0 | EUR
2- iShares Bitcoin ETP Tradegate AG IB1T | XS2940466316 | EUR
3- WisdomTree Bitcoin ETN Tradegate AG WBIT | GB00BJYDH287 | EUR
4- CoinShares Physical Bitcoin Tradegate AG BITC | GB00BLD4ZL17 | EUR

5- ETC Group Physical Bitcoin Tradegate AG BTCE | DE000A27Z304 | EUR
6- 21Shares Bitcoin Tradegate AG 2BTC | CH0454664001 | EUR
7- 21Shares Bitcoin Core Tradegate AG 21BC | CH1199067674 | EUR
8- Fidelity Physical Bitcoin ETP Xetra FBTC | XS2434891219 | EUR

Until now I have been making buys here and there from an almost random mix of them without much thinking.
So my question is... do you guys have a preference between those and why? Do you always buy just a certain pick or also a mix of them?
Any recomendation/suggestions?

Be careful in regards to overly selling real BTC for fake ones that disallow your the right folr self-custody, merely due to your perception of "tax advantages."    Sure, maybe 10% or maybe even 20% of your stash in those inferior products - be careful guys both in terms of considering the value of "price exposure" and "tax advantages," and thinking about your no longer having any say regarding the BTC that you supposedly own (and that are supposedly back up by actual BTC on their end).

I wonder if the price action is anything to do with the strategy B minus rating.
Perhaps a little bit too late for that to be the case. I don't know.

Can I bet you a thousand sats that there's a note on the sailor's desk right now that reads something like just convert all of your holdings into ETF shares and you're going to be an A.

I think that some of the discussion that I had been hearing is that it is better to first get a rating, even if it is a not very good rating, and then with the passage of time, the rating is likely going to end up having to go up, especially with a likelihood of performance that it good, relative to other assets with similar and/or better ratings. So, sure, there is an expectation that BTC will continue to perform well, so that Saylor's (MSTR's) and  any of the underlying financial products will continue to perform well, too.

I wonder if the price action is anything to do with the strategy B minus rating.
Perhaps a little bit too late for that to be the case. I don't know.

Can I bet you a thousand sats that there's a note on the sailor's desk right now that reads something like just convert all of your holdings into ETF shares and you're going to be an A.

Powell said in his speech that a December rate cut might not happen. This made people sell off pretty hard. It’s clear the economy is headed towards a major crash. It’s about finding a good spot to get out now. I keep hoping that we see one more rally to be able to sell, but hope isn’t the greatest investment strategy.

Yeah, I agree with you. And some of the possible trajectories I see are pretty nasty for Bitcoin. Because even though Bitcoin is going to be a hedge against the collapse of the economy, just like gold is, I believe both of them will suffer when the crash actually happens.
My darkest theories on where we are run pretty conspiratorial, but I just don't see that many other realities.

Nothing is going to survive, and unfortunately I think that's the plan.  A bit of a financial COVID, if you like.  The governments are going to have to take extreme measures to correct the solution and save everybody for starvation.
In the US, I believe they would have had an easier time executing this with Harris in office, but theyve obviously got Trump pinned down at this point. So...

Some of my less awful theories are not nearly so crazy sounding, but I'm not sure that they're a whole lot more likely either.

I noticed too.  You do tend to have some ongoing negative streaks in your thinking, and sure I have nothing wrong with attempting to deal with reality rather than ignoring the negativity, yet we have to be careful with our overly harping on negative (such as armagaedon) scenarios even though the eyes of many of us were opened when the various March 2020 scenarios (a long with the various fall out happenings (such as supply chain disruptions and even purposeful economic shut-down, "for our own good") from that) were playing out.

In other words, I, personally, believe that it is not good to overly weigh Armageddon scenarios even though in and around March 2020, we have witnessed such Armageddon scenarios, to have higher odds (in the non-zero camp) than many of us had contemplated as even being possible. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[bitserve]

Be careful in regards to overly selling real BTC for fake ones that disallow your the right folr self-custody, merely due to your perception of "tax advantages."    Sure, maybe 10% or maybe even 20% of your stash in those inferior products - be careful guys both in terms of considering the value of "price exposure" and "tax advantages," and thinking about your no longer having any say regarding the BTC that you supposedly own (and that are supposedly back up by actual BTC on their end).

I am currently very very far from those percentages you mention.... but yes, eventually, over the years, I expect to reach those levels and even higher.

As I said, for tax reasons (FIFO sucks), I need to avoid buying more physical until I complete (if ever) a "full rotation" of my stash... so it's either buy derivatives or not to buy at all. Derivatives I can both buy and sell and even trade (even if I mostly can't be arsed anymore tbh).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

So now that Gap should be filled ..............

... she whispered with great hope.

 Celebrations are in order.
 
   Tiny tuna tacos tuturor!
 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ESG]

.
-really the market is very volatile this week, having already gone from 109 to 116 and back to 109 in three days... What madness!!
  But today in this quick visit to 109300 having a rebound to 111000 in an hour showed to be trying to build a support at 110000, showing an intention to remain above the 180-day average, However, closing the day practically at 110000, a psychological support, but $1300 below the 180-day average.
   The 180-day average is a good indicator of support and signal resistance for the long term, having taken into account the average volume to better interpret, in this case in the last 15 days, a large volume of selling compared to the buying volume, but surprising in trying to keep above it, but if it continues to close below it as in the last few days, and today, It may indicate a new continuation in the fall and moving further and further away from 126k, with 116k being the last resistance that was tested this week, hoping to continue closing above the 180 average  next days and that we know we can close above the 50-day again for a clearer sign of bullish continuation.

 daily chart>


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-I expected the market to be volatile this week, but not so volatile, so I wanted to mention it here again.>

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  . I am grateful for the attention.
 I had forgotten a point there, but added there.
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-Here, yesterday it seemed that it had stopped raining, but then the rain returned, and it hasn't stopped until now, maybe the sun comes out here tomorrow and it's a hot day!!  _#_

[philipma1957]

oh btc did reach its ath today for difficulty.

155.9t a 6.3% plus jump.

Latest Block:   921385  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   86.0682%  (74 / 85.98 expected, 11.98 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   146716052770107.5                           
Current Difficulty:   155973032196071.9                           
Next Difficulty:   between 135118027255417 and 154257223105928
Next Difficulty Change:   between -13.3709% and -1.1001%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 6:09 AM  (+6.3095%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 12, 2025 at 9:04 AM  (in 13d 13h 35m 23s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 14, 2025 at 11:32 AM  (in 15d 16h 3m 29s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 3h 55m 10s and 16d 6h 23m 16s


155.9t isvery bullish as it is the ath for the difficulty.

[ESG]

oh btc did reach its ath today for difficulty.

155.9t a 6.3% plus jump.

Latest Block:   921385  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   86.0682%  (74 / 85.98 expected, 11.98 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   146716052770107.5                           
Current Difficulty:   155973032196071.9                           
Next Difficulty:   between 135118027255417 and 154257223105928
(~)

155.9t isvery bullish as it is the ath for the difficulty.

-Are these new highs in difficulty after freeing up more space to raise IMG in a 'legal' way on the network after the last update, related to the increase in difficulty in the last few days? Is there any indicator of images being uploaded on the network?

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