Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

OT: how did you get that awesome custom title? You must know someone… or am I missing something 😎

The request was granted by theymos, our Overlord.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

OT: how did you get that awesome custom title? You must know someone… or am I missing something 😎

The request was granted by theymos, our Overlord.

Worth a try to ask him if you’ve been around a while. I asked him if I could have the Og username and was denied, so it might matter a bit if he likes you or not. I’ve seen plenty of folks make and receive special requests though.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

OT: how did you get that awesome custom title? You must know someone… or am I missing something 😎

The request was granted by theymos, our Overlord.

Worth a try to ask him if you’ve been around a while. I asked him if I could have the Og username and was denied, so it might matter a bit if he likes you or not. I’ve seen plenty of folks make and receive special requests though.

Why didn't you just ask for Satoshi?

For an OG you sure do have a ton of gaps in your knowledge.

Funny thing is if you actually tried to read up on shit after it's pointed out when your wrong you might one day be worth the title Og.

[OgNasty]

Why didn't you just ask for Satoshi?

For an OG you sure do have a ton of gaps in your knowledge.

Funny thing is if you actually tried to read up on shit after it's pointed out when your wrong you might one day be worth the title Og.

That wouldn’t make sense. People don’t call me satoshi, they call me Og.

Criticizing my knowledge while using the wrong form of “your” and capitalizing the S in satoshi is why I have you on ignore. Every single time I regret clicking that Show/Hide button…

[JayJuanGee]

Typical market cleansing before the 2026 pump to ~$200,000.

Ok…ok. I’ll tell you what I really think… and it’s not good imho!
 As the US economy goes so goes the world… and the US is in the middle of an invisible civil war! That civil war will become more and more obvious as we enter 2026. The propaganda is getting insane and the raw sewage in the legacy and social media is escalating at a steady pace.

 As silver goes so does the economy…The price of silver could get out of control VERY easily at this point…big time shortage !!! The big banks have been shorting paper silver for decades so the price of manufacturing stays cheap…this will bite them soooo hard!!!
 If Silver continues its pace…I believe the stock market could have a major collapse…and we could have hyperinflation.

 Enter 2008 bank crisis on steroids…and one of the reasons for the creation of Bitcoin! Normally this would be a down year for bitcoin… and controlled into a tight Bollinger band! The tighter the band the more explosive the move… Bitcoin could easily have 10-20k$ moves on a weekly basis and could see 200k$ in 2026 !!!
I could go on on all day… but I will spare everyone a text wall…😝

You are coming off as a bit of a doomer and gloomer, yet proclaiming that bitcoin is going to come out o.k., even if various otherwise doomer and gloomer scenarios play out.. and yeah, we already likely realize that banks have been playing without the assets that they claim to have.

There are many ways that various aspects of the economy can implode (or is it explode?), and of course, we know that there are likely going to be various efforts to paper over the problem, yet the papering over might not end up working... Of course there exists paper silver and paper gold and paper of a lot of assets and even housing and manufacturing, so bitcoin should be stronger in such conditions in which it can be brought into possession, yet there are a lot of folks who are not taking their bitcoin into possession... so surely there are ongoing attempts to include bitcoin in these various paperizing and crashening events. Contagion means that several kinds of markets implode and cause additional implosions, even while they are being propped up.. and some are allowed to fail in such process. Aliens might land to help in the scare tactics, and of course, there may well be internet outages, too.

You are preaching to the choir in regards to our needs to either buy or at least continue to hold bitcoin.. I mean actual bitcoin.... even though many of us go through banks to cash in and cash out of bitcoin, even though there could be good ways to transact directly if we can find ways to spend our bitcoin directly for goods and services and housing.

And as OOM seems to suggest, it would not hurt for you to explain a wee bit moar better.

Typical market cleansing before the 2026 pump to ~$200,000.

Would love you to be right, I’d kiss NotLambChop’s asshole to make that happen but I fear we are set for 2 years of misery and 50k BTC.

OT: how did you get that awesome custom title? You must know someone… or am I missing something 😎

$50k is a bit much no?  I think that LFC will be lucky for us to get below $80k and then we have to pass below $75k (which is the April 2025 low), so I am wondering how that is going to happen?  I know it is not impossible, yet we likely would need to experience some pretty catastrophic (perhaps black swan level?) happenings for those kinds of price drops to end up playing out - even within the next 6-ish months, yet he may well be considering the low of the dips to come towards the middle or maybe the end of 2026.  Perhaps?  It is truly in bettable kinds of proclamations.. though I already have one outstanding bet.. that is seeming more and more difficult to achieve a favorable outcome, since the amount of time is getting a bit tighter, and the length of downity is continuing to play out too long.. which contributes to more difficulties to get back up.

OT: how did you get that awesome custom title? You must know someone… or am I missing something 😎

The request was granted by theymos, our Overlord.

You mean the "Diamond hands" part?

But it is not true.  Diamond hands wouldn't have had sold 20% of his stash (or whatever the quantity was?) at $120k and then refuses to buy back until below $70k.. That truly is not a very good definition of "Diamond hands."   And, also, the intensity of your whining (prior to your selling at $120k-ish) does not come off as what a diamond hands would do, either.  That is just my subjective assessment, and don't get me wrong.  I surely am not opposed to guys figuring out ways to manage their bitcoin holdings in ways that ends up selling some at various points along the way. I am mostly just quibbling about where you are drawing lines rather than your drawing of such lines.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

OT: how did you get that awesome custom title? You must know someone… or am I missing something 😎

The request was granted by theymos, our Overlord.

You mean the "Diamond hands" part?

But it is not true.  Diamond hands wouldn't have had sold 20% of his stash (or whatever the quantity was?) at $120k and then refuses to buy back until below $70k.. That truly is not a very good definition of "Diamond hands."   And, also, the intensity of your whining (prior to your selling at $120k-ish) does not come off as what a diamond hands would do, either.  That is just my subjective assessment, and don't get me wrong.  I surely am not opposed to guys figuring out ways to manage their bitcoin holdings in ways that ends up selling some at various points along the way. I am mostly just quibbling about where you are drawing lines rather than your drawing of such lines.

I'm not obsessed with mindrust, but then, compared to him we pretty much all have "diamond hands" here 

[AlcoHoDL]

OT: how did you get that awesome custom title? You must know someone… or am I missing something 😎

The request was granted by theymos, our Overlord.

You mean the "Diamond hands" part?

But it is not true.  Diamond hands wouldn't have had sold 20% of his stash (or whatever the quantity was?) at $120k and then refuses to buy back until below $70k.. That truly is not a very good definition of "Diamond hands."   And, also, the intensity of your whining (prior to your selling at $120k-ish) does not come off as what a diamond hands would do, either.  That is just my subjective assessment, and don't get me wrong.  I surely am not opposed to guys figuring out ways to manage their bitcoin holdings in ways that ends up selling some at various points along the way. I am mostly just quibbling about where you are drawing lines rather than your drawing of such lines.

I'm not obsessed with mindrust, but then, compared to him we pretty much all have "diamond hands" here  

I don't know about us having "Diamond Hands", but mindrust has got to be the de facto "Paper Hands" king!

[Biodom]

I am still at a loss of what 2025 meant for bitcoin.

On one hand, if bitcoin ebbs and flows are based just on intrinsics, then it is NOT a risk-on asset and, hence, an interesting addition to portfolio because it is the ONLY large asset that severely under-performed in 2025.

If, on the other hand, it is still so easily manipulated by the PTB, even AFTER 16 years of maturing, then it might mean that it would ALWAYS be amenable to manipulation and buy/sell ratio influence is a gimmick to ignore.

Finally, what if this corresponds to a pernicious belief of some future "quantum problem" appearing, which markets discount back to the present?
I totally agree with the thesis that before bitcoin would be hacked, quantum would be able to "open up" access to bank accounts easily (as they are protected by something much less secure), but somehow this does not compute with the investing populace.

Sorry...ALL key opinion leaders (KOLs) were wrong on 2025...we are in an uncharted waters, it seems.

[Biodom]

Typical market cleansing before the 2026 pump to ~$200,000.

Ok…ok. I’ll tell you what I really think… and it’s not good imho!

 As the US economy goes so goes the world… and the US is in the middle of an invisible civil war! That civil war will become more and more obvious as we enter 2026. The propaganda is getting insane and the raw sewage in the legacy and social media is escalating at a steady pace.

 As silver goes so does the economy…The price of silver could get out of control VERY easily at this point…big time shortage !!! The big banks have been shorting paper silver for decades so the price of manufacturing stays cheap…this will bite them soooo hard!!!

 If Silver continues its pace…I believe the stock market could have a major collapse…and we could have hyperinflation.

 Enter 2008 bank crisis on steroids…and one of the reasons for the creation of Bitcoin! Normally this would be a down year for bitcoin… and controlled into a tight Bollinger band! The tighter the band the more explosive the move… Bitcoin could easily have 10-20k$ moves on a weekly basis and could see 200k$ in 2026 !!!

I could go on on all day… but I will spare everyone a text wall…😝

Silver- would probably collapse soon as it always happens with all things exponential (in a short time frame). It's too overextended.
After that, maybe gold would correct too, but less so.
After that, maybe a 10-15% stock market correction.
Not clear about what bitcoin would do during all this.
I am not increasing my cash/T-bills, but would do some buying later in 2026.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

If, on the other hand, it is still so easily manipulated by the PTB, even AFTER 16 years of maturing, then it might mean that it would ALWAYS be amenable to manipulation and buy/sell ratio influence is a gimmick to ignore.

Everything is easily manipulated so I don't agree with the conclusion here.

Finally, what if this corrsponds to a pernicious belief of some future "quantum problem" appearing, which markets discount back to the present?
I totally agree with the thesis that before bitcoin would be hacked, quantum would be able to "open up" access to bank accounts easily (as they are protected by something much less secure), but somehow this does not compute with the investing populace.

Quantum stuff is pretty far away, but then again many people read into the hype.. maybe.

Since it is looking like a Doji candle, then the question is whether Doji candles are bearish or bullish, and surely whether doji candles are interpreted as bearish or bullish might also depend on how the trend is interpreted.  

In this case, we usually would not have a Doji candle at this particular place in our cycle, yet the bitcoin market has a lot of new entrants who are likely influencing bitcoin's historical price dynamics and our conception of cycles is likely either in a state of flux or perhaps being challenged.

I doubt that the 12-month candle is bullish AF as goldkingcoiner is proclaiming it to be, since he is bringing his likely already perceptions about the trend and then interpreting the Doji candle as bullish.  Perhaps an attempt to at the power of suggestion (otherwise known as wishful thinking)?

It is called a Doji candle and it can be both bullish and bearish? That makes it even less clear, but thanks for explaining what kind of candle it is. I think we can consider throwing out the cycle theory. Maybe there was never any cycle at all but it was just another case of humans recognizing patterns in chaos where that are none? We will see soon.

[philipma1957]

I am still at a loss of what 2025 meant for bitcoin.

On one hand, if bitcoin ebbs and flows are based just on intrinsics, then it is NOT a risk-on asset and, hence, an interesting addition to portfolio because it is the ONLY large asset that severely under-performed in 2025.

If, on the other hand, it is still so easily manipulated by the PTB, even AFTER 16 years of maturing, then it might mean that it would ALWAYS be amenable to manipulation and buy/sell ratio influence is a gimmick to ignore.

Finally, what if this corresponds to a pernicious belief of some future "quantum problem" appearing, which markets discount back to the present?
I totally agree with the thesis that before bitcoin would be hacked, quantum would be able to "open up" access to bank accounts easily (as they are protected by something much less secure), but somehow this does not compute with the investing populace.

Sorry...ALL key opinion leaders (KOLs) were wrong on 2025...we are in an uncharted waters, it seems.

Well I did mention what happens if BTC goes sideways for a 8-10 year period of time like gold did for Clinton and part of baby bush.

basically gold did 200-400 usd slot for 10 years.  say 1992 to 2002

so maybe btc slots at 75k-130k for years.

one good thing if it happens is fuck that filthy 4 year cycle bullshit.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

OT: how did you get that awesome custom title? You must know someone… or am I missing something 😎

The request was granted by theymos, our Overlord.

You mean the "Diamond hands" part?
But it is not true.  Diamond hands wouldn't have had sold 20% of his stash (or whatever the quantity was?) at $120k and then refuses to buy back until below $70k.. That truly is not a very good definition of "Diamond hands."   And, also, the intensity of your whining (prior to your selling at $120k-ish) does not come off as what a diamond hands would do, either.  That is just my subjective assessment, and don't get me wrong.  I surely am not opposed to guys figuring out ways to manage their bitcoin holdings in ways that ends up selling some at various points along the way. I am mostly just quibbling about where you are drawing lines rather than your drawing of such lines.

I'm not obsessed with mindrust, but then, compared to him we pretty much all have "diamond hands" here  

I don't know about us having "Diamond Hands", but mindrust has got to be the de facto "Paper Hands" king!

Comparing relatively speaking is not really fair, and we should not be even attempting to compare ourselves to mindrust, even though surely many of us can relate to the idea of either losing conviction and/or being stubborn in regards to our convictions and ending up being wrong. There surely are some aspects about mindrust that any of us should be able to relate to, even though, in several ways, it ends up being a story of what not to do.

Maybe my assertion that LFC is not a good example of Diamond hands is not fair... but still, I cannot imagine what we know about his facts as constituting diamond hands, even though it could asserted as some variation of "arguable" reasonable portfolio management - it does not seem to fit a description of diamond hands.

Describing what is diamond hands might be harder to establish, but it would likely not involve much if any selling... yet I am not sure, exactly, how to establish that.

I am not diamond hands since I have been selling since right around $250 and all the way up to $124.5k.  My way of dealing with bitcoin's volatility has to do with systematically selling on the way up... yet I think that I was only able to reach a formulaic way of selling on the way up based on my having had calculated a system that I believed to work based on my own particular circumstances and my then assessment of my having had then reached overaccumulation status.

There are likely guys who have been going through fairly BIG dilemmas regarding their own bitcoin portfolio and how to manage it, and it seems to me that if guys are still in their accumulation stage, then they likely would not mix buying and selling.. even though some guys do, yet other guys focus only on buying until they reach a certain quantity of bitcoin and/or perhaps until a certain amount of time passes.

Maybe for LFC, a better slogan would be:  "I used to be diamond hands, before 2022."   hahahahahahaha.. That might be more fitting.

so for short:  "used to be diamond hands." That might work.

I know.  I am not making any friends with this discussion, so I probably said enough (or more than enough) already.

Since it is looking like a Doji candle, then the question is whether Doji candles are bearish or bullish, and surely whether doji candles are interpreted as bearish or bullish might also depend on how the trend is interpreted.  
In this case, we usually would not have a Doji candle at this particular place in our cycle, yet the bitcoin market has a lot of new entrants who are likely influencing bitcoin's historical price dynamics and our conception of cycles is likely either in a state of flux or perhaps being challenged.

I doubt that the 12-month candle is bullish AF as goldkingcoiner is proclaiming it to be, since he is bringing his likely already perceptions about the trend and then interpreting the Doji candle as bullish.  Perhaps an attempt to at the power of suggestion (otherwise known as wishful thinking)?

It is called a Doji candle and it can be both bullish and bearish? That makes it even less clear, but thanks for explaining what kind of candle it is. I think we can consider throwing out the cycle theory. Maybe there was never any cycle at all but it was just another case of humans recognizing patterns in chaos where that are none? We will see soon.

If you think about it, this is a Doji candle with the meeting in the middle, but there are ones with the meeting at the top or meetings at the bottom

Like this:



Perhaps we are closest to the gravestone Doji, and that does not sound particularly bullish... on the other hand, maybe we are just a common doji or a long legged doji?

Here's an article explaining Doji Candle types:  https://www.angelone.in/knowledge-center/share-market/types-of-doji

[edited out]

Well I did mention what happens if BTC goes sideways for a 8-10 year period of time like gold did for Clinton and part of baby bush.
basically gold did 200-400 usd slot for 10 years.  say 1992 to 2002

so maybe btc slots at 75k-130k for years.
one good thing if it happens is fuck that filthy 4 year cycle bullshit.

Over the years, your bitcoin sideways theories have not been working out for you very well, right?

You have been repeating those bitcoin sideways theories for quite a while, several years, and such theories have not been going too well for uie-pooie, especially if you consider all the cornz you failed/refused to accumulate between June 2022 and October 2023.  AmInotrite?

I am not even sure if you were participating in this thread very much prior to 2021.. yet prior to 2021 would have had been great times for guys to have had done a lot of their bitcoin accumulation too, in spite of any bitcoin sideways theories that they might have had continued to harbor back in those times prior to 2021, too.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

A blast from the past 1,000,000 plus feedbacks on ebay. Predates me on bitcointalk. circa 2011

[ESG]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Good buddy,  closed above the low is already a good sign, it would be better if it had opened above the high of yesterday... the low of day before was 86750... 
87200 now..far from ninethy