Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[psycodad]

So mempool is empty again, panic selling from little girlies running around in circles while screaming stopped. (props to vapourminer for bringing that image to my mind that I can't obviously unsee any more).
Was fun while it lasted.

What's next now, a boring new war, Aliens, AGI, el cheffe naranja uttering something smart - or maybe (one can still hope) a zombie apocalypse?

Exactly what I signed up for, even it hit me hard as I missed the time to put sufficiently shitcoin aside (fiat) near the top - but what would BTC be without the rollercoaster vibe?

Also: 新年快乐!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LoyceV]

Shower thought (considering Dutch tax plans): what if I trade 1 Dutch tulip bulb for 100 Bitcoin at the end of 2028? In the current tax system, I won't be taxed too much on the gains. In January 2029, I trade back the 100 Bitcoin for a tulip bulb, and take a massive loss on my investments. It will give me a massive tax write off for many years to come. Would that be a legal loophole? It's kinda the inverse of a boating accident, and considering the crazy idea of an annual (why not monthly or even daily, to give them any ideas?) tax on unrealized gains starting in 2028, I wouldn't mind to find a way out (other than leaving the country).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[somac.]

So mempool is empty again, panic selling from little girlies running around in circles while screaming stopped. (props to vapourminer for bringing that image to my mind that I can't obviously unsee any more).
Was fun while it lasted.

What's next now, a boring new war, Aliens, AGI, el cheffe naranja uttering something smart - or maybe (one can still hope) a zombie apocalypse?

Exactly what I signed up for, even it hit me hard as I missed the time to put sufficiently shitcoin aside (fiat) near the top - but what would BTC be without the rollercoaster vibe?

Also: 新年快乐!

Yeah, if we haven't hit the bottom yet we're close. I don't think will stay flat for as long as many expect. New fed chair is in come May, and that does actually mean something.

[vapourminer]

Dialog with the shrink
Cycle in the room with us?
In some minds! So, yes.

my shrink is Tuesday
Ill ask her whats up with that
let ya know next week

#haiku

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Shower thought (considering Dutch tax plans): what if I trade 1 Dutch tulip bulb for 100 Bitcoin at the end of 2028? In the current tax system, I won't be taxed too much. In January 2029, I trade back the 100 Bitcoin for a tulip bulb, and take a massive loss on my investments. It will give me a massive tax write off for many years to come. Would that be a legal loophole? It's kinda the inverse of a boating accident, and considering the crazy idea of an annual (why not monthly or even daily, to give them any ideas?) tax on unrealized gains starting in 2028, I wouldn't mind to find a way out (other than leaving the country).

well I created a 40k loss in 2022 after the crash.

It is down to 20k now and it did work out for me . 

But that is USA tax law.

[philipma1957]

So mempool is empty again, panic selling from little girlies running around in circles while screaming stopped. (props to vapourminer for bringing that image to my mind that I can't obviously unsee any more).
Was fun while it lasted.

What's next now, a boring new war, Aliens, AGI, el cheffe naranja uttering something smart - or maybe (one can still hope) a zombie apocalypse?

Exactly what I signed up for, even it hit me hard as I missed the time to put sufficiently shitcoin aside (fiat) near the top - but what would BTC be without the rollercoaster vibe?

Also: 新年快乐!

Happy new year to you


"The Year of the Fire Horse begins on February 17, 2026

(with solar, or Li Chun, starting Feb 3), bringing a rare 60-year cycle of intense, passionate, and fast-paced energy."

this is from google Ai

[LoyceV]

well I created a 40k loss in 2022 after the crash.

I had a loss that year too. After filling out all the data, taxes say: "your gain is 0". They estimate I'll get the savings tax I paid back before 2030, without interest And in 2023 I was taxed again as if I had no loss the year before.
But that's the Netherlands tax law

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Richy_T]

The fundamental reason for a 4 year cycle, the halvings, lose half their power with each new halving. The first one was strong, the second still strong, the third lost power, the forth meant even less, and the next one will be even more meaningless.

While true, this is counteracted somewhat by a) more people not being willing to trade their coins (or coins not on the market for other reasons) and 2) the price itself. A few times over the years, I've had to adjust the Y axis on Chartbuddy up because it's not automatic and it's denominated in number of bitcoins.

With that said, what you wrote following is correct. It's just that while freshly minted bitcoins are decreasing, so is the trading volume.

Freshly mined Bitcoins are insignificant compared to the total trading volume.
Without a fundamental reason for a 4 year cycle, it will only exist as long as enough people believe it exists and make it happen by speculating on it. Until it doesn't happen anymore.

A third counter-counter mechanic is that the pool of people who haven't bought in yet also continues to decrease Not exhausted yet but we've decided not to include people who might use it as electronic peer-to-peer cash. Many moving parts...

[philipma1957]

well I created a 40k loss in 2022 after the crash.

I had a loss that year too. After filling out all the data, taxes say: "your gain is 0". They estimate I'll get the savings tax back I paid back before 2030, without interest And in 2023 I was taxed again as if I had no loss the year before.
But that's the Netherlands tax law

tax laws are fucked up.

USA fed taxes allow 3000 of the 40000 loss and carried over 37000 .

and I used 17000 of that when I sold some coin in 2025 so for the fed tax I have 37,000-17,000=20,000  which I can use if I sell at a profit in the future .  Fair enough a limit to 3k loss if you make no sales from the carryover loss is allowed each year.

I am fine with set of rules.

But my state taxes say fuck you.  If you make money on a stock or btc sale pay us.

If you loss money fuck you no deduction.

Pretty much flat out thievery.

I could get into what they do about property tax and declaring itself a sanctuary state to use illegal aliens as an economic weapon against real true citizens but that's another subject.
And a bit more complicated.

It's why I do not like Trump's method of fixing the issue. As I have said he should simply try the Governor of NJ with treason for signing an executive order allowing a sanctuary state.

It really drives up property taxes in a calculated way.

[cAPSLOCK]

Shower thought (considering Dutch tax plans): what if I trade 1 Dutch tulip bulb for 100 Bitcoin at the end of 2028? In the current tax system, I won't be taxed too much. In January 2029, I trade back the 100 Bitcoin for a tulip bulb, and take a massive loss on my investments. It will give me a massive tax write off for many years to come. Would that be a legal loophole? It's kinda the inverse of a boating accident, and considering the crazy idea of an annual (why not monthly or even daily, to give them any ideas?) tax on unrealized gains starting in 2028, I wouldn't mind to find a way out (other than leaving the country).

I have no idea how this would work, but I'm just delighted that you picked tulip bulbs for this.

When they ask you about tulip bulbs, you can then play dumb and not know whitch they're talking about (bitcoin=tulip).  And if they ask to see the tulip bulbs, you could show them a small bag of tiny onions and say you don't understand why they smell funny.

Maybe they will just go away?

[BTCETFInvestor]

2012 (halving) ---> end of 2013 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Nov. 2013 @ $1,163)

...add 4 years:

2016 (halving) ---> end of 2017 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Dec. 2017 @ $19,666)

...add 4 years:

2020 (halving) ---> end of 2021 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Nov. 2021 @ $69,000)

...add 4 years:

2024 (halving) ---> end of 2025 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Oct. 2025 @ $126,272)

...add 4 years:

2028 (halving) ---> end of 2029 (ATH)   Projected

...

Bitstamp prices.

Can it be any clearer? The 4-year cycles do exist, as demonstrated above in full glory. This is undeniable.

I think we are in for the usual (predictable and expected) cycle winter, until 2028 (halving) ---> end of 2029 (ATH).

Gold/silver, politics, wars, pandemics, they just add noise, but do not break the pattern.

Buy/HoDL if you can, spend some if you want/must, enjoy life (that should be the goal).

This is fine.

@AlcoHoDL - I like this! I totally agree and think this is spot-on!

[Lucius]

So mempool is empty again, panic selling from little girlies running around in circles while screaming stopped. (props to vapourminer for bringing that image to my mind that I can't obviously unsee any more).
Was fun while it lasted.

What's next now, a boring new war, Aliens, AGI, el cheffe naranja uttering something smart - or maybe (one can still hope) a zombie apocalypse?

Exactly what I signed up for, even it hit me hard as I missed the time to put sufficiently shitcoin aside (fiat) near the top - but what would BTC be without the rollercoaster vibe?

Also: 新年快乐!

Yeah, if we haven't hit the bottom yet we're close. I don't think will stay flat for as long as many expect. New fed chair is in come May, and that does actually mean something.

I don't know how much truth there is in that, but I read that the most likely candidate is some guy from BlackRock - considering that they are very influential and get what they want (just remember the spot ETFs before and after their request) I wouldn't be surprised if they put him in that position.

What is absolutely certain is that he will be the executor of whatever comes from the White House, so there is no need to wonder what his policies will be. But should we hope for something positive from that direction? A policy of chaos and gun-rattling is bad for business (except, of course, for the military industry).

[lightfoot]

Man, this price action is actually hilariously exciting! It's like watching Toyota Motor Company or Ford putting a Going Out of Business sign on their dealerships and then removing it, and then doing it all over again, and again, and again.      

More like a BITCON! 50% OFF SALE!

[BlackHatCoiner]

[LoyceV]

More like a BITCON! 50% OFF SALE!

Buy 1 Take 1!

@BlackHatCoiner: GMTA

[vapourminer]

Shower thought (considering Dutch tax plans): what if I trade 1 Dutch tulip bulb for 100 Bitcoin at the end of 2028? In the current tax system, I won't be taxed too much. In January 2029, I trade back the 100 Bitcoin for a tulip bulb, and take a massive loss on my investments. It will give me a massive tax write off for many years to come. Would that be a legal loophole? It's kinda the inverse of a boating accident, and considering the crazy idea of an annual (why not monthly or even daily, to give them any ideas?) tax on unrealized gains starting in 2028, I wouldn't mind to find a way out (other than leaving the country).

I have no idea how this would work, but I'm just delighted that you picked tulip bulbs for this.

When they ask you about tulip bulbs, you can then play dumb and not know whitch they're talking about (bitcoin=tulip).  And if they ask to see the tulip bulbs, you could show them a small bag of tiny onions and say you don't understand why they smell funny.

Maybe they will just go away?

pretty sure some idiot with an AI will print some really period correct credentials and other such detailed official lineage of the tulip or whatever the tulip accountants generally use. like, PERFECT visual reproductions of documents.

then said idiot would print it all on cheapest paper he could find in a stables store and some junker laser. turn it in to the Tax Man

SsE iM RihC!!