Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[aesma]

Man it drops so fast I can't decide when I should consider buying a chunk.

Aside from my small DCA the last time I bought a significant amount 0.X BTC) was below 50K$.

Good example of market psychology.

We're at a point where OGs start to buy back what they sold above $100k.
Next step: more confident newbies start to think it might be a good idea to get cheap coin and the panic will stop.

Every single person has a number in mind when bitcoin is cheap enough and the lower it gets the more of these people will do something about it.


In my mind everything below $90k was already too cheap to sell. I'd rather wait 2 more years and sell above $100k than do it at $80k, but for people who bought at $100k and bitcoin is just a number on a spreadsheet, that feels completely different.

My average price is in the 4 digits range so anything in the 5 digits is already expensive to buy for me, but of course that's only one way to see things.

I didn't sell anything above 100K (or above 50K for that matter) so I don't have money earned with corn to buy more corn, I figured long ago that I was too bad at trading.

So I'm only considering buying a chunk with fiat earned the old way, by having a job :p

[philipma1957]

Man it drops so fast I can't decide when I should consider buying a chunk.

Aside from my small DCA the last time I bought a significant amount 0.X BTC) was below 50K$.

Good example of market psychology.

We're at a point where OGs start to buy back what they sold above $100k.
Next step: more confident newbies start to think it might be a good idea to get cheap coin and the panic will stop.

Every single person has a number in mind when bitcoin is cheap enough and the lower it gets the more of these people will do something about it.


In my mind everything below $90k was already too cheap to sell. I'd rather wait 2 more years and sell above $100k than do it at $80k, but for people who bought at $100k and bitcoin is just a number on a spreadsheet, that feels completely different.

My average price is in the 4 digits range so anything in the 5 digits is already expensive to buy for me, but of course that's only one way to see things.

I didn't sell anything above 100K (or above 50K for that matter) so I don't have money earn with corn to buy more corn, I figured long ago that I was too bad at trading.

So I'm only considering buying a chunk with fiat earned the old way, by having a job :p

Well if you are at 5000 a coin and have 20 or more coins it is easy to sell 1 at 120,000.

But if you are at 5000 a coin and have 2 coins it is hard to sell at 120,000

Good  luck on your hold move here is hoping one day the price is good enough for you to sell and enjoy some of it.

For me I simply try to close in on 2  coins.

Maybe by July.


Other news the Difficulty adjustment will be here soon and miners will get some relief. AS WE WILL SEE A 12% DROP IN DIFFICULTY.

[asUHWEceyc]

Big, swift moves are always a good reminder that bitcoin might not be real, but fiat is obviously fake

As for postdiction narratives, what gives?

Number of days from halving
Binance insolvency hole filling
Live test by players that understand what's at stake to accumulate more, where bitcoin to zero would be a welcome side effect
Clarity act negotiation leverage
Early Lunar New Year discount

eH?

[MisFoxie]

More like a BITCON! 50% OFF SALE!

It's time to start shopping again. Btw when was the last time you bought the dip?

[lightfoot]

Other news the Difficulty adjustment will be here soon and miners will get some relief. AS WE WILL SEE A 12% DROP IN DIFFICULTY.

My Block Erupter will be happy to hear that.

[aesma]

Man it drops so fast I can't decide when I should consider buying a chunk.

Aside from my small DCA the last time I bought a significant amount 0.X BTC) was below 50K$.

Good example of market psychology.

We're at a point where OGs start to buy back what they sold above $100k.
Next step: more confident newbies start to think it might be a good idea to get cheap coin and the panic will stop.

Every single person has a number in mind when bitcoin is cheap enough and the lower it gets the more of these people will do something about it.


In my mind everything below $90k was already too cheap to sell. I'd rather wait 2 more years and sell above $100k than do it at $80k, but for people who bought at $100k and bitcoin is just a number on a spreadsheet, that feels completely different.

My average price is in the 4 digits range so anything in the 5 digits is already expensive to buy for me, but of course that's only one way to see things.

I didn't sell anything above 100K (or above 50K for that matter) so I don't have money earn with corn to buy more corn, I figured long ago that I was too bad at trading.

So I'm only considering buying a chunk with fiat earned the old way, by having a job :p

Well if you are at 5000 a coin and have 20 or more coins it is easy to sell 1 at 120,000.

But if you are at 5000 a coin and have 2 coins it is hard to sell at 120,000

Good  luck on your hold move here is hoping one day the price is good enough for you to sell and enjoy some of it.

For me I simply try to close in on 2  coins.

Maybe by July.

Other news the Difficulty adjustment will be here soon and miners will get some relief. AS WE WILL SEE A 12% DROP IN DIFFICULTY.

I'm between those 2 ah ah.

When your stash is worth several millions I guess it's easier to shave a bit but I didn't get to that point yet.

In other news another crypto kidnapping in France, it's becoming a weekly occurrence. So far the kidnappers have always been small time criminals hired through internet, leading to their operation being ineffective, here the 2 kidnapped women managed to escape, fortunately : https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2026/02/06/french-judge-and-her-mother-freed-after-a-cryptocurrency-linked-abduction_6750220_7.html

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

the climb back?

[Biodom]

2012 (halving) ---> end of 2013 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Nov. 2013 @ $1,163)

...add 4 years:

2016 (halving) ---> end of 2017 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Dec. 2017 @ $19,666)

...add 4 years:

2020 (halving) ---> end of 2021 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Nov. 2021 @ $69,000)

...add 4 years:

2024 (halving) ---> end of 2025 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Oct. 2025 @ $126,272)

...add 4 years:

2028 (halving) ---> end of 2029 (ATH)   Projected

...

Bitstamp prices.

Can it be any clearer? The 4-year cycles do exist, as demonstrated above in full glory. This is undeniable.

I think we are in for the usual (predictable and expected) cycle winter, until 2028 (halving) ---> end of 2029 (ATH).

Gold/silver, politics, wars, pandemics, they just add noise, but do not break the pattern.

Buy/HoDL if you can, spend some if you want/must, enjoy life (that should be the goal).

This is fine.

No...this is an over-simplification. No cycle is guaranteed...all these 2029 projections are unreliable.
It could turn around in 2 months or it could stay down for 3 years.
The cycle cannot exist because there is not enough daily btc issuance vs trading volume, can't you see this?

Additionally, the math of diminishing returns, but very slowly decreasing % of plunges suggests the demise of the asset-can't you "math it"?
Run the numbers. It's either no cycles and growth or f-g cycles and an almost assured demise.

No rationality except of looking backwards.
Examples: Ben Cowen (the silliest analyst ever), Ognasty, Ivan on tech, etc.
Prediction: down you'll go (in your analysis) when btc shows something new and relatively soonish.

Adding to my earlier reply:

The existence of cycles does not equal diminishing returns or the demise of Bitcoin. Equating cycles with the demise of Bitcoin is a distorted interpretation of cycles. In my view, 4-year cycles are more about time (hence their name), and less about value. I.e., the next cycle ATH may well occur in 2029 or thereabouts (as projected), but its value could well be much higher than the past (2013, 2017, 2021, 2025) ATH price progression. If you re-read my post above, nowhere did I predict a price for the next ATH. All I gave was the projected time of the next cycle ATH, based on historical cycle ATH times of the past 14 years.

In my view, the fact (and it's a hard fact, deeply embedded in Bitcoin's design) that Bitcoin production is reduced by half every 4 years, necessitates the existence of 4-year cycles. It just can't happen any other way. Cutting production of Bitcoin (or, indeed, of anything) by half is too large of a step change to not have an effect on price, that has to be in sync with the halving time (every 4 years!).

Sure, something very positive could happen to Bitcoin, and very likely will happen, and I hope it happens soon, that will push the price very high, even in the $millions. But, in my opinion, and considering the way Bitcoin works at the technical/algorithmic level, the 4-year cycles will still be there, ever present, and a direct result of the halving of Bitcoin production every 4 years. Math & science!

Well...you claim continued cycles (in price), but then say that diminishing returns and VERY slowing % of plunges do not count, but they WERE part of the cycles.
I am not sure that you can have cycles and NOT have those two parameters at play.
The proper solution is to NOT have cycles. The issuance is already small enough to basically ignore for all market participants, excluding actual miners.
As of now, cycle exist only in the heads of bitcoiners, really.

[lightfoot]

the climb back?

Time to post trains?

[psycodad]

So mempool is empty again, panic selling from little girlies running around in circles while screaming stopped. (props to vapourminer for bringing that image to my mind that I can't obviously unsee any more).
Was fun while it lasted.

What's next now, a boring new war, Aliens, AGI, el cheffe naranja uttering something smart - or maybe (one can still hope) a zombie apocalypse?

Exactly what I signed up for, even it hit me hard as I missed the time to put sufficiently shitcoin aside (fiat) near the top - but what would BTC be without the rollercoaster vibe?

Also: 新年快乐!

Happy new year to you


"The Year of the Fire Horse begins on February 17, 2026

(with solar, or Li Chun, starting Feb 3), bringing a rare 60-year cycle of intense, passionate, and fast-paced energy."

this is from google Ai

Thank you, I worked with quite few Chinese contacts over the years and I've got some friends there, some of them even close friends. You can bet they all let you know which time the holidays are this year so I got used to somewhat celebrate it too by wishing people xīn nián kuài lè whereas in a BTC-forum 恭喜发财 (Gōng Xǐ Fā Cái) would probably more appropriate ("health and prosperity to you" - who can't use a bit of that?).

Festivities run from 7th through 25th, so in China its basically "shop closed until 25th".

It's actually more or less the only time the Chinese get to have holidays and many of them only see their parents and family in this time. Everything is closed, like really everything except transportation which totally collapses under the masses.
Who knows, maybe its the Chinese spending their red envelopes for Bitcoin that colour the charts greenish r/n.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Nothing is guaranteed in this system especially bitcoin movement. Normally fluctuation is part of any business. Hope and speculation is what people have in bitcoin. The projection may be right or wrong. Another angle about the projection is trust and stability of the Bitcoin handlers. All we do is to speculate if by the first quarter of the year, Bitcoin will hit a low or high price. In my opinion it will hit high price because of the instability of the fiat in some countries.

I am not sure about hitting another ATH in the first quarter, yet maybe in the second quarter.

it can take time to reverse, even in better case scenarios - even though from time to time, we do see outrageously UPpity bursts, yet many times those outrageously UPpity bursts tend to still be a product of time and building up momentum rather than just happening randomly.. .but yeah, we do currently live in strange times, so some level of outrageous could end up happening to the upside in shorter periods of time than previously considered to be feasible.

Shower thought (considering Dutch tax plans): what if I trade 1 Dutch tulip bulb for 100 Bitcoin at the end of 2028? In the current tax system, I won't be taxed too much on the gains. In January 2029, I trade back the 100 Bitcoin for a tulip bulb, and take a massive loss on my investments. It will give me a massive tax write off for many years to come. Would that be a legal loophole? It's kinda the inverse of a boating accident, and considering the crazy idea of an annual (why not monthly or even daily, to give them any ideas?) tax on unrealized gains starting in 2028, I wouldn't mind to find a way out (other than leaving the country).

I would think that most countries have limits on write offs, such as per year and/or per life.

Many of us likely realize historically (and maybe even sometimes on individual levels) that sometimes non-compliance and/or civil disobedience end up having to be played in certain situations in order to facilitate change (and/or justice) when unfair and/or unjust laws are put in place.

The fundamental reason for a 4 year cycle, the halvings, lose half their power with each new halving. The first one was strong, the second still strong, the third lost power, the forth meant even less, and the next one will be even more meaningless.

While true, this is counteracted somewhat by a) more people not being willing to trade their coins (or coins not on the market for other reasons) and 2) the price itself. A few times over the years, I've had to adjust the Y axis on Chartbuddy up because it's not automatic and it's denominated in number of bitcoins.

With that said, what you wrote following is correct. It's just that while freshly minted bitcoins are decreasing, so is the trading volume.

Freshly mined Bitcoins are insignificant compared to the total trading volume.
Without a fundamental reason for a 4 year cycle, it will only exist as long as enough people believe it exists and make it happen by speculating on it. Until it doesn't happen anymore.

A third counter-counter mechanic is that the pool of people who haven't bought in yet also continues to decrease Not exhausted yet but we've decided not to include people who might use it as electronic peer-to-peer cash. Many moving parts...

I have trouble figuring out how you are imagining current levels of bitcoin adoption to be anything other than outrageously low.  Sure, normies are likely not going to want to get involved in bitcoin, and sure a bunch of fucktwats with paper bitcoins, paperized products, and/or playing around with bitcoin to ONLY manipulate the price are going to likely continue to ongoingly strive to ruin dee party, but that still does not mean that bitcoin is not going to trickle into the heads and hands of normies in the next decade or two or more.

Man it drops so fast I can't decide when I should consider buying a chunk.

Aside from my small DCA the last time I bought a significant amount 0.X BTC) was below 50K$.

Good example of market psychology.
We're at a point where OGs start to buy back what they sold above $100k.
Next step: more confident newbies start to think it might be a good idea to get cheap coin and the panic will stop.

Every single person has a number in mind when bitcoin is cheap enough and the lower it gets the more of these people will do something about it.

In my mind everything below $90k was already too cheap to sell. I'd rather wait 2 more years and sell above $100k than do it at $80k, but for people who bought at $100k and bitcoin is just a number on a spreadsheet, that feels completely different.

My average price is in the 4 digits range so anything in the 5 digits is already expensive to buy for me, but of course that's only one way to see things.

I didn't sell anything above 100K (or above 50K for that matter) so I don't have money earned with corn to buy more corn, I figured long ago that I was too bad at trading.
So I'm only considering buying a chunk with fiat earned the old way, by having a job :p

Looking at your average cost and your profits tends to be a bad way to valuate your bitcoin stash.

Instead a better way to valuate relates to whether you have enough or more than enough.

For sure, if you had been buying bitcoin in the 4 digits, then now days you are not going to get as many cornz for the dollar as you were able to get in earlier times.

Difficult to know how to solve any dilemma that you might be feeling, since many of us should realize when BTC prices are close to the 200-WMA then likely prices are relatively cheap.

So at the low from yesterday we dipped slightly below $60k, which would have had been less than 3.5% from the 200-WMA (which is currently at $58k).. and so now we are back to nearly 20% above the 200-WMA with our prices bouncing around $69.5k.

Who knows? who knows about the current recovery and if we are merely being faked out or if we might be able to get a bit of distance between the BTC price and our current local bottom?

[philipma1957]

Yeah could be. Well I got a lot of corn in the 61-68k range yesterday. so 69k looks good to me.

This does help the quest to get to 2 coins by Dec 31. 2026

It also still could bitch slap OgNasty and all those that bet against JJG. (note jjg did not bet og as far as I know)

or not.  I rather be sitting on the side of the bet against JJG but as we all know honey badger does not give a shit or care.



If this is the end of the crash and onwards and upwards it would be nice.  Time will tell.


og says 4 year cycles

and to be correct he needs us to not do an ATH this year so he could be wrong.

as for 127k by April 1 there are 53? days left. So we will see.

[xhomerx10]

So mempool is empty again, panic selling from little girlies running around in circles while screaming stopped. (props to vapourminer for bringing that image to my mind that I can't obviously unsee any more).
Was fun while it lasted.

What's next now, a boring new war, Aliens, AGI, el cheffe naranja uttering something smart - or maybe (one can still hope) a zombie apocalypse?

Exactly what I signed up for, even it hit me hard as I missed the time to put sufficiently shitcoin aside (fiat) near the top - but what would BTC be without the rollercoaster vibe?

Also: 新年快乐!

Happy new year to you


"The Year of the Fire Horse begins on February 17, 2026

(with solar, or Li Chun, starting Feb 3), bringing a rare 60-year cycle of intense, passionate, and fast-paced energy."

this is from google Ai

 Is this the same Blazing Steed from Bejeweled Blitz?  When is the year of the Phoenix Prism?  That's what I'm looking forward too.

[cAPSLOCK]

the climb back?

Hush your mouth. You know that's jinxy talk!

(Pay no attention to him Bitcoin!)

[cAPSLOCK]

the climb back?

Time to post trains?

I got you, fam.

[AlcoHoDL]

2012 (halving) ---> end of 2013 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Nov. 2013 @ $1,163)

...add 4 years:

2016 (halving) ---> end of 2017 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Dec. 2017 @ $19,666)

...add 4 years:

2020 (halving) ---> end of 2021 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Nov. 2021 @ $69,000)

...add 4 years:

2024 (halving) ---> end of 2025 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Oct. 2025 @ $126,272)

...add 4 years:

2028 (halving) ---> end of 2029 (ATH)   Projected

...

Bitstamp prices.

Can it be any clearer? The 4-year cycles do exist, as demonstrated above in full glory. This is undeniable.

I think we are in for the usual (predictable and expected) cycle winter, until 2028 (halving) ---> end of 2029 (ATH).

Gold/silver, politics, wars, pandemics, they just add noise, but do not break the pattern.

Buy/HoDL if you can, spend some if you want/must, enjoy life (that should be the goal).

This is fine.

No...this is an over-simplification. No cycle is guaranteed...all these 2029 projections are unreliable.
It could turn around in 2 months or it could stay down for 3 years.
The cycle cannot exist because there is not enough daily btc issuance vs trading volume, can't you see this?

Additionally, the math of diminishing returns, but very slowly decreasing % of plunges suggests the demise of the asset-can't you "math it"?
Run the numbers. It's either no cycles and growth or f-g cycles and an almost assured demise.

No rationality except of looking backwards.
Examples: Ben Cowen (the silliest analyst ever), Ognasty, Ivan on tech, etc.
Prediction: down you'll go (in your analysis) when btc shows something new and relatively soonish.

Adding to my earlier reply:

The existence of cycles does not equal diminishing returns or the demise of Bitcoin. Equating cycles with the demise of Bitcoin is a distorted interpretation of cycles. In my view, 4-year cycles are more about time (hence their name), and less about value. I.e., the next cycle ATH may well occur in 2029 or thereabouts (as projected), but its value could well be much higher than the past (2013, 2017, 2021, 2025) ATH price progression. If you re-read my post above, nowhere did I predict a price for the next ATH. All I gave was the projected time of the next cycle ATH, based on historical cycle ATH times of the past 14 years.

In my view, the fact (and it's a hard fact, deeply embedded in Bitcoin's design) that Bitcoin production is reduced by half every 4 years, necessitates the existence of 4-year cycles. It just can't happen any other way. Cutting production of Bitcoin (or, indeed, of anything) by half is too large of a step change to not have an effect on price, that has to be in sync with the halving time (every 4 years!).

Sure, something very positive could happen to Bitcoin, and very likely will happen, and I hope it happens soon, that will push the price very high, even in the $millions. But, in my opinion, and considering the way Bitcoin works at the technical/algorithmic level, the 4-year cycles will still be there, ever present, and a direct result of the halving of Bitcoin production every 4 years. Math & science!

Well...you claim continued cycles (in price), but then say that diminishing returns and VERY slowing % of plunges do not count, but they WERE part of the cycles.
I am not sure that you can have cycles and NOT have those two parameters at play.
The proper solution is to NOT have cycles. The issuance is already small enough to basically ignore for all market participants, excluding actual miners.
As of now, cycle exist only in the heads of bitcoiners, really.

I think the times of occurrence of the next couple of ATHs will confirm or deny your last statement. If cycles are still significant, we shall see the next big ATH in 2029, followed by another one in 2033.

Of course cycles affect price -- both time and price parameters are interlinked. What I'm saying, as indicated by the data I posted, is that cycles are more useful in estimating the time of occurrence of a cycle ATH, rather than the specific price value of an ATH.

Time will tell. I just find it extremely significant that, since 2012 (for the last 14 years), every cycle ATH without exception has occurred the year following the halving year, accurate to within +/- one month! Just look at the data I posted in my original post above. 4 halvings, 4 ATHs, all precisely in sync with each other.

Their significance is decreasing due to the reward being halved, but this is counteracted by Bitcoin price increasing during the cycle. Overall, their effect is gradually reduced, as mining incentive shifts from rewards to fees. But, how long until they become insignificant? Are we there yet? I don't think so. Will the upcoming ATHs maintain the 4-year cycle pattern? We'll all be here to observe and discuss.

In any case, most of us here are not traders, but HoDLers, so the above doesn't really matter much in a practical sense. It surely won't affect my buying or selling decisions. I'm just reporting an observation that I find interesting. When zoomed far out, it's going up forever, and that's what matters.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Lucius]

Bitcoin down 40% with 1 week RSI already on a oversold base when it usually did after 80% drop.

Situation is different as a standard bull and bear market.

Massive bear trap.

It must be admitted that they did it very well - we haven't seen a crash like that in a long time. Now they are laughing and have already filled their bags with cheap coins. Fortunately for us who know how these things work, the only thing that has changed is that we have more sats in our wallets than two days ago.