Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Lucius]

ICE arrests people because of their accent, and to make matters worse, the arresting man has an accent that could also land him in jail when he takes off his uniform. This kind of tyranny is hard to see on the streets of some countries where human rights don't really exist - but those who voted for their peacemaker must be very proud.

In addition, additional customs duties of 10% are being introduced for all European countries that have sent military personnel to Greenland - except Slovenia (thanks Melania ).

Well he is trying to leverage the Ukraine for Greenland.

by getting stupid European leaders to waste troops in Greenland and not put them in the Ukraine.

Putin smiles with glee at the plan as the Ukraine will likely fall due to this ploy.

Well the USA is becoming much like the Amazon tv show " the Boys "

in that the so called "good guys" super heroes  (super powers) are fucking scum.

As a kid growing up in NYC I read a lot of books on WWII I wondered if it could repeat itself.

Well yeah it looks like it will repeat itself. 

Some good things that may save us.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/15/politics/video/ebof-harry-enten-rfkjr-trump-diet


RFK Jr.: Trump has the most 'unhinged' eating habits; 'I don't know how he's alive'

McDonalds may be the greatest hope in the world for us all.

With the medical care he has, he could live another 20-30 years even if he lived only on junk food. Just imagine if something happened to him, everyone would be to blame except himself - so let him live long as a living monument to human stupidity.

What a man like him can cause is a civil war in the US, because even his own people have started to turn against him, and they say that American generals shy away from any military option when it comes to attacking the EU. There is a saying in my area that goes something like "he who digs a pit for others falls into it himself."

Almost half of the voters in the US did not vote for this craziness that is happening right now, and if the army really takes to the streets, you will have Iran in a much bloodier way, considering that you are the most armed nation in the world.

[cAPSLOCK]

McDonalds may be the greatest hope in the world for us all.

Hush with this talk!  If bitcoin hears anything like that www might as well be donning our old uniforms today!

(That was a funny thing though)

[BTCETFInvestor]

ICE arrests people because of their accent, and to make matters worse, the arresting man has an accent that could also land him in jail when he takes off his uniform. This kind of tyranny is hard to see on the streets of some countries where human rights don't really exist - but those who voted for their peacemaker must be very proud.

In addition, additional customs duties of 10% are being introduced for all European countries that have sent military personnel to Greenland - except Slovenia (thanks Melania ).

Well he is trying to leverage the Ukraine for Greenland.

by getting stupid European leaders to waste troops in Greenland and not put them in the Ukraine.

Putin smiles with glee at the plan as the Ukraine will likely fall due to this ploy.

Well the USA is becoming much like the Amazon tv show " the Boys "

in that the so called "good guys" super heroes  (super powers) are fucking scum.

As a kid growing up in NYC I read a lot of books on WWII I wondered if it could repeat itself.

Well yeah it looks like it will repeat itself.  

Some good things that may save us.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/15/politics/video/ebof-harry-enten-rfkjr-trump-diet


RFK Jr.: Trump has the most 'unhinged' eating habits; 'I don't know how he's alive'

McDonalds may be the greatest hope in the world for us all.

Phil - A U.S. citizen with all it offers and a retired Navy vet talking like that!    You get your news from those far leftwing liberal woke sites?  

I you admired stupid brain-dead Sleepy Joe Biden and scumbag Hussein Obama, both of which gave U.S. taxpayer money to terrorist countries like Iran! Real smart!!! 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

@ESG  - I wish for all of us here good health, prosperity and friendship and for the price of Bitcoin to go up like a rocket ship to the moon and its market cap to steadily gain and reach gold's market cap before we die...  

I am an old bloke.
But I have recently put some effort into physical activity.
Shredded 10 kg (if you are familiar with this unit) in the last few months.
Doing some gym work, using various apps to gamify that.
Been quite successful, I guess, even if I am so far from El duderino_ standards.
Sleeping more.
Lifting more.
Stacking more.

You lost it and I found it!

Been all downhill since making love to that telephone pole.

[BTCETFInvestor]

ICE arrests people because of their accent, and to make matters worse, the arresting man has an accent that could also land him in jail when he takes off his uniform. This kind of tyranny is hard to see on the streets of some countries where human rights don't really exist - but those who voted for their peacemaker must be very proud.

In addition, additional customs duties of 10% are being introduced for all European countries that have sent military personnel to Greenland - except Slovenia (thanks Melania ).

Well he is trying to leverage the Ukraine for Greenland.

by getting stupid European leaders to waste troops in Greenland and not put them in the Ukraine.

Putin smiles with glee at the plan as the Ukraine will likely fall due to this ploy.

Well the USA is becoming much like the Amazon tv show " the Boys "

in that the so called "good guys" super heroes  (super powers) are fucking scum.

As a kid growing up in NYC I read a lot of books on WWII I wondered if it could repeat itself.

Well yeah it looks like it will repeat itself. 

Some good things that may save us.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/15/politics/video/ebof-harry-enten-rfkjr-trump-diet


RFK Jr.: Trump has the most 'unhinged' eating habits; 'I don't know how he's alive'

McDonalds may be the greatest hope in the world for us all.

With the medical care he has, he could live another 20-30 years even if he lived only on junk food. Just imagine if something happened to him, everyone would be to blame except himself - so let him live long as a living monument to human stupidity.

What a man like him can cause is a civil war in the US, because even his own people have started to turn against him, and they say that American generals shy away from any military option when it comes to attacking the EU. There is a saying in my area that goes something like "he who digs a pit for others falls into it himself."

Almost half of the voters in the US did not vote for this craziness that is happening right now, and if the army really takes to the streets, you will have Iran in a much bloodier way, considering that you are the most armed nation in the world.

That's just plain asinine! Get real...

[JimboToronto]

either a bot or a self-aggrandizing name-calling and bold-typing nosy simpleton...make a pick.

You forgot childish.

[BTCETFInvestor]

either a bot or a self-aggrandizing name-calling and bold-typing nosy simpleton...make a pick.

You forgot childish.

Spoken like a typical Maple Dumb!

[OgNasty]

McDonalds may be the greatest hope in the world for us all.

I completely agree.

*The author is long MCD.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

yeah that 0.0105 is right here along with 0.0105 for me
https://mempool.space/address/3Mw9mvjTjWtpxhmctdLa5Awj5gGUbSChKV

I realized if I ever make it to 105 years old  and had to give away 0.0105 btc I had better have at least that much for myself. thus I match it for myself.

It is a lot of potential money to be promising, and if you are putting plans in place to at least to maintain that amount of value through such time (including an equal value for yourself), then you likely have to budget it out and consider a variety of scenarios - including having other wealth and/or other BTC to live upon (to pace yourself).

So for example, if you were to currently ONLY have 1.2 BTC.. yet you were able to figure out that you were going to have right around 2 BTC or more than 2 BTC by the end of 2026, then you could project out your numbers and to figure that you gotta make the amount that you have last until 2061, then you might have limits on yourself, and they probably would not be straight line limits.. but they could be structured to make sure that you never go below certain amounts of BTC at certain points in time..

I already projected out some of the possible details for you that a 10% withdrawal rate would still work for a guy who were to have 2 BTC or more by the end of 2026, and you would still have 0.06112729 BTC remaining by the beginning of 2061..  So your main deal would be to reach the 2 BTC by 2026 or to reduce your authorized withdrawal rate, and then do not reduce that stash (or that portion of your stash) by no more than 10% per year (or I did it with no more than a 5% reduction every 6 months) from 2027 until 2061.

You can look at my projected numbers here (5% reduction every 6 months / 10% annually):

Date       Minimum BTC stash size
5/31/25   1.00000000
11/29/25   1.20000000
5/31/26   1.50000000
11/29/26   2.00000000  (starting amount in late 2026)
5/31/27   1.90000000
11/30/27   1.80500000
5/30/28   1.71475000
11/29/28   1.62901250
5/30/29   1.54756188
11/29/29   1.47018378
5/31/30   1.39667459
11/29/30   1.32684086
5/31/31   1.26049882
11/29/31   1.19747388
5/30/32   1.13760018
11/29/32   1.08072018
5/30/33   1.02668417
11/29/33   0.97534996
5/30/34   0.92658246
11/29/34   0.88025334
5/31/35   0.83624067
11/29/35   0.79442864
5/30/36   0.75470721
11/28/36   0.71697184
5/30/37   0.68112325
11/29/37   0.64706709
5/30/38   0.61471374
11/29/38   0.58397805
5/30/39   0.55477915
11/29/39   0.52704019
5/30/40   0.50068818
11/28/40   0.47565377
5/30/41   0.45187108
11/28/41   0.42927753
5/30/42   0.40781365
11/29/42   0.38742297
5/30/43   0.36805182
11/29/43   0.34964923
5/29/44   0.33216677
11/28/44   0.31555843
5/30/45   0.29978051
11/28/45   0.28479148
5/30/46   0.27055191
11/28/46   0.25702431
5/30/47   0.24417310
11/29/47   0.23196444
5/29/48   0.22036622
11/28/48   0.20934791
5/29/49   0.19888051
11/28/49   0.18893649
5/30/50   0.17948966
11/28/50   0.17051518
5/30/51   0.16198942
11/28/51   0.15388995
5/29/52   0.14619545
11/28/52   0.13888568
5/29/53   0.13194140
11/28/53   0.12534433
5/29/54   0.11907711
11/28/54   0.11312325
5/30/55   0.10746709
11/28/55   0.10209374
5/29/56   0.09698905
11/27/56   0.09213960
5/29/57   0.08753262
11/28/57   0.08315599
5/29/58   0.07899819
11/28/58   0.07504828
5/29/59   0.07129586
11/28/59   0.06773107
5/29/60   0.06434452
11/27/60   0.06112729

Part of my point in responding to this is that there are ways that you can still reach an amount of BTC that is sufficiently enough and take the worse case scenario that you are not going to accumulate anymore BTC.. so then you are stuck with that amount of BTC, and therefore to stay disciplined in your withdrawal to pace yourself in very powerful ways without fucking around and getting tempted by trading what you have.

So sure.. at some point , you might end up with health problems or dying with more BTC value than you expected to have at the point that you keel over dead.

Based on what I have already seen of your seeming personality, even if you live to 105, I have trouble believing that you would have enough discipline to maintain enough BTC stash through the whole period between now and 2061 in order to make sure that you do not go below the amount of BTC necessary to pay off your promise in the event that you were able to live to 105 in early 2061.  

Call me a doubting Thomas, even though I have specifically outlined a route that you should be able to potentially follow in order to accomplish such objective to have at least 0.0105 BTC (and even at least 0.021 BTC by 2061).  Of course, if you have more BTC at various points along the way (than the required minimum) then you have more BTC cushion, even though more cushion is not necessary (as a bare minimum, and we work with what we have), I will assert that a certain level of discipline is needed for any kind of measured (and sustainable) withdrawal plan that goes so far out into the future (35 years into the future).

By the way so many folks, as they get elderly, they may well end up having to drastically reduce their spending.. and even end up outliving their income or making various portfolio management mistakes along the way, when they are not physically or psychologically (functionally) able to make up for those mistakes by earning more income.

[WatChe]

Enjoyed the weekend with family. Grilled fish with Tamarind Sauce at home.

Fish taste best when it's grilled, also its nutritious values are preserved.

 

[cAPSLOCK]

either a bot or a self-aggrandizing name-calling and bold-typing nosy simpleton...make a pick.

You forgot childish.

Spoken like a typical Maple Dumb!

Again, one of the newer folks, gracing our thread, you attack someone who may be one of the most respected posters here, level-headed, even-handed, and wise.

We all have differences of opinion. We all see the world differently.

I see it best when we learn to accept our differences rather than hit each other for them.

Now, you may say, "but he called me childish". And to that, I would just scratch my chin and say, hmm.

I guarantee you, there are people here that think I'm a fool for trying to drag you along, but for some reason I am.

[cAPSLOCK]

Enjoyed the weekend with family. Grilled fish with Tamarind Sauce at home.

Fish taste best when it's grilled, also its nutritious values are preserved.

 

Grilling food over wood, there's nothing like it. And I think I can see little specks of garlic on there too.

I will be right over.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

either a bot or a self-aggrandizing name-calling and bold-typing nosy simpleton...make a pick.

You forgot childish.

Spoken like a typical Maple Dumb!

Again, one of the newer folks, gracing our thread, you attack someone who may be one of the most respected posters here, level-headed, even-handed, and wise.

We all have differences of opinion. We all see the world differently.

I see it best when we learn to accept our differences rather than hit each other for them.

Now, you may say, "but he called me childish". And to that, I would just scratch my chin and say, hmm.

I guarantee you, there are people here that think I'm a fool for trying to drag you along, but for some reason I am.

If someone throws shade, are you suggesting I shouldn't respond in kind?  You may turn the other cheek or just run away. Not me! 

If they stop, I stop. If they throw shade, I will respond with shade. Turnabout fair play! It's fair and should be pretty simple to understand...

[WatChe]

Enjoyed the weekend with family. Grilled fish with Tamarind Sauce at home.

Fish taste best when it's grilled, also its nutritious values are preserved.

 

Grilling food over wood, there's nothing like it. And I think I can see little specks of garlic on there too.

Fried fish always feels heavy to me. I quit fried fish as soon as I tried grilled fish. It not only taste best but is very light also. 

I will be right over.

Sure be my guest.

[philipma1957]

 huge snip

Date       Minimum BTC stash size
5/31/25   1.00000000
11/29/25   1.20000000
5/31/26   1.50000000
11/29/26   2.00000000  (starting amount in late 2026)
5/31/27   1.90000000
11/30/27   1.80500000
5/30/28   1.71475000
11/29/28   1.62901250
5/30/29   1.54756188
11/29/29   1.47018378
5/31/30   1.39667459
11/29/30   1.32684086
5/31/31   1.26049882
11/29/31   1.19747388
5/30/32   1.13760018
11/29/32   1.08072018
5/30/33   1.02668417
11/29/33   0.97534996
5/30/34   0.92658246
11/29/34   0.88025334
5/31/35   0.83624067
11/29/35   0.79442864
5/30/36   0.75470721
11/28/36   0.71697184
5/30/37   0.68112325
11/29/37   0.64706709
5/30/38   0.61471374
11/29/38   0.58397805
5/30/39   0.55477915
11/29/39   0.52704019
5/30/40   0.50068818
11/28/40   0.47565377
5/30/41   0.45187108
11/28/41   0.42927753
5/30/42   0.40781365
11/29/42   0.38742297
5/30/43   0.36805182
11/29/43   0.34964923
5/29/44   0.33216677
11/28/44   0.31555843
5/30/45   0.29978051
11/28/45   0.28479148
5/30/46   0.27055191
11/28/46   0.25702431
5/30/47   0.24417310
11/29/47   0.23196444
5/29/48   0.22036622
11/28/48   0.20934791
5/29/49   0.19888051
11/28/49   0.18893649
5/30/50   0.17948966
11/28/50   0.17051518
5/30/51   0.16198942
11/28/51   0.15388995
5/29/52   0.14619545
11/28/52   0.13888568
5/29/53   0.13194140
11/28/53   0.12534433
5/29/54   0.11907711
11/28/54   0.11312325
5/30/55   0.10746709
11/28/55   0.10209374
5/29/56   0.09698905
11/27/56   0.09213960
5/29/57   0.08753262
11/28/57   0.08315599
5/29/58   0.07899819
11/28/58   0.07504828
5/29/59   0.07129586
11/28/59   0.06773107
5/29/60   0.06434452
11/27/60   0.06112729

 second snip

today is Jan 18. 2026 btc is over 1.2 under 1.4


I will come back to this idea later.

I am on schedule to get to 2.0 btc sometime late 2026

[Hueristic]

If someone throws shade, are you suggesting I shouldn't respond in kind?  

If they stop, I stop. If they throw shade, I will respond with shade. Turnabout fair play! It's fair and should be pretty simple to understand...

Eye for an eye creates a blind world, I think we may be there now.

I've told you repeatedly to take a look in the mirror when someone points out your childish behavior, but you seem incapable of that.

Until you start acting like an adult no-one is going to let you sit at the big boys table.

There are various mental stages in life and I think we all know where yours stopped at.

[vapourminer]

either a bot or a self-aggrandizing name-calling and bold-typing nosy simpleton...make a pick.

You forgot childish.

Spoken like a typical Maple Dumb!

Again, one of the newer folks, gracing our thread, you attack someone who may be one of the most respected posters here, level-headed, even-handed, and wise.

We all have differences of opinion. We all see the world differently.

I see it best when we learn to accept our differences rather than hit each other for them.

Now, you may say, "but he called me childish". And to that, I would just scratch my chin and say, hmm.

I guarantee you, there are people here that think I'm a fool for trying to drag you along, but for some reason I am.

i have this image in my head of you dragging this rusty, broken, foul smelling tin can shaped bot behind you it down the road as it contentiously rattles along, making the most annoying sounds imaginable. the worn, barely legible label says "BTCETFInvestor". it looks like no one ever utilized it. lots of what look like scuff marks on it from people kicking it.

[Biodom]

[edited out]

yeah that 0.0105 is right here along with 0.0105 for me
https://mempool.space/address/3Mw9mvjTjWtpxhmctdLa5Awj5gGUbSChKV

I realized if I ever make it to 105 years old  and had to give away 0.0105 btc I had better have at least that much for myself. thus I match it for myself.

It is a lot of potential money to be promising, and if you are putting plans in place to at least to maintain that amount of value through such time (including an equal value for yourself), then you likely have to budget it out and consider a variety of scenarios - including having other wealth and/or other BTC to live upon (to pace yourself).

So for example, if you were to currently ONLY have 1.2 BTC.. yet you were able to figure out that you were going to have right around 2 BTC or more than 2 BTC by the end of 2026, then you could project out your numbers and to figure that you gotta make the amount that you have last until 2061, then you might have limits on yourself, and they probably would not be straight line limits.. but they could be structured to make sure that you never go below certain amounts of BTC at certain points in time..

I already projected out some of the possible details for you that a 10% withdrawal rate would still work for a guy who were to have 2 BTC or more by the end of 2026, and you would still have 0.06112729 BTC remaining by the beginning of 2061..  So your main deal would be to reach the 2 BTC by 2026 or to reduce your authorized withdrawal rate, and then do not reduce that stash (or that portion of your stash) by no more than 10% per year (or I did it with no more than a 5% reduction every 6 months) from 2027 until 2061.

You can look at my projected numbers here (5% reduction every 6 months / 10% annually):

Date       Minimum BTC stash size
5/31/25   1.00000000
11/29/25   1.20000000
5/31/26   1.50000000
11/29/26   2.00000000  (starting amount in late 2026)
5/31/27   1.90000000
11/30/27   1.80500000
5/30/28   1.71475000
11/29/28   1.62901250
5/30/29   1.54756188
11/29/29   1.47018378
5/31/30   1.39667459
11/29/30   1.32684086
5/31/31   1.26049882
11/29/31   1.19747388
...
<snip of extra dates for brevity>
Part of my point in responding to this is that there are ways that you can still reach an amount of BTC that is sufficiently enough and take the worse case scenario that you are not going to accumulate anymore BTC.. so then you are stuck with that amount of BTC, and therefore to stay disciplined in your withdrawal to pace yourself in very powerful ways without fucking around and getting tempted by trading what you have.

So sure.. at some point , you might end up with health problems or dying with more BTC value than you expected to have at the point that you keel over dead.

Based on what I have already seen of your seeming personality, even if you live to 105, I have trouble believing that you would have enough discipline to maintain enough BTC stash through the whole period between now and 2061 in order to make sure that you do not go below the amount of BTC necessary to pay off your promise in the event that you were able to live to 105 in early 2061.  

Call me a doubting Thomas, even though I have specifically outlined a route that you should be able to potentially follow in order to accomplish such objective to have at least 0.0105 BTC (and even at least 0.021 BTC by 2061).  Of course, if you have more BTC at various points along the way (than the required minimum) then you have more BTC cushion, even though more cushion is not necessary (as a bare minimum, and we work with what we have), I will assert that a certain level of discipline is needed for any kind of measured (and sustainable) withdrawal plan that goes so far out into the future (35 years into the future).

By the way so many folks, as they get elderly, they may well end up having to drastically reduce their spending.. and even end up outliving their income or making various portfolio management mistakes along the way, when they are not physically or psychologically (functionally) able to make up for those mistakes by earning more income.

A nice outlay..the only "problem" is that 5% twice a year with 2 btc at, say, optimistically, 100-200K is "just" 20-40K/year starting in late 2026.
It's not nothing and could be a good addition to soc security or pension, but you can't live just on that (in urban US).

However if you got roughly 1/3 covered with soc sec, 1/3 with pension, 1/3 with this btc decumulation...maybe it can even work (leaving Roth 401k balance for the descendants as a legacy, if you want).
Interesting.