Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BTCETFInvestor]

if I am high on acid or shrooms I can see lots of small images with my eyes closed but they are more like a lot of cartoon gifs.  maybe 20 to 35 or a bit more and they can move slowly or flicker a bit.

more or less random with no way for me to move or change them but if I open my eyes I see the so called real world.

Phil- Do you remember a couple years ago the off-duty pilot on an Alaska Airlines flight shutting off the fuel to the plane's engine shortly after rotation? Well, that happened two days after he consumed magic mushrooms (psychedelic mushrooms)!  

An off-duty Alaska Airlines pilot, Joseph Emerson, attempted to cut fuel to a plane's engines in October 2023 after consuming psychedelic mushrooms two days prior. Emerson, who was experiencing a mental health crisis and sleep deprivation, believed he was dreaming at the time and was trying to "wake up".

► https://people.com/off-duty-pilot-who-tried-stop-plane-engine-mid-air-after-ingesting-psychedelic-mushrooms-avoids-jail-11851491


That shit scrambles up your mind! It might make you think your car can fly, so you drive your car (full of your copper wire) off a high bridge over water and end up in the water!

[BTCETFInvestor]

Vivek Ramaswamy's 'Strive' plans to raise $500 million through stock offerings. The capital is designated for acquiring additional Bitcoin.

► https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/strive-lines-up-500-to-buy-more-bitcoin

Strive, a publicly traded financial services firm, has pivoted to become a publicly traded Bitcoin treasury company (trading on Nasdaq under ticker ASST), acquiring and holding Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Vivek Ramaswamy, one of the smartest and richest people in the world, knows what Bitcoin will do!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Richy_T]

anyway i feel useless compared to you guys rebuilding washers dryers etc.

i can rebuild Fleck control heads and rebed/replace media in my water treatment tanks. other than that? if duct tape cant fix it, order a new one.

It's not much difference. For instance, for my dryer, the front panel comes off with a few screws. The felt glide pad is adhered to that with glue. Once the panel is out, the Drum is attached to the bearing with three screws. Once the drum is out, the other side of the bearing is held to the case with a couple of screws. Assembly is the reverse of disassembly.

One thing I will say is to make sure power to the dryer is turned off or things can get exciting.

[Lucius]

Vivek Ramaswamy's 'Strive' plans to raise $500 million through stock offerings. The capital is designated for acquiring additional Bitcoin.

► https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/strive-lines-up-500-to-buy-more-bitcoin
~snip~

Strive currently holds about 7,525 bitcoin, valued at roughly $695 million at recent market prices. That positions the firm as the 14th-largest publicly traded corporate holder of bitcoin....The company was co-founded in 2022 by entrepreneur and political figure Vivek Ramaswamy. Since launching its first exchange-traded fund in August 2022, Strive Asset Management has grown to oversee more than $2 billion in assets, according to company disclosures.

So it took him three years to grab about 7500 BTC, now he wants 5000+ BTC overnight which means he realized he was a little late. All those so-called geniuses who discovered Bitcoin in the last few years must be having nightmares where they see people buying BTC for a few hundred or even a thousand dollars.

[ESG]

Confronting news:

$3 Million in Seized Silk Road BTC Consolidated; Market Volatility Looms

Quick Breakdown

. U.S.-controlled wallets linked to Silk Road-era Bitcoin transferred more than $3 million worth of BTC to a new address.

. On-chain analysts view the movement as a possible precursor to liquidation or further law enforcement action.

. The transfer has revived concerns about government BTC sales and short-term price pressure on the market.

Silk Road crypto activity resurfaces as dormant Bitcoin wallets move again

Silk Road wallets show renewed Bitcoin flows

Silk Road-tagged wallets transferred about $3.14 million worth of Bitcoin BTC $92,626, according to Arkham. The activity involved 176 transactions, making it the most significant movement from these addresses in five years.

Earlier this year, the same wallets carried out only three small test transactions, suggesting that substantial activity had been paused.

The transfers this week were sent to an unknown cryptocurrency wallet with the address prefix bc1qn.

The primary Silk Road-associated wallets still hold about $38.4 million in Bitcoin.

The newly created address holds only the transferred $3.14 million.

-But, FOMO New's JPM Is Bullish today...LOL ,,,,>>>

Morning Minute: JPMorgan Says No Crypto Winter

The macro forces at play will outweigh the recent sell-off drivers, according to the major bank.


Bitcoin has been sliding, sentiment has been deep in Fear mode, and Crypto Twitter has been panicking.

But one major bank isn’t concerned.

JPMorgan analysts published new guidance pushing back against the idea that the latest drawdown marks a return to crypto winter.

In fact, the bank says this is just a “meaningful correction,” not the start of a new bear market

They pointed to several short-term drivers behind the recent sell-off:

.ETF outflows tied to basis-trade unwinds
.Liquidations hitting overly leveraged longs
.Seasonal illiquidity heading into year-end
.Soft macro ahead of today’s Fed decision
.The bank stressed that none of these dynamics signal a structural breakdown in crypto demand.

“The sell-off this past month triggered worries throughout crypto media and markets that the crypto ecosystem may be entering the next crypto winter. While we don’t anticipate the end of the current bull cycle, we do acknowledge this November pullback as meaningful.”

“Overall, we struggle to see these recent market pullbacks as emblematic of broader structural degradation within the crypto ecosystem, and thus we continue to be positive on the space.” - JPMorgan analysts

“This time really is different. We think crypto winters are a thing of the past.” - Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets

 Why It Matters

JPMorgan’s overall message is pretty simple: prices may have dropped, but the crypto bull thesis hasn’t changed.

They remain laser-focused on the major forces playing out in the crypto sector - ETF inflows, tokenization initiatives, bank participation, stablecoin growth.

All of those big-picture fundamental indicators are still moving forward (and one could argue that they’re accelerating).

And more broadly, both JPMorgan and BlackRock are bullish stocks (especially AI) into 2026, with BlackRock going full risk-on mode.

So their macro view is bullish as well.

That means the only real crypto bear case remaining is four-year cycle seasonality.

Unfortunately, this latest drawdown lined up nearly perfectly with a 4-year cycle view and thus bears are in control. Until they aren’t.

If/when prices do grind back up to near ATHs, the bull case that JPMorgan (and many others) has laid out will be shining brighter than ever. And 4-year truthers will have a hard decision to make.

And with the Fed meeting on deck today, that catalyst to ignite the run back to ATH could be here sooner than later. Time will tell…

Than...:

Current Bitcoin Setup is a Bull Trap, Expect Price to Drop Below $50,000

Bitcoin’s current price action between $85k and $95k is likely a bull trap after a record liquidation of longs, one analyst argues. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has been experiencing one of its worst Q4s in history. Still, early December has shown some signs of price recovery, reclaiming the $90k level after revisiting the $81k support in November.

However, the analyst in question believes that the current price recovery below $100k support level is nothing but an eyewash; a bull trap designed for unwary long traders who think we are in for a strong showing at the start of 2026. Many of them have already tweeted regarding a strong Q1 2026 showing, arguing that the bull market and by extension the altseason have been delayed, not cancelled altogether.

But Leshka, with over 170,000 followers on X (formerly Twitter), is unfazed and believes traders are falling for a classic bull trap pattern that will eventually lead to major losses for the crypto market, trapping unsuspecting users on the wrong side of the trend for a long time.

They tweeted:

“exact the same cycle as 2021

bull trap is loading

then $BTC fall to $40,000”

LOLLL

Where is the FOMO?  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JimboToronto]

jimmy bitz?

wtf is jimmy bitz?

A bot trying to translate Gembitz?


Try asking asUHWEceyc.

jimmy bitz, an A minus bitcointalk account

[cAPSLOCK]

"JP Morgan Says No Crypto Winter"
https://decrypt.co/351657/jpmorgan-analysts-doubt-crypto-winter-despite-meaningful-bitcoin-sell-off

Okay, okay, you guys can come out from hiding now.

I figured it out.  I can't believe it took me so long.

This is all just a big joke. I've never seen such a fantastic 15-year-long joke play out like this in my life.  

Kudos!!!  Standing ovation! Encore!.

Actually, no, I don't know if I want an encore. 😁


(on the other hand, my conspiracy theory riddled think meat can't hear any big announcement like this from one of the big banks where I don't think that they're saying exactly the opposite of what they know they're about to make happen, but I don't know. Maybe they just want to look right for once.)

[OutOfMemory]

anyway i feel useless compared to you guys rebuilding washers dryers etc.

i can rebuild Fleck control heads and rebed/replace media in my water treatment tanks. other than that? if duct tape cant fix it, order a new one.

It's not much difference. For instance, for my dryer, the front panel comes off with a few screws. The felt glide pad is adhered to that with glue. Once the panel is out, the Drum is attached to the bearing with three screws. Once the drum is out, the other side of the bearing is held to the case with a couple of screws. Assembly is the reverse of disassembly.

One thing I will say is to make sure power to the dryer is turned off or things can get exciting.

I opened the back cover, under which the heating sits (20 short screws), then i have direct access to the bearing, which is held with 4 screws. When i remove them, the drum sits a little lower (perfect for swapping the belt, which is behind the next layer of sheet), i can pull out the bearing after removing the E-ring and washer on the axle. It was a plastic bearing (Teflon or Nylon?), pretty yellowish and totally dry, with some brown stain on it. I cleaned it and it was rough inside, so i guess some dust/debris has worked itself into there. The axle is polished steel, so the lubrication (silicone grease) should do for quite a while, because the rough surface always keeps a little of lubricant in there. I will look up the part to order it ahead of the next time the thing starts to squeak.

I really was expecting a sealed ball bearing, but the manufacturer seems to include a little bit of planned obsolescence regarding the mechanics.

Putting it back together just requires to lift the drum using a piece of board in the right length (a few mm longer than the distance to the floor, there's room for tilting) until the screw holes of the bearing housing are aligned to the thread holes. Easy and doesn't need much space.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

It's no fun losing your life over a washing machine!

Are you talking from experience?

I thought that there could be something "off" about you.

Vivek Ramaswamy's 'Strive' plans to raise $500 million through stock offerings. The capital is designated for acquiring additional Bitcoin.

► https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/strive-lines-up-500-to-buy-more-bitcoin
~snip~

Strive currently holds about 7,525 bitcoin, valued at roughly $695 million at recent market prices. That positions the firm as the 14th-largest publicly traded corporate holder of bitcoin....The company was co-founded in 2022 by entrepreneur and political figure Vivek Ramaswamy. Since launching its first exchange-traded fund in August 2022, Strive Asset Management has grown to oversee more than $2 billion in assets, according to company disclosures.

So it took him three years to grab about 7500 BTC, now he wants 5000+ BTC overnight which means he realized he was a little late. All those so-called geniuses who discovered Bitcoin in the last few years must be having nightmares where they see people buying BTC for a few hundred or even a thousand dollars.

I had been thinking that there are quite a few folks who ar presuming BTC prices to go back to below $70k (which coincidentally was the BTC price prior to the Trump pump), and there have been times in bitcoin's history where certain stair steps UPpity take place and the price does not go back down to those earlier steps... yet we might not know for years and years and years that certain price points are never going to be reached again, ever.

Historically, one of the best ways to prepare for such UPpity stairsteps is to always be buying, and don't be fucking around trying to figure out dips or no dips.  Sure, if some dips happen to fall within your ongoing buying and you ar able to spare some extra money during the dips, then no problem go ahead and buy a little extra - even though it has been a more sound practice to have had always had been buying, and likely those kinds of times are not going to go away in the future, even though we have BIGGER players in the mix who are trying to make it seem as if BTC price dynamics have changed beyond our earlier and sometimes uncomfortable patterns.

There are guys who get maniacally focused on buying the dip and trying to figure out how to buy bitcoin in a most efficient way, and many times the guys who had been ongoingly buying, even if their cost might have ended up being a wee bit higher than they could have had been are ending up way better off since they have way more coin than if they had approached bitcoin from a more timid (and whimpy) approach that focuses on dips that may or may not end up happening.  Sure, those dip buyers might get lucky, yet I have my doubts about their doing better than the consistent, persistent, ongoing, regular and perhaps even aggressive buyer of dee coinz.

Regarding the leverage and the use of other people's money, sure it might work for richie folks to be sucking value out of retail in order to get coinz for themselves while retail is stuck with paper claims and still not really realizing the self-custody power of bitcoin.

"ZyCrypto, By Talha Arshad -December 10, 2025

LOLLL
Where is the FOMO?  

That price projection looks very wishful.  I would truly be willing to bet against such a drop, and it seems that a lot of folks are shooting for fantasylandia prices that are horey sheit low, while at the same time, they are going to be quite lucky if they can bring BTC prices below the April 2025 low of $74,434.. and it could well end up being the case that our $80,537 low from November 21 ends up being the low for this local dip (yet it is hard to know, maybe only around 50/50 odds at this time, since we are still ONLY around 15% above that current $80,537 local bottom. 

We get back into a classic and ever repeating situation that involves guys failing/refusing to prepare themselves for either price direction, and in bitcoin especially, the failure/refusal to prepare for up is quite the repeated problem, especially given that we seem to still only have around 1% of world-wide adoption of this asset... so many retail are getting fucked out of Bitcoin while there seems to be a more isolated battle going on and also attempts to co-opt and absorb bitcoin into various centralized and custodial systems, so many folks continue to believe that exposure to bitcoin and bitcoin is the same thing.

[BitHodlers]

That price projection looks very wishful.  I would truly be willing to bet against such a drop, and it seems that a lot of folks are shooting for fantasylandia prices that are horey sheit low, while at the same time, they are going to be quite lucky if they can bring BTC prices below the April 2025 low of $74,434.. and it could well end up being the case that our $80,537 low from November 21 ends up being the low for this local dip (yet it is hard to know, maybe only around 50/50 odds at this time, since we are still ONLY around 15% above that current $80,537 local bottom.  

We get back into a classic and ever repeating situation that involves guys failing/refusing to prepare themselves for either price direction, and in bitcoin especially, the failure/refusal to prepare for up is quite the repeated problem, especially given that we seem to still only have around 1% of world-wide adoption of this asset... so many retail are getting fucked out of Bitcoin while there seems to be a more isolated battle going on and also attempts to co-opt and absorb bitcoin into various centralized and custodial systems, so many folks continue to believe that exposure to bitcoin and bitcoin is the same thing.

It is usually people who sold or that have opened shorts that start writing false analysis about the price movements that are actually just wishful FUD. The more people that they can convince the better chances they have to materialize their predictions that is why they try so hard. Generally almost all predictions on these platforms by randoms are completely baseless, even if they try to find random patterns in the chart and make some drawings.

[AlcoHoDL]

It's no fun losing your life over a washing machine!

Are you talking from experience?

I thought that there could be something "off" about you.

[...]

Haha, still alive, but I've had my fair share of jolts from touching live parts of equipment...

DIY maintenance is cool and rewarding, but you've got to understand and respect the laws of nature, or you could end up in need of repair yourself!

[BitHodlers]

Haha, still alive, but I've had my fair share of jolts from touching live parts of equipment...

DIY maintenance is cool and rewarding, but you've got to understand and respect the laws of nature, or you could end up in need for a repair yourself!

Can I repair myself for cheap or should I call a repairman in this case?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

Haha, still alive, but I've had my fair share of jolts from touching live parts of equipment...

DIY maintenance is cool and rewarding, but you've got to understand and respect the laws of nature, or you could end up in need of repair yourself!

Can I repair myself for cheap or should I call a repairman in this case?

When in doubt, always call a repairman!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

All of the models are broken. All of the assumptions are on shaky ground.

This is new territory.

[philipma1957]

It's no fun losing your life over a washing machine!

Are you talking from experience?

I thought that there could be something "off" about you.

[...]

Haha, still alive, but I've had my fair share of jolts from touching live parts of equipment...

DIY maintenance is cool and rewarding, but you've got to understand and respect the laws of nature, or you could end up in need of repair yourself!

If you are not in USA and are working on a 240volt set be careful