Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[xhomerx10]

Three minutes to ball drop!
Made it through another year.
Happy New Year guys!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[philipma1957]

got my last 2025 corn and my first 2026 corn

oh happy new years.

Edit:

also my first shot of whiskey for 2026!

[nutildah]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[philipma1957]

Hmm link for purchase?

[nutildah]

Hmm link for purchase?

It was a limited edition for 2025 only, sold out instantly. You might be able to find one on Ebay.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[JimboToronto]

Happy new year WOs.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[AlcoHoDL]

Happy New Year Wall Observers!

4-year cycles exist, and will always exist.

Proof [math & science]
Corollary [experience]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[JayJuanGee]

I feel the usual 4 year cycles are dead from now on
We had an ATH but this should have been a green year. In addition we now have 2 of 4 red years, when it was always just one.

Happy New Year everyone!

Welcome to the club.
The question is do we act like gold did 1992-2002
Stay in a 200-400 slot and now it is 11x bigger.

So does btc do 75k-135k for 6,7  years than go to a million around 2033?

If the 4 year cycle is dead it will have to start following macroeconomics more closely. Bitcoin can't follow stocks because it has no news to report about things like acquisitions, executives, patents, etc., and it definitely has no earnings, revenue, EBITDA or other financial metrics for analysts to report on. It's hung out in the breeze much like gold, silver and copper. That means more focus will be on the big miners, financial institutions, governments and companies pertaining to how many coins they have taken out of circulation...    

Happy New Year to everyone! Hoping you have a healthy, prosperous and peaceful year.

I mostly agree. If the 4-year cycle really is fading, Bitcoin will have to respond more to macro conditions than internal narratives. It doesn’t have earnings, executives, or product news like stocks, so it naturally behaves more like gold or other scarce commodities, where liquidity, real rates, and confidence in fiat systems matter most.

I also agree that attention will increasingly shift to who controls supply—large miners, institutions, governments, and long-term holders effectively removing coins from circulation. That supply concentration can matter more than day-to-day “news.”
Where I’d slightly push back is calling the cycle completely dead. It may be weaker or distorted by macro forces, but supply shocks and human behavior still exist.

Happy New Year to all—wishing everyone a healthy, peaceful, and prosperous 2026.

Bot meet udder bot.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Paashaas]

Happy new year WO!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Moreno233]

Happy New Year Wall Observers!

4-year cycles exist, and will always exist.

Proof [math & science]
Corollary [experience]

Technically yes but in reality, a lot have changed. Halving will happen in four years but the predictive bull and bear season that comes with it would have been distorted by ETF approval and the inflow of institutional funds. It will not be wise to expect everything to remain the same.

By the 4 -years cycles, we are supposed to be entering bear season this year but frankly speaking, I'm not ruling out the possibility of Bitcoin making a new ATH this year and if that happens, it contradicts the cycle we all knew. The only reasonable way to approach the market at this time is to play for the long term, and never hoping on buying on bear season and selling in bull season in a predictive manner like we used to have.
Happy new year HODLers

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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