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btc is 17 years old put every date in a box hmm 17x365=6,205 dates
at least 5,500 are under 80k
so picking when to get in at random and hodl means you have a 5500/6205=0.886 88.6% chance of a winning day
more likely that number is 5700/6205=0.919 but I do not feel like look at every date since we hit 90k last November 13 2025. (about 425 days ago)
so 5800/6205=0.935 is the likely win percent of a random pick and hold
You are not making your point clearly, since it likely hardly matters what date you get into bitcoin if you have an investment timeline that is greater than 10 years.
Of course, if your investment timeline is shorter, such as 4-10 years based on age and/or health considerations, then your level of profits might be more important - even though it is tough to try to figure out when short-term BTC prices might go up, down or sideways.
I frequently consider that if you are buying over a long period, such as 4-10 years, then each new buy that you make has a 4-10 year holding timeline.. so it seems better to establish your position earlier rather than later, especially if you want to be able transition from buying into selling (or being eligible for selling).
Newer guys are going to have more and more coins that are less than 4 years old, and the longer guys have had been in bitcoin, then the more likely they will have coins graduating into the 4-10 year time line and then graduating into the greater than 10 year timeline.
If coins are greater than 10 years old then maybe there is likely more importance in how many coins you have rather than figuring out the extent to which they are in profits - even though presumptively we might consider them to be in profits after 10 years, even though it might be difficult to know in advance what level of profits they are likely to get to.
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Phil -
When to get in vs.
What to get in makes all the difference in success of investing! So investing in stocks, it depends on which sector of stocks the random pick (with a thrown dart) is made from. For example, the stock sector pertaining to Real Estate, Energy, Healthcare and Utilities have not been a good investment over the past ten years whereas the stock sector pertaining to Information Technology, Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary (Cyclicals) like Amazon and Tesla have been outstandingly good as investments over the past 10 years.
I seem to recall bitcoin being good over the past 10 years, whether you had been able to front load in earlier times and even if you had been buying more recently - even though the last year has not been that great for bitcoin, yet bitcoin has continued to have short term volatility that can sometimes not play out very well, even if many folks had considered bitcoin's pattern (4 year cycle) as if it were guaranteed - which surely would be a problematic way of considering bitcoin as an investment.
We also cannot go back in history - so to the extent that we might question where to invest or how much to invest, we are considering from today, yet we also might consider in terms of investments that we already hold too, and whether we might feel it justified to reallocate from anything that we already own. Maybe this time of the year, guys review some of their holdings - even though surely many guys might have already been reviewing their holdings prior to the passing of the calendar year, to the extent that investors might have had been considering reallocating.
I see that Tom Lee believes Bitcoin is breaking the 4-Year cycle, and he is doubling-down on his $250k price target prediction in 2026.
He has been making BTC predictions since 2017 and has never been right -- not even once.
No one seems to remember that he also signed up to be the headliner at a BSV conference.
I'm not sure if he went through with it or if he realized he was walking into a big mess before the conference. I don't know. But he was being billed.
I don't like his prediction any more than I would like that squawk box guy doing it. He does it next and we're doomed for sure. 😁
Thing is Bitcoin doesn't give a shit about them either, so this might be their stopped clock scenario.
I think that many of us have to concede that current times remain a bit confusing, and there are a lot of BIG players who seem to be engaging in attacks on bitcoin, yet they are attacking it in such a way while trying to keep it alive at the same time.. like they know it is a golden goose, but at the same time, they want to try to tame the golden goose without accidentally killing it.
Accordingly, the ongoing behaviors (some of them even seeming desperate) of various BIGGER players seems to contribute to ongoing confusion in regards to recent bitcoin price dynamics - and sure, I am not discounting UPpity... even though its becoming more and more difficult to have confidence in my own end of the quarter bet - even though with high levels of uncertainty and confusion (even if a stupid-ass thing like the "clarity act" is passed), can still end up resulting in a dragging out of price movements (meaning more ongoing flat), yet we also know that with any consolidation period, explosive periods will sometimes come into play, too... They can explode in either direction, even though so long as we have not yet been knocked of the pre-existing bull market, the odds for up seems slightly greater than the odds for down - yet even having odds in favor of one side does not assure that the opposite not end up happening.
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PS The worse his individual predictions are behaving, the more outrageous are his long term projections.
The numbers he is throwing around now are even less likely to occur than M. Saylor's as far as non-bitcoin entities are concerned, imho.
Of course, Tom Lee's going fairly heavily into ethereum did not help his image - at least from a bitcoiner's perspective.
Well I certainly do not know the future is I. If I did I would have 1000+ BTC and I am under 2 btc.
Part of your problem is that you are so outrageous.
Even though you claim to needing such a heavy income, you already have some income coming from other sources (pension-like products and likely social security)..
So right now if you had anywhere between 14 BTC and 50 BTC, you would be set for life...
So these days, guys do not really need very many BTC as compared with how many they might have had needed in years gone by
Right now, 14.0031 BTC is sufficient to sustain an income of $80k per year forever and ever and ever (including a 7% per year raise in the dollar amount).
Alternatively,
Right now, 50 BTC would provide for sustainable income of $285,714 per year income forever and ever and ever (including a 7% per year raise in the dollar amount).
Of course, having achieved the second quantity of 50 bitcoin would be better than having the first quantity of 14.0031 BTC, yet it seems to me that even to be able to achieve a passive income of $80k per year would be quite a great place to be even if it were to be the sole income source that a person has.
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well yeah if you go with the slot theory that BTC is mirroring 1992-2002 gold.
gold did 200-400 in that long slot
a good thing about slot theory means the 4 year cycle died.
Even if there may be some powers that be that would like to manipulate bitcoin into some kind of stability, yet I am not even sure if the manipulating powers that be are even wishing for such a 10-ish year slot, even if they might be able to accomplish such, which is a BIG IF.
but in 2022 it took a long time to really drop say April 1 42k off Nov of 2021 67k
which is kind of like 126k in oct to 90k now
You are all over the place with trying to grasp some data that fits some kind of a narrative that you would like to highlight.. so suggesting that the drop is not yet over.. which seems more like your wishing rather than objectively analyzing what might be plausible bitcoin price directions from here.
You don't need any further context for your suggestion that there might be more drop from here?
What is going to be the catalyst for the further drop this time?
Remember around April 2022 that our first shoe to drop was that Terra Luna issue - but then there was a lot of cascading fall out that came from losing confidence and also underlying problems in which a lot of the leverage was not able to tolerate that level of downity - since some of them were paying yields of up to 20% on bitcoin that were rehypothicated several times - yet one by one they were falling.. which all started from Terra Luna, yet could have had started the cascading in some other way or even could have had been delayed, which makes it difficult ot conjecture about alternative theories of events when historically we ONLY have one set of events, even if we don't necessarily completely know what were all of the components that ended up causing it to happen the way that it ended up happening.
the tank or real drop was after April 1 back in 2022 42k to 29k on may 12.
which means maybe we really tank around April this year.
Especially if you can pay taxes in the USA with no cap gain BTC
Of course, we don't necessarily need to know the catalyst in advance, even if there still would likely need to be some kind of a catalyst that you imagine to potentially be present in order to cause further dropping, which from my point of view comes off as a mere stab-in-the-dark guess.
a good thing about slot theory means the 4 year cycle died.
the tank or real drop was after April 1 back in 2022 42k to 29k on may 12.
which means maybe we really tank around April this year.
I don't get it? Do you mean to say you don't agree that the cycle theory is dead? If you do then we should not tank around April.
it means I do not know what will happen and that I am in doubt as to uppity sideways or down for 2026.
But I still stack all my mining coins about 0.0011 a day or 0.0330 a month
I also but a bit when I sell silver.
If I push hard I could leave the 1+ btc rank and grow to the 2 btc rank by Jan 2027
Your not knowing is probably one of the more accurate statements that you made in recent times, even though you seem to get quite a bit of pleasure in throwing out random thoughts as if those random stream of consciousness thoughts were to have some kind of plausibility behind them.
It seems that if BTC prices were to go down, then you would be able to stack more cornz for the same quantity of dollars - even though it seems quite a bit of a large question regarding any specifics about how many bitcoin that you might be able to stack in 2026, since surely there is a range - base case, best case and worse case.
Maybe it is big so what to try talk about the whole range and/or to emphasize the best case scenario when it might not even have high odds as compared with the base case scenario.
Poll
