Found on reddit:
https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1pwi5pc/30_bitcoin_cycle_top_indicators_zero_triggered/The thesis is that there are only two possibilities:
1. All previously designed top indicators (
my comment-except the number of days passed post halving) are faulty.
2. This was not the top.
I think that the top was not in, but the day passed and a perfect fit with expected plus the diminishing return projected value might suggest otherwise.
Currently, I am 70:30 on this (70%-not yet, 30% -yes, we did hit the top in October).
Alternatively, we are switching to a more stock-market-like cycles with unpredictable ebbs and flows.
The 200dma was pierced on 11/04 for only the third time since mid-23: 1)for 8 days fully, but around two weeks back in 9/24 bottoming at 10% below; and 2)for a couple days in a less sustained manner circa Liberation Day `25. This has by far been the deepest, longest sustained correction since 2022.
But,
we're still floating well above Jay's favorite 200wma metric (true bear indicator IMO) and a mere ~30% off the lackluster high, however it's approaching 2 months under the prior lowest level.
If 4year astrology proves to still be a thing, there's at least 9ish months of sideways-downity remaining: a dumbfoundingly difficult task with Trump Inc. pamping eet in an election year. $1776, 2026, etc
4-year Cycle RulesBear low does not violate prior ATHPrevious ATH is not exceeded until after halvingQ4 of year following halving yields parabolic* ATH- Subsequent 12-24 month bear market, 78+% drawdown
*llamabolic Even though I frequently proclaim that I don't know where we are going, the 200-WMA can tell us where we are at.. and so we can see how far the BTC price is relative to the 200-WMA, which
currently with the BTC price at $87,6000 and the 200-WMA at $56,700, we are about 55% above the 200-WMA.
Why use any other indicator, except maybe because other folks are using other indicators?
The 100-WMA can be helpful to see when the BTC price might get stuck between the 100-WMA and the 200-WMA.. then maybe that could be a sign that we are in a bear market or to confirm that we had entered a bear market.
The 100-WMA is right around $83,600. By the way the 100-WMA can also be referred to as the 2 year moving average.
A problem with these indicators is that they can be gamed.. so then maybe if we stay below a price (such as the 100-WMA) for long enough, then maybe we will start to conclude that we have transitioned into a bear market.
I suppose that ultimately I like the 200-WMA since so far it is always moving up and it tends to take out a lo tof the shorter-term noise.. so it tells us where we are at, but not necessarily where we are going.. ..same with any of the indicators, even though surely we might try to extract some data from the various indicators to throw in a predictive element into the mix.
Of course, if you translate the 200 DMA into the weekly moving average then that is merely the 7 week moving average, which seems a bit short, which I suppose is the point, since we can compare the shorter with the longer and come up with some ideas about whetehr the trend has changed or if the trend is moving in a certain direction.
I suppose the Doctors (et al) are working to figure out your diagnosis. Hopefully nothing too serious.
Quickly looking at some pulse oximeter information, I see that even below 92% could be worrisome if it is an accurate reading and not due to measuring device errors... so loss of consciousness and brain damage could start to kick in when in the lower 80%s... so it seems that 70% would have had put you into unconsciousness...and brain dead.. so hopefully that low measurement was due to measurement variability rather than reading an accurate blood/oxygen level.
It didn't take them long to figure out what was wrong... common pneumonia. You probably know that streptococcus pneumoniae normally exists in all our bodies and will develop into pneumonia when we are weakened by other diseases. I knew I'd picked up some kind of flu or other virus several weeks ago. I guess that triggered the pneumonia. Before I even called a cab I started myself on prednisone which my respirologist had given to me to use at my discretion in case of an emergency. At the hospital they quickly started me on amoxiclav and continued my prednisone.
My main reason to stay was oxygen. Because of the holiday short staffing, there was a bit of a mixup. The nurses monitoring my oxygen levels tried to keep my oximeter readings up in the high nineties. When an actual respirologist came in and saw what was happening she explained that after years of COPD my system had adapted and that my new normal was the 88-92 range and that the occasional dips into the high 70s was acceptable. By late yesterday we'd achieved these levels without extra oxygen so they discharged me.
They just make up shit as they go.. so that they can release you without feeling legally liable.
I am glad that things were pinpointed and the issue was not more serious - or at least if you have a path forward to potentially just to get back to what you had been in previously and assuming recovery after taking the antibiotics and the steroids. I heard that people can have issues with prednisone.. as with any systematic medications.
Do you smoke or vape?
Popped in to say hi
Nice arguments all around
Cycle end or not?
#haikuspeakingfeelslikeyoda
Hi.
Regarding cycle: Both. Cycle theory is still in effect, meaning that this cycle is over. At the same time, we have not bounced out of the bull market yet... So go figure!!!!
I don't know what takes us out of this particular bull market. I suppose if we go below the 100-WMA for any meaningful amount of time (which is currently $83.6k).. that might help to take us out of it.. but going below the 100WMA with some kind of conviction might really help.. which would be a bit devastating to see folks actually selling at that price, unless it were to just be paper bitcoin playing some attempted manipulation, which might not end well for them..
Of course, with price movements there is a time element and there is also an amount of movement element too, so maybe the next two weeks are critical
tm, to see what happens to dee cornz, if anything, or will we continue to just be stuck in our current $86k to $94k narrow range for extended periods, or maybe we will be stuck in a broader $82k to $108k range or maybe we can bounce out of such broader range in order to get real and meaningful relief?
From my perspective, it is like an ongoing toss-up situation. What else is new?
We have been in these kind of toss up places in previous times and for long periods of time, and no one really knows what might or might not happen when we are in a toss up area, even though HODLers get frustrated by the lack of up that seems to be happening.
It was supposed to be the case that we were out of the stucked-ness range on December 26th from the closing of the end of the month options, but that has been almost 2 days ago and we are still flat as a pancake in the past two days.
Is someone trying to kill us through boredom?
My full name is Philip M.... = (middle) A.... = (last)
no-one I have found has that name but me.
I have searched my full name on the net since 1997 only I show up.
In retrospect using my full name for me email in 1996 was not a good choice for privacy.
But I was not a particularly rich person just working middle class guy.
In fact I was yet to have owned a new car in 1996.
So I had no issues about my privacy.
Phil - Yeah, you do have an extremely rare last name, and when putting your first and middle name with it - your full name is the only one on the planet! It's definitely not a Smith, Jones, Johnson or Williams! Even your wife has a relatively rare last name.
This is getting sicker and sicker... and Phil is just playing along with the further and further and further unnecessary, irrelevant and even invasive probing.
Femininity is being scorned at, though, with 90-100lb lady(ies) kicking the asses of the burly 230-250lb men, allegedly, as depicted in "Furiosa".
For sure, problematic to detach so thoroughly with reality - and the tragedies of sex alteration surgery in young folk is problematic too.. .. which is it any worse to be thinking that man can actually travel to places outside of earth to live? There can be some value in fantasy, yet it gets a bit detached from reality sometimes... .. which even life extension frequently seems more of a fantasy rather than a reality.
Poll
