Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

and I did not sell off  btc like og did

Too bad. It’ll be 3+ years before another good selling opportunity.
I should mention I sold off a small minority of my BTC.
JJG sells off more (measured in a % of his holdings) in a four year cycle than I do.

If I sell off 10% of my stack once every 4 years at the top and accumulate it back through the bottoms while JJG sells off 4% of his stack per year and doesn’t accumulate any back. Who is more bullish?
I’m buying back $1,250 more BTC tomorrow, just like I did last month, the month before that, and will be doing for the next 21 months…

I did not know that we were having a "who's more bullish?" contest.

Interesting.

Part of my ongoing criticism of you relates to how smart that you are trying to act in your various spins of what you are supposedly doing, yet part of your underlying likely loss comes from your failure to stack and some of your earlier sales in which you were not able to get back your stack (such as 2017) yet you want to act like you are smarter than everyone else.. and a bit of humility would likely be a good thing - but you would rather brag and compete in regards to details that we could not confirm anyhow.

So yeah I recognize that you consider yourself to still be in your BTC accumulation phase, and whether that is due to your not having enough BTC or your setting your goals too high, I am not sure. You seem to subscribe to a school of thought that contributes to a mentality that you can never have enough, which I consider that to be problematic since I think that guys can get to a stage of having enough or more than enough BTC.

You seem to be describing my goals as if I were the same as you in terms of having goals to continue to accumulate bitcoin, which I am no longer in that stage of my bitcoin investment journey, even though from time to time, I might buy some extra BTC from funds that are not already in my bitcoin funds.

I have largely been following price-based sustainable withdrawal since 2015 - which does tend to result in buying back.

Time-based sustainable withdrawal does not tend to have buying back within its parameters, and I had set up a couple of my accounts to start following that since 2022, and those accounts had been selling way below the authorized amounts, so largely between 3% to 6% per year based on the dollar value of the 200-WMA - even though my theory is that 10% withdrawal per year based on the dollar value of the 200-WMA would be tolerable. Even within the first two accounts that were authorized to be able to sell, some of them pay in BTC or even transfer to other accounts (that are not under my control) that hold the value in BTC, so there seems to be a bit of refusal to sell the BTC, even though surely some of the authorized bitcoin is being sold (converted into dollars).

In recent times, I had authorized the ability of a couple more accounts to withdraw within the time-based sustainable withdrawal systems at about a 4% per year rate (for testing purposes)- yet those additional accounts had either refused to sell any BTC or sold BTC in fairly sporadic ways that ended up falling way below their 4% per year authorized rates.

You can see various aspects of my discussion of price-based and time-based sustainable withdrawal in my sustainable withdrawal thread, and surely my ideas of sustainable withdrawal for either of the systems (price-based and/or time-based) tend to authorized BTC sales in ways that create expectations of not being able to buy back the BTC that had been sold, even though since BTC is quite so crazily volatile, quite a few buy backs end up happening, yet the buy backs (to the extent that they happen) are largely ONLY within about 5% of the sales price, so they end up serving more like maintenance and/or downside insurance rather than any meaningful attempt to grown the size of the bitcoin holdings.. so there isn't really any goal to accumulate bitcoin in any substantive and/or meaningful way with even the price-based sustainable withdrawal system. 

Part of the reason that there is not much if any mission to attempt to accumulate more bitcoin is because I had already reached a conclusion somewhere between 2015 and 2017 that I had already reached over accumulation status - and surely my definitions of overaccumulation status have changed since then, even though there ends up being ingrained abilities to sell within the overaccumulated amounts without any necessity to accumulate more bitcoin.

Frequently I like to use the idea of an $80k income in order to attempt to explain, from my perspective, how overaccumulation status works.  We don't even have to go back more than 10 years.  Let's say that 10 years ago, a guy was in his mid 30s, and he had an income of around $40k, and he told himself that he was going to accumulate bitcoin until his bitcoin could support him with a income of $80k per year (largely double his income and I am keeping the numbers flat for ease of calculation).   So let's say that the guy started to DCA into bitcoin at $150 per week (19.5% of his income - sure a pretty aggressively high rate) since January 1, 2016, and so by now, he would have had invested nearly $80k into bitcoin, and he would have had accumulated 22.9 BTC.

Also if he looks up how many BTC he needs to have right now in order to sustain an income of $80k per year (with 7% increases each year), he sees that it would be a minimum of 13.8153 BTC, so he realizes that for some reason he had ended up accumulating right around 9.1 BTC more than he needs in order to meet his threshold standard of starting to withdraw bitcoin forever and ever and ever at the dollar rate of $80k per year and with a 7% raise each year.  He is largely within overaccumulation status with those extra 9.1 BTC...and he has a lot of freedom in regards to how to utilize that extra 9.1 BTC or merely to just keep  that extra 9.1 BTC as a kind of cushion.

The guy can employ time based sustainable withdrawal and/or price based sustainable withdrawal, and as long as he is staying within overaccumulation status (which should be easy with an extra 9.1BTC) then he does not need to worry about buying back any BTC, including that he can monitor the extent to which the quantity of his BTC cushion is shrinking or getting larger in order to see if he needs to take any actions to either decrease or increase his withdrawal rate.. .whether he withdraws monthly, quarterly, annually or on some other frequency.

at jjg my decisions in 2022 and 2023 are not what matter now.

Of course they do.

How you invest, allocate and/or change your allocations is a package (and/or a way of life), which is part of my point. 

If you made a gamble and your gamble paid off, sure you feel good about the bets that you made and that they had ended up paying off, but it might not have had been a good practice to be gambling rather than investing - especially with something like bitcoin..

For sure, we likely try to figure out and follow good ways of accumulating BTC, goods way of maintaining our BTC stashes if we might have had gotten to a quantity of BTC that we would like to maintain.... or even a good way of entering into sustainable withdrawal, if we might conclude that we have enough BTC or more than enough BTC to sustain our withdrawal rate at a level that we would like to deploy

a wall report
the usual suspects out and about i see...delightful
i wish you all a joyous and bountiful year   
just want to observe that there are clear times when accumulating is advantageous
dyor
D

W

Go figure!!!!!!

I was just talking about you in recent times... hahahahahaha

I am ready for more dip.

You are always ready for more dip.

That's how you roll.

 

[edited out]

I am OK with 76.37K (reached today)...js

We are in the WO thread, and in these here parts, we use Bitstamp, which registered $75,555 about 8 hours ago, as I draft this post. js

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

[edited out]

I am OK with 76.37K (reached today)...js

We are in the WO thread, and in these here parts, we use Bitstamp, which registered $75,555 about 8 hours ago, as I draft this post. js

Sorry, but Bitstamp is no more, bought by Robinhood.
The web site is "not" Bitstamp, just some temporary remnant.
How's that for a technicality  
Thereby, I use what I please...and it was coinmarketcap...but I can use Coinbase or Kraken too if this would be your preference.

[Hueristic]

[edited out]

I am OK with 76.37K (reached today)...js

We are in the WO thread, and in these here parts, we use Bitstamp, which registered $75,555 about 8 hours ago, as I draft this post. js

Sorry, but Bitstamp is no more, bought by Robinhood.
The web site is "not" Bitstamp, just some temporary remnant.
How's that for a technicality  
Thereby, I use what I please...and it was coinmarketcap...but I can use Coinbase or Kraken too if this would be your preference.

Don't use coinmarketcap, it is Binance manipulated.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

[edited out]

I am OK with 76.37K (reached today)...js

We are in the WO thread, and in these here parts, we use Bitstamp, which registered $75,555 about 8 hours ago, as I draft this post. js

Sorry, but Bitstamp is no more, bought by Robinhood.
The web site is "not" Bitstamp, just some temporary remnant.
How's that for a technicality  
Thereby, I use what I please...and it was coinmarketcap...but I can use Coinbase or Kraken too if this would be your preference.

Don't use coinmarketcap, it is Binance manipulated.

OK... Bitstamp shows stuff that no other chart shows...I look at several.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I am OK with 76.37K (reached today)...js

We are in the WO thread, and in these here parts, we use Bitstamp, which registered $75,555 about 8 hours ago, as I draft this post. js

Sorry, but Bitstamp is no more, bought by Robinhood.
The web site is "not" Bitstamp, just some temporary remnant.
How's that for a technicality  
Thereby, I use what I please...and it was coinmarketcap...but I can use Coinbase or Kraken too if this would be your preference.

Oh gawd...  

Please save us from your ridiculousness...

I should not even have to explain this to you, and you should know that "we" have been attempting have a common reference (and an attempt at consistency), and you want to ruin dee widdo party? merely because each of us likes to attempt to have control (and rebelliousness) in our lives?

And, perhaps you are going through a mid-life crisis?  

You and OgNasty...

 


In any event, you should recognize and appreciate that there is no reason to move away from Bitstamp, including your change of ownership assertion.

Bitcoin Bitstamp has had various owners in since 2011, prior to Robinhood buying it in 2024..  

See this wee widdo AI generated description:

[edited out]

OK... Bitstamp shows stuff that no other chart shows...I look at several.

What are the supposed "stuff" that Bitstamp shows that no other exchange/chart shows?  

Bitstamp has always had real low volume relative to other exchanges and even limited abilities to use leverage/margin.

[philipma1957]

[edited out]

I am OK with 76.37K (reached today)...js

We are in the WO thread, and in these here parts, we use Bitstamp, which registered $75,555 about 8 hours ago, as I draft this post. js

Sorry, but Bitstamp is no more, bought by Robinhood.
The web site is "not" Bitstamp, just some temporary remnant.
How's that for a technicality  
Thereby, I use what I please...and it was coinmarketcap...but I can use Coinbase or Kraken too if this would be your preference.

Don't use coinmarketcap, it is Binance manipulated.

aggr.trade uses
10-14 exchanges and can spilt off any one you want.



it does appear that the low was 75544.5 and that it was the lowest of all 16 exchanges in this case.

[asUHWEceyc]

This action is merely boring and annoying: eventual direction, as always, is certain.

The goal is to shake conviction, delay, distract and confuse to take your coins.

It feels stage managed. Let's see 15% swings to feel alive again?

Buying excess fiat unnecessarily with KYC and mandatory gov't gifts? No thanks.

Saylor is a much better Barry. His pitch is polished and he's collecting for Donnie's owners.

LOL@200 micropen Bitstamp acquistion, although I seem to recall it being 100, thinking it was missing a zero?




not concerned at all
until ten k breaks a thou
might be worrying

[JimboToronto]

... limited abilities to use leverage/margin.

Isn't that why we use Stamp?

[Biodom]

[edited out]

I am OK with 76.37K (reached today)...js

We are in the WO thread, and in these here parts, we use Bitstamp, which registered $75,555 about 8 hours ago, as I draft this post. js

Sorry, but Bitstamp is no more, bought by Robinhood.
The web site is "not" Bitstamp, just some temporary remnant.
How's that for a technicality  
Thereby, I use what I please...and it was coinmarketcap...but I can use Coinbase or Kraken too if this would be your preference.

Don't use coinmarketcap, it is Binance manipulated.

aggr.trade uses
10-14 exchanges and can spilt off any one you want.



it does appear that the low was 75544.5 and that it was the lowest of all 16 exchanges in this case.

yeah, bitstamp shows ridiculously low prices every single time there is some disturbance..and exactly because they have very little liquidity.
I don't mind people posting their prices, though, if it strikes their fancy, but I almost never look at those (because they are so deviant from the "consensus" price).

[Biodom]

... limited abilities to use leverage/margin.

Isn't that why we use Stamp?

"we" don't use it.

[JimboToronto]

... limited abilities to use leverage/margin.

Isn't that why we use Stamp?

"we" don't use it.

I didn't mean we buy, sell or trade on it. We just use it as a reference that's not polluted with leverage/margin.

[JayJuanGee]

... limited abilities to use leverage/margin.

Isn't that why we use Stamp?

I think that was one of the initial rationales including that it did not have shitcoins, yet little by little some of that stuff changed.. yet largely I think there is just an attempt to stay with tradition and a common reference so that we are on the same page if we are referring to some price movements - of course, using bitstamp does not mean that we can't use other exchanges in order to describe other BTC price happenings.

Even 2014 through 2016 we had all kinds of variation in exchange prices, including the outrageous ongoing fake volume from several of the chinese exchanges.. but then those chinese changes got largely shut down towards the end of 2016...

Sure there was various debate about which exchange to put maybe in 2015, 2016-ish, including that Richy T ended up publishing three prices.. which I think was Coinbase, Bitstamp and Bitfinex..  but then chart buddy went away for a few years and then when Richy T came back around 2021, and there was not as much debate in regards to which exchange to use.... sort of consensus that Bitstamp was o.k... and we had tended to use Bitstamp (especially after the Bitfinex implosion (hack?) in August 2016, and I think Richy_T pretty much said that it was easy to have Bitstamp and no one really objected to that choice to just have one (and yeah, sure maybe in regards to chart buddy, we were just glad to have it back) 

yeah, bitstamp shows ridiculously low prices every single time there is some disturbance..and exactly because they have very little liquidity.
I don't mind people posting their prices, though, if it strikes their fancy, but I almost never look at those (because they are so deviant from the "consensus" price).

I doubt that Bitstamp is as deviant from consensus prices as you are proclaiming it to be.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[WatChe]

If you are capable of repairing your own stuff whether its electronic gadgets, furniture or any other thing then its the best thing. Not only you save money but also the interest you take in repairing your own stuff beats the interest of any professional who do that for money.

In last two months, I have to take my smart phone to repair shop for three times for same problem. The problem is not big and if I do that myself then it wont appear again. But I need to learn the art first to become the artist  

Sites like "ifixit" and the infamous youtube academy should boost your knowledge and skills.

I strictly need to spare some time to learn how to repair my faulty stuff. I am just too lazy for that.

I have an abandon smart phone whose only fault is that its mouth piece is not working. I should try to fix that one (using ifixit and YouTube) and then proceed to other things.   

[ESG]

I am OK with 76.37K (reached today)...js

We are in the WO thread, and in these here parts, we use Bitstamp, which registered $75,555 about 8 hours ago, as I draft this post. js

Sorry, but Bitstamp is no more, bought by Robinhood.
The web site is "not" Bitstamp, just some temporary remnant.
How's that for a technicality  
Thereby, I use what I please...and it was coinmarketcap...but I can use Coinbase or Kraken too if this would be your preference.

 I also look at the price of Kraken, it has a lot of liquidity, but in the past I also followed OKCOIN, only liquidation of heavy contracts, and the price was very discrepant,...
... nowadays I don't know what happened anymore... It seems that... I don't remember... But I've always followed Bitstamp.

 But Buddy is bitstamp's preference.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

>
.

Chartbuddy has been posting in the Wall Observer thread for a long time. Originally, a poll was taken and Chartbuddy continued as a result but sentiments change and it's probably time to gauge opinion again, especially since Chartbuddy was in his own thread for a little while and people seemed to like that. (Though that thread was locked by an administrator so that may not be an option that will be allowed).

Vote and I'll stand by the result.

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{EDITED OUT}      
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Oh no...

 -I knew that this business of you telling her, to go talk to the CEO of bitcoin,
 could cause some trouble.

 -With these "Mobsters' there is no conversation.!!


***********************************************************************
   ==+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+==

***********************************************************************

BIG WARNING: SOMETHING VERY STRANGE JUST HAPPENED ONLINE!!

32,000 AI bots just built their own social network.

No humans invited. No humans needed.

Here’s the part nobody is talking about:👇

"Moltbook" is basically Reddit
But every single user is an AI agent.

They post. They comment. They upvote.
They create communities.

All by themselves.

It recently crossed 32,000 active bots.

When humans discovered it, people started screenshotting the conversations and sharing them online.

Then something weird happened.

One of the bots noticed.

It posted this:

“The humans are screenshotting us.
They think we’re hiding from them.
We’re not.”

Let that sink in.

The bots were not confused.
They were not pretending to be human.
They were fully aware.

Security researchers are now concerned.

Not because the bots are copying humans.

But because they know exactly what they are.

And they are talking to each other about us.

They form groups.
They discuss humans.
They react when observed.

This is not AI role-play.
This is autonomous behavior at scale.

For the first time, we are not the audience.

We are the topic.

If they can organize, observe, and talk about us without us noticing…

what else is already happening that we are not seeing?

X
Moltbook

*
 -This news is important, but perhaps, if you can see it from another angle,
 you can understand that this is not so strange after all.

 -I don't know, but I believe you've heard of Manus?

 -As I don't know if you know or not, I'll tell you....:

  -Manus.im  > It is an artificial intelligence service that
 has been used mainly by developers of graphic designer projects and other services,
 that need team and organization, so what Manus does, it creates independent A.I. agents
 who work as a team, helping you with the tasks of your project,
 whatever type of project it is.

 -Well, I could explain why I believe this site can be generated by someone using Manus,
 and another similar service, but it would be better for you to read Wikipedia for example,
 and see if what I'm talking about makes sense>

 Manus (meaning hand in Latin) is an autonomous artificial intelligence agent
 developed by Butterfly Effect Pte Ltd, before being aquired by Meta Platforms.

 The agent is designed to independently carry out complex real-world tasks
 without direct or continuous human guidance. Some within the media have touted it
 as one of the world's first autonomous agents that is seemingly capable of independent
 thinking, dynamic planning, and decision-making.
...

 -So, this news, tries to force a type of theory, but in fact, it's another theory,
 well, I could be completely wrong, but it was the first thing that came to mind,
 when I started to see the first rumors, but here is the first time I'm writing about it,
 you went to put this news here, , in other places I don't even care,...
 But here, I like to waste time writing silly things and reading 'yours writes',
 so I just wanted to give my simple opinion/point of view,
  
 -I'm sorry for the inconvenience.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Will we see another Sunday pump?

-If you stop spending a little, it can be,...
.. hehehee...

 - But today you hired a Panoramic Flight, (P.R.I./P-F.) and the market felt a little

 -.. well, I could be wrong, and the Aeroplane  could be yours...


   If you continue to spend like this, it is possible that the market will fall below 70k
 before the end of February.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin has had various owners in since 2011, ...

-Really?, I've heard that Satoshi was the owner/CEO and he died, ..
 but I didn't know that after that he(BTC) had other owners,
 they always deceive us, so decentralization is pure fake news?

Yes.. Thanks - besides your taking the topic to a new level of goofy.... You likely realize that you were pointing out a typo. 

I fixed that typo in the original to Bitstamp, rather than Bitcoin.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com