Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Toxic2040]

[jojo69]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

We don’t hit bottom until JJG & Biodom admit I was right and the four year cycle is real. We aren’t there yet. Maybe if we fall into the 50s? Hard to say.

I don’t take pleasure in the drop in Bitcoin’s value, but it is much easier to cope with when you knew it was going to happen and took precautions.

According to you, You are pretty wonderful.

A few days ago, I mentioned that I might be willing to concede that we have entered into a bear market... to the extent that it matters... and surely we have been dragging below $100k for quite some time, and even recent lower lows in terms of this portion of the correction -  so then a bear market from my consideration would be that if the odds for breakouts to the downside are greater than odds of breakouts to the upside.. and that status might not even last for very long to the extent that you are inclined to rejoice or wait for further lows that also might not end up happening - even if the odds to break down might have improved..

The extent to which you knew what was going to happen in advance is hardly even important - except perhaps to the extent that you were able to profit off of your trade this time.  

Many of us do not trade.. so we might not give to many shits about any luck that some guys might have had gotten from their BTC sales at higher prices.

[edited out]

Yep, pretty clear the four year cycle is still alive. I sold some at 92k and then again at 121k. I thought we would go much higher though so didn’t sell as much as I should have (same happened for me in 2017 and then 2021 - impossible to get the tops though).

I will agree that tops and bottoms are quite difficult to find, which is part of the rationale for my own system.

I will start buying back when we go below 55k and if we don’t get there then whatever, I still have a fat stack.

That is a pretty high expectation.  I am not in a betting mood anymore, even though that one is quite tempting.

I take no joy in this as it works out a lot better for me financially if we moon but @JayJuanGee @Ambatman @Mia Chloe - you boys are going to lose this bet. Close to zero chance we hit a new ATH in Q1 2026.

I would grant you that the odds are probably less than 20% that we might win the bet, and I might even grant you less than 15%, but close to 0% that seems to imply less than 1% odds - which I am just going to wait it out for the next 55-ish days and hope for a miracle... but yeah I might have to start to count my satoshis up in the potential of losing 1,818 per day for the next 55-ish days.  Not easy... but part of the bitcoin price dynamics process.

[OgNasty]

We don’t hit bottom until JJG & Biodom admit I was right and the four year cycle is real. We aren’t there yet. Maybe if we fall into the 50s? Hard to say.

According to you, You are pretty wonderful.

That doesn’t sound like an admission that I was right and you were wrong or an acknowledgement that the four year cycle is alive and well.

Lower we go!

[Paashaas]

Here's an observation that welcomes all the bears and haters to criticize:

This is the 2-week chart. Every time the price has gone below the lower Bollinger Band since 2014, it has marked the bottom (or very near the bottom) before a strong recovery.

We are below it now

X

[Oshosondy]

We don’t hit bottom until JJG & Biodom admit I was right and the four year cycle is real. We aren’t there yet. Maybe if we fall into the 50s? Hard to say.

According to you, You are pretty wonderful.

That doesn’t sound like an admission that I was right and you were wrong or an acknowledgement that the four year cycle is alive and well.

Lower we go!

I can remember that philipma1957 against me on some threads on the speculation board that there will not be a bear market or something like the 4 year cycle is over.

After making investigation about whales, peoplen and ETFs. And what asset managers like Michael Saylor are saying that there will not be a winter season, I was not convinced because there is nothing backing that up yet. Asset managers like Strategy and company like Metaplanet are not yet enough to defend the price is what I noticed. ETFs are not just there at all was what I used to finally make my conclusion.

It is now showing like bitcoin might fall between $59000 and $63500.

Bitcoin fell from $69000 to $15500 in the last cycle, that is 4.45x volatility
If bitcoin still fall to $50000 from $126500, that is still 2.52x volatility

That still means that there is reducing volatility as bitcoin adoption increased.

Bitcoin fell 99x before the first halving
33x before the second halving
5.16x before the third halving
4.45x before the fourth halving
If it is 2.52x now if bitcoin fall to $50000, it is still means the volatility reduced. But I think bitcoin may not go below $57000. I may be wrong, but this is what I analysed.

The bear market was confirmed around $90000 since many weeks ago when bitcoin failed to get to $100000.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

Binance is threatening people on social media with lawsuits for saying that the exchange is insolvent and are demanding retractions. This after BTC withdrawals were halted last night.



They just bought $100,000,000 for their new SAFU fund, so it’s hard to imagine they could be insolvent.

[philipma1957]

We don’t hit bottom until JJG & Biodom admit I was right and the four year cycle is real. We aren’t there yet. Maybe if we fall into the 50s? Hard to say.

According to you, You are pretty wonderful.

That doesn’t sound like an admission that I was right and you were wrong or an acknowledgement that the four year cycle is alive and well.

Lower we go!

I can remember that philipma1957 against me on some threads on the speculation board that there will not be a bear market or something like the 4 year cycle is over.

After making investigation about whales, peoplen and ETFs. And what asset managers like Michael Saylor are saying that there will not be a winter season, I was not convinced because there is nothing backing that up yet. Asset managers like Strategy and company like Metaplanet are not yet enough to defend the price is what I noticed. ETFs are not just there at all was what I used to finally make my conclusion.

It is now showing like bitcoin might fall between $59000 and $63500.

Bitcoin fell from $69000 to $15500 in the last cycle, that is 4.45x volatility
If bitcoin still fall to $50000 from $126500, that is still 2.52x volatility

That still means that there is reducing volatility as bitcoin adoption increased.

Bitcoin fell 99x before the first halving
33x before the second halving
5.16x before the third halving
4.45x before the fourth halving
If it is 2.52x now if bitcoin fall to $50000, it is still means the volatility reduced. But I think bitcoin may not go below $57000. I may be wrong, but this is what I analysed.

The bear market was confirmed around $90000 since many weeks ago when bitcoin failed to get to $100000.

the correction turned bear on or about Jan 13-14 2026

The question is it a teddy bear and or a cub.  Ie 66.6k or more for less than a month.. Or is it a grizzly ie 38k or so and last til 2027.

I would argue that is it is a cub and turns up in the spring from a low of 66.6k

reaching a new ATH before the 2028 1/2ing the are no longer 4 year cycles.


but that if it goes grizzly and as low as 38k lasting deep into 2027 oG is correct.

I oG is correct I will likely leave btc if and we we get over 120k,


My reasoning  is there is no longer a viable reason for the 4 year cycle which means it has become or always was a yo yo for the rich to play with.

[nutildah]

Pack it up bros, its over

[asUHWEceyc]

Does CZ's pardon provide a get out of jail free card for all crimes present and future- or just those committed previously?

Perhaps the pardon deal is a bit more nuanced, something like: "do what we want you to do [with the price] or else..." a la Gary's office visit Wells notice regime?

Seems like that's gotta be it for all of the US coin<->fiat orifices 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

Binance is threatening people on social media with lawsuits for saying that the exchange is insolvent and are demanding retractions. This after BTC withdrawals were halted last night.



They just bought $100,000,000 for their new SAFU fund, so it’s hard to imagine they could be insolvent.

It is expected that someone starts doing this. I mean these kinds of statements are very damaging to the core of their business, and they are exclusively based on speculation. Pausing withdrawals due to high volume of withdrawals happens quite often. If they had some automated way to top up from cold storage that would be very insecure..

[ESG]

Hi Buddy!,

 I know that 'BID' and 'ASK' are prices that are on the order books (bitsatmp in your case)
and will somehow be executed.,

 so the hope that remains, is that you will post new prices on the order book,
higher than the ones you have been posting lately,...

 Well, here is the monthly BTC USD>

[Biodom]

We don’t hit bottom until JJG & Biodom admit I was right and the four year cycle is real. We aren’t there yet. Maybe if we fall into the 50s? Hard to say.

I don’t take pleasure in the drop in Bitcoin’s value, but it is much easier to cope with when you knew it was going to happen and took precautions.

Yep, pretty clear the four year cycle is still alive. I sold some at 92k and then again at 121k. I thought we would go much higher though so didn’t sell as much as I should have (same happened for me in 2017 and then 2021 - impossible to get the tops though).

I will start buying back when we go below 55k and if we don’t get there then whatever, I still have a fat stack.
I take no joy in this as it works out a lot better for me financially if we moon but @JayJuanGee @Ambatman @Mia Chloe - you boys are going to lose this bet. Close to zero chance we hit a new ATH in Q1 2026.

Good luck on that re-buying, really, but I expect that sooner or later bitcoin will bite all "cyclists" in the ass.
Either it would surge and "cyclists" would be left behind with pennies on a dollar or it could plunge after you or someone else buy at 55K.
Why not? No one knows for sure but the time/space crystal, I suppose.

That said, sellers don't really upset me, but simple predictions like" "oh, it is a cycle" will not work at some point.
My life duration is basically a limit for me as I want to know what bitcoin can do.
Is it possible that it is "not too much" and I made a judgement error?
Yes, but I refuse to "sell early" on this one (small size sells don't count).
We shall see.

PS I am not pronouncing bottoms, but my earlier prediction was 71.2K, for which I got a "rusty pipe" from @Heuristic (no biggie, it's all fun and games).
It almost happened already, though. If it goes lower, then maybe bitcoin story is weaker than some of us (including myself) thought.
That said, "Cycles" do not exist any longer. There are other factors at play.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

Does CZ's pardon provide a get out of jail free card for all crimes present and future- or just those committed previously?

Perhaps the pardon deal is a bit more nuanced, something like: "do what we want you to do [with the price] or else..." a la Gary's office visit Wells notice regime?

i always thought the pardons are only for specifically listed stuff to that date and not after.

but laws and the constitutional powers are pretty fluid as far as definitions lately.



need to feed the LHC some seriously MOARS POWERS and crank it up to 11 boys- as we are STILL stuck in this weird timeline.

[BitHodlers]

Good luck on that re-buying, really, but I expect that sooner or later bitcoin will bite all "cyclists" in the ass.
Either it would surge and "cyclists" would be left behind with pennies on a dollar or it could plunge after you or someone else buy at 55K.
Why not? No one knows for sure but the time/space crystal, I suppose.

I know people who made this mistake in previous cycles, liquidated all and they targeted a drop of under $1000. It never came, some regretfully never bought back and others bought back at a major loss in the number of coin in terms of percentage.

HODL is always the best strategy if you are convinced long term. If I had the power to manipulate the market like the institutions, then I would use leverage and trade, but I don't..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com