Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[JayJuanGee]

I think the creation of various derivative financial instruments is kind of gross and kind of just another paper Bitcoin.

If we don't do it, someone else will do it.

Who is "we"?  You trying to turn this into a patriotic thing?

Of course, many bitcoiners are going to concede that bitcoin is for everyone, so you cannot stop bitcoin from being used by anyone who wants to, friends and enemies.. yet at the same time, if what the various financial instrument folks (whether talking about Backrock and the various ETFs or Saylor/MSTR and the various treasury companies) are doing can be considered as a kind of an attack on foundational level bitcoin and undermines bitcoin becaus of an attempt to prioritize using bitcoin through their instruments and systems and to vilify bitcoin being used in direct peer to peer ways, there are good reasons to announce and even to complain about such attack, even if you consider such attack to be coming from "the good guys.".. not very often that we have money-grubbing "Blackrock" portrayed as the good guys, unless you are some kind of a blinded fan-boy.

That is the world that we live in unfortunately. Better it be Saylor than some random shitcoiner VC leading this part of the industry, right?

For sure, since 2020 Saylor has had a lot of good ways of talking about bitcoin, he has pretty much shouted from the rooftops in respects to everyone needing to get into bitcoin, and he has had a lot of interesting ways of saying it, yet even some of his ways of talking about bitcoin have evolved in the years and any critical thinking person will not just blindly agree with Saylor merely because Saylor controls a lot of bitcoin. 

Some folks are rightfully skeptical of Saylor/MSTR because of how much bitcoin that he/MSTR controls and based on some of their tactics of using other people's money to get bitcoin in which they completely own the bitcoin (even though they tend to keep their bitcoin with custodians, like Coinbase, which is another angle that Saylor/MSTR has been rightfully criticized).

The narrative of Strategy imploding reminds me a lot of the death spiral type of FUD.  And the thing is I can certainly entertain the scenarios on how something like that could go down.

The funny thing or sad thing is that Strategy can not implode at all unless BTC does something stupid like -90% or more.

You are likely correct that they are prepared for quite high levels of BTC correction (perhaps 70% plus) and potentially for extensive periods of time (like a whole cycle).

They have little debt and obligations comparatively speaking to their total holdings. Some people think everything was bought with debt and BTC crashing a little harder would nuke Strategy. It is quite similar to the stupid death spiral type of FUD. These people that fall for this nonsense don't even do basic research, even if their name starts with Og.  

Sure.  There are a lot of folks who have no fucking clue how MSTR/Saylor have structured its various debt instruments. I don't claim to know a lot either, even though I know that frequently MTR/Saylor naysayers frequently automatically think about collateralized loans, and I am pretty sure that none of MSTR/Saylor's debts are related to collateralizing the assets. and several of the past loans they paid off, which means that they own a lot of the BTC unencumbered.  Furthermore, if MSTR/Saylor happens to have some collateralized debt it would not be in amounts that are materially significant.

Another thing that is presumed is that if the BTC price goes below MSTR's average cost per coin (which is around $77k) that MSTR saylor will have to do something, which are totally fantasy ideas.  If you completely own the coins then it does not matter if they are in profits or not, unless for some reason other obligations are not being met.

[cAPSLOCK]

Here is a FANTASTIC article by someone I have never seen before.  But this person's speculative read on what is actually happening behind the system and behind some of the sketchy stuff we see happening around MSTR for example.

This (possibly fantasy) narrative actually makes a LOT of sense as to why certain things are happening, and why we can see there is real tension between the Fed Rsrv, the shareholder banks (Jamie Dimon) and our currency savant Sec Treasury.

This explains a lot of the things that DJT's two elder sons say all the time.  (Because they know the plan.)  They are donkeys who want to look smart when the masses start to get it.

By the way... did you guys know Scott Bessent showed up at the DC "Pubkey" bar grand opening and hung out with all the Bitcoinners.

This article explains why the Bessent and Powell seem to be quiet arch enemies.  Why Bessent has been buffing up the Treasury and pulling as much power away from the FR as he can.

This explains clearly why JPM or trying to harm Strategy.

As usual, do not assign a political narrative to me please, and I think there are a LOT of ways this thing could be off, or only partially right.  Including this all being the setup for 6502 repeat.  Bessent has a past that makes look as much the villain for freedom as the superhero.

It's long.  But worth the read.

https://x.com/HodlMaryland/status/1991962431191490574

A monetary power struggle is erupting in plain sight - and almost no one understands the stakes. Here is my highly speculative take.

Over the past few months, a pattern has emerged across politics, markets, and media. Scattered headlines suddenly connect, market anomalies look less accidental, and institutional actors are behaving with unusual aggression. Something deeper is happening beneath the surface.
This is not a normal monetary cycle.
This is not traditional partisanship.
This is not “market volatility.”
What we are witnessing is a direct confrontation between two competing monetary regimes:
The old order... centered around JPMorgan, Wall Street, and the Federal Reserve.
 And the new order... centered around Treasury, stablecoins, and a Bitcoin-anchored digital architecture.

... ..  (go read it!)

PS this article reeks of AI.  But is actually very well written, and fronts a great theory.

[Richy_T]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[BTCETFInvestor]

FYI - Heavy Call Strikes at $120K–$140K with traders loading up on bullish call options, signaling high optimism for a potential breakout above six figures. There is year-end expiry amounting to $8.8B. The December 26 expiry is one of the largest ever, with $6.45B in calls vs. only $2.36B in puts. This imbalance is a highly bullish sentiment, but the December rally is expected to have swings and will not necessarily be smooth.

December is shaping up as a high-stakes month for Bitcoin options traders with massive open interest, bullish call positioning, and defensive hedging all converging tightly around the year-end expiry.

It is definitely bullish at this time when looking ahead toward mid-late December.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Hueristic]

[philipma1957]

I am pretty blitzed from eating both chocolate cheesecake and carrot cake.

Tuckahoe Cheese cake is wonderful.

https://www.tuckahoecheesecakes.com/

As a diabetic  it does knock one out but fuck it does taste good.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[vapourminer]

here, have a couple tubes on me

[philipma1957]

here, have a couple tubes on me

Should I do a jack shot or more carrot cake.  Hmm decisions.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[BTCETFInvestor]

I am pretty blitzed from eating both chocolate cheesecake and carrot cake.

Tuckahoe Cheese cake is wonderful.

https://www.tuckahoecheesecakes.com/

As a diabetic it does knock one out but fuck it does taste good.

Phil - You being a diabetic, the color of that tasty carrot cake probably reminded you of all your copper and got your blood-sugar spiked-up and all out-of-whack!  



Now you need a Jack shot to fix it!  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ESG]

including when she said NFT should be used reasonably?
Isn't that as subjective as what is spam?

-I refer to her personal opinion, only in this small cut that I linked,> .... and I don't find the rest of the video so interesting,.. not the professional/official opinion where she acts, well, this type of opinion of hers appears to be personal and not official opinion, she herself knows that there is no possibility of implementing it, even knowing that it solves the problems, just like those of this official opinion of hers that you mentioned..., no, I don't agree.

 -========================#========================-

-I don't know that there is tralala, and so many other reasons, this reason for this note on October 10....

THIS IS AN ANNOUNCEMENT FOR THE MSCI GLOBAL STANDARD INDEXES

EXTENSION OF THE CONSULTATION ON DIGITAL ASSET TREASURY COMPANIES

MSCI announced today an extension of its ongoing consultation with the investment community on the appropriate treatment of companies whose primary business involves Bitcoin or other digital asset treasury activities - including cases where capital-raising activities are primarily used to fund digital asset accumulation - within the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes.

As part of the consultation so far, some market participants noted that such companies may exhibit characteristics similar to investment funds, which are currently not eligible for index inclusion. Accordingly, MSCI proposes to exclude from the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes companies whose digital asset holdings represent 50% or more of their total assets.

MSCI welcomes feedback from market participants on the eligibility of such companies and the proposed 50% asset-based threshold. MSCI also invites input on whether additional parameters should be considered - for example, whether a company defines itself as a digital asset treasury company or has raised capital primarily to accumulate digital assets, in addition to the asset-based criterion.

-The consultation will remain open until December 31, 2025, and the final conclusions will be announced by January 15, 2026. MSCI proposes that any resulting changes would be implemented as part of the February 2026 Index Review.

Based on an initial analysis of available data sources, MSCI is sharing a preliminary list of potentially impacted securities meeting the proposed criteria within the MSCI All Cap Index universe. MSCI will continue to review data sources and refine the impact assessment if warranted.

MSCI will continue to not implement increases to the Number of Shares (NOS), Foreign Inclusion Factor (FIF), or Domestic Inclusion Factor (DIF) for METAPLANET and CAPITAL B, and will defer the implementation of any size-segment migrations for these securities as part of the November 2025 Index Review. Such treatment will also apply to other index constituents included in the preliminary list of impacted securities.

Non-index constituents included on the impacted list will not be considered for inclusion in the MSCI All Cap Index as part of the November 2025 Index Review.

THIS IS AN ANNOUNCEMENT FOR THE MSCI GLOBAL STANDARD INDEXES

                                     End of announcement.
                                     Further announcements may occur as needed.

---

 

JPMorgan warns of MicroStrategy delisting risk from major equity indices

MicroStrategy (now Strategy), the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, is facing its most consequential structural risk since Michael Saylor began transforming the software firm into a leveraged Bitcoin vehicle five years ago.

The warning comes from a new JPMorgan note that says the company may be removed from major equity indices — including the MSCI USA Index.

...

...in short, this JPMorgan gang, is tough!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Biodom]

including when she said NFT should be used reasonably?
Isn't that as subjective as what is spam?

-I refer to her personal opinion, only in this small cut that I linked,> .... and I don't find the rest of the video so interesting,.. not the professional/official opinion where she acts, well, this type of opinion of hers appears to be personal and not official opinion, she herself knows that there is no possibility of implementing it, even knowing that it solves the problems, just like those of this official opinion of hers that you mentioned..., no, I don't agree.

 -========================#========================-

-I don't know that there is tralala, and so many other reasons, this reason for this note on October 10....

THIS IS AN ANNOUNCEMENT FOR THE MSCI GLOBAL STANDARD INDEXES

EXTENSION OF THE CONSULTATION ON DIGITAL ASSET TREASURY COMPANIES

MSCI announced today an extension of its ongoing consultation with the investment community on the appropriate treatment of companies whose primary business involves Bitcoin or other digital asset treasury activities - including cases where capital-raising activities are primarily used to fund digital asset accumulation - within the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes.

As part of the consultation so far, some market participants noted that such companies may exhibit characteristics similar to investment funds, which are currently not eligible for index inclusion. Accordingly, MSCI proposes to exclude from the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes companies whose digital asset holdings represent 50% or more of their total assets.

MSCI welcomes feedback from market participants on the eligibility of such companies and the proposed 50% asset-based threshold. MSCI also invites input on whether additional parameters should be considered - for example, whether a company defines itself as a digital asset treasury company or has raised capital primarily to accumulate digital assets, in addition to the asset-based criterion.

-The consultation will remain open until December 31, 2025, and the final conclusions will be announced by January 15, 2026. MSCI proposes that any resulting changes would be implemented as part of the February 2026 Index Review.

Based on an initial analysis of available data sources, MSCI is sharing a preliminary list of potentially impacted securities meeting the proposed criteria within the MSCI All Cap Index universe. MSCI will continue to review data sources and refine the impact assessment if warranted.

MSCI will continue to not implement increases to the Number of Shares (NOS), Foreign Inclusion Factor (FIF), or Domestic Inclusion Factor (DIF) for METAPLANET and CAPITAL B, and will defer the implementation of any size-segment migrations for these securities as part of the November 2025 Index Review. Such treatment will also apply to other index constituents included in the preliminary list of impacted securities.

Non-index constituents included on the impacted list will not be considered for inclusion in the MSCI All Cap Index as part of the November 2025 Index Review.

THIS IS AN ANNOUNCEMENT FOR THE MSCI GLOBAL STANDARD INDEXES

                                     End of announcement.
                                     Further announcements may occur as needed.

---

 

JPMorgan warns of MicroStrategy delisting risk from major equity indices

MicroStrategy (now Strategy), the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, is facing its most consequential structural risk since Michael Saylor began transforming the software firm into a leveraged Bitcoin vehicle five years ago.

The warning comes from a new JPMorgan note that says the company may be removed from major equity indices — including the MSCI USA Index.

...

...in short, this JPMorgan gang, is tough!

So....if Buffet's BRK-A is buying companies and invest >50% in OTHER companies stock, then it is NOT an investment fund, but if a DAT does the same (acquire assets), then it is a fund. It seems that this is a deeply flawed logic. Singling out digital assets makes no sense.

EDIT: That said, I think it is a part of the conflict that someone posted about. We shall see what the SP500 decision would be on the 5th.