Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

I feel the usual 4 year cycles are dead from now on

We had a (laughable) ATH but this should have been a green year. In addition we now have 2 of 4 red years, when it was always just one.


Happy New Year everyone!

An essential part of the 4-year-cycle is people declaring an end to the 4-year-cycle.

sounds like a version of the scotsman fallacy 

[philipma1957]

I feel the usual 4 year cycles are dead from now on

We had a (laughable) ATH but this should have been a green year. In addition we now have 2 of 4 red years, when it was always just one.


Happy New Year everyone!

An essential part of the 4-year-cycle is people declaring an end to the 4-year-cycle.

Sorry, it is not.

The current issuance is too minuscule to affect anything: 450btc is about $40 mil.
How $40mil daily affects a $33bil (today) market when it is just 0.12% of the daily volume?
It doesn't, imho.

The 4 year "cycle" currently exist only as an idea with no practical basis for it any longer.

PS: the 4 year issuance change does affect miners profitability and indirectly influences the overall price, but there is no mechanism in play that suggests that the previous pattern of highs and lows would continue...in fact, this year has broken it as 2025 is negative instead of positive as far as the price is concerned..a major 4 year cycle deviation.

And we hit the new ath before the 1/2 ing which was a new thing.


I have 90 minutes left in 2025.

I am in NJ, USA

I will buy 0.001 btc right before midnight .
I will buy 0.001 btc right after midnight.

I will drink a shot of my favorite whisky after midnight and after I buy the btc.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[SPIDERMAN008]

TIMES SQUARE , NEW YORK


https://x.com/i/status/2006337300545020262

This message i have seen first time in this  new year.
In the past, present, and future, I have given Bitcoin the highest priority.

Happy New Year to all bitcoiner
hope this year will be our.

[xhomerx10]

Three minutes to ball drop!
Made it through another year.
Happy New Year guys!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

got my last 2025 corn and my first 2026 corn

oh happy new years.

Edit:

also my first shot of whiskey for 2026!

[nutildah]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[philipma1957]

Hmm link for purchase?

[nutildah]

Hmm link for purchase?

It was a limited edition for 2025 only, sold out instantly. You might be able to find one on Ebay.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JimboToronto]

Happy new year WOs.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[AlcoHoDL]

Happy New Year Wall Observers!

4-year cycles exist, and will always exist.

Proof [math & science]
Corollary [experience]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

I feel the usual 4 year cycles are dead from now on
We had an ATH but this should have been a green year. In addition we now have 2 of 4 red years, when it was always just one.

Happy New Year everyone!

Welcome to the club.
The question is do we act like gold did 1992-2002
Stay in a 200-400 slot and now it is 11x bigger.

So does btc do 75k-135k for 6,7  years than go to a million around 2033?

If the 4 year cycle is dead it will have to start following macroeconomics more closely. Bitcoin can't follow stocks because it has no news to report about things like acquisitions, executives, patents, etc., and it definitely has no earnings, revenue, EBITDA or other financial metrics for analysts to report on. It's hung out in the breeze much like gold, silver and copper. That means more focus will be on the big miners, financial institutions, governments and companies pertaining to how many coins they have taken out of circulation...    

Happy New Year to everyone! Hoping you have a healthy, prosperous and peaceful year.

I mostly agree. If the 4-year cycle really is fading, Bitcoin will have to respond more to macro conditions than internal narratives. It doesn’t have earnings, executives, or product news like stocks, so it naturally behaves more like gold or other scarce commodities, where liquidity, real rates, and confidence in fiat systems matter most.

I also agree that attention will increasingly shift to who controls supply—large miners, institutions, governments, and long-term holders effectively removing coins from circulation. That supply concentration can matter more than day-to-day “news.”
Where I’d slightly push back is calling the cycle completely dead. It may be weaker or distorted by macro forces, but supply shocks and human behavior still exist.

Happy New Year to all—wishing everyone a healthy, peaceful, and prosperous 2026.

Bot meet udder bot.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Paashaas]

Happy new year WO!