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January 02, 2026, 01:45:31 PM *
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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26905856 times)
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JimboToronto
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January 01, 2026, 08:50:46 PM

I was so involved in NY celebration among friends that I forgot to make a NY resolution this time, so I am resolution-less for 2026  Grin.
I wonder what it means?
Hopefully, it means that I am free to do whatever.

That's my usual new year's resolution: don't make any silly rules.
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January 01, 2026, 09:01:18 PM


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January 01, 2026, 09:01:58 PM
Merited by Biodom (1)

New Year’s 2026

A did a last minute corn buy at 10 minutes to 12
B did a new corn buy at 10 minutes after 12
C did a shot of my favorite whiskey
D did 20 pushups at 12:15

watched the ball drop for Chicago at 1am eastern
crashed out.

Today paid monthly power bill for mining
made blackeyed peas greens spirial cut ham and corn bread for lunch

2026 resolution trip to upstate new york including Niagara falls.

continue mining.
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January 01, 2026, 09:09:52 PM
Merited by Gachapin (1)

New Year’s 2026

A did a last minute corn buy at 10 minutes to 12
B did a new corn buy at 10 minutes after 12
C did a shot of my favorite whiskey
D did 20 pushups at 12:15

watched the ball drop for Chicago at 1am eastern
crashed out.

Today paid monthly power bill for mining
made blackeyed peas greens spirial cut ham and corn bread for lunch

2026 resolution trip to upstate new york including Niagara falls.

continue mining.

Nice.  I'll making my first monthly DCA of 2026 later today.  About to jump back into the push-up challenge.  Ate 600mg of THC edibles last night.  Will continue solo mining Bitcoin until I hit a block.  Smiley
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January 01, 2026, 10:01:15 PM


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Muba20
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January 01, 2026, 10:04:07 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Hold Bitcoin



In 2011, you could get 5 Bitcoins by filling out just one captcha, and at that time, "hold" the word was difficult to understand. But in 2026, it is not negligence. It should start now. If you miss a small opportunity by negligence, it will not be recovered, as it was in 2011.
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January 01, 2026, 10:04:49 PM

Hopefully, it means that I am free to do whatever.
Yeah that’s the spirit.. touch not those cornz though
I do have one (same as 2025), stack as many as possible again this year..
New Year’s 2026

A did a last minute corn buy at 10 minutes to 12
B did a new corn buy at 10 minutes after 12
C did a shot of my favorite whiskey
D did 20 pushups at 12:15

watched the ball drop for Chicago at 1am eastern
crashed out.

Today paid monthly power bill for mining
made blackeyed peas greens spirial cut ham and corn bread for lunch

2026 resolution trip to upstate new york including Niagara falls.

continue mining.

 Will continue solo mining Bitcoin until I hit a block.  Smiley
How many pool even allow solo Bitcoin mining and is it possible to to get a total number of active solo miners?
JayJuanGee
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January 01, 2026, 10:42:19 PM

I feel the usual 4 year cycles are dead from now on
We had an ATH but this should have been a green year. In addition we now have 2 of 4 red years, when it was always just one.

Happy New Year everyone!
Welcome to the club.
The question is do we act like gold did 1992-2002

Stay in a 200-400 slot and now it is 11x bigger.
So does btc do 75k-135k for 6,7  years than go to a million around 2033?
6 , 7 was intentional
I am ok with Bitcoin going to million in 2033. 7 Years are not too far.

O.k.  Fair enough.

From our current price that would be right about 11.3x in 7 years.

We should not have anything to whine about if such a thing were to happen.

My a little bit outdated (not yet updated with a wee bit lower numbers) projections of the bottom (the 200-WMA), shows such bottom to be at nearly $366k in late 2032/early 2033. so the numbers don't even seem unreasonable, even though they are quite a bit less exponential than our historical numbers... yet we still need to deal with future potentiality rather than expecting that such future would necessarily be able to sustain similar levels of growth as our past BTC price performance.

[edited out]
The good thing is that after being so unlucky, it's unlikely to get worse Grin

Whoaza!!!!!!

Even if your intentions  might be good, you are sounding like a real party poop (and jinx too)..

 Angry Angry Angry Angry

Hold Bitcoin

In 2011, you could get 5 Bitcoins by filling out just one captcha, and at that time, "hold" the word was difficult to understand. But in 2026, it is not negligence. It should start now. If you miss a small opportunity by negligence, it will not be recovered, as it was in 2011.

Yep it is true.  No abilities for any of us to turn back the clock, and the best that any of us can do is to decide what we are going to do starting from today and then to act upon such conviction(s).

Hopefully, it means that I am free to do whatever.
Yeah that’s the spirit.. touch not those cornz though
I do have one (same as 2025), stack as many as possible again this year..

That sounds like a reasonable goal.

And what did you do prior to 2025?  I see you registered on the forum in August 2023.  

So were you able to stack any corn between August 2023 and December 2024?

It would have had been good if you had established such a goal of stacking as many cornz as possible starting around the time of your forum registration, yet I understand that sometimes it takes a bit of time before some of our forum members might come to determine that focusing on and stacking bitcoin as a good idea to prioritize and to put into practice.
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January 01, 2026, 10:56:50 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

New Year’s 2026

A did a last minute corn buy at 10 minutes to 12
B did a new corn buy at 10 minutes after 12
C did a shot of my favorite whiskey
D did 20 pushups at 12:15

watched the ball drop for Chicago at 1am eastern
crashed out.

Today paid monthly power bill for mining
made blackeyed peas greens spirial cut ham and corn bread for lunch

2026 resolution trip to upstate new york including Niagara falls.

continue mining.

Nice.  I'll making my first monthly DCA of 2026 later today.  About to jump back into the push-up challenge.  Ate 600mg of THC edibles last night.  Will continue solo mining Bitcoin until I hit a block.  Smiley

That's what I'd call a Chad!


Started my New Year with Wagyu filet, raw egg yolk and exercises.... hope I don't have go back to instant ramen this year




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January 01, 2026, 11:01:14 PM


Explanation
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JayJuanGee
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January 01, 2026, 11:36:46 PM

New Year’s 2026
A did a last minute corn buy at 10 minutes to 12
B did a new corn buy at 10 minutes after 12
C did a shot of my favorite whiskey
D did 20 pushups at 12:15

watched the ball drop for Chicago at 1am eastern
crashed out.
Today paid monthly power bill for mining
made blackeyed peas greens spirial cut ham and corn bread for lunch

2026 resolution trip to upstate new york including Niagara falls.
continue mining.
Nice.  I'll making my first monthly DCA of 2026 later today.  About to jump back into the push-up challenge.  Ate 600mg of THC edibles last night.  Will continue solo mining Bitcoin until I hit a block.  Smiley
That's what I'd call a Chad!

Started my New Year with Wagyu filet, raw egg yolk and exercises.... hope I don't have go back to instant ramen this year

With $88,600-ish prices, we are still bouncing around 30% below our October 6 top of $126,272...... which yeah, if we are like three months into some dippening, it could take a month or longer to get back to those early October prices.. .and there seem to be some folks who don't want the cornz to get back to such prices.. and I am not sure how much power such negative folks have to keep us from getting back into 6 digits or even getting back above $108k - since it seems that if we get back above $108k, then that price location may well create a sufficient amount of UPpity momentum, which may well be something that some folks are trying to avoid from happening.  

For reasons, I hope it does not take longer than 2.5-ish months to get back above $108k-ish.

And, anyway, my point was supposed to be that you (Gachapin) seem to be doing quite well to be whipping out both Wagyu and Eggs, and do you got moar of that?...

In udder words, are you looking to adopt?  
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January 01, 2026, 11:50:25 PM
Last edit: Today at 01:47:20 AM by BTCETFInvestor

New Year’s 2026

A did a last minute corn buy at 10 minutes to 12
B did a new corn buy at 10 minutes after 12
C did a shot of my favorite whiskey
D did 20 pushups at 12:15

watched the ball drop for Chicago at 1am eastern
crashed out.

Today paid monthly power bill for mining

made blackeyed peas greens spirial cut ham and corn bread for lunch

2026 resolution trip to upstate new york including Niagara falls.

continue mining.

Phil - I'm curious how many kWh you typically use per month for your mining. Not knowing what mining equipment you run, and if it runs at a reduced rate or runs less than 24/7 - it can vary a good amount...

Have you determined the wattage you're using per month for just the mining, breaking it out from your usage for the rest of the house?    

I think a Bitmain Antminer S9 (13.5TH/s) draws 1350 watts, so that is 32.4 kWh/Day and 972 kWh/Month, which at (I'm guessing 16¢ or 17¢ per kWh you likely pay in NJ) just one Antminer S9 costs about $160 per month to operate.  

What I don't know is how much Bitcoin can a person expect to mine each month using ~$160 worth of electricity .  At 13.5TH/s isn't it a sizeable loss to mine? If so, why do it?
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OgNasty
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Today at 12:08:07 AM

First Bitcoin buy of 2026 is in the books for me.  

I have purchased 0.01412277 BTC for $1,246.34 at a price of $88,250.40 per Bitcoin.

Additionally, I sold 12 ounces of silver today, taking advantage of the highest silver/BTC ratio we've had in years.

I am feeling especially proud to have beaten the S&P 500 return this year with my personal investment portfolio.

Hope to keep this run going in 2026!


Will continue solo mining Bitcoin until I hit a block.  Smiley
How many pool even allow solo Bitcoin mining and is it possible to to get a total number of active solo miners?

There are lots of pools out there that allow solo mining and some that are even dedicated to it.  This is probably the largest and a good place to look to see the scale of solo mining being done.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5237323.0
promise444c5
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Today at 12:33:30 AM
Last edit: Today at 01:33:08 AM by promise444c5
Merited by vapourminer (1)

That sounds like a reasonable goal.

And what did you do prior to 2025?  I see you registered on the forum in August 2023.  

So were you able to stack any corn between August 2023 and December 2024?
Yes, but not in 2023... I wasn’t really concerned about getting Bitcoin back then until 2024, when I started to get curious  and wanted to learn more about it. I had some altcoins before joining the forum so  I actually started with those. I’m not sure of the exact month, but it was probably around early March, I think.

Quote
It would have had been good if you had established such a goal of stacking as many cornz as possible starting around the time of your forum registration, yet I understand that sometimes it takes a bit of time before some of our forum members might come to determine that focusing on and stacking bitcoin as a good idea to prioritize and to put into practice.
Actually, I never had the plan of holding any Bitcoin until i joined the thread “Buy the Dip and Hodl”.. It might sound funny, but that thread actually gave me the first step to holding Bitcoin.
I am not sure of the price when i joined the forum, but I still met it around $50k~$70k. It went down to $48k once, then from $70k. But then i made some irrational decisions..

I was trying to take advantage of demand and supply because it went on for a while from $50k~$71k before the major breakout that took us to $100k+ in November 2024. I sold around 60k after a previous attempt that was successful, but then I was holding it from the last 55k buy, hoping it would reach 69~70k before selling. But it reversed around 66k. It didn’t hit my sell limit before declining. For a moment, I thought I could buy back around 52~53k again so I sold around $60k (as I’ve mentioned earlier) but then it started pumping slowly immediately after I sold at 60k..
I thought i was just going to hold it until it comes down once again, but i placed a buy around 75k because I was afraid it might fake out and then bounce back again. The 75k was just for FOMO in case it never declined. All this was around early October, It never got back to $53k..the lowest I got was $59k, and then it dragged up until the bull run started.
That was when i completely just DCA and bought extra dips. I did that all through the November (2024)~  2025.. before then, it was still DCA btw.
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Gachapin
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Today at 01:42:18 AM

New Year’s 2026
A did a last minute corn buy at 10 minutes to 12
B did a new corn buy at 10 minutes after 12
C did a shot of my favorite whiskey
D did 20 pushups at 12:15

watched the ball drop for Chicago at 1am eastern
crashed out.
Today paid monthly power bill for mining
made blackeyed peas greens spirial cut ham and corn bread for lunch

2026 resolution trip to upstate new york including Niagara falls.
continue mining.
Nice.  I'll making my first monthly DCA of 2026 later today.  About to jump back into the push-up challenge.  Ate 600mg of THC edibles last night.  Will continue solo mining Bitcoin until I hit a block.  Smiley
That's what I'd call a Chad!

Started my New Year with Wagyu filet, raw egg yolk and exercises.... hope I don't have go back to instant ramen this year

....you (Gachapin) seem to be doing quite well to be whipping out both Wagyu and Eggs, and do you got moar of that?...

In udder words, are you looking to adopt?  

it's New Year, I don't eat Wagyu daily! Eggs on the other hand, well, I think they are power food, especially raw. So I eat a lot of them. But I avoid mass farmed eggs.

I just learned that there is water in the egg white that you should get rid of before eating the white raw.
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Today at 01:46:49 AM

That sounds like a reasonable goal.

And what did you do prior to 2025?  I see you registered on the forum in August 2023.  

So were you able to stack any corn between August 2023 and December 2024?
Yeah, but not in 2023... I wasn’t really concerned about getting Bitcoin back then until 2024, when I started to get curious  and wanted to learn more about it. I had some altcoins before joining the forum so  I actually started with those. I’m not sure of the exact month, but it was probably around early March, I think.
It would have had been good if you had established such a goal of stacking as many cornz as possible starting around the time of your forum registration, yet I understand that sometimes it takes a bit of time before some of our forum members might come to determine that focusing on and stacking bitcoin as a good idea to prioritize and to put into practice.
Actually, I never had the plan of holding any Bitcoin until I joined the thread “Buy the Dip and Hodl”.. It might sound funny, but that thread actually gave me the first step to holding Bitcoin.
I am not sure of the price when I joined the forum, but I still met it around $50k~$70k. It went down to $48k once, then from $70k. But then I made some irrational decisions..

 I was trying to take advantage of demand and supply because it went on for a while from $50k~$71k before the major breakout that took us to $100k+ in November 2024. I sold around 60k after a previous attempt that was successful, but then I was holding it from the last 55k buy, hoping it would reach 69~70k before selling. But it reversed around 66k. It didn’t hit my sell limit before declining. For a moment, I thought I could buy back around 52~53k again so I sold around $60k (as I’ve mentioned earlier) but then it started pumping slowly immediately after I sold at 60k.. I thought I was just going to hold it until it came back once again, but then I placed a buy around 75k because I was afraid it might fake out and then bounce back again. The 75k was just for FOMO in case it never declined. All this was around early October, It never got back to $53k..the lowest I got was $59k, and then it dragged up until the bull run started.
That was when I completely just DCA and bought extra dips. I did that all through the November (2024)~  2025.. before then it was still DCA btw.

None of that sounds like DCAing, even though guys could DCA in order to establish a bitcoin position and then later on sell that position, yet DCA usually applies better to investing rather than to trading because with DCA there is a bit of a blindness to the BTC price since there is both an assumption that in the longer term (such as the period of the investment), the BTC price would generally trend up so that the holdings would ultimately end up in profits, so then by the time selling might later be triggered, the concern might not be so much regarding the extent of the profits, but instead how much BTC had been accumulated that would then give more financial options.

What you are describing sounds like trading rather than investing, and not really focusing on accumulating bitcoin.  It seems disturbing to hear some of the back and forth of what you seemed to have been trying to do and potentially ONLY eeking out small profits, even if you might not get caught on the wrong side of some trade attempts.   It also seems challenging to try to figure out how you could have had done better by buying and selling bitcoin rather than just staying focused on buying only.  

Perhaps you are saying that at some point (perhaps starting in early 2025 - for your 2025 New Year's resolution?), you transitioned into a buying ONLY approach -  where you were no longer trying to trade dee cornz?  

You likely know my own philosophy and views that I try to repeatedly emphasize a suggestion that guys who are in their whole first cycle of being involved in bitcoin should be focusing on buying only.. and even my suggestion that selling BTC does not really come into play until guys reach overaccumulation status, since selling bitcoin does not seem like a good strategy for guys who are intending to accumulate bitcoin or who calculate that they do not have enough bitcoin. ..

So, I personally have a hard time figuring out how guys who want to accumulate bitcoin could make progress in their bitcoin accumulation (or their stack size) if they are mixing both buying and selling rather than staying focused on buying only practices.  

Surely there could be some guys who are able to outperform buy only techniques in the short-to-medium term, yet if we are looking 6-8 or more years in the future, I doubt that there are any replicable trading strategies that would end up beating strategies that stay focused on ongoing buying and holding.  

Maybe, at best, you ONLY have 1 year of accumulating bitcoin?  and so the beginning of 2025 would not have had been as good of a time to get started investing in bitcoin and buying only, as compared to starting earlier.. yet still guys end up having to start their investment (to the extent that they do it) at some point.. yet if they had ended up starting at or towards a top, then it could take longer before the holdings get clearly into profits.. which is also part of the rationale to continue to stay focused on buying only for 4 years or longer, even though there could have had been some high price times within the 4-years that might make it harder for the BTC holdings to be in profits.  

[edited out]
it's New Year, I don't eat Wagyu daily! Eggs on the other hand, well, I think they are power food, especially raw. So I eat a lot of them. But I avoid mass farmed eggs.

I just learned that there is water in the egg white that you should get rid of before eating the white raw.

I agree with eating the yolks, but I thought it would probably be better to eat the whole egg rather than just part of it, whether cooked or not.

Fair enough. I won't further pursue the adoption topic.
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Today at 01:47:14 AM
Merited by fillippone (6), vapourminer (1)

New Year’s 2026

A did a last minute corn buy at 10 minutes to 12
B did a new corn buy at 10 minutes after 12
C did a shot of my favorite whiskey
D did 20 pushups at 12:15

watched the ball drop for Chicago at 1am eastern
crashed out.

Today paid monthly power bill for mining

made blackeyed peas greens spirial cut ham and corn bread for lunch

2026 resolution trip to upstate new york including Niagara falls.

continue mining.

Phil - I'm curious how many kWh you typically use per month for your mining. Not knowing what mining equipment you run, and if it runs at a reduced rate or runs less than 24/7 - it can vary a good amount...

Have you determined the wattage you're using per month for just the mining, breaking it out from your usage for the rest of the house?    

I think a Bitmain Antminer S9 (13.5TH/s) draws 1350 watts, so that is 32.4 kWh/Day and 972 kWh/Month, which at (I'm guessing 16¢ or 17¢ per kWh you likely pay in NJ) just one Antminer S9 costs about $160 per month to operate.  

What I don't know is how much Bitcoin can be mined each month at an electrical cost of ~$160.  At 13.5TH/s isn't it a sizeable loss to mine?  

I mine with modified t21's in my house.

3x24x31=2,232 kwatts at 20 cents = 446 usd I pay with a 5% discount so 446x0.95=424 a month for power




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Today at 01:55:26 AM
Merited by fillippone (6), vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1)

424 for power for gear that earns 207 a month means home mining is losing 217 a month. but

I generate 3412 btus per Kwatt or  10k btus an hour 24/7

so my heating bill is close to zero vs about 200.

Thus I break even at my home mining for 5 -6 months a year.

At current terrible price and difficulty numbers.

My real mining is at far lower price at a host in Iowa
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