Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

~snip~
Thanks for the info. I'm asking because while I'm quite certain glycine has health/longevity benefits (because of research) I hear so many people say they actively notice benefits while I notice nothing (not for skin, not for sleep etc). Of course that doesn't mean it doesn't help unnoticed (it likely does).

I take more high confidence supplements but from all of them I only really notice creatine(monohydrate).

You are not the only one, I also used it to improve my sleep, but I did not notice any significant improvements. Maybe it's because we were taking too low a dose or the product wasn't of good enough quality. Don't take my word for it, but I think I read somewhere that even larger doses (around 90 grams) are not dangerous - I took a maximum of 5 grams before bed.

I get quite a cotton mouth from 5g, i wouldn't stand 90g, i guess.
As i researched it, up to 6g are considered as safe. That doesn't mean more than 6g are not safe, to be precise, but this was the amount used in the study for 4 weeks.
But it's an amino acid, so the whole amino balance would get compromised by taking too much of one AA compared to the others and likely deplete some others.
Like too much Lysine is depleting Arginine and vice versa.

I never was a friend of megadosing, i am also sensitive to most substances (may be simply an autistic trait), and so i rarely get into such nutritional off-balance situations.
The only exception is Zinc. 20-30mg daily or i'll get problems. Too much Copper in my food (depletes Zinc) and i also get those problems. I take this daily dose of Zinc since almost 20 years now, my blood levels should skyrocket, but they are only slightly elevated, still within the normal range.

[BTCETFInvestor]

We don’t hit bottom until JJG & Biodom admit I was right and the four year cycle is real. We aren’t there yet. Maybe if we fall into the 50s? Hard to say.

I don’t take pleasure in the drop in Bitcoin’s value, but it is much easier to cope with when you knew it was going to happen and took precautions.

OgN, it's like when buying a house and within a short period of time real estate prices plunge 40% - some people may get scared it will drop more and sell, but if you sell that house you lose money, however if you have faith that real estate will recover and you don't sell the house, chances are good in a few years that same house will more than double what you paid for it. It's the same with Bitcoin and the same with like MAG7 stocks for example.

Nobody that already owns BTC is happy with the huge price decline, but like you said; it is much easier to cope with when you knew it was possibly going to happen. Some people will hodl and some will take this drop as an opportunity to buy or buy more. Give it time - it'll all work out and BTC will reach another ATH that is much greater than the previous one...        

[JayJuanGee]

the collapse continues after yesterdays selloff from the 100ma     currently trading near 72.2kish on moderate volumes with 200ma support at 58kish
dyor
W

-----------

What happened to the real Toxic Moxic?
Sure no problem weave in some data.. .. it can be quite overwhelming to go through such seemingly machine generated extensive numbers without some intermingled human commentary.
... or maybe in recent times you have mind-melded machine and man?
How does it feel?

fuck off @jjg      i post what i want    most of it shit   but i try    and i feel fucking great  

The most important thing is that at least uie pooie are having a lots  of funzies with your machine_Human?_mind-melding posts.

And the other thing is that you railed/refused to disclose how it feels to be be a mind-melded gadget?



     

JJG has oft talked about "fuck you money" but right now, it feels like "fuck me money"

I speak about getting to fuck you status, and I suppose implicitly I am suggesting that bitcoin is both a good way to get to fuck you status and then to be able to have a sustainable withdrawal options that should allow a staying at fuck you status once arrival had been achieved.

Of course, being at fuck you status merely means having the option not to work so long as the amount of BTC accumulated would support the targeted income rate.

I suggest abilities to engage in full withdrawal amounts as long as the BTC price is at least 25% above the 200-WMA., and then the withdrawal rates start to reduce once the spot price goes below 25% above the 200-WMA.

If you have plenty of excess cushion then your ongoing withdraw should not matter so much, and I ONLY suggest to completely eliminate any withdrawals once (or if) the BTC price goes more than 35% bellow the 200-WMA.

Here's my description from the sustainable withdrawal website:

>>>>>>" When the BTC spot price is at least 25% above the 200-week moving average, then at least 1 month's withdrawal will be authorized; however,

A) if the BTC spot price is between 10% and 25% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 90% of the current month's limit.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 10% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 85% of the current month's limit.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 20% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 70% of the current month's limit.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 20% and 30% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 50% of the current month's limit.
E. if the BTC spot price is greater than 30% and 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 40% of the current month's limit.
F. if the BTC spot price is greater than 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be not be authorized to withdraw any BTC from the budget."<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Currently BTC prices are barely at 25% above the 200-WMA, and of course there still might be a reluctance to withdraw any bitcoin from your BTC holdings when the price is seeming to be suppressed.. so I am merely giving some framework that guys might or might not choose to use.

Let's say that one of us had an income that had advanced from $30k to $50k between early 2016 and late 2024... So on average we had been investing into bitcoin around $150k per week, and by the end of 2024, we had invested around $70k into bitcoin and we had accumulated right about 22.81 BTC, and so largely through the years of investing into bitcoin, we had kept in our minds that with a bit of confidence once bitcoin was going to be able to support an $80k per year income and with 7% increases per year, then we would quit our job and begin to live off of bitcoin.

And so perhaps at the end of 2024, as the Trump pump was going on, we decide to look up how many bitcoin we need, and we see that it is 19.23 to support an $80k per year income, and since we have 22.81 BTC, we have right around 3.58 BTC extra cushion... So then perhaps on December 1, 2024 we pulled the fuck you lever, and we also started to withdraw $6,666 per month from our bitcoin.

So then when we look at the past 14 months, we see that we had withdrawn right around 1.09 BTC, so our bitcoin stash has gone down from 22.81 BTC to 21.72 BTC, and we see that right now, it takes 14.835 BTC to support an $85.6k income, and so we still have 6.886 BTC extra, so even though we were withdrawing at our target rate our bitcoin reserves (extra cushion stash had nearly doubled in its size in the past 14 months)... Accordingly, we adjust our monthly withdrawal rate go up 7% to $7,133 per month for the next 12-ish months.

Even though we have flexibility and discretion regarding our withdrawal rate, there can be a bit of stability to use the 200-WMA as the valuation guide and even to have some extra BTC to serve as a cushion in order to make sure that we are not withdrawing too much too soon, and so our withdrawal system starts out as sustainable and remains sustainable even when there might be some dramatic BTC price changes after we had already entered fuck you status.

What happened to the real Toxic Moxic?
Sure no problem weave in some data.. .. it can be quite overwhelming to go through such seemingly machine generated extensive numbers without some intermingled human commentary.
... or maybe in recent times you have mind-melded machine and man?
How does it feel?

fuck off @jjg      i post what i want    most of it shit   but i try    and i feel fucking great  

now this is what i come to WO for: genuine financial advice PLUS the added science of steampunk/bioaugmentation/cyberpunk!

Never a dull moment in the WO thread.

There are all kinds of funzies happening "on the regular."

[Toxic2040]

[jojo69]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

We don’t hit bottom until JJG & Biodom admit I was right and the four year cycle is real. We aren’t there yet. Maybe if we fall into the 50s? Hard to say.

I don’t take pleasure in the drop in Bitcoin’s value, but it is much easier to cope with when you knew it was going to happen and took precautions.

According to you, You are pretty wonderful.

A few days ago, I mentioned that I might be willing to concede that we have entered into a bear market... to the extent that it matters... and surely we have been dragging below $100k for quite some time, and even recent lower lows in terms of this portion of the correction -  so then a bear market from my consideration would be that if the odds for breakouts to the downside are greater than odds of breakouts to the upside.. and that status might not even last for very long to the extent that you are inclined to rejoice or wait for further lows that also might not end up happening - even if the odds to break down might have improved..

The extent to which you knew what was going to happen in advance is hardly even important - except perhaps to the extent that you were able to profit off of your trade this time.  

Many of us do not trade.. so we might not give to many shits about any luck that some guys might have had gotten from their BTC sales at higher prices.

[edited out]

Yep, pretty clear the four year cycle is still alive. I sold some at 92k and then again at 121k. I thought we would go much higher though so didn’t sell as much as I should have (same happened for me in 2017 and then 2021 - impossible to get the tops though).

I will agree that tops and bottoms are quite difficult to find, which is part of the rationale for my own system.

I will start buying back when we go below 55k and if we don’t get there then whatever, I still have a fat stack.

That is a pretty high expectation.  I am not in a betting mood anymore, even though that one is quite tempting.

I take no joy in this as it works out a lot better for me financially if we moon but @JayJuanGee @Ambatman @Mia Chloe - you boys are going to lose this bet. Close to zero chance we hit a new ATH in Q1 2026.

I would grant you that the odds are probably less than 20% that we might win the bet, and I might even grant you less than 15%, but close to 0% that seems to imply less than 1% odds - which I am just going to wait it out for the next 55-ish days and hope for a miracle... but yeah I might have to start to count my satoshis up in the potential of losing 1,818 per day for the next 55-ish days.  Not easy... but part of the bitcoin price dynamics process.

[OgNasty]

We don’t hit bottom until JJG & Biodom admit I was right and the four year cycle is real. We aren’t there yet. Maybe if we fall into the 50s? Hard to say.

According to you, You are pretty wonderful.

That doesn’t sound like an admission that I was right and you were wrong or an acknowledgement that the four year cycle is alive and well.

Lower we go!

[Paashaas]

Here's an observation that welcomes all the bears and haters to criticize:

This is the 2-week chart. Every time the price has gone below the lower Bollinger Band since 2014, it has marked the bottom (or very near the bottom) before a strong recovery.

We are below it now

X

[Oshosondy]

We don’t hit bottom until JJG & Biodom admit I was right and the four year cycle is real. We aren’t there yet. Maybe if we fall into the 50s? Hard to say.

According to you, You are pretty wonderful.

That doesn’t sound like an admission that I was right and you were wrong or an acknowledgement that the four year cycle is alive and well.

Lower we go!

I can remember that philipma1957 against me on some threads on the speculation board that there will not be a bear market or something like the 4 year cycle is over.

After making investigation about whales, peoplen and ETFs. And what asset managers like Michael Saylor are saying that there will not be a winter season, I was not convinced because there is nothing backing that up yet. Asset managers like Strategy and company like Metaplanet are not yet enough to defend the price is what I noticed. ETFs are not just there at all was what I used to finally make my conclusion.

It is now showing like bitcoin might fall between $59000 and $63500.

Bitcoin fell from $69000 to $15500 in the last cycle, that is 4.45x volatility
If bitcoin still fall to $50000 from $126500, that is still 2.52x volatility

That still means that there is reducing volatility as bitcoin adoption increased.

Bitcoin fell 99x before the first halving
33x before the second halving
5.16x before the third halving
4.45x before the fourth halving
If it is 2.52x now if bitcoin fall to $50000, it is still means the volatility reduced. But I think bitcoin may not go below $57000. I may be wrong, but this is what I analysed.

The bear market was confirmed around $90000 since many weeks ago when bitcoin failed to get to $100000.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

Binance is threatening people on social media with lawsuits for saying that the exchange is insolvent and are demanding retractions. This after BTC withdrawals were halted last night.



They just bought $100,000,000 for their new SAFU fund, so it’s hard to imagine they could be insolvent.

[philipma1957]

We don’t hit bottom until JJG & Biodom admit I was right and the four year cycle is real. We aren’t there yet. Maybe if we fall into the 50s? Hard to say.

According to you, You are pretty wonderful.

That doesn’t sound like an admission that I was right and you were wrong or an acknowledgement that the four year cycle is alive and well.

Lower we go!

I can remember that philipma1957 against me on some threads on the speculation board that there will not be a bear market or something like the 4 year cycle is over.

After making investigation about whales, peoplen and ETFs. And what asset managers like Michael Saylor are saying that there will not be a winter season, I was not convinced because there is nothing backing that up yet. Asset managers like Strategy and company like Metaplanet are not yet enough to defend the price is what I noticed. ETFs are not just there at all was what I used to finally make my conclusion.

It is now showing like bitcoin might fall between $59000 and $63500.

Bitcoin fell from $69000 to $15500 in the last cycle, that is 4.45x volatility
If bitcoin still fall to $50000 from $126500, that is still 2.52x volatility

That still means that there is reducing volatility as bitcoin adoption increased.

Bitcoin fell 99x before the first halving
33x before the second halving
5.16x before the third halving
4.45x before the fourth halving
If it is 2.52x now if bitcoin fall to $50000, it is still means the volatility reduced. But I think bitcoin may not go below $57000. I may be wrong, but this is what I analysed.

The bear market was confirmed around $90000 since many weeks ago when bitcoin failed to get to $100000.

the correction turned bear on or about Jan 13-14 2026

The question is it a teddy bear and or a cub.  Ie 66.6k or more for less than a month.. Or is it a grizzly ie 38k or so and last til 2027.

I would argue that is it is a cub and turns up in the spring from a low of 66.6k

reaching a new ATH before the 2028 1/2ing the are no longer 4 year cycles.


but that if it goes grizzly and as low as 38k lasting deep into 2027 oG is correct.

I oG is correct I will likely leave btc if and we we get over 120k,


My reasoning  is there is no longer a viable reason for the 4 year cycle which means it has become or always was a yo yo for the rich to play with.

[nutildah]

Pack it up bros, its over

[asUHWEceyc]

Does CZ's pardon provide a get out of jail free card for all crimes present and future- or just those committed previously?

Perhaps the pardon deal is a bit more nuanced, something like: "do what we want you to do [with the price] or else..." a la Gary's office visit Wells notice regime?

Seems like that's gotta be it for all of the US coin<->fiat orifices 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

Binance is threatening people on social media with lawsuits for saying that the exchange is insolvent and are demanding retractions. This after BTC withdrawals were halted last night.



They just bought $100,000,000 for their new SAFU fund, so it’s hard to imagine they could be insolvent.

It is expected that someone starts doing this. I mean these kinds of statements are very damaging to the core of their business, and they are exclusively based on speculation. Pausing withdrawals due to high volume of withdrawals happens quite often. If they had some automated way to top up from cold storage that would be very insecure..

[ESG]

Hi Buddy!,

 I know that 'BID' and 'ASK' are prices that are on the order books (bitsatmp in your case)
and will somehow be executed.,

 so the hope that remains, is that you will post new prices on the order book,
higher than the ones you have been posting lately,...

 Well, here is the monthly BTC USD>

[Biodom]

We don’t hit bottom until JJG & Biodom admit I was right and the four year cycle is real. We aren’t there yet. Maybe if we fall into the 50s? Hard to say.

I don’t take pleasure in the drop in Bitcoin’s value, but it is much easier to cope with when you knew it was going to happen and took precautions.

Yep, pretty clear the four year cycle is still alive. I sold some at 92k and then again at 121k. I thought we would go much higher though so didn’t sell as much as I should have (same happened for me in 2017 and then 2021 - impossible to get the tops though).

I will start buying back when we go below 55k and if we don’t get there then whatever, I still have a fat stack.
I take no joy in this as it works out a lot better for me financially if we moon but @JayJuanGee @Ambatman @Mia Chloe - you boys are going to lose this bet. Close to zero chance we hit a new ATH in Q1 2026.

Good luck on that re-buying, really, but I expect that sooner or later bitcoin will bite all "cyclists" in the ass.
Either it would surge and "cyclists" would be left behind with pennies on a dollar or it could plunge after you or someone else buy at 55K.
Why not? No one knows for sure but the time/space crystal, I suppose.

That said, sellers don't really upset me, but simple predictions like" "oh, it is a cycle" will not work at some point.
My life duration is basically a limit for me as I want to know what bitcoin can do.
Is it possible that it is "not too much" and I made a judgement error?
Yes, but I refuse to "sell early" on this one (small size sells don't count).
We shall see.

PS I am not pronouncing bottoms, but my earlier prediction was 71.2K, for which I got a "rusty pipe" from @Heuristic (no biggie, it's all fun and games).
It almost happened already, though. If it goes lower, then maybe bitcoin story is weaker than some of us (including myself) thought.
That said, "Cycles" do not exist any longer. There are other factors at play.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com