Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

this time manipulators didn't even bother to fabricate a reason for the dump.. So it must have been "the cycle".

I bet next thing they will do is fucking over the cyclists...

I doubt we're done for today...
still sharp sells crushing the buys.

cycle low should be end of February / March

But. And I pose this as a very serious question.  Almost every other cycle prediction was a failure so far in this cycle. Timings, amounts all of them off enough for me to call them misses.

Why would we expect the bottom to work the way it's supposed to?

It may be annoying for some people to read, and I accept my Don Quixote's status in this regard, but we are not playing the game that we played for the last 15 years anymore.  

@Ognasty thinks that we still are...and I am trying to suggest to him and to others that we are not (in vain, apparently).

[JayJuanGee]

If you were to have 300 bitcoin, then why would it matter if you were to have $126k ($38 million) in value or $58k  ($17 million).  I know you want more and more, yet you likely ended up with way less than 30 bitcoin based on your trading and desires for more in the face of one of the best (if not the best?) of places to put your value.

This is not my question to answer, but when is that ever stopped me?

I think that I am making a different point, since if we are looking at bitcoin, it is quite likely that the investor would end up in a position in having 10x more coins than the trader, unless the trader ended up getting lucky on a consistent basis, then potentially he might have had been able to keep up with the investor. Perhaps?

I was attempting a comparison between the trader and the investor, and in bitcoin , it had been really difficult for the trader to beat the investor, and even if the trader might be experiencing some seemingly current victories, I continue to doubt such victory abilities in longer time frames, whether 15 years or maybe even if we were to compare any periods of 8 years or longer. 

[Biodom]

If you were to have 300 bitcoin, then why would it matter if you were to have $126k ($38 million) in value or $58k  ($17 million).  I know you want more and more, yet you likely ended up with way less than 30 bitcoin based on your trading and desires for more in the face of one of the best (if not the best?) of places to put your value.

This is not my question to answer, but when is that ever stopped me?

I think that I am making a different point, since if we are looking at bitcoin, it is quite likely that the investor would end up in a position in having 10x more coins than the trader, unless the trader ended up getting lucky on a consistent basis, then potentially he might have had been able to keep up with the investor. Perhaps?

I was attempting a comparison between the trader and the investor, and in bitcoin , it had been really difficult for the trader to beat the investor, and even if the trader might be experiencing some seemingly current victories, I continue to doubt such victory abilities in longer time frames, whether 15 years or maybe even if we were to compare any periods of 8 years or longer. 

yeah...trader's profits are always minuscule in comparison to hodlers as long as the story is intact and the latter is the question that is being asked every single bear market.
So far, the market always answered in the affirmative.

[JayJuanGee]

this time manipulators didn't even bother to fabricate a reason for the dump.. So it must have been "the cycle".
I bet next thing they will do is fucking over the cyclists...

I doubt we're done for today...
still sharp sells crushing the buys.

cycle low should be end of February / March

But. And I pose this as a very serious question.  Almost every other cycle prediction was a failure so far in this cycle. Timings, amounts all of them off enough for me to call them misses.
Why would we expect the bottom to work the way it's supposed to?

It may be annoying for some people to read, and I accept my Don Quixote's status in this regard, but we are not playing the game that we played for the last 15 years anymore. 

You are saying that there is still a chance that I might be able to win my bet with LFC?

Now, I am starting to consider less than 5% odds of my winning.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

this time manipulators didn't even bother to fabricate a reason for the dump.. So it must have been "the cycle".

I bet next thing they will do is fucking over the cyclists...

I doubt we're done for today...
still sharp sells crushing the buys.

cycle low should be end of February / March

But. And I pose this as a very serious question.  Almost every other cycle prediction was a failure so far in this cycle. Timings, amounts all of them off enough for me to call them misses.

Why would we expect the bottom to work the way it's supposed to?

It may be annoying for some people to read, and I accept my Don Quixote's status in this regard, but we are not playing the game that we played for the last 15 years anymore. 

Just look at other so called safe have markets ie: metals

silver and gold jan 2025 to feb 2026 movements have not happened ever.

So when 20 trillion can become 40 trillion then 30 trillion all on paper in 13 months we are dealing with numbers that dwarf crypto (sorry JJG)

you basically can see all values items are being played like yo-yo's by Trump and Co


good luck to us all. We are going to need it.

[BTCETFInvestor]

MicroStrategy's shares ($MSTR) dropped over 15% today.

[cAPSLOCK]

If you were to have 300 bitcoin, then why would it matter if you were to have $126k ($38 million) in value or $58k  ($17 million).  I know you want more and more, yet you likely ended up with way less than 30 bitcoin based on your trading and desires for more in the face of one of the best (if not the best?) of places to put your value.

This is not my question to answer, but when is that ever stopped me?

I think that I am making a different point, since if we are looking at bitcoin, it is quite likely that the investor would end up in a position in having 10x more coins than the trader, unless the trader ended up getting lucky on a consistent basis, then potentially he might have had been able to keep up with the investor. Perhaps?

I was attempting a comparison between the trader and the investor, and in bitcoin , it had been really difficult for the trader to beat the investor, and even if the trader might be experiencing some seemingly current victories, I continue to doubt such victory abilities in longer time frames, whether 15 years or maybe even if we were to compare any periods of 8 years or longer. 

Absolutely.  And with no record of other people's trading histories or results other than their word, it really does boil down to the Joker for me because what's the point?  Why are we hearing the story? Well, it's psychology, I guess.

It is a very rare trader who can beat markets and it's simply mathematically proven for most people to buy and hold is a more profitable strategy than to try to trade.  People who beat the market do exist, but there aren't many of them.  And it's just math, because if it was that easy to do, well, it would stop being that easy to do.

In the end, it's going to be what one person calls a rose because... Some people will see cycles, some people will see the vanishing of cycles, and others like myself will see what seems to be a reduced influence of the so-called Bitcoin cycle over the price.

The more interesting topic for me currently is what really is driving the price now.

I can come up with a handful of very likely factors and a couple of them are quite fun to explore their branching possibilities.

For example just a simple question.

What if the institutional powerhouses have gained the ability to have significant control over the current price of Bitcoin?

Playing this game based on the rules as they have existed so far is madness, in my opinion. But hey... what do I know? 

[BTCETFInvestor]

JPMorgan states it views Bitcoin as a more attractive long-term investment than gold, despite its recent sell-off. They note Bitcoin is currently deeply oversold.

[cAPSLOCK]

MicroStrategy's shares ($MSTR) dropped over 15% today.

Good.

And I don't mean that as an affront to people who have invested in that stock.

Michael Saylor has always been a fantastic spokesman for Bitcoin, at least for the most part. And his idea for a company is both novel and brilliant.

But we're about to find out whether or not he's going to be getting too far over his skis. And has he thought through every attack surface on his company. It doesn't look like it to be honest.

Then again, I have not spent much time doing the math, particularly after all his weird derivatives he's issued, on what he is and is not capable of withstanding.

[BTCETFInvestor]

MicroStrategy's shares ($MSTR) dropped over 15% today.

Good.

And I don't mean that as an affront to people who have invested in that stock.

Michael Saylor has always been a fantastic spokesman for Bitcoin, at least for the most part. And his idea for a company is both novel and brilliant.

But we're about to find out whether or not he's going to be getting too far over his skis. And has he thought through every attack surface on his company. It doesn't look like it to be honest.

Then again, I have not spent much time doing the math, particularly after all his weird derivatives he's issued, on what he is and is not capable of withstanding.

Yeah, I'm with you on that. But it wouldn't surprise me if he bought a gazillion more BTC today or buys tomorrow...    



$130B 24 hour volume!  

[lightfoot]

*checks in*

HODL

[philipma1957]

MicroStrategy's shares ($MSTR) dropped over 15% today.

Good.

And I don't mean that as an affront to people who have invested in that stock.

Michael Saylor has always been a fantastic spokesman for Bitcoin, at least for the most part. And his idea for a company is both novel and brilliant.

But we're about to find out whether or not he's going to be getting too far over his skis. And has he thought through every attack surface on his company. It doesn't look like it to be honest.

Then again, I have not spent much time doing the math, particularly after all his weird derivatives he's issued, on what he is and is not capable of withstanding.

What backing does he have.

ie Mask and the USA gov could be the people behind his curtain.

Microstrategy  con be designed to be bought out during the current price cash from the get.

Nice cheap price for the USA treasury.

Just saying.

[philipma1957]

have to say one thing be ready for more dip and lower prices.

we got below 69k and 66.6 k

down into 62.5k area

so 59k is coming


but if you are on the sidelines and have not got any dip at all buy some now and have cash for more dip later on.

[BTCETFInvestor]

Both BlackRock and Fidelity continue to project a long‑term bullish outlook for Bitcoin, and the latest data reinforces that they’re not backing off their thesis. Their behavior in the market, their public commentary, and their ETF activity all point in the same direction: they still see Bitcoin as a major long‑term asset with structural upside.

BlackRock’s outlook is still strongly bullish. Larry Fink (BlackRock CEO) has repeatedly stated that Bitcoin could reach $700,000, citing global demand, currency debasement concerns, and institutional adoption. BlackRock continues to add aggressively to IBIT, contributing to major inflow surges and record ETF holdings.

Fidelity’s outlook is also bullish with a 'Supply‑Crunch' thesis. Fidelity analysts forecast that 42% of all Bitcoin could become illiquid by 2032, implying a major supply squeeze and long‑term upward price pressure. Fidelity’s macro director Jurrien Timmer maintains a long‑term constructive view, comparing Bitcoin’s adoption curve to early‑stage monetary assets and maintaining Bitcoin will be $1 million by 2030. Fidelity’s FBTC has been leading ETF inflows during market recoveries, showing continued institutional accumulation.

[xhomerx10]

is there any cup ramen with wagyu flavor?

 I doubt it.  We can't even afford the fertilizer that comes out of Wagu cattle now!

[BTCETFInvestor]

have to say one thing be ready for more dip and lower prices.

we got below 69k and 66.6 k

down into 62.5k area

so 59k is coming


but if you are on the sidelines and have not got any dip at all buy some now and have cash for more dip later on.

Down 13% today - 50% of ATH!   Fun times! 

[xhomerx10]

I feel like someone is playing with us... someone who doesn't give a shit.

[OgNasty]

Raise your hand if you won’t be selling any BTC in 2026.

[fillippone]

We don’t hit bottom until JJG & Biodom admit I was right and the four year cycle is real. We aren’t there yet. Maybe if we fall into the 50s? Hard to say.

I don’t take pleasure in the drop in Bitcoin’s value, but it is much easier to cope with when you knew it was going to happen and took precautions.

Yep, pretty clear the four year cycle is still alive. I sold some at 92k and then again at 121k. I thought we would go much higher though so didn’t sell as much as I should have (same happened for me in 2017 and then 2021 - impossible to get the tops though).

I will start buying back when we go below 55k and if we don’t get there then whatever, I still have a fat stack.
I take no joy in this as it works out a lot better for me financially if we moon but @JayJuanGee @Ambatman @Mia Chloe - you boys are going to lose this bet. Close to zero chance we hit a new ATH in Q1 2026.

Never say never.
Bitcoin can do bitcoin things.
(Yes, still hoping for ATH in Q12026, not as savvy as you).