Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JimboToronto]

I wonder how Proudhan is doing. 

Probably living happily ever after.

[cAPSLOCK]

I wonder how Proudhan is doing. 

Probably living happily ever after.

I would expect so, yes.

But I'm curious if he's getting that itch to come tell us that it's over, that it's finally completely over.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

To me, bitcoin going down 30-32% simply predicts the fate of the stock market in the next 2-4 mo: probably 10-15% down, but could be even 20%.
I raised a bit of cash, but I already had some even before.

Overall, high Shiller's CAPE (39.2 now, was 41 before) indicates that either a top is close or a top is just a few short months away.
After that, maybe a few years (up to a decade) of low returns (a la 2000-2010) with wild gyrations.
Of course, if markets would drop 30-50%, they would be a buy.
Bitcoin could become counter-cyclical, though.

Sure bitcoin is more liquid, so it has been inclining itself towards being a leading indicator in various macro scenarios - though we might not be able to determine in advance any kind of specific performance, even if we might identify some correlation when we might look at it (bitcoin) as a leading indicator.

For example, the fact that bitcoin had been crashing more in recent times might give it more room to return back to its previous levels, and stocks and/or other assets (including gold) could end up staying more stagnant, relatively speaking.  Surely in recent times gold has also been getting quite a bit of attention in regards to its own sussing out of uncertainties in the market and then some gravitation of governments into gold, which then contributes to some retail contagion.

Your proclamation that bitcoin could become counter-cyclical just shows that you are arguing out of both sides of your mouth - and maybe in the end, some of "us" could end up interpreting you as proclaming that bitcoin is not necessarily correlated to various traditional assets even though in the short-term we have some correlation.. but in the longer term (and broader picture) bitcoin is not really as correlated as it seems to be.

By the way, all of us, likely recognize and appreciate that bitcoin can go through relatively long periods of seeming correlation, amnd then all of a sudden "poof," it has just done a bit of an UPpity stair-steppening. .and we might not be sure in regards to the extent to which earlier prices might be revisited, yet in the ,longer term we can zoom back and recognize that there were many points in bitcoin's price history that a stair-steppening occurred and it might have taken a few years before we could start to feel comfort that prices lower than the stair-steppening would not occur any more...  

I could give some examples - yet some of the examples are more clear than others and sometimes, there would be some semblance of a revisiting some vicinity of the bouncing off point.. but really not quite getting there or the bottom and bouncing off point becomes a bit convoluted.. and so these kinds of times can get excitement of bears and bitcoin naysayers while ending up not really going back to earlier bouncing off prices as the bears (and the bitcoin naysayers) were anticipating to be within reasonable and plausible cards...

O.k... I will venture some numbers and dates:  Our move up to $500 in late 2015 and then our move up to $1k in early 2017 and then our move up to $3k in late 2017 and our move up to $20k in late 2020 (even though that $20k was revisited and even breached for several months from June 2022 until March 2023).  Future stairsteppings of dee cornz are still to be found out, yet I get the sense that our move from $27k to $50k in late 2023 and into early 2024 ended up being our most recent confirmed stair-steppening.. I also get the sense that we could go through another stair-steppening in the near future (even though it is seeming that we are falling outside of the cycle for such). yet part of the problem is that it sometimes can take a couple years or more in order to start to really get a sense of confirmation that such stair-steppening had ended up creating some semblance of a floor at the lower parts of the bouncing off point... meaning that the bottom keeps moving up and the possibilities of how low of bottoms are possible keeps moving up (in bitcoin many times, so far) having some synchronicity (not exact) with the 200-WMA).  

I wonder how Proudhan is doing.  

Probably living happily ever after.

I would expect so, yes.

But I'm curious if he's getting that itch to come tell us that it's over, that it's finally completely over.

I agree.  This would be a good time for proudhon to chime in, since there seem to be a lot (more than usual, perhaps?) of current bitcoin doubters.  Yet, I am wondering if he might not be well since there have been other opportunities for him to troll us in the last couple of years, yet he has not posted since March 2024, even though his profile shows that he was active in April 2025..

[wachtwoord]

I wonder how Proudhan is doing. 

In my head he's never not singing his song! 

[cAPSLOCK]

I wonder how Proudhan is doing. 

In my head he's never not singing his song! 

You know, if I wasn't a lazy guy, maybe I would take this apart and pitch up her vocals for her. The performance isn't bad, but the pitch is all over the place.

https://youtu.be/A7TuFy0fcuw

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

Someone posted a very good chart for RSI and now it is gone

[Paashaas]

Someone posted a very good chart for RSI and now it is gone

My apologies BitHolders i screwed it up.

A lot of people have been asking for an update on this chart, so I’ll just leave this here for anyone who needs to see it.
 
This shows the average BTC trajectory following an oversold RSI reading, with RSI falling below 30 at t=0.
 
So far, it’s been pretty bang on.
 
Unless you believe the 4-year cycle is still in play, which we don’t, this chart should hold up contextually over time.

No, it won’t be perfect, but assuming the bull market isn’t already over, it’s a useful chart to keep in mind.
 
As we’ve outlined many times, based on our work on the business cycle, the current path of financial conditions, and our expectations for overall liquidity, the balance of probabilities is that this cycle extends well into 2026.
 
In that world, the 4-year cycle is dead.
 
Remember, the 4-year cycle was never about the halving, despite widespread belief that it is, but instead has always been driven by the public debt refinancing cycle, as outlined in our work at GMI, which post-COVID was pushed out by one year.

In our view, the 4-year cycle is now officially broken because the weighted average maturity of the debt term structure has increased.

And the bigger picture is that there is still a vast amount of interest expense that needs to be monetized, which has far exceeded GDP growth.

Another thing to keep in mind is that bases can take time to form and usually come with plenty of chop before the bigger up-move kicks in.

Finally, let me repeat what I said when I first posted this chart last month.
 
If you think the bull market is over and we are now facing twelve months of pain, this chart is not for you. Move along...

x

[BitHodlers]

Someone posted a very good chart for RSI and now it is gone

My apologies BitHolders i screwed it up.

All good I thought I was hallucinating. The cake I ate had an unexpected alcoholic content and I was hungry before I tried it. 

x

Damn that would be a sight to see. Insane recovery, new ATH, and also some bets and many forecasts here would be settled. I can't wait!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Someone posted a very good chart for RSI and now it is gone

My apologies BitHolders i screwed it up.

For some reason, I had not realized it,  but BitHolders is a plural.

A natural "we"  

That could be a good thing.

Perhaps?

hahahaha


Regarding price of dee cornz today.. Yeah, sure our lil fake out (from 6 hours ago) was a bit disturbing since it went by so quickly and then my coins ended up being worth what they were worth only an hour earlier.. and maybe the dip even brought us down further than where we had started... .. so yeah largely from $87k to $90k and then back down to $86k.. largely within about an hour.. perhaps an hour and a half if we are more loosely describing the timeframe of today's price excitement (mini-rally).  

[Agbam]

JJG & OOM - Both of you dogpiling lying scumbag assholes can go straight to hell. Fuck you, you low-life dipshit bully know-it-all thugs. Both of you have shit for brains...  

Hoping you two scumbags experience serious Karma consequences for your pathetic bullying actions... Think of me when it happens to you, bastards!  

I hope I've made myself clear about how I feel about you two low-IQ scum idiots!    

Are you still on this shit?…. Thought you were done with this?
Guess a leopard never sheds its Skin.  Grow up man!

[BitHodlers]

For some reason, I had not realized it,  but BitHolders is a plural.

A natural "we"  

That could be a good thing.

Perhaps?

hahahaha

It could, as long as nobody claims that my pronouns start with they or some shit like that. 

Regarding price of dee cornz today.. Yeah, sure our lil fake out was a bit disturbing since it went by so quickly and then my coins ended up being worth what they were worth only an hour earlier.. and maybe the dip even brought us down further than where we had started... .. so yeah largely from $87k to $90k and then back down to $86k.. largely within about an hour.. perhaps an hour and a half if we are more loosely describing the timeframe of today's price excitement (mini-rally). 

Was there any relation to general market openings or ETFs? Someone should build a website to track price movements in relation to this. Just a few days ago someone talked about this here I think.

[asUHWEceyc]

Charles Edwards warned Bitcoin's price could fall below $50,000 if it lacks quantum computing resistance by 2028. Quantum machines could expose private keys.
~snip~

This is called cheap PR - because quantum computers will not be a threat to BTC for at least another decade (probably much more), and when they become a threat, they will certainly not attack BTC first, but all other systems that are protected by the same encryption. In addition, if BTC is located at an address that has not made a single transaction, then there is not even a public key with which a quantum computer could carry out an attack.

Therefore, the article is ordinary PR nonsense that has nothing to do with anything, and that shittytelegraph you quote is one of the worst clickbait garbage that exists.

Best of all, bitcoin is the public canary for a "quantum" computing physics breakthrough.

However, to disagree- and as a thought experiment per your suggestion, if in 10 years a)a usable quantum thingy comes into being and b)Bitcoin spot is a modest 900k in real terms- the richest UTXOs on the network by today's concentration (and for which many edges exist) will be worth upwards of $150-200b each : hardly non-first tier targets.

Obviously these bounties will be considerably more valuable should corn appreciate with greater steepliness.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

JJG & OOM - Both of you dogpiling lying scumbag assholes can go straight to hell. Fuck you, you low-life dipshit bully know-it-all thugs. Both of you have shit for brains...  

Hoping you two scumbags experience serious Karma consequences for your pathetic bullying actions... Think of me when it happens to you, bastards!  

I hope I've made myself clear about how I feel about you two low-IQ scum idiots!    

Are you still on this shit?…. Thought you were done with this?
Guess a leopard never sheds its Skin.  Grow up man!

Not until those two thug scumbags JJG & OOM stops their lying and bullying. If they continue their shit, I continue.  Stick it up your ass, punk!    

[BTCETFInvestor]

Charles Edwards warned Bitcoin's price could fall below $50,000 if it lacks quantum computing resistance by 2028. Quantum machines could expose private keys.
~snip~

This is called cheap PR - because quantum computers will not be a threat to BTC for at least another decade (probably much more), and when they become a threat, they will certainly not attack BTC first, but all other systems that are protected by the same encryption. In addition, if BTC is located at an address that has not made a single transaction, then there is not even a public key with which a quantum computer could carry out an attack.

Therefore, the article is ordinary PR nonsense that has nothing to do with anything, and that shittytelegraph you quote is one of the worst clickbait garbage that exists.

@Lucius - I didn't say I believed it, but if the articles are cheap PR, or complete nonsense - at least now you know such articles are out there floating around, whether you like it or believe it, or not - right? So, don't blame the messenger...

[philipma1957]

they play btc shorts and want to get a dump under 80 they bet on say 79.5k