Of course, there is loss and there is fail to gain, and if you were to be accumulating bitcoin in a long term meaningful way, such as more than 10 years into the future, then the gains (or the failures to lose) might not be measurable until several years into the future... so your desires to take various short term profits, even within the cycle seem to be quite problematic to me --- yet sure, if you are not ready, willing and/or able to play longer term timelines, such as greater than 10 years, then you likely will be experiencing quite lower levels of profits including that you had not allowed bitcoin's profits (value) to compound upon itself).
It is understandable that for some folks (who have age and/or health issues) they might not be able to commit to building up their bitcoin and then mostly HODLing it 10 years or longer.
By the way, did you ever attempt to figure out what your level of bitcoin would have had been if you stayed focused on ONLY buying bitcoin as soon as you figured out that bitcoin was something to accumulate.
Did that here :
Sold @69k then bought back around 55k that same August, not upto a week.. with the $13k difference in price.
..Sold now @60k…hoping to buy back at 53k but then it never happened so I bought back at $75k with a difference of $15k from where I sold. So I lost a little stash due to 2k difference in price..
So if I had just bought then I would have made My final stash + the amount of Bitcoin I lost and above ( the continuous buying)
Frequently, I like to consider the base case, as you seem to be suggesting, to just buy bitcoin at various points that the money comes available and to measure that (without the selling).. so then the bitcoin stash will continue to get larger and sure some of the BTC will be bought at higher prices and some bought at lower prices, yet the measurement would have been fairly straight forward.
If a guy is continuously buying and selling, he may well lose track of what is happening in terms of gains and losses.. even though sure, it is possible to measure.. so then the calculations would be about how much money was put in and how many BTC there are to show for it.
Even though there are likely a few guys who actively participate in this thread who also trade some of their bitcoin, yet not too many guys here likely give too many shits in regards to the extent that you might have had gotten lucky to sell cornz and to buy back cheaper... which presumptively would mean that you have more bitcoin for the same amount of value that you had put in, yet when we weigh the buys, the sells the buys, the sells and the buys, then it can be a bit difficult to keep track beyond the more base number that relates to how much you put in and how many BTC you currently have to show for it, and you can compare that to a straight-forward comparison point in which you just continuously buy and without selling.
There also might be guys who authorize money for BTC buys, so they might hold their money in dollars until they buy in the future, perhaps setting that money up for buying BTC on dips.... So that money stays in cash until bitcoin dip conditions are met... .. so I don't see anything wrong with having a cash ledger and a bitcoin ledger and so some of the money is in cash and other money is in bitcoin... If you are moving back and forth from bitcoin to cash and from cash to bitcoin, then most likely you would be trying to keep track of your cash and bitcoin levels at various points along the way in your wealth building journey.
I understand that you are proclaiming that you were not quite unlost around the time of your forum registration in August 2023, yet you seemed to indicate that at some point, you began to recognize the value of accumulating bitcoin - yet I am still getting the sense that you are lost in regards to the ways that you are going about bitcoin accumulation, whether trading and maybe you would still go back to shitcoins if you were to conclude that some shitcoin might come available in which you perceive that putting value into that shitcoin (rather than staying focused on directly accumulating bitcoin) might end up allowing you to accumulate more bitcoin than a direct buying of bitcoin approach.
Converting my
shitcoins to bitcoin was one of the the best decisions I’ve ever made and I don’t regret it..
Great. Shitcoin's make matters even more confusing - even though surely there are guys who are inclined towards taking chances with shitcoins and perhaps considering that they might be able to identify one (or more than one) in which they are able to profit greater than bitcoin. I'll take with a grain of salt your claim that you gave up shitcoins.
Well.. it’s what you think and you’re not wrong but I myself already made a firm decision to continue buying (precisely DCA) till I think it’s enough to start taking profit.
Your framing bitcoin as a trade rather than as an investment, and maybe it will all work out fine for you. My own view of bitcoin as a lifelong investment are not even necessarily shared by other forum members, even though there are likely quite a few of us who consider that once our bitcoin stash gets large enough then it might not even be considerations of profits that end up assisting us to figure out how much bitcoin we might shave off of our stash from time to time..
I suppose that I won't argue that profits are completely irrelevant, yet I still think that there are plenty of guys getting overly exited with 2x to 5x profits, when they likely would have had been better off to hold (and maybe even keep accumulating) another cycle or more so that they "profits" end up being quite a bit larger.. and yeah, I think it is a bit problematic to be focusing on profits rather than sustainable withdrawal.. so once withdrawal is authorized, the withdrawal rate is generally lower than the amount that the bitcoin is growing in value...
So sure, profits might well be somewhere in the formula, even though the main portion is mostly allowing the bitcoin to continue to grow and not cashing out too much... which also might mean continuing to buy bitcoin longer than you anticipated and not selling any as early as you had anticipated... but yeah, guys can do whatever they like, even engaging in BTC portfolio management strategies that are unsustainable and going to leave them as a low coiner or a no coiner way earlier than they had anticipated because they failed/refused to see the value in making sure not to sell too many of their coins too soon and they failed/refused to see the value of making sure that they had enough (or more than enough) coins. There is ONLY so much that can be done to save people from themselves and their inabilities to resist either consuming or investing into inferior assets.
Yeah but you missed November ~ December, most was $90k~$95k.
What do you mean? You said that this year you were going to try to accumulate as much bitcoin as you can.
You also said that you did the same thing at the beginning of 2025.
Yeah I did , but I already started doing that “only “ since November 2024 before 2025..
What I meant there was that, most of my entries for that same November ~December came in @ $90k ~$95k.
Of course, my own punchline idea is that bitcoin accumulations through buying only likely need to be ongoing, persistent, consistent, regular and perhaps even aggressive for 1-2 cycles or more - which also means a bit of blindness to price, which also likely means that it takes time to build up a bitcoin stash, unless you are able to front load by reallocating into bitcoin from some other assets that you might have.
Another thing is that up until now, starting to buy bitcoin in November/December 2024 would have not been the greatest time to start accumulating your bitcoin, yet we also know that we cannot turn back the clock, so if we had ended up starting to accumulate bitcoin in November / December 2024, then it is not like we can go back in time and once we are already accumulating bitcoin through buying, we cannot even know if BTC prices are going to go down in the future.., which is part of the rationale for just continued and regular accumulating through buying once the buying had already started.
BTW Jan 13-14 if we do not hit 101k we will officially be out of correction and into bear.
Where did you hear such dumb shit?
You think that there is some kind of a bright line (date and price) that defines whether the BTC price is in a correction rather than a bear market?
Get a grip, Phil.
Frequently, it is not going to be known that a transition into bear market had happened until several months after being in the bear or in a correction.. and then some kind of threshold is crossed, and even if such a threshold is crossed, not everyone is going to agree -which might be part of the explanation for why, in every market, there are winners and losers and they do not necessarily agree, which is part of the explanation for why they are on opposite sides of the trade.
Of course, some of the players are smaller level players who are just trying to figure out how to play their hand, and other players are trying to manipulate the market into what they would like it to be and hope that others will follow.
Manipulators don't always get their way either, and I suppose many normies appreciate if manipulators get blown up - especially since we cannot always know the extent of their nefariousness.
BTW Jan 13-14 if we do not hit 101k we will officially be out of correction and into bear.
Any guess on if we go past 101k
Why those particular dates?
Because Phil loves to pull shit out of his ass, and then preach such pieces of information as if they were some kind of gospel vision. He doesn't seem able to control himself from such.
BTW Jan 13-14 if we do not hit 101k we will officially be out of correction and into bear.
Any guess on if we go past 101k
Why those particular dates?
Well to be a true bear and not a correction time and price drop is needed.
We have the price drop we need.
On Jan 13-14 the two month time for the large drop will be there thus being a true bear.
Ie 25% drop for 2 months.
But as bears go this drop sucks and many will find that they are down bigly.So while it is technically still a correction it feels like a bear.
You mean that there are some guys who sold and they are waiting for even lower prices?
or
something else?
Supposedly you have been buying all the way down, and supposedly, you picked up more BTC than expected.
Yet, of course, you are still holding back on your bitcoin buys because you consider that there is value in trading and/or trying to sell in order to accumulate more bitcoin, which also translates in your ongoing hedging towards downs that might or might not end up happening.
I understand that it can be painful for guys to hedge more towards up rather than down, yet it seems that the worst of that hedging towards up pain is during the first whole cycle, and surely there are guys (like Phil) who are not ready, willing and/or able to hedge towards up, so they never get through the initial phase of the first cycle.
[edited out]
If 2025 ends up being a bear, doesn't that confirm that the cycle theory is dead? Without any doubts or subjective analysis where exactly a peak should have happened in 2025 based on post halving timeline and stuff like that.
First, 2025 was not a bear. Landing 6% below the opening is hardly a bear.
Second, not following some kind of an exact pattern for cycle theory does not mean that cycle theory has completely lost its influence - even though aspects of the market seem to be continuing to try to figure out how cycle theory fits into current BTC price dynamics.
Third, why is there any need to get caught up into some kind of a model to try to figure out where we are at. From here, the price could go up, down or sideways. My own ideas about the significance of a bull versus a bear means that in a bull the odds for up would have to be greater than the odds for down, and I surely have no meaningful threshold that is much outside of 51/49... so it seems to me that until we transition into a bear market, the odds for up are greater than the odds for down... but yeah, I will even concede that October and November were mostly down, and December was mostly sideways..
and so we seem to be currently within a consolidation range that is between something like $85k and 495k.. so we could have some smaller level breakouts, yet if the beartwats allow the BTC price to get back into the $108k territory, they may well lose their abilities to keep it down... yet we don't have to worry about $108k territory yet, since it is quite a ways between lower $90ks (our current area) and needing to get above $100k (and perhaps stay above there) first.
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