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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26909166 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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December 22, 2025, 04:01:15 PM


Explanation
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December 22, 2025, 04:07:29 PM
Merited by WatChe (1)

Why gold price went so high in last two years?
Folk are fed up with fiat savings due to bad experiences with inflation. Financially conscious investors are buying potential  assets for future instead of fiat savings. Most central banks consider gold as one of the most valuable assets and reserve it as a stable asset. I think this is the opportunity that most investors are taking advantage of.

Whenever any market goes extraordinary high, it takes correction. Is that true for gold also?
Gold price correction can happen but since its mining process is expensive and it is one of the most precious metals in the world, its negative impact on the global market is very limited.
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December 22, 2025, 04:59:59 PM

[edited out]
Ehhh...no...that coin is down from 181 to 126 in the last year (down 31%), so it does what is expected of it.
BCH, on the other hand, is an inferior bitcoin fork that does not have a network effect, supposedly.
Yet, it is up 28.7% vs down 9% for bitcoin (in the last 12 mo)...I don't have an answer, but I am curious of the cause, that's all.
Both coins are POW, of course.
Flailing the hands and saying that it does not matter does not compute the answer, imho.

Yes, you are totally free to invest your time, energy and value however you like, including throwing money at random shitcoins because they seem to possibly maybe perhaps "have a chance."

That is a way to stay unfocused and even whimpy in your approach to actual value, namely bitcoin.

As i said before, if you did not split bch from btc in 2017, they exist together as if the split never occurred.
surely, i would have to split them if i want to sell send them, but i don't.
I am not about to start buying bch, this is clear.
In new purchases, i only buy btc.


ftfy
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December 22, 2025, 05:01:15 PM


Explanation
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December 22, 2025, 05:23:19 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1)

A see something controversial in the charts:

Since Dec 2022 low (3 years):

BCH outperformed Bitcoin during both the last three and one year time frames:

BCH at 97.7 at Dec 2022 low, now 624.12 (up 538.8%)
BCH at 480.65 one year ago, now 624.12 (up 29.84%)

BTC at 15782 at Nov 2022 low, now 87892 (up 456.9%)
BTC at 100070 one year ago, now 87892 (down 12.17%)

My read: there are some parties or a hedge fund (or a multiple of those) that are actively accumulating BCH in the last three years, accelerating in the last year and at the same time the same funds might have been shorting btc (the latter suggestion is a stretch, but could be a logical path).

I can easily see how bch can make itself more "sexy" in the short term...beware.
What would happen to the sentiment in btc if outperformance of bch would increase?
Of course, those bitcoins that were not split since 2017 would get both chains appreciation or the lack of it.

So a shitcoin outperforms Bitcoin in a bull market.... how special  Roll Eyes  

And all the other shitcoins that are doing the same... I guess they must be bought by hedge founds too right?

BCH... Pfff... I remember some (one?) of us here in WO promoting BCH back in 2017-2018. Had they converted their BCH to BTC at that time, they would now be much, MUCH richer. But, ego is a double-edged sword.

Goes to show that short-term performance doesn't mean anything.

Zoom out to see the bigger picture.



Edit: Zoom-Out performance for the exact same period of 8 years:

BCH at $1125 at Dec 2017 low, now $592 (DOWN 47%, after 8 years)
BTC at $9370 at Dec 2017 low, now $90205 (UP 863%, after 8 years)

Bitstamp prices.

I sold my BCH way too late.

2017, I didn't want to make a decision on which fork market would choose.

And after it was clear that BTC was the one, I still kept BCH because it was the only coin with the same mining algo. So if something where to happen to the BTC chain, I thought many miners would switch to BCH. So it was always a kind of a hedge for me.

But yeah I'd have over 30% more BTC now, if I had sold earlier. It was an expensive hedge, if it ever was one at all  Roll Eyes
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December 22, 2025, 05:32:22 PM

2017, I didn't want to make a decision on which fork market would choose.
Big mistake. Every fork is a shitcoin, it can never be Bitcoin. There is nothing to think about here besides the best timing to sell it. It was during the pump where Roger Ver tricked many people into believing BCH would flip Bitcoin. It was an organized pump in which he made a lot of money and a lot of naive people lost sadly..

But yeah I'd have over 30% more BTC now, if I had sold earlier. It was an expensive hedge, if it ever was one at all  Roll Eyes
At the very peak I think it was even 50%, not sure.
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December 22, 2025, 05:53:10 PM
Last edit: December 22, 2025, 06:04:20 PM by Biodom

A see something controversial in the charts:

Since Dec 2022 low (3 years):

BCH outperformed Bitcoin during both the last three and one year time frames:

BCH at 97.7 at Dec 2022 low, now 624.12 (up 538.8%)
BCH at 480.65 one year ago, now 624.12 (up 29.84%)

BTC at 15782 at Nov 2022 low, now 87892 (up 456.9%)
BTC at 100070 one year ago, now 87892 (down 12.17%)

My read: there are some parties or a hedge fund (or a multiple of those) that are actively accumulating BCH in the last three years, accelerating in the last year and at the same time the same funds might have been shorting btc (the latter suggestion is a stretch, but could be a logical path).

I can easily see how bch can make itself more "sexy" in the short term...beware.
What would happen to the sentiment in btc if outperformance of bch would increase?
Of course, those bitcoins that were not split since 2017 would get both chains appreciation or the lack of it.

So a shitcoin outperforms Bitcoin in a bull market.... how special  Roll Eyes  

And all the other shitcoins that are doing the same... I guess they must be bought by hedge founds too right?

BCH... Pfff... I remember some (one?) of us here in WO promoting BCH back in 2017-2018. Had they converted their BCH to BTC at that time, they would now be much, MUCH richer. But, ego is a double-edged sword.

Goes to show that short-term performance doesn't mean anything.

Zoom out to see the bigger picture.



Edit: Zoom-Out performance for the exact same period of 8 years:

BCH at $1125 at Dec 2017 low, now $592 (DOWN 47%, after 8 years)
BTC at $9370 at Dec 2017 low, now $90205 (UP 863%, after 8 years)

Bitstamp prices.

I approach it from more of a hypothesis perspective. Yes, over the long time period, bitcoin is VASTLY superior to its main fork.
So, the hypothesis is that bitcoin should outperform the fork (due to many factors, including the network effect).
However, I noticed that during the last year, there is a deviation from this trend (and that was the gist on my original post).
It could be a wobble, and most likely it is, but that deviation persisted in both one year and the 3 years chart analysis.

What does it tell me: perhaps, either that a few concentrated entities are pushing the forks trade OR that bitcoin price is under a price suppression from some large entity (ies) like nation states. Imho, this "deviation" is worth following...it might disappear in a year or less, but I cannot predict it.
I am not suggesting to buy the fork-that would be most likely a wrong thing to do and I am not doing it.
Then: what i suggest to do?
To simply Observe the trend.

TL;DR: A strange deviation in prices in the last 1-3 years that contradicts the prior established trend (for now).
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December 22, 2025, 06:01:18 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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December 22, 2025, 06:03:15 PM

[edited out]
Ehhh...no...that coin is down from 181 to 126 in the last year (down 31%), so it does what is expected of it.
BCH, on the other hand, is an inferior bitcoin fork that does not have a network effect, supposedly.
Yet, it is up 28.7% vs down 9% for bitcoin (in the last 12 mo)...I don't have an answer, but I am curious of the cause, that's all.
Both coins are POW, of course.
Flailing the hands and saying that it does not matter does not compute the answer, imho.

Yes, you are totally free to invest your time, energy and value however you like, including throwing money at random shitcoins because they seem to possibly maybe perhaps "have a chance."

That is a way to stay unfocused and even whimpy in your approach to actual value, namely bitcoin.

As i said before, if you did not split bch from btc in 2017, they exist together as if the split never occurred.
surely, i would have to split them if i want to sell send them, but i don't.
I am not about to start buying bch, this is clear.
In new purchases, i only buy btc.


ftfy

yeah, of course
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December 22, 2025, 06:04:48 PM


Quote
At a press conference today, President Donald Trump said he’ll review the case of Keonne Rodriguez.


https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/trump-to-consider-pardon-samourai-wallet

https://xcancel.com/i/status/2000680350578594104


DIRECT VIDEO LINK:

https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/2000679123295830023/vid/avc1/1280x720/HJRvQbocW6bjRZ8F.mp4
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December 22, 2025, 06:13:56 PM
Merited by WatChe (1)



I was doing research on Gold price and saw the price chart for last 5 years. From 2021 to 2023, increase in price of gold was steady but in year 2024 and 2025 there is enormous increase in price of Gold. I have two questions in my mind:

Why gold price went so high in last two years?

Whenever any market goes extraordinary high, it takes correction. Is that true for gold also?


There will be a correction, but nobody knows from which price it would start.
Case in point: gold went from $35 in 1971 (when the gold price was fixed) to around $850 in January of 1980. Inflation adjusted, it was about $2490/oz.
After that it was declining for 20 years (!) to a bottom of about $256 in year 2000 (close to the the infamous "Brown bottom" when BOE sold essentially a large chunk of of it's gold for $275/oz).
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December 22, 2025, 06:23:27 PM
Last edit: December 22, 2025, 07:34:54 PM by Hueristic

Brought tear to my eye, not Biff dieing in a fiery wreck he signed up for that, but his wife and kids.
Horrible way to go.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0bzOnD0vA4



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December 22, 2025, 07:01:15 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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December 22, 2025, 07:10:24 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

I just had a thought.  What good is an automatic coffee maker if it doesn't make Turkish coffee?
Everyone needs to get one of these too Smiley


What pushed me over the edge on mine was the cappuccino capability. So an automatic milk frother was a requirement. The machine I actually wanted is like $3k though (I think a brand mentioned earlier in the thread) so I did go for a somewhat cheaper option.
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to "non-custodial"


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December 22, 2025, 07:28:55 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

[edited out]
I told you over the years that the idea that I purchased 20btc for 5K is incorrect and it was just an example in one of my posts to show that, theoretically, you didn't have to be a high income individual to purchase a significant amount of btc in 2014-2015. I posted this way back, but you seem to latch on it...similar to your 'obsession' with that 0.63btc number of yours Wink.

It is still a good example to compare/contrast certain styles and mindsets that involve strategically attempting to time buys versus strategies that ongoingly buy.

It is a never ending debate that guys have on this forum in regards to how to attempt to manage bitcoin buys over the years whether there are strategic attempts to find bottoms and save up for potential bottoms versus ongoing buying.  I frequently proclaim that the finding bottoms approach is inferior and is more whimpy than the ongoing buying approach... not only in what actually would happen in regards to quantity of bitcoin accumulated but also in regards to he comparative mindset in relation to bitcoin of the members carrying out those differing approaches in their bitcoin accumulation.

Regarding 0.63 BTC.. It is starting to seem like a lot, no?

There are likely many normies who are now realizing that their chances of ever reaching 1 BTC is quite unlikely, even if they were to accumulate as aggressively as they might be able to, even guys who might be able to accumulate $300 to $400 per week, which would end up being $15k to $20k per year, which is $150k to $200k invested over 10 years, which is even difficult to imagine bitcoin prices averaging those kinds of prices in the next 10 years, for guys who are just starting their bitcoin accumulation now.

Normies around the world (not just in western counties) seem to have difficulties imagining (and putting into practice) even a bitcoin accumulation pace of something like $100 per week.. which surely is not too likely for them to reach 0.63 BTC (or 63 million satoshis) and maybe realistically they might be able to shoot for 1 million satoshis or maybe 21 million satoshis, yet they likely realize a needs for some level of bitcoin accumulation - and I personally consider ongoing accumulation to be a preferred approach rather a waiting for a dip approach or even an approach that lump sums in with some money that had been already saved up and without follow through with ongoing buying of BTC, such as weekly.

I don't constantly correct you because it is a bit tiresome.

Great.  That way we can push our differing theories without getting into personal battles, since these are not personal battles even if they reflect aspects of our differing perspectives and differing approaches to bitcoin and bitcoin accumulation for those who might still be accumulating bitcoin.

Instead, it is accurate to say that i have some bitcoin and I buy more periodically with no current plans to sell. That said, i sold some in 2017 and 2020. So far, every single sale proved in time to be sub-optimal.

That is part of what I like about you.  You are willing to admit some of the less favorable information... and yeah, even if we try to implement sound practices, we might end up with negative results and/or even mistakes along the way.

There likely are no perfect ways of dealing with our bitcoin portfolio whether we consider ourselves as continuing to accumulate bitcoin or if we might consider ourselves attempting to follow some kind of a maintenance approach to our BTC or alternatively figuring out some kind of a sustainable withdrawal.

Yes, I know that you have been inclined towards figuring out bitcoin portfolio management approaches that allow for minimizing and/or perhaps even eliminating needs to sell BTC that had already been accumulated.

I also like to do financial research and have an active stock portfolio and currently researching what my future SWR should be if and when I would stop working. Bitcoin would fit right in.

Nothing wrong with considering various possible withdrawal strategies and comparing and contrasting what might be done with other assets (non-bitcoin assets) and surely there are also guys who might include paper bitcoin into their holdings too.... so several of us likely differ in our perspectives regarding how to get there, assessing if we have got there and also ways to manage our bitcoin holdings (and other assets) once we perceive that we had gotten there..

Our battles regarding how to manage our coins are surely not going to be going away, since there are ongoing battles regarding on and off ramps, and surely if we might be talking about potentially selling large quantities of bitcoin (in dollar terms) on a regular basis, then we might be irritated if we might have limitations in our avenues and abilities to accomplish such - which also might inspire folks into paper bitcoin products.. which are purposeful battles against bitcoin self-custody.

I am not even sure if guys are better off or worse off to have had been ongoingly using the services of exchanges since even coins that I had on Coinbase, and I moved to private wallets, when I go to move those coins back to exchanges (not back to Coinbase), and I am asked where I got those coins, I may well end up saying that I got the coins from Coinbase, yet I don't have an account with Coinbase anymore due to their having had kicked me off and it might not always even be clear to me from where I got some of my coins, even though originally I might have had gotten some of them on Coinbase when I might be moving my coins to some other exchange in order to get dollars for them.

[edited out]
BCH... Pfff... I remember some (one?) of us here in WO promoting BCH back in 2017-2018. Had they converted their BCH to BTC at that time, they would now be much, MUCH richer. But, ego is a double-edged sword.

Goes to show that short-term performance doesn't mean anything.
Zoom out to see the bigger picture.

We cannot verify exactly what guys did, and sure some of those guys just hung onto both coins BTC and BCH, and maybe they were not greatly damaged.. Yet there were some of those guys who were proclaiming to sell their BTC for BCH.. and if they actually did what they claimed to have had done (and there were likely several of those guys, and maybe they are not here anymore, for reasons), they would have had ended up in pretty negative territories to have had reduced their BTC and increased their BCH.

Edit: Zoom-Out performance for the exact same period of 8 years:
BCH at $1125 at Dec 2017 low, now $592 (DOWN 47%, after 8 years)
BTC at $9370 at Dec 2017 low, now $90205 (UP 863%, after 8 years)
Bitstamp prices.

Another one of those cases in which zooming out gives a much more accurate picture, and yeah there might be guys who are tempted into dip into BCH (or some other shitcoin) in current times, and even believing that there might possibly, perhaps be some possibility of a pump of the crap coin, and that surely comes off as a bit of a dumb approach to investing by including gambling into your BTC investment, and yeah, don't get me wrong.  

I am not completely a prude in regards to gambling, trading and/or shitcoins, so from my own perspective, I think that if guys who cannot control themselves in regards to their desires to gamble or to get attracted to shitcoins and/or trading, then if they could at least limit their exposure to no more than 10% the size of their bitcoin holdings, then at least they are also limiting their damage - yet so many times guys who are attracted to trading, shitcoins and/or gambling, they are likely not able to control themselves and/or to meaningfully limit themselves, including that they would end up devolving into breaking the limitations beyond 10%.. so then it is just an ever existing problem to get sucked into trading, shitcoins and/or gambling with our bitcoin and without placing some kind of a meaningful limitation.

I will admit that there are some rare guys (perhaps less than 5% of those who go down the path) are able to trade/shitcoin and/or gamble in a way that it is more profitable than merely focusing on bitcoin and accumulating/holding bitcoin.

[edited out]
@Searing & @philipma1957 - The stories (quoted above) you two guys tell, scare me!  Shocked

What you have said and revealed just adds to the reason I'm very hesitant to get involved in directly buying Bitcoin and self-custody it, and move it from time to time, like I think some of you OGs typically do. It's just all such weird stuff to me, which I have no knowledge about or experience with!

Holy fuck, you are full of shit, and even problematic with your desires to talk against self-custody.  

There is no reason to start self-custody with large amounts.

With your potentially made up proclamations, you are supposedly holding the equivalent of 5 BTC in value in paper bitcoin (namely spot bitcoin ETF shares), so then even if you merely were to put the equivalent of 1% to 5% of that value into actual bitcoin, then you would merely be working with 0.05 BTC to 0.25 BTC to potentially put into some variations of self-custody.  You could even start out with the equivalent of $500 at a time, which would ONLY be around 0.005 BTC, which would only be 0.1% of the size of your supposed bitcoin holdings.   And, yeah, maybe you start out as a bit of a chicken-shitted fucktwat, and in that sense, you start out by buying your bitcoin and holding it on an exchange as you study possible ways to self-custody it.

And since I don't know much about the history of exchanges failing or being hacked (i.e. Mt. Gox), that too really intimidates me. I'm sure I cannot be alone about how I view this matter.

MTGOX was from 2014 and earlier.  There are a lot of exchanges these days.

I guess if I knew all the ins-and-outs you OGs have experienced over the years I might (maybe) feel better about directly owning a lot of Bitcoin.

You don't need to know all of the ins and outs, and part of the way of learning is to get started, get involved and gain some experiences.

It's just all unknown and confusing stuff to me.

It is not as complicated as you are making it sound... Maybe  you should look into the matter a wee bit more better instead of just repeating  how you don't know anything about it without planning any action to look into the matter.

Therefore, I just don't trust doing it, and I'm oblivious to how best to securely self-custody it if I did decide to give it a try.

You can learn by doing, and you don't have to do it all at once.  

I had mentioned before that https://thebitcoinhole.com/ has information about both hardware wallets and software wallets. Sure there are also other various reliable information sources, too.

If you have a Robinhood account, then you are able to withdraw from your Robinhood account to a self-custody wallet.

Also, I don't understand using Robinhood (for example) to keep owner's Bitcoin, in that it isn't a cold wallet, but a custodial platform that holds your crypto and stores the majority of its customer fund's in a mix of offline cold storage and online hot wallets using a hybrid approach to protect assets.
 

Whatever Robinhood has, you can figure out how to transfer from their wallet to your own self-custodial wallet, even though maybe the first step would be to buy some bitcoin on Robinhood and then later figure out how to transfer the BTC that you bought to self-custody.  One step at a time.
 
And while this offers security, the owners don't hold private keys, and they don't have full control like a personal hardware cold wallet (e.g., Ledger, Trezor). Although, I understand that Robinhood offers a separate, non-custodial Robinhood Wallet app for more control. It's just all baffling to me!  I know many people here say self-custody and having private keys is the best and only way to invest in Bitcoin - it's more than a little puzzling to me!  Huh  

There is a difference between open source and closed source, so if any of the exchanges have wallets, they tend to be closed source rather than open source, so there may well be concerns about if there might be back doors into the wallets in regards to the protection of keys or  their abilities to freeze or take funds contained in wallets that are connected to their platform.

Maybe if you are coming around to learning about self-custody, then at least you might be able to better understand how directly holding bitcoin is different from holding on an exchange and even more different to holding a paper claim to the dollar equivalent of the bitcoin whereby the ETF provider would supposedly buy the actual BTC and/or hold the keys to the BTC that they supposedly buy to back up your claim to a share of BTC price exposure.

i never checked, but is there supposed to be a minimum age on this forum?

I recall that the minimum age is 9 years old.
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December 22, 2025, 07:55:34 PM

As for coffee I use a whole house sediment filter the a reverse osmosis filter.

and then this old school perk

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00004R946?

then filter the whole perked pot into this

https://www.lowes.com/pd/Stanley-2-Quart-Stainless-Steel-Insulated-Water-Bottle/5013767409?

using this filter for the grinds

https://www.amazon.com/Coffee-Filter-Reusable-Strainer-Stainless/dp/B0F24Y8JHW/ref=sr_1_19?

Stays warm enough for 5-6 hours.

I like a few ground beans.  Mostly hazelnut flavored but lots of grinds are good in it.

Phil - I like the old school Farberware percolator too!

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December 22, 2025, 07:58:24 PM

2017, I didn't want to make a decision on which fork market would choose.
Big mistake. Every fork is a shitcoin, it can never be Bitcoin. There is nothing to think about here besides the best timing to sell it. It was during the pump where Roger Ver tricked many people into believing BCH would flip Bitcoin. It was an organized pump in which he made a lot of money and a lot of naive people lost sadly..

No it wasn't a mistake. Keeping the fork was just the safest play.  But how would you know... you weren't there and are just a smart-ass talking shit that you read somewhere..

You don't even know that Ver lost a huge part of his net worth, by selling much of his BTC for BCH because he believed in it.
 

But yeah I'd have over 30% more BTC now, if I had sold earlier. It was an expensive hedge, if it ever was one at all  Roll Eyes
At the very peak I think it was even 50%, not sure.

go fuck yourself little wannabe...

I better invest my time talking to the coffee guys...  

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December 22, 2025, 08:01:15 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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December 22, 2025, 08:01:36 PM

2017, I didn't want to make a decision on which fork market would choose.
Big mistake. Every fork is a shitcoin, it can never be Bitcoin. There is nothing to think about here besides the best timing to sell it. It was during the pump where Roger Ver tricked many people into believing BCH would flip Bitcoin. It was an organized pump in which he made a lot of money and a lot of naive people lost sadly..
No it wasn't a mistake. Keeping the fork was just the safest play.  But how would you know... you weren't there and are just a smart-ass talking shit that you read somewhere..
If a social attack fork like that can win, then Bitcoin is over. It would have been a failed experiment, so considering that the safest play is very odd. If a social attacker orchestrated by a single influential scammer can beat Bitcoin, then it stands no chance against government attacks. Yes I was here..

You don't even know that Ver lost a huge part of his net worth, by selling much of his BTC for BCH because he believed in it.
I doubt that. Someone with his wealth can hedge the event to not lose money in any outcome.
 
But yeah I'd have over 30% more BTC now, if I had sold earlier. It was an expensive hedge, if it ever was one at all  Roll Eyes
At the very peak I think it was even 50%, not sure.
go fuck yourself you little wannabe...
Why do you have to be so rude for nothing? I think it peaked around 1 BCH to 0.5 BTC at that failed flip pump..someone else may confirm this, it was only brief but that was the peak. You are angry at me because you missed out selling at the best opportunity? Why?
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December 22, 2025, 08:07:55 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (5), OgNasty (1), vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1)

2017, I didn't want to make a decision on which fork market would choose.
Big mistake. Every fork is a shitcoin, it can never be Bitcoin. There is nothing to think about here besides the best timing to sell it. It was during the pump where Roger Ver tricked many people into believing BCH would flip Bitcoin. It was an organized pump in which he made a lot of money and a lot of naive people lost sadly..
No it wasn't a mistake. Keeping the fork was just the safest play.  But how would you know... you weren't there and are just a smart-ass talking shit that you read somewhere..
If a social attack fork like that can win, then Bitcoin is over. It has failed, so considering that the safest play is very odd. Yes I was here..

just for the record:

forks are not attacks, they are a healthy democratic cleansing process to give users a free choice to part from attributes they don't like.

That's why it's the best and freest money humanity ever had...
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