We are not in 2014 anymore. To 250k within a year or within 1.5 years from now on is more realistic.
If you think we can do it in few months... well one can dream
I agree in part with this statement that at this point there are many factors that have influence over the reflection of the amount of value rushing into Bitcoin in the price. The two largest ones, in my opinion, are:
- after so many exponential periods of gain in the past, moving the price that much again requires an amount of value that's difficult to fathom. We are now talking what is reflected in the current paradigm as
trillions of dollars. In the past, a 2x could be achieved with the injection of a few million dollars in value. Currently, looking at a combined order book, $5 million will barely move the price in either direction.
- the entry of institutional money, traders and manipulation is probably still underestimated. We are talking very smart people who have been playing this game with dozens of assets for decades and decades and arguably throughout much of recent history. Derivatives are sold to the common man (rubes) as a good way to invest in an "underlying asset". But for the machine, they are the levers of control.
With those two things alone, I think it is reasonable to expect the Bitcoin price rise to continue to make great gains in nominal terms, but much more modest gains in percentage terms.____________ here, I go into cAPSLOCK typical hyper bullish mode, so stop reading if you've had enough of that over the years.___________
Thing is, there is still one aspect of Bitcoin's price discovery that I still do not think we have fully realized.
It is arguable we are still in the early phases of adoption. A very small number of people hold significant portions of their stored wealth in Bitcoin. And this is including the price-rise dampening paper bitcoin as well. I think we are still somewhere between 5 and 10 percent of the population.
And of those people who have put value into BTC the majority of them are doing it as a sort of speculative bet and allocating a very small amount of value.
There simply is no longer a viable argument against the idea that adoption is inevitable.
We are in the beginning of that right now, and the balance has tipped beyond the ability for it to be tipped back at this point. Only in an extreme situation would that happen, and I think that would be something along the lines of Bitcoin failing technically.
So...
At the beginning of this new year, (humans like to assign some significance to the beginning and the end of an arbitrary time frame) we may be seeing an upswing that begins to ease the thoughts that we are in yet another giant multi-year bear.
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Tiny penetration (hush your jokes!) there is still so much money on the table.
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Institutional adoption. The ETFs, the corporate involvement, the nation state reserves cranking up. Yes, this is a two-edged sword, but the banks are bending the knee.
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FOMO there just aren't enough people understanding it and even just getting caught up in the excitement of watching their personal value rise as they've allocated a small amount. There's so much room for people to want to jump on board.
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Macroeconomic tailwinds - we have never been in a situation in our lifetimes where the US dollar and its various other fiat children have been in so much risk. And I believe Bitcoin benefits in the case the dollar collapses or in the case the current powers that be can revive it one more time. There is a lot of chaos in this particular point, but there's also a lot of favorable energy.
Everyone is tired of the word "supercycle" right now.
Perfect!
This forum is full of innovators and early adopters. I suggest we are still in the relatively early stages of the early majority.
Secondly, I suggest that Bitcoin's price against all assets will follow the typical upswing of the adoption S curve.
Or we could just drift up slower and slower, but always up. I suppose that could happen, too.
Look, the sparkle fairy is bringing you something to catch your melting face in just in case.
Poll
