Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hyperjacked]

Typical market cleansing before the 2026 pump to ~$200,000.

Ok…ok. I’ll tell you what I really think… and it’s not good imho!

 As the US economy goes so goes the world… and the US is in the middle of an invisible civil war! That civil war will become more and more obvious as we enter 2026. The propaganda is getting insane and the raw sewage in the legacy and social media is escalating at a steady pace.

 As silver goes so does the economy…The price of silver could get out of control VERY easily at this point…big time shortage !!! The big banks have been shorting paper silver for decades so the price of manufacturing stays cheap…this will bite them soooo hard!!!

 If Silver continues its pace…I believe the stock market could have a major collapse…and we could have hyperinflation.

 Enter 2008 bank crisis on steroids…and one of the reasons for the creation of Bitcoin! Normally this would be a down year for bitcoin… and controlled into a tight Bollinger band! The tighter the band the more explosive the move… Bitcoin could easily have 10-20k$ moves on a weekly basis and could see 200k$ in 2026 !!!

I could go on on all day… but I will spare everyone a text wall…😝

[Hyperjacked]

Typical market cleansing before the 2026 pump to ~$200,000.

Would love you to be right, I’d kiss NotLambChop’s asshole to make that happen but I fear we are set for 2 years of misery and 50k BTC.

OT: how did you get that awesome custom title? You must know someone… or am I missing something 😎

[ESG]

-Go Crab! Do Something!!!

[OutOfMemory]

Typical market cleansing before the 2026 pump to ~$200,000.

Would love you to be right, I’d kiss NotLambChop’s asshole to make that happen but I fear we are set for 2 years of misery and 50k BTC.

OT: how did you get that awesome custom title? You must know someone… or am I missing something 😎

The merit count?  

EDIT:
Bitcoin price don't bother me much.
Other than my APO telescope, which is a fucking diva tonight. I pointed it to SH2 240 "Spaghetti Nebula", a faint target, not easy, but alright if things just work, but they just don't.  

Back to topic:

Typical market cleansing before the 2026 pump to ~$200,000.

Ok…ok. I’ll tell you what I really think… and it’s not good imho!

 As the US economy goes so goes the world… and the US is in the middle of an invisible civil war! That civil war will become more and more obvious as we enter 2026. The propaganda is getting insane and the raw sewage in the legacy and social media is escalating at a steady pace.

 As silver goes so does the economy…The price of silver could get out of control VERY easily at this point…big time shortage !!! The big banks have been shorting paper silver for decades so the price of manufacturing stays cheap…this will bite them soooo hard!!!

 If Silver continues its pace…I believe the stock market could have a major collapse…and we could have hyperinflation.

 Enter 2008 bank crisis on steroids…and one of the reasons for the creation of Bitcoin! Normally this would be a down year for bitcoin… and controlled into a tight Bollinger band! The tighter the band the more explosive the move… Bitcoin could easily have 10-20k$ moves on a weekly basis and could see 200k$ in 2026 !!!

If Hyperinflation would be the main driver of a 2026 ATH, what's it worth anyway?
Well, compared to a stock turmoil and tumbling metal, it saves our wealth, which isn't nothing in a HI scenario.
I'm a bit shocked by the idea that nothing changed in the fiat world, which should mean it can only ever get worse.
The chance of a civil war is lower if the US citizens have a common enemy, which they support to go to war against.
So there are a few alternative options, but the exact direction we're going isn't clear (mostly), and this is adding a lot to the insecurity that "stole" our > $150k ATH, imho.

I could go on on all day… but I will spare everyone a text wall…😝

Not everyone wants to be spared a text wall, especially if you consider this thread's title and forum subcategory ("Speculation").
Actually, i miss occasional text-walls a bit. (JJG excluded, but he used to generate higher text-walls, more frequently in the past, too).
So if you think you can add some insight and value, please go on with the text wall  

[LFC_Bitcoin]

OT: how did you get that awesome custom title? You must know someone… or am I missing something 😎

The request was granted by theymos, our Overlord.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

OT: how did you get that awesome custom title? You must know someone… or am I missing something 😎

The request was granted by theymos, our Overlord.

Worth a try to ask him if you’ve been around a while. I asked him if I could have the Og username and was denied, so it might matter a bit if he likes you or not. I’ve seen plenty of folks make and receive special requests though.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

OT: how did you get that awesome custom title? You must know someone… or am I missing something 😎

The request was granted by theymos, our Overlord.

Worth a try to ask him if you’ve been around a while. I asked him if I could have the Og username and was denied, so it might matter a bit if he likes you or not. I’ve seen plenty of folks make and receive special requests though.

Why didn't you just ask for Satoshi?

For an OG you sure do have a ton of gaps in your knowledge.

Funny thing is if you actually tried to read up on shit after it's pointed out when your wrong you might one day be worth the title Og.

[OgNasty]

Why didn't you just ask for Satoshi?

For an OG you sure do have a ton of gaps in your knowledge.

Funny thing is if you actually tried to read up on shit after it's pointed out when your wrong you might one day be worth the title Og.

That wouldn’t make sense. People don’t call me satoshi, they call me Og.

Criticizing my knowledge while using the wrong form of “your” and capitalizing the S in satoshi is why I have you on ignore. Every single time I regret clicking that Show/Hide button…

[JayJuanGee]

Typical market cleansing before the 2026 pump to ~$200,000.

Ok…ok. I’ll tell you what I really think… and it’s not good imho!
 As the US economy goes so goes the world… and the US is in the middle of an invisible civil war! That civil war will become more and more obvious as we enter 2026. The propaganda is getting insane and the raw sewage in the legacy and social media is escalating at a steady pace.

 As silver goes so does the economy…The price of silver could get out of control VERY easily at this point…big time shortage !!! The big banks have been shorting paper silver for decades so the price of manufacturing stays cheap…this will bite them soooo hard!!!
 If Silver continues its pace…I believe the stock market could have a major collapse…and we could have hyperinflation.

 Enter 2008 bank crisis on steroids…and one of the reasons for the creation of Bitcoin! Normally this would be a down year for bitcoin… and controlled into a tight Bollinger band! The tighter the band the more explosive the move… Bitcoin could easily have 10-20k$ moves on a weekly basis and could see 200k$ in 2026 !!!
I could go on on all day… but I will spare everyone a text wall…😝

You are coming off as a bit of a doomer and gloomer, yet proclaiming that bitcoin is going to come out o.k., even if various otherwise doomer and gloomer scenarios play out.. and yeah, we already likely realize that banks have been playing without the assets that they claim to have.

There are many ways that various aspects of the economy can implode (or is it explode?), and of course, we know that there are likely going to be various efforts to paper over the problem, yet the papering over might not end up working... Of course there exists paper silver and paper gold and paper of a lot of assets and even housing and manufacturing, so bitcoin should be stronger in such conditions in which it can be brought into possession, yet there are a lot of folks who are not taking their bitcoin into possession... so surely there are ongoing attempts to include bitcoin in these various paperizing and crashening events. Contagion means that several kinds of markets implode and cause additional implosions, even while they are being propped up.. and some are allowed to fail in such process. Aliens might land to help in the scare tactics, and of course, there may well be internet outages, too.

You are preaching to the choir in regards to our needs to either buy or at least continue to hold bitcoin.. I mean actual bitcoin.... even though many of us go through banks to cash in and cash out of bitcoin, even though there could be good ways to transact directly if we can find ways to spend our bitcoin directly for goods and services and housing.

And as OOM seems to suggest, it would not hurt for you to explain a wee bit moar better.

Typical market cleansing before the 2026 pump to ~$200,000.

Would love you to be right, I’d kiss NotLambChop’s asshole to make that happen but I fear we are set for 2 years of misery and 50k BTC.

OT: how did you get that awesome custom title? You must know someone… or am I missing something 😎

$50k is a bit much no?  I think that LFC will be lucky for us to get below $80k and then we have to pass below $75k (which is the April 2025 low), so I am wondering how that is going to happen?  I know it is not impossible, yet we likely would need to experience some pretty catastrophic (perhaps black swan level?) happenings for those kinds of price drops to end up playing out - even within the next 6-ish months, yet he may well be considering the low of the dips to come towards the middle or maybe the end of 2026.  Perhaps?  It is truly in bettable kinds of proclamations.. though I already have one outstanding bet.. that is seeming more and more difficult to achieve a favorable outcome, since the amount of time is getting a bit tighter, and the length of downity is continuing to play out too long.. which contributes to more difficulties to get back up.

OT: how did you get that awesome custom title? You must know someone… or am I missing something 😎

The request was granted by theymos, our Overlord.

You mean the "Diamond hands" part?

But it is not true.  Diamond hands wouldn't have had sold 20% of his stash (or whatever the quantity was?) at $120k and then refuses to buy back until below $70k.. That truly is not a very good definition of "Diamond hands."   And, also, the intensity of your whining (prior to your selling at $120k-ish) does not come off as what a diamond hands would do, either.  That is just my subjective assessment, and don't get me wrong.  I surely am not opposed to guys figuring out ways to manage their bitcoin holdings in ways that ends up selling some at various points along the way. I am mostly just quibbling about where you are drawing lines rather than your drawing of such lines.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

OT: how did you get that awesome custom title? You must know someone… or am I missing something 😎

The request was granted by theymos, our Overlord.

You mean the "Diamond hands" part?

But it is not true.  Diamond hands wouldn't have had sold 20% of his stash (or whatever the quantity was?) at $120k and then refuses to buy back until below $70k.. That truly is not a very good definition of "Diamond hands."   And, also, the intensity of your whining (prior to your selling at $120k-ish) does not come off as what a diamond hands would do, either.  That is just my subjective assessment, and don't get me wrong.  I surely am not opposed to guys figuring out ways to manage their bitcoin holdings in ways that ends up selling some at various points along the way. I am mostly just quibbling about where you are drawing lines rather than your drawing of such lines.

I'm not obsessed with mindrust, but then, compared to him we pretty much all have "diamond hands" here 

[AlcoHoDL]

OT: how did you get that awesome custom title? You must know someone… or am I missing something 😎

The request was granted by theymos, our Overlord.

You mean the "Diamond hands" part?

But it is not true.  Diamond hands wouldn't have had sold 20% of his stash (or whatever the quantity was?) at $120k and then refuses to buy back until below $70k.. That truly is not a very good definition of "Diamond hands."   And, also, the intensity of your whining (prior to your selling at $120k-ish) does not come off as what a diamond hands would do, either.  That is just my subjective assessment, and don't get me wrong.  I surely am not opposed to guys figuring out ways to manage their bitcoin holdings in ways that ends up selling some at various points along the way. I am mostly just quibbling about where you are drawing lines rather than your drawing of such lines.

I'm not obsessed with mindrust, but then, compared to him we pretty much all have "diamond hands" here  

I don't know about us having "Diamond Hands", but mindrust has got to be the de facto "Paper Hands" king!

[Biodom]

I am still at a loss of what 2025 meant for bitcoin.

On one hand, if bitcoin ebbs and flows are based just on intrinsics, then it is NOT a risk-on asset and, hence, an interesting addition to portfolio because it is the ONLY large asset that severely under-performed in 2025.

If, on the other hand, it is still so easily manipulated by the PTB, even AFTER 16 years of maturing, then it might mean that it would ALWAYS be amenable to manipulation and buy/sell ratio influence is a gimmick to ignore.

Finally, what if this corresponds to a pernicious belief of some future "quantum problem" appearing, which markets discount back to the present?
I totally agree with the thesis that before bitcoin would be hacked, quantum would be able to "open up" access to bank accounts easily (as they are protected by something much less secure), but somehow this does not compute with the investing populace.

Sorry...ALL key opinion leaders (KOLs) were wrong on 2025...we are in an uncharted waters, it seems.

[Biodom]

Typical market cleansing before the 2026 pump to ~$200,000.

Ok…ok. I’ll tell you what I really think… and it’s not good imho!

 As the US economy goes so goes the world… and the US is in the middle of an invisible civil war! That civil war will become more and more obvious as we enter 2026. The propaganda is getting insane and the raw sewage in the legacy and social media is escalating at a steady pace.

 As silver goes so does the economy…The price of silver could get out of control VERY easily at this point…big time shortage !!! The big banks have been shorting paper silver for decades so the price of manufacturing stays cheap…this will bite them soooo hard!!!

 If Silver continues its pace…I believe the stock market could have a major collapse…and we could have hyperinflation.

 Enter 2008 bank crisis on steroids…and one of the reasons for the creation of Bitcoin! Normally this would be a down year for bitcoin… and controlled into a tight Bollinger band! The tighter the band the more explosive the move… Bitcoin could easily have 10-20k$ moves on a weekly basis and could see 200k$ in 2026 !!!

I could go on on all day… but I will spare everyone a text wall…😝

Silver- would probably collapse soon as it always happens with all things exponential (in a short time frame). It's too overextended.
After that, maybe gold would correct too, but less so.
After that, maybe a 10-15% stock market correction.
Not clear about what bitcoin would do during all this.
I am not increasing my cash/T-bills, but would do some buying later in 2026.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

If, on the other hand, it is still so easily manipulated by the PTB, even AFTER 16 years of maturing, then it might mean that it would ALWAYS be amenable to manipulation and buy/sell ratio influence is a gimmick to ignore.

Everything is easily manipulated so I don't agree with the conclusion here.

Finally, what if this corrsponds to a pernicious belief of some future "quantum problem" appearing, which markets discount back to the present?
I totally agree with the thesis that before bitcoin would be hacked, quantum would be able to "open up" access to bank accounts easily (as they are protected by something much less secure), but somehow this does not compute with the investing populace.

Quantum stuff is pretty far away, but then again many people read into the hype.. maybe.

Since it is looking like a Doji candle, then the question is whether Doji candles are bearish or bullish, and surely whether doji candles are interpreted as bearish or bullish might also depend on how the trend is interpreted.  

In this case, we usually would not have a Doji candle at this particular place in our cycle, yet the bitcoin market has a lot of new entrants who are likely influencing bitcoin's historical price dynamics and our conception of cycles is likely either in a state of flux or perhaps being challenged.

I doubt that the 12-month candle is bullish AF as goldkingcoiner is proclaiming it to be, since he is bringing his likely already perceptions about the trend and then interpreting the Doji candle as bullish.  Perhaps an attempt to at the power of suggestion (otherwise known as wishful thinking)?

It is called a Doji candle and it can be both bullish and bearish? That makes it even less clear, but thanks for explaining what kind of candle it is. I think we can consider throwing out the cycle theory. Maybe there was never any cycle at all but it was just another case of humans recognizing patterns in chaos where that are none? We will see soon.

[philipma1957]

I am still at a loss of what 2025 meant for bitcoin.

On one hand, if bitcoin ebbs and flows are based just on intrinsics, then it is NOT a risk-on asset and, hence, an interesting addition to portfolio because it is the ONLY large asset that severely under-performed in 2025.

If, on the other hand, it is still so easily manipulated by the PTB, even AFTER 16 years of maturing, then it might mean that it would ALWAYS be amenable to manipulation and buy/sell ratio influence is a gimmick to ignore.

Finally, what if this corresponds to a pernicious belief of some future "quantum problem" appearing, which markets discount back to the present?
I totally agree with the thesis that before bitcoin would be hacked, quantum would be able to "open up" access to bank accounts easily (as they are protected by something much less secure), but somehow this does not compute with the investing populace.

Sorry...ALL key opinion leaders (KOLs) were wrong on 2025...we are in an uncharted waters, it seems.

Well I did mention what happens if BTC goes sideways for a 8-10 year period of time like gold did for Clinton and part of baby bush.

basically gold did 200-400 usd slot for 10 years.  say 1992 to 2002

so maybe btc slots at 75k-130k for years.

one good thing if it happens is fuck that filthy 4 year cycle bullshit.