Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

I see that Tom Lee believes Bitcoin is breaking the 4-Year cycle, and he is doubling-down on his $250k price target prediction in 2026.

He has been making BTC predictions since 2017 and has never been right -- not even once.

exactly... if anything he is a contrarian indicator

He is a salesman trying to sell shares of an investment fund.  Nothing more.  That was obvious when it was leaked that Fundstrat was expecting a "major crypto pullback" in early 2026 while at the same time he was pushing the $250K prediction...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

Hey guys please review my ad for silver on ebay.

(note there is BTC in the add)

https://www.ebay.com/itm/168069188285

too dark ?

too religious?

or will it work?

and I know it is a high premium price due to the collection theme.

This is my last major sales item

I will hodl 60 silver dollars and 40 silver half dollars.

I have sold enough for now.

I think it's funny and gives out a nice, positive vibe. Like you're a cool, easygoing, trustworthy guy. I like it.

It doesn't matter that it shows the BTC logo. It's not BTC, it's silver, get rid of it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

https://x.com/btconometrics/article/1874311314514075772

Bitcoin represents an unprecedented monetary asset where future supply points are known with mathematical certainty. This certainty, combined with its network effects and predetermined halving schedule, creates a unique temporal phenomenon:
The exchangeable value of Bitcoin at any moment represents the temporal collapse of all future monetary phases into the present.

We are entering into "Store of Value".

Tweet deleted?

[Gachapin]

I see that Tom Lee believes Bitcoin is breaking the 4-Year cycle, and he is doubling-down on his $250k price target prediction in 2026.

He has been making BTC predictions since 2017 and has never been right -- not even once.

exactly... if anything he is a contrarian indicator

He is a salesman trying to sell shares of an investment fund.  Nothing more.  That was obvious when it was leaked that Fundstrat was expecting a "major crypto pullback" in early 2026 while at the same time he was pushing the $250K prediction...

sure, he has his reasons... I only know, every time he comes on and makes bold predictions the price stalls or falls

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@BullTheoryio
🚨 SENATE BANKING COMMITTEE WILL VOTE ON THE CRYPTO MARKET STRUCTURE BILL ON JANUARY 15.

This bill could change how crypto trades forever.

The CLARITY Act is a market structure bill focused on one thing: stopping manipulation and bringing real transparency to crypto markets.

What does it actually do?

• Bans wash trading and fake volume
• Criminalizes spoofing and front running
• Gives regulators real time tools to monitor market abuse
• Requires proof of reserves and regular audits for U.S. exchanges

WHY THIS ACT IS IMPORTANT?

Now look at what happened on October 10.

That day, the crypto market saw $100 billion+ in real liquidations.
Bitcoin and altcoins collapsed together.

To this day, we don’t know exactly how it started, we don’t know which large entities blew up.

There was no clear report, transparency or accountability.

Since then, market crypto has behaved very weirdly.

Almost every asset class outside crypto has rmade new highs.

But in crypto, every pump gets fully sold, Good news leads to dumps and Bad news leads to even sharper dumps.

This is not normal price action.

This is exactly what the CLARITY Act targets.

If rules for this are in place then large liquidations can’t happen quietly, market abuse becomes traceable and exchanges can’t hide fake volume or risk.

It also changes who participates.

Right now, institutions mostly hold Bitcoin only. They avoid altcoins because the rules are unclear.

If the CLARITY Act passes regulatory risk will drop and institutions will start allocating to altcoins as well which could bring a massive liquidity.

That’s why January 15 matters.
https://x.com/bulltheoryio/status/2009262134409191828

[BTCETFInvestor]

@BullTheoryio
🚨 SENATE BANKING COMMITTEE WILL VOTE ON THE CRYPTO MARKET STRUCTURE BILL ON JANUARY 15.

This bill could change how crypto trades forever.

The CLARITY Act is a market structure bill focused on one thing: stopping manipulation and bringing real transparency to crypto markets.

What does it actually do?

• Bans wash trading and fake volume
• Criminalizes spoofing and front running
• Gives regulators real time tools to monitor market abuse
• Requires proof of reserves and regular audits for U.S. exchanges

WHY THIS ACT IS IMPORTANT?

Now look at what happened on October 10.

That day, the crypto market saw $100 billion+ in real liquidations.
Bitcoin and altcoins collapsed together.

To this day, we don’t know exactly how it started, we don’t know which large entities blew up.

There was no clear report, transparency or accountability.

Since then, market crypto has behaved very weirdly.

Almost every asset class outside crypto has rmade new highs.

But in crypto, every pump gets fully sold, Good news leads to dumps and Bad news leads to even sharper dumps.

This is not normal price action.

This is exactly what the CLARITY Act targets.

If rules for this are in place then large liquidations can’t happen quietly, market abuse becomes traceable and exchanges can’t hide fake volume or risk.

It also changes who participates.

Right now, institutions mostly hold Bitcoin only. They avoid altcoins because the rules are unclear.

If the CLARITY Act passes regulatory risk will drop and institutions will start allocating to altcoins as well which could bring a massive liquidity.

That’s why January 15 matters.
https://x.com/bulltheoryio/status/2009262134409191828

Passing H.R. 3633 (a.k.a. the CLARITY Act) is very bullish for Bitcoin as it legitimizes the asset class and opens the door to major amounts of institutional capital. Let's hope the bill passes and moves forward to the full Senate floor, then potentially merges with related provisions from the Agriculture Committee before heading to the House and finally to President Trump’s desk.


 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[goldkingcoiner]

[edited out]

I know that Russia has done years of tundra core samples in siberia and that russia does zip to stop global warming.
I see that the USA is now doing zip to stop global warming.

So long term (2057 when I am a hundred) Greenland will be a lot warmer than it is now.
SO USA dominating the western hemisphere and Russia 🇷🇺 and China 🇨🇳 carving up asia part of Europe seems like where we are going.

Is global warming in the room with us now?

I can appreciate efforts to keep pollution down and even figuring out possible negative effects of environmental contaminants, like plastics and even concerns about various ways that nature is interfered with by cutting down trees and leveling mountains and maybe even questioning various ways that minerals and/or natural resources are extracted - yet so many times, the global warming conversations are distracting and misleading because the evidence seems to be very weak, at best..

Skepticism toward policy and narratives is rational but dismissing the underlying science entirely is not.

Global warming evidence is strong, Jay. It's just that the discourse around it is often misleading.

@BullTheoryio
🚨 SENATE BANKING COMMITTEE WILL VOTE ON THE CRYPTO MARKET STRUCTURE BILL ON JANUARY 15.

This bill could change how crypto trades forever.

The CLARITY Act is a market structure bill focused on one thing: stopping manipulation and bringing real transparency to crypto markets.

What does it actually do?

• Bans wash trading and fake volume
• Criminalizes spoofing and front running
• Gives regulators real time tools to monitor market abuse
• Requires proof of reserves and regular audits for U.S. exchanges

WHY THIS ACT IS IMPORTANT?

Now look at what happened on October 10.

That day, the crypto market saw $100 billion+ in real liquidations.
Bitcoin and altcoins collapsed together.

To this day, we don’t know exactly how it started, we don’t know which large entities blew up.

There was no clear report, transparency or accountability.

Since then, market crypto has behaved very weirdly.

Almost every asset class outside crypto has rmade new highs.

But in crypto, every pump gets fully sold, Good news leads to dumps and Bad news leads to even sharper dumps.

This is not normal price action.

This is exactly what the CLARITY Act targets.

If rules for this are in place then large liquidations can’t happen quietly, market abuse becomes traceable and exchanges can’t hide fake volume or risk.

It also changes who participates.

Right now, institutions mostly hold Bitcoin only. They avoid altcoins because the rules are unclear.

If the CLARITY Act passes regulatory risk will drop and institutions will start allocating to altcoins as well which could bring a massive liquidity.

That’s why January 15 matters.
https://x.com/bulltheoryio/status/2009262134409191828

This deserves it's own thread.

[Lucius]

I see that Tom Lee believes Bitcoin is breaking the 4-Year cycle, and he is doubling-down on his $250k price target prediction in 2026.

He has been making BTC predictions since 2017 and has never been right -- not even once.

When someone mentions this man in the context of any speculation related to Bitcoin, it is clear that they are not a serious investor. Well, that man once speculated that Bitcoin would be banned in the US because they banned e-cigarettes or something like that

[philipma1957]

Hey guys please review my ad for silver on ebay.

(note there is BTC in the add)

https://www.ebay.com/itm/168069188285

too dark ?

too religious?

or will it work?

and I know it is a high premium price due to the collection theme.

This is my last major sales item

I will hodl 60 silver dollars and 40 silver half dollars.

I have sold enough for now.

I think it's funny and gives out a nice, positive vibe. Like you're a cool, easygoing, trustworthy guy. I like it.

It doesn't matter that it shows the BTC logo. It's not BTC, it's silver, get rid of it.

Yeah I sold a lot last month and this month. The add is getting a lot of views. hoping it goes by Monday.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

I see that Tom Lee believes Bitcoin is breaking the 4-Year cycle, and he is doubling-down on his $250k price target prediction in 2026.

He has been making BTC predictions since 2017 and has never been right -- not even once.

 He might have been correct about Bitcoin cannibalizing demand for gold (to a point) but as far as price predictions for BTC:

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ESG]

I see that Tom Lee believes Bitcoin is breaking the 4-Year cycle, and he is doubling-down on his $250k price target prediction in 2026.

He has been making BTC predictions since 2017 and has never been right -- not even once.

 He might have been correct about Bitcoin cannibalizing demand for gold (to a point) but as far as price predictions for BTC:

 A while ago, there was a study, which took results from fundamental investor hedgers,
who bought based on fundamentals, and at the same time,
 they put a chimpanzee blindfolded who threw darts at securities to be bought
 and measured the results, that both the random darts thrown by the ximpanzee
 at the stocks they bought, and the data from fundamental investors,
 and realized that the results had very little difference.

" In 1973, Burton Malkiel — a professor at Princeton — released a book with a bold thesis: if a monkey threw darts at a list of stocks, he could build an investment portfolio as efficient as that of a Wall Street expert. Initially, this thesis seemed too provocative for the traditional model of active management, which believes it is possible to "beat the market" through sophisticated strategies.

This idea, initially controversial, was tested between 1988 and 2002 by the Wall Street Journal. In 142 disputes between random wallets (the so-called "monkeys with darts") and wallets selected by experts, random wallets won 55 times. That is, on almost half of the occasions, chance prevailed over human intelligence. "

Random Walk Down Wall Street

Book by Burton Malkiel

 A Random Walk Down Wall Street, written by Burton Gordon Malkiel, a Princeton University economist, is a book on the subject of stock markets which popularized the random walk hypothesis. Malkiel argues that asset prices typically exhibit signs of a random walk, and thus one cannot consistently outperform market averages. The book is frequently cited by those in favor of the efficient-market hypothesis. After the twelfth edition, over 1.5 million copies had been sold, with the thirteenth edition being released in 2023 to coincide with the fiftieth anniversary of the original release. A practical popularization is The Random Walk Guide to Investing: Ten Rules for Financial Success ...

#plus,
Orlando, the cat>>
 https://prosperitythinkers.com/three-monkeys-and-cat-pick-stocks/

" 
As The Guardian describes, “While the professionals used their decades of investment knowledge and traditional stock-picking methods, the cat selected stocks by throwing his favorite toy mouse on a grid of numbers allocated to different companies.”
"

[philipma1957]

I see that Tom Lee believes Bitcoin is breaking the 4-Year cycle, and he is doubling-down on his $250k price target prediction in 2026.

He has been making BTC predictions since 2017 and has never been right -- not even once.

 He might have been correct about Bitcoin cannibalizing demand for gold (to a point) but as far as price predictions for BTC:

 A while ago, there was a study, which took results from fundamental investor hedgers,
who bought based on fundamentals, and at the same time,
 they put a chimpanzee blindfolded who threw darts at securities to be bought
 and measured the results, that both the random darts thrown by the ximpanzee
 at the stocks they bought, and the data from fundamental investors,
 and realized that the results had very little difference.

" In 1973, Burton Malkiel — a professor at Princeton — released a book with a bold thesis: if a monkey threw darts at a list of stocks, he could build an investment portfolio as efficient as that of a Wall Street expert. Initially, this thesis seemed too provocative for the traditional model of active management, which believes it is possible to "beat the market" through sophisticated strategies.

This idea, initially controversial, was tested between 1988 and 2002 by the Wall Street Journal. In 142 disputes between random wallets (the so-called "monkeys with darts") and wallets selected by experts, random wallets won 55 times. That is, on almost half of the occasions, chance prevailed over human intelligence. "

Random Walk Down Wall Street

Book by Burton Malkiel

 A Random Walk Down Wall Street, written by Burton Gordon Malkiel, a Princeton University economist, is a book on the subject of stock markets which popularized the random walk hypothesis. Malkiel argues that asset prices typically exhibit signs of a random walk, and thus one cannot consistently outperform market averages. The book is frequently cited by those in favor of the efficient-market hypothesis. After the twelfth edition, over 1.5 million copies had been sold, with the thirteenth edition being released in 2023 to coincide with the fiftieth anniversary of the original release. A practical popularization is The Random Walk Guide to Investing: Ten Rules for Financial Success ...

#plus,
Orlando, the cat>>
 https://prosperitythinkers.com/three-monkeys-and-cat-pick-stocks/

"  
As The Guardian describes, “While the professionals used their decades of investment knowledge and traditional stock-picking methods, the cat selected stocks by throwing his favorite toy mouse on a grid of numbers allocated to different companies.”
"

so 55 wins and 87 losses is no where near almost half in my book

68 and 74 or 69 and 73 sure

not 55 and 87.


BTW if you believe market go up you should be better off buying and holding an index mirror fund.

I remember th dow at 800 and change my childhood home was worth 50k

the market is 49k and change my childhood home is 1.2mill

both are 60x

but a lot of maintenance to keep the home going

a lot of property tax to keep the home going

so over 60 years and 60x your money

means  picking and winning at random is no big deal.  because you are betting on a number go up product.

btc is 17 years old put every date in a box hmm 17x365=6,205  dates

at least 5,500 are under 80k

so picking when to get in at random and hodl means you have a 5500/6205=0.886  88.6% chance of a winning day

more likely that number is 5700/6205=0.919  but I do not feel like look at every date since we hit 90k last November 13 2025. (about 425 days ago)

so 5800/6205=0.935  is the likely win percent of a random pick and hold