Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Gachapin]

New Year’s 2026
A did a last minute corn buy at 10 minutes to 12
B did a new corn buy at 10 minutes after 12
C did a shot of my favorite whiskey
D did 20 pushups at 12:15

watched the ball drop for Chicago at 1am eastern
crashed out.
Today paid monthly power bill for mining
made blackeyed peas greens spirial cut ham and corn bread for lunch

2026 resolution trip to upstate new york including Niagara falls.
continue mining.

Nice.  I'll making my first monthly DCA of 2026 later today.  About to jump back into the push-up challenge.  Ate 600mg of THC edibles last night.  Will continue solo mining Bitcoin until I hit a block.  

That's what I'd call a Chad!

Started my New Year with Wagyu filet, raw egg yolk and exercises.... hope I don't have go back to instant ramen this year

....you (Gachapin) seem to be doing quite well to be whipping out both Wagyu and Eggs, and do you got moar of that?...

In udder words, are you looking to adopt?  

it's New Year, I don't eat Wagyu daily! Eggs on the other hand, well, I think they are power food, especially raw. So I eat a lot of them. But I avoid mass farmed eggs.

I just learned that there is water in the egg white that you should get rid of before eating the white raw.

[JayJuanGee]

That sounds like a reasonable goal.

And what did you do prior to 2025?  I see you registered on the forum in August 2023.  

So were you able to stack any corn between August 2023 and December 2024?

Yeah, but not in 2023... I wasn’t really concerned about getting Bitcoin back then until 2024, when I started to get curious  and wanted to learn more about it. I had some altcoins before joining the forum so  I actually started with those. I’m not sure of the exact month, but it was probably around early March, I think.

It would have had been good if you had established such a goal of stacking as many cornz as possible starting around the time of your forum registration, yet I understand that sometimes it takes a bit of time before some of our forum members might come to determine that focusing on and stacking bitcoin as a good idea to prioritize and to put into practice.

Actually, I never had the plan of holding any Bitcoin until I joined the thread “Buy the Dip and Hodl”.. It might sound funny, but that thread actually gave me the first step to holding Bitcoin.
I am not sure of the price when I joined the forum, but I still met it around $50k~$70k. It went down to $48k once, then from $70k. But then I made some irrational decisions..

 I was trying to take advantage of demand and supply because it went on for a while from $50k~$71k before the major breakout that took us to $100k+ in November 2024. I sold around 60k after a previous attempt that was successful, but then I was holding it from the last 55k buy, hoping it would reach 69~70k before selling. But it reversed around 66k. It didn’t hit my sell limit before declining. For a moment, I thought I could buy back around 52~53k again so I sold around $60k (as I’ve mentioned earlier) but then it started pumping slowly immediately after I sold at 60k.. I thought I was just going to hold it until it came back once again, but then I placed a buy around 75k because I was afraid it might fake out and then bounce back again. The 75k was just for FOMO in case it never declined. All this was around early October, It never got back to $53k..the lowest I got was $59k, and then it dragged up until the bull run started.
That was when I completely just DCA and bought extra dips. I did that all through the November (2024)~  2025.. before then it was still DCA btw.

None of that sounds like DCAing, even though guys could DCA in order to establish a bitcoin position and then later on sell that position, yet DCA usually applies better to investing rather than to trading because with DCA there is a bit of a blindness to the BTC price since there is both an assumption that in the longer term (such as the period of the investment), the BTC price would generally trend up so that the holdings would ultimately end up in profits, so then by the time selling might later be triggered, the concern might not be so much regarding the extent of the profits, but instead how much BTC had been accumulated that would then give more financial options.

What you are describing sounds like trading rather than investing, and not really focusing on accumulating bitcoin.  It seems disturbing to hear some of the back and forth of what you seemed to have been trying to do and potentially ONLY eeking out small profits, even if you might not get caught on the wrong side of some trade attempts.   It also seems challenging to try to figure out how you could have had done better by buying and selling bitcoin rather than just staying focused on buying only.  

Perhaps you are saying that at some point (perhaps starting in early 2025 - for your 2025 New Year's resolution?), you transitioned into a buying ONLY approach -  where you were no longer trying to trade dee cornz?  

You likely know my own philosophy and views that I try to repeatedly emphasize a suggestion that guys who are in their whole first cycle of being involved in bitcoin should be focusing on buying only.. and even my suggestion that selling BTC does not really come into play until guys reach overaccumulation status, since selling bitcoin does not seem like a good strategy for guys who are intending to accumulate bitcoin or who calculate that they do not have enough bitcoin. ..

So, I personally have a hard time figuring out how guys who want to accumulate bitcoin could make progress in their bitcoin accumulation (or their stack size) if they are mixing both buying and selling rather than staying focused on buying only practices.  

Surely there could be some guys who are able to outperform buy only techniques in the short-to-medium term, yet if we are looking 6-8 or more years in the future, I doubt that there are any replicable trading strategies that would end up beating strategies that stay focused on ongoing buying and holding.  

Maybe, at best, you ONLY have 1 year of accumulating bitcoin?  and so the beginning of 2025 would not have had been as good of a time to get started investing in bitcoin and buying only, as compared to starting earlier.. yet still guys end up having to start their investment (to the extent that they do it) at some point.. yet if they had ended up starting at or towards a top, then it could take longer before the holdings get clearly into profits.. which is also part of the rationale to continue to stay focused on buying only for 4 years or longer, even though there could have had been some high price times within the 4-years that might make it harder for the BTC holdings to be in profits.  

[edited out]

it's New Year, I don't eat Wagyu daily! Eggs on the other hand, well, I think they are power food, especially raw. So I eat a lot of them. But I avoid mass farmed eggs.

I just learned that there is water in the egg white that you should get rid of before eating the white raw.

I agree with eating the yolks, but I thought it would probably be better to eat the whole egg rather than just part of it, whether cooked or not.

Fair enough. I won't further pursue the adoption topic.

[philipma1957]

New Year’s 2026

A did a last minute corn buy at 10 minutes to 12
B did a new corn buy at 10 minutes after 12
C did a shot of my favorite whiskey
D did 20 pushups at 12:15

watched the ball drop for Chicago at 1am eastern
crashed out.

Today paid monthly power bill for mining

made blackeyed peas greens spirial cut ham and corn bread for lunch

2026 resolution trip to upstate new york including Niagara falls.

continue mining.

Phil - I'm curious how many kWh you typically use per month for your mining. Not knowing what mining equipment you run, and if it runs at a reduced rate or runs less than 24/7 - it can vary a good amount...

Have you determined the wattage you're using per month for just the mining, breaking it out from your usage for the rest of the house?    

I think a Bitmain Antminer S9 (13.5TH/s) draws 1350 watts, so that is 32.4 kWh/Day and 972 kWh/Month, which at (I'm guessing 16¢ or 17¢ per kWh you likely pay in NJ) just one Antminer S9 costs about $160 per month to operate.  

What I don't know is how much Bitcoin can be mined each month at an electrical cost of ~$160.  At 13.5TH/s isn't it a sizeable loss to mine?  

I mine with modified t21's in my house.

3x24x31=2,232 kwatts at 20 cents = 446 usd I pay with a 5% discount so 446x0.95=424 a month for power

[philipma1957]

424 for power for gear that earns 207 a month means home mining is losing 217 a month. but

I generate 3412 btus per Kwatt or  10k btus an hour 24/7

so my heating bill is close to zero vs about 200.

Thus I break even at my home mining for 5 -6 months a year.

At current terrible price and difficulty numbers.

My real mining is at far lower price at a host in Iowa

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

New Year’s 2026

A did a last minute corn buy at 10 minutes to 12
B did a new corn buy at 10 minutes after 12
C did a shot of my favorite whiskey
D did 20 pushups at 12:15

watched the ball drop for Chicago at 1am eastern
crashed out.

Today paid monthly power bill for mining

made blackeyed peas greens spirial cut ham and corn bread for lunch

2026 resolution trip to upstate new york including Niagara falls.

continue mining.

Phil - I'm curious how many kWh you typically use per month for your mining. Not knowing what mining equipment you run, and if it runs at a reduced rate or runs less than 24/7 - it can vary a good amount...

Have you determined the wattage you're using per month for just the mining, breaking it out from your usage for the rest of the house?    

I think a Bitmain Antminer S9 (13.5TH/s) draws 1350 watts, so that is 32.4 kWh/Day and 972 kWh/Month, which at (I'm guessing 16¢ or 17¢ per kWh you likely pay in NJ) just one Antminer S9 costs about $160 per month to operate.  

What I don't know is how much Bitcoin can be mined each month at an electrical cost of ~$160.  At 13.5TH/s isn't it a sizeable loss to mine?  

I mine with modified t21's in my house.

3x24x31=2,232 kwatts at 20 cents = 446 usd I pay with a 5% discount so 446x0.95=424 a month for power

Yeah, I figured around $400+ per month for just one T21.  At the current BTC price isn't that a loss of about $150 per T21? Why mine when it doesn't pay - it seems to actually be a money burner! What am I missing about this?

[BTCETFInvestor]

424 for power for gear that earns 207 a month means home mining is losing 217 a month. but

I generate 3412 btus per Kwatt or  10k btus an hour 24/7

so my heating bill is close to zero vs about 200.

Thus I break even at my home mining for 5 -6 months a year.

At current terrible price and difficulty numbers.

My real mining is at far lower price at a host in Iowa

Okay, that's great! You must have something special setup to draw the heat into ductwork and circulate it through the house using the air handler. I like the idea o using the equipment heat to heat the house it is possible instead of using electricity or natural gas for heat.

I've got a family member that has a AL-1000 gas meter with a capacity of 2.5 million BTU/hr with two 2" lines, capable of flowing as the same time - which is needed for a huge house wit five HVAC systems, cooking equipment, grill and pizza oven, multiple tankless water heaters, clothes dryers, twenty outdoor gas lighting fixtures, swimming pool/Spa heating, etc. - and the other 2" gas line feeds a 150kW commercial size generator to make electricity for the whole house with an 800 amp service if utility power is ever out. His natural gas bill can be enormous if there is a lot of gas equipment used. Thankfully it usually doesn't get really cold in North Texas and if it does, it doesn't last long.

I rode my mountain bike a little today in shorts and a t-shirt because it was sunny and 72° on January 1st and your area still has snow on the ground and temps close to teens.

BTW, Happy New Year to you, Phil - Hoping you have a healthy, prosperous and meaningful 2026. And, Go Bitcoin! Go up, that is!!!      

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

[edited out]

it's New Year, I don't eat Wagyu daily! Eggs on the other hand, well, I think they are power food, especially raw. So I eat a lot of them. But I avoid mass farmed eggs.

I just learned that there is water in the egg white that you should get rid of before eating the white raw.

I agree with eating the yolks, but I thought it would probably be better to eat the whole egg rather than just part of it, whether cooked or not.

Fair enough. I won't further pursue the adoption topic.

I only get rid of the water in the egg white, the actual white I eat. sometimes raw sometimes I keep it and fry it later.

I think you got more coin than me (I think it was 0.21 or so), so you should be the one to adopt someone

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

it's New Year, I don't eat Wagyu daily! Eggs on the other hand, well, I think they are power food, especially raw. So I eat a lot of them. But I avoid mass farmed eggs.

I just learned that there is water in the egg white that you should get rid of before eating the white raw.

I agree with eating the yolks, but I thought it would probably be better to eat the whole egg rather than just part of it, whether cooked or not.

Fair enough. I won't further pursue the adoption topic.

I only get rid of the water in the egg white, the actual white I eat. sometimes raw sometimes I keep it and fry it later.

I think you got more coin than me (I think it was 0.21 or so), so you should be the one to adopt someone

At some point I had said that I had more than 0.63 BTC, so as time passes, I might end up not having as many as I used to have, yet more than 0.63 BTC isn't really that bad for someone who has a year or two in bitcoin - even though we tend to assume that longer term guys have more coin, which is not always a correct assumption.

I do like to mix my real and my fictional so there might be some obscurity about the specifics - even though surely prior to 2020, I used to use $1 million (or the ability to withdraw $3,333 per month) as the default entry level fuck you status, even the millionaire in 2020 was not as meaningful as the millionaire in  2010 or the millionaire in 2000 or surely 1990, that was probably when being a millionaire meant something.

I still believe that it was fair to move up entry level fuck you status to $2 million or $6,666 per month in 2020 - even though even that is getting diluted away, even though we still have quite a bit of variance around the world where $6,666 per month does not mean shit in some western locations and especially some of the BIGGER city areas in the western locations, yet there are also places around the world where $6,666 per month can really mean something... for even the majority of the population who might ONLY be making a fraction of that and having to work as well.

Probably around 2020, I also moved away from the use of spot price as a way to valuate wealth, and the use of the 200-WMA seems to allow for a much more stable way of counting on a withdrawal rate that would rely on that, which means that currently to get to a $6,666 monthly income, I assess that a guy would need 14.0676 BTC, so the amount of bitcoin needed keeps coming down and down and down, even though it could well take until around 2040 before 0.63 BTC territories might start to be able to support a $6,666 per month income, which surely we are likely going to need to double entry level fuck you status, perhaps in 2030 and also in 2040. The greatness of the debasement the dollar continues to be a bit of an unknown.. so maybe by 2040.. entry level fuck you status would be based on a presumption of $10 million in wealth, which would mean around a $33k per month income, which seems a bit unwieldily at the moment and as if something may well need to break pretty badly in the next 15-ish years.

My point in using those default fuck you status numbers is not to reflect on myself, yet meant to be a reflection of a kind of normal (not too rich and not too poor) person's entry level (threshold amount) to get out of the rat race and to be able to live somewhat comfortable given the status of not having to work and also the entry-level status of being able to live somewhat comfortably.  I also presume that once the person reaches whatever sustainable withdrawal status, bitcoin coin should be able to allow him to presume giving himself up to a 7% per year raise in terms of the dollar amount.. so one thing is getting started and another thing is keeping it going once it is started.. which presumes having enough BTC to have the threshold status but also perhaps a bit extra as a cushion, too.

By the way, I calculate that the current sustainable withdrawal rate for 0.63 BTC would be about $3,853 per year, which would be about $300 per month (of course with perhaps up to a 7% per year increase in the dollar rate), which is not very much, even in very poor places around the world, even though surely there would be some folks who would be quite happy with $300 per month for the rest of their life with up to a 7% per year increase in the amount... and that is before they decide to deplete the principle.  I know that some folks don't necessarily agree with whether the rate that I have figured out is sustainable, yet I surely think that my position on the matter is defendable... and I think that it is likely to work (until and unless the 200-WMA discontinues going up greater than 10% per year, which I think it is going to take a while for it to stop growing at least at 10% or more per year.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[OutOfMemory]

[edited out]

The good thing is that after being so unlucky, it's unlikely to get worse

Whoaza!!!!!!

Even if your intentions  might be good, you are sounding like a real party poop (and jinx too)..

 

Backed by statistics and personal experiences.
But, honestly, the party was already over when i replied to @Hueristic  
I trained myself so much to search for the good aspects of bad events in the past (to fight depression and/or keep motivation high), that it became quite a habit.

[edited out]

it's New Year, I don't eat Wagyu daily! Eggs on the other hand, well, I think they are power food, especially raw. So I eat a lot of them. But I avoid mass farmed eggs.

I just learned that there is water in the egg white that you should get rid of before eating the white raw.

I agree with eating the yolks, but I thought it would probably be better to eat the whole egg rather than just part of it, whether cooked or not.

Consider that raw egg white contains Avidin, a Protein that binds to Biotin (Vitamin B7) reducing bioavailability quite much.
Once in a while should be OK, but if you do this regularly, it's advisable to separate the yolk and heat only the egg white before digesting. This doesn't really harm the Proteins much, and the nutrients are fully preserved in the raw yolk.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

[edited out]

The good thing is that after being so unlucky, it's unlikely to get worse

Whoaza!!!!!!

Even if your intentions  might be good, you are sounding like a real party poop (and jinx too)..

 

Backed by statistics and personal experiences.
But, honestly, the party was already over when i replied to @Hueristic  
I trained myself so much to search for the good aspects of bad events in the past (to fight depression and/or keep motivation high), that it became quite a habit.

[edited out]

it's New Year, I don't eat Wagyu daily! Eggs on the other hand, well, I think they are power food, especially raw. So I eat a lot of them. But I avoid mass farmed eggs.

I just learned that there is water in the egg white that you should get rid of before eating the white raw.

I agree with eating the yolks, but I thought it would probably be better to eat the whole egg rather than just part of it, whether cooked or not.

Consider that raw egg white contains Avidin, a Protein that binds to Biotin (Vitamin B7) reducing bioavailability quite much.
Once in a while should be OK, but if you do this regularly, it's advisable to separate the yolk and heat only the egg white before digesting. This doesn't really harm the Proteins much, and the nutrients are fully preserved in the raw yolk.

Thanks! good point!
I think I wll fry/cook the egg white every time from now on!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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