Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OgNasty]

Happy Halloween Bitcoiners. Hopefully the only scary thing tonight is the costumes. November is historically the best month for Bitcoin and we’re at the end of the 4-year cycle. With a little luck we’ll find ourselves looking at a price back in the $120s so we can sell a little for holiday gifts at a nice exchange rate.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Few more hours and the "Hunt for red October' would be accomplished, most likely, after 7 years.
Bitcoin just doesn't want to behave "expectedly".
Oh, well.
Here is to Moon-vember!
 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

Just kind of sitting and thinking.

I mean, it's a market's cliche, but certainly I've seen it in Bitcoin, some recent big hits, just a couple.

100K by 12/31! (I think this was 22?)
Uptober!  ('25)

But I'll predict one.

Well, markets over time for a 70% drop. ('26)

The way I see it, the pros are in this market now. And either they can really easily manipulate it, or they can't.  If they are cheating with paper Bitcoin then you have they can manipulate it totally.  But even if they're not cheating, they can use the method that I've been talking about for years, which is control the retail price oracle, and do volume over the counter.

So in the case they can't really control the market, then what's going to happen when we enter... winter?  I would say they would probably dampen the effect of the bear (compared to prior performance)  by fairly strong buying.

If they CAN have an influence on the market, then I think the question becomes...  How do they extract the greatest value?

There is only one answer to that, and that is to shake you out of your Bitcoin.  But how could they do that and keep you from just buying back lower like a genius?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Searing]

I have no 'skillz' in timing anything in my life at all...why should this be any different?

That’s a little bit depressing. Maybe you just haven’t found your opportunity yet. The fact that you are here at all I would say makes your timing better than the vast majority of people on this planet. It may be difficult to see that now, but I bet in a few more years when you look back you’ll realize it is the truth.

Trump and Xi meeting now. This will either be really good or really bad for markets.

'


Timing and HODL I'll give you that....Timing on when to move sell that some claim to be able to do (sell on the high and buy on the low) er ...nope...

no skills in that...proven repeatedly....

[Searing]

Splashing out on FLAVOURED noodles!?

Get you!

Poor Univ Student Trick: Toss in a hot dog when the Ramen Noodles are boiling...2 meals in one!

[Searing]

Do you think this is the current market cycle?


Take a bold step

The price of Bitcoin has been rising and falling like a dick head without enough blood flow within the venous muscles.
Do you think this is the recent pattern that price of Bitcoin has been following?

As I've stated before. IF we have a quick ugly down turn (fast) btc will get cashed out on an emergency basis....in that folks are caught by surprise

with cc maxed out and job loss, etc, etc.

IF it is more 'gradual' to the same bottom on a down turn of whatever flavor we should be fine..in gradual means it will act like a store of value

anyway, IMHO.

my 2 satoshi's worth

[BTCETFInvestor]

My New BTC Mouse Pad!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

If Satoshi were alive today he would probably be laughing, Seeing how far Bitcoin has come today, Satoshi is truly a legend

A legend through and through, his/their efforts are the reason behind the success of digital currencies, bitcoin being the most important or as some people might say; the only important one.
But I don't think there have been any actual proof of him being dead, sure there has been no form of communication or anything to prove that his is still alive but right now anything said about his whereabouts is just speculation.

For all intents and purposes, it is safer to presume that Satoshi is dead rather than not dead, even though surely there is nothing wrong with speculating in regards to what he might do, say or think about bitcoin or any other topic, if he were not to be dead.

It is similar to the expressions about other famous and/or influential persons.  "What would [name and insert your famous and/or influential person here] do?"

I am not even proclaiming bitcoin as a religion, even though surely it is an amazing paradigm shifting phenomena that deserves whatever awe that is thrown in its direction.

"First red October in 7 years"
We still have 7 hours left... It can turn green Uptober

To me, these various deviations from expectation should help to show that dee cornz is not on as much of a schedule as "some folks" like to place it.

Not even showing anything spectacular - a mere 5.2% down - comes off like a BIG SO FUCKING WHAT? to this here cat.

October 31, 2008
I asked AI to explain the Bitcoin Whitepaper visually, I like it the result

A person who knows something about bitcoin would likely do better than the AI - especially since it starts out framing the matter (problem to be solved) as abilities to carry out payments - which seems wrong - even though payments is part of what bitcoin does yet it is not really solving payments - but instead attempting to solve non-inclusion and even corruption of money printers - even though it might not be capable of solving that by clearly and unambiguously saying that's what it is doing and/or trying to address - the corruption of money.

There probably is enough in that diagram to get started - even though some aspects come off as misleading, since if bitcoin is recognized as the most sound of monies, then incentives of individuals would be to spend their most sound money last, since it is the money that will hold and/or retain value, and so Gresham's law serves as an incentive for individuals who come to recognize and/or appreciate bitcoin's more true construction - the part that relates to and likely mostly causes the number go up angle of bitcoin... that not only incentivizes miners, but it also incentivizes individuals and the various other actors within Trace Mayers framework of the 7 network effects of bitcoin.

"First red October in 7 years"
We still have 7 hours left... It can turn green Uptober

Looks like we're headed back to 2018.

If we can reach 117k before the end of 7 hours. Then uptober will be green.
BTC

Wow!!!!  "Heading back to 2018."  That is a pretty lame interpretation in regards to where we are at currently and where we might be going from here.

You really believe that nonsense or what?  What motivates you to say it?  You must believe it, otherwise you wouldn't say it, correct?

...Not quite, a good example of keeping a secret key...
[edited out]

You have any thoughts of your own on the topic?

meh
we all know what the current administration would do if an alien invasion occurs:

CUT THE INTEREST RATE!!
then all will be well

As you seem to be suggesting, most, if not all, administrations seem intent to take advantage of any negative happenings to do what they want (whether it is good for us or not), and if there is not enough chaos happening in the real world in order to justify their chosen actions, they will go down the road of creating such chaos in order to do what they wanted to do anyhow.

Few more hours and the "Hunt for red October' would be accomplished, most likely, after 7 years.
Bitcoin just doesn't want to behave "expectedly".
Oh, well.
Here is to Moon-vember!
 

And if Moon-vember does not work out, then as an alternative, we will have Do-Uppity-cember... and if that does not work out.. "we" (royal perhaps?) will have to come up with something new for each month until we get to some ATH no later than March 31, 2026 (for reasons).  

Just kind of sitting and thinking.
I mean, it's a market's cliche, but certainly I've seen it in Bitcoin, some recent big hits, just a couple.

100K by 12/31! (I think this was 22?)
Uptober!  ('25)
But I'll predict one.

Well, markets over time for a 70% drop. ('26)
The way I see it, the pros are in this market now. And either they can really easily manipulate it, or they can't.  If they are cheating with paper Bitcoin then you have they can manipulate it totally.  But even if they're not cheating, they can use the method that I've been talking about for years, which is control the retail price oracle, and do volume over the counter.

So in the case they can't really control the market, then what's going to happen when we enter... winter?  I would say they would probably dampen the effect of the bear (compared to prior performance)  by fairly strong buying.

If they CAN have an influence on the market, then I think the question becomes...  How do they extract the greatest value?

There is only one answer to that, and that is to shake you out of your Bitcoin.  But how could they do that and keep you from just buying back lower like a genius?

Do you really think that the BIG money is all on the same side of this bitcoin and/or sound money thingie-ma-jiggie?  Do you believe that some of the BIG money folks who are seeming to be in favor of bitcoin and who are largely all in bitcoin are going to appreciate if they are manipulated out of their position?

Perhaps the various powers that be (that you seem to be imagining) can get Saylor/MSTR to either dump his coins or they will forcibly remove Saylor/MSTR from his coins?

Those kinds of "outrageous" and perhaps "necessary" actions might help us to get to a 70%-ish drop under current conditions?   Perhaps? Perhaps?

Otherwise I am having some difficulties seeing your visions that seem to include an assessment of "down before up," even though you have likely outlined fairly well what some of the powers that be would prefer to happen, since they cannot really help their level of greed.. but the mere fact that various powers that be have more greed, more cunning and more access to various "financial" and "manipulation" levers as compared to other rich peeps, it does not mean that the shit-twats always get their way in all regards, since if they were to have had gotten their way, we probably would still be in the sub $60ks..

.....and yeah, I understand, that you already think that we are going there and that the powers that be merely allowed the BTC price to pump to $126k-ish, but they have been in charge of what bitcoin has been doing the whole time, blah blah blah..  Pretty lame, even though sure what you are saying is plausible, but sounds like an overly pessimistic long-shot that is coming from a person who does not sufficiently trust in the power of bitcoin.. and so i can see why you are skeptical.. since "the little guy" hardly ever is allowed to actually win, even though bitcoin has been designed exactly in a way that "the little guy" can actually win in reality.. he just has to get the fuck off of his ass and start buying bitcoin in case he does not have any, and if he already has some bitcoin, but he does not have enough (or more than enough), then he should keep buying like a pro until he gets to a status of having enough or more than enough and stop fucking around with lame-ass negative Nancy conspiracy theories that may or may not end up happening.

I am pretty sure that you are not a bear, but you come up with some doosies sometimes, and even though I don't have problems considering some of those kinds of "out there" ideas, there likely still needs to be some kind of thread in your posting of these ideas to remind normies (especially normie newbies) that it is best (in their own personal interests - not just to save bitcoin blah blah blah) for an overwhelming majority of newbies (no coiners and/or low coiners) to keep buying bitcoin persistently, consistently, ongoingly, regularly and perhaps even aggressively, even if some variation of your overly and unnecessary negative (seemingly wet dream for bears) scenario ends up playing out.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Well, markets over time for a 70% drop. ('26)
<snip>

Quoting from a Pink Floyd song: "If ya don't eat yer meat, you can't have any pudding!'

..according to most..we did not "have our meat" yet [measly upside since 2021], so why would we have a pudding (in a form of a "sweet" 70% decline for the bottom fishers, lol)?

Market is chaotic, imho, for multiple and not immediately related reasons, most of which are macro.

[cAPSLOCK]

Do you really think that the BIG money is all on the same side of this bitcoin and/or sound money thingie-ma-jiggie?  Do you believe that some of the BIG money folks who are seeming to be in favor of bitcoin and who are largely all in bitcoin are going to appreciate if they are manipulated out of their position?

Well some of this would depend on definitions of things like "big money" etc.  No.  I do not think they are after the "big money" if we are talking about Saylor or Fink for example.  But Wall Street is playing now.  And they have realized Bitcoin is a finite asset.  And if their goal is to benefit from it, or control it, or destroy it... the strategy (ha) is the same.   They have to own a lot of it.

So they can accumulate from three main sources now.

1.  Miners.  Whatever the miners are selling is getting snapped up every day.
2.  OGs.  There are thousands of bitcoiners who are at a point now who feel they can live off their bitcoin, while being able to survive even the unlikely ~80% winter.  There will be more of these people each cycle (or period of time). And even the ones who were set in one of the last "cycles" may still be selling.  Even if they are selling just small amounts to maintain a baseline lifestyle I would imagine there are enough to provide quite a bit of the reason why we are flat for 2025.
3.  The people who either do not understand bitcoin or are just weak.  People who see it as an investment.  Maybe got into an ETF and now want to lock in the "gains" before the crypto bear they hear about constantly.

I think group 1 is insignificant, group 2 is bread and butter, and group 3 are the cherry on top.

I am speculating of course, but I think the powers that be would destroy bitcoin if they could.   But I also think they have likely realized they can't.  So they will own it.  And to own it they have to convince as many people as possible to sell.  The system is STILL set up in a way where this is VERY easy to exploit.  Firstly because these people have more money than the above average bitcoin holder can even imagine.  This gives them amazing power.  And secondly because the real market is no longer where the prices are set publicly.  These entities are not BUYING on Kraken/Bitstamp/Binance etc.  But they might buy EXTRA coins OTC to sell on retail to suppress the price oracles.

Luckily this is a limited edge.. but I imagine it is still there for now.

Perhaps the various powers that be (that you seem to be imagining) can get Saylor/MSTR to either dump his coins or they will forcibly remove Saylor/MSTR from his coins?

Those kinds of "outrageous" and perhaps "necessary" actions might help us to get to a 70%-ish drop under current conditions?   Perhaps? Perhaps?

I may be a fool.  But currently I buy Saylor's conviction.  So I think it will be very hard to CONVINCE him to sell...  They would have to drive him into having to cover... and even if they had the ability to do that, I think it would be the wrong play entirely.  Because they know they cant stop the BTC train OR Ms. Aldens train.

They have a LOT of power and ammo.  But no one can stop the sun from rising.

Or setting.

Otherwise I am having some difficulties seeing your visions that seem to include an assessment of "down before up," even though you have likely outlined fairly well what some of the powers that be would prefer to happen, since they cannot really help their level of greed.. but the mere fact that various powers that be have more greed, more cunning and more access to various "financial" and "manipulation" levers as compared to other rich peeps, it does not mean that the shit-twats always get their way in all regards, since if they were to have had gotten their way, we probably would still be in the sub $60ks..

I have to go and read what I have posted previously.  Because I know I can be dramatic... but I feel like this assessment is worse than what I really believe.  THough I know I can be dramatic.

One sec..

OK I am back.  Well, I can see where you might read negativity in my words.  But I actually think we are in a FANTASTIC position.  I am betting (a lot honestly) that we are NOT going to see another big bear.  I think the 70% you mention is very very unlikely.  About the worst I can se is a pullback to the ~ 65k realm.And I think that is in the 10-15% likelihood.

.....and yeah, I understand, that you already think that we are going there and that the powers that be merely allowed the BTC price to pump to $126k-ish, but they have been in charge of what bitcoin has been doing the whole time, blah blah blah..  Pretty lame, even though sure what you are saying is plausible, but sounds like an overly pessimistic long-shot that is coming from a person who does not sufficiently trust in the power of bitcoin..

Yes.  I have communicated badly.  I do not see it that way at all.  I see the "powers that be" to have extraordinary influence, but not THAT much.  They can count on the miners... and feed off the OGs who are allowing some of their hoard to support them (I am in this group... but as conservatively as possible).

But it is group 3 that I think is the most abused.  But it's always been that way.

I am pretty sure that you are not a bear, but you come up with some doosies sometimes, and even though I don't have problems considering some of those kinds of "out there" ideas, there likely still needs to be some kind of thread in your posting of these ideas to remind normies (especially normie newbies) that it is best (in their own personal interests - not just to save bitcoin blah blah blah) for an overwhelming majority of newbies (no coiners and/or low coiners) to keep buying bitcoin persistently, consistently, ongoingly, regularly and perhaps even aggressively, even if some variation of your overly and unnecessary negative (seemingly wet dream for bears) scenario ends up playing out.

I think I am just very dramatic.  I am not nearly as bearish as you are interpreting.  

In fact I am not bearish at all.

I think the tulip like volatility of Bitcoin's first 10+ years is starting to wind down.  In fact every cycle I am one of the ones saying "it is different this time".

And I do not want to say it here and look like the same fool again....  But I think I agree with what Saylor is intimating.

The is not going to be a big drop this time.  There may be a drop... I mean we are in one now.  But I do not see us going to the sub 50% from ATH, and will actually be surprised if we see that.

I also believe it is likely we are not done with this "cycles" bull.  In some ways I do not think we have started it entirely.

And THAT, I think is the machinations of wall street.  Confusing us... or perhaps BORING us out of our coins.

So..  I would be glad for you to point out where my proclamations are overly bearish... and that is not a claim I have not.  I am too feeble to really know what I said yesterday.  Or even this morning.

I am actually encouraged by the extreme bearish sentiment I see right now.

That said... we have been trending bearish for a while here, and many see this flat year as a failure.

I see it as a year that TPTB are doing everything they can to slow the rate that the BTC price rises, and that they cannot do this forever.  I believe we have a VERY bullish period in front us... By the end of the year?  I don't know... But I do not think we are about to enter "winter".

[ESG]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

-I have been following your work,
-thanks CBuddy!
-i'm gladfull with your  work.!!!



-What a bull run that swims, now it's bull walk!
.
.
-The difference between a small trader selling high and buying cheap to an institutional trader,
is only in the difference in profit, causing them to have more and more BTC accumulated,
and then the time will come when they have accumulated a lot,
and the small traders already addicted to selling and buying like geniuses,
will not work when they switch  to the , only 'BUY' mode.
-I also know that to discourage them from having Bitcoin, they are able to buy for double, and sell for half and bring down the price a lot, yes, they have a lot and a lot of power left for that, and then at the same time, they themselves are buying very cheap and accumulating., in this case, 'SELL' mode only!, ...' diamonds run'  ,   (...yes, yes mister, i know, that is extraodinary probability/example.... iknow this...)
.
 .And then over time, each large 'controlling institution' (govs), will have a massively larger proportion than the total of its population in control.
- Motivating them to always sell, as opposed to buying, ...

 -I think that for the first ones  btc laws that 'El Salvador' created, it greatly favored people to understand and buy, but the IMF intervened,....
.
 So, about buying and holding, whenever you can, it's a serious matter.
.
-
_
....then Buddy, the long-awaited last day of October is gone, ..Here I leave the chart with daily candlesticks that point to the closing of the month of October, with the
-Open in:114079-high of the month in:126272 the low in:103530 and the closing in:109554
.was high volatilty month!



________

...Not quite, a good example of keeping a secret key...
[edited out]

You have any thoughts of your own on the topic?

...
   ...yes?, ...maybe?, ...no?

....maybe be  the cause the price are turning in colours? , -what the colour the price are turning now?
-But perhaps, if you ask me clearly, I can answer correctly.?
-, I'm not being rude or anything like that, I'm asking politely, and I'm very attentively answering your question.
-Because you may be trying to warn me of something that I can and or cannot do here, or even not want to know about me here, for some reason, that I don't know.  _So, I can ask you to feel free to use this post as an example, which basically summarizes what I'm doing here, and point out what I can't do, I would be very grateful to know, especially coming from a super realistic person that I admony, which appears to be.. Or just as I see it..,(#)....
.."and the piano, it sounds like a carnival
   and microfone smells like a beer
  and  they sit at  the bar
 and put bread in my jar
and say, "man what are you doin'  here?"... (/#)
..
-ahh... Remembering that I am also aware that the month of October closed below its opening and I lost the bet I made with myself that the price would be above the opening price at closing, but... I hit the weekly range, at 110000~116000 and the unexpected volatility, ...But I'm not using that to justify anything....,also remembering that I am not being paid, nor do I have the will that this happens to make me have to come here to write anything.   -I just spend my time in what I need to come to be here in front, with a few windows open, among these, this one,... and really, otherwise I can do something, I would very much like you to tell me.
.
_____But closing the month very low at 110k can be a warning of resistance,? If there are those who have to sell, let them sell.  -Whoever has and wants to buy, who buys, understanding that it will be a new support for the new 154k high, let them buy and hold, and if it is the objective to make a profit, realize it!, if it is the objective to buy more at 151K, let them buy.If it is the objective of selling and buying cheaper, each one risks as they can, whether the risk is long or short term, it doesn't matter, if it is a belief, there is no problem, if it is a means of saving, betting, means for use, or even various needs that nowadays depend on needing to have bitcoin regardless of the value it is., I still don't stop thinking of BTC as a necessity in whatever value range it is. _I hope that what I'm writing here isn't encouraging anyone to do anything or something, because in the same way that 'cb' posts his order chart, I come here to tell you about how the market (BTC) is, and sometimes, or whenever I can, I quote who quoted me when necessary. but without encouraging anyone to do anything.
...

Save tonight, and fight the break of dawn
Come tomorrow, tomorrow I'll be gone

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com