[edited out]
Well if you are at 5000 a coin and have 20 or more coins it is easy to sell 1 at 120,000.
But if you are at 5000 a coin and have 2 coins it is hard to sell at 120,000
You are not exactly the best of role models in terms of giving guidance about how to manage your coins.... perhaps your even suggesting that it is easy to just shave off 5% of your coins tends to show difficulties you have in seeing that those kinds of ongoing shaving off of coins tends to be problematic for maintaining a sufficient BTC stash.
By the way, from my own perspective, once a guy reaches overaccumulation status then surly selling anything like 5% to 10% of the stash upon each doubling of the price would be considered a reasonable price based sustainable withdrawal method... yet one of the questions concern whether or not 20 BTC would be considered overaccumulation status...
Right now 20 BTC has a 200-WMA value of $1.16 million and a spot price of close to $1.4 million. So base on the 200-WMA valuation, I personally think that 20 BTC could support a forever and ever and ever withdrawal of $116k per year with a 7% increase each year (even though right now the BTC spot price is lower than 25% above the 200-WMA so I consider it prudent to reduce the withdrawal rate if withdrawals were to be made now).. In any event, for a lot of normies 20 BTC would not be a bad amount of bitcoin to have right now - including if the intent were to be to start to live off of it in a sustainable way.
By the way Phil, it is my perspective if the guy immediately sold 1 BTC (so then he had $69.5k in cash), with
his remaining 19 bitcoin, he could withdraw right around $7.8k per month (right now the tool) showing a reduced rate of 85%, even though he should be able to get back to a total that adds up to $110k per year once the BTC price resumes above 25% above the 200-WMA. .
[edited out]
I'm between those 2 ah ah.
When your stash is worth several millions I guess it's easier to shave a bit but I didn't get to that point yet.
I understand that people want to make sure that they have enough or more than enough to begin their withdrawal, and I also realize that even if you were to use my tool (that Bitmover constructed), then you may well want to error on the side of conservative numbers in order to make sure that your rate is sustainable. .and so if you were ONLY to halve around half of the upper number that Phil mentioned, then you might feel that half is not enough.. and you also need a bit more of a cushion to feel comfortable before you were to transition between working and fuck you status, if fuck you status might be your goal where you were to live off of your bitcoin... yet surely the amount of coin you need continues to go down, as you can see in
my fuck you status chart (the principle still applies even though my numbers in that chart need to be adjusted a bit down).
[edited out]
Well...you claim continued cycles (in price), but then say that diminishing returns and VERY slowing % of plunges do not count, but they WERE part of the cycles.
I am not sure that you can have cycles and NOT have those two parameters at play.
The proper solution is to NOT have cycles. The issuance is already small enough to basically ignore for all market participants,
excluding actual miners.Miners are people too. (they count)
As of now, cycle exist only in the heads of bitcoiners, really.
Miners are bitcoiners too (they count)..
Yeah could be. Well I got a lot of corn in the 61-68k range yesterday. so 69k looks good to me.
You must be really tempted to sell some...
This does help the quest to get to 2 coins by Dec 31. 2026
It also still could bitch slap OgNasty and all those that bet against JJG. (note jjg did not bet og as far as I know)
Why? Weren't they essentially correct?
We had quite the amazing set of drops.. not ONLY the drop below $100k but our drop from yesterday brought us within about 3.5% of the 200-WMA.. Such proximity of the BTC pride to the 200-WMA usually ONLY happens in bear season... and so that also puts some decent questions in front of us in regards to where we are at and where we might be going (hopefully we know from where we came, yet even that might not be agreed upon by some of "us" sometimes disagreeable folks)
or not. I rather be sitting on the side of the bet against JJG but as we all know honey badger does not give a shit or care.
There are some guys who still consider chances for a quick and violent rebound to be quite high, and I might even be overly optimistic if I am putting odds at most at 5%.
If this is the end of the crash and onwards and upwards it would be nice. Time will tell.
og says 4 year cycles
Yeah but OG? Really?
and to be correct he needs us to not do an ATH this year so he could be wrong.
OG is not constrained by such limitations. He is going to be correct no matter what ends up happening (at least in his sometimes coherent yet mostly delusional head).
as for 127k by April 1 there are 53? days left. So we will see.
ATH is $126,272 on dee Stamps.. so $127k is not needed in order for an ATH to be reached, meaning to win.
[edited out]
Will the upcoming ATHs maintain the 4-year cycle pattern? We'll all be here to observe and discuss.
God willing.
In any case, most of us here are not traders, but HoDLers, so the above doesn't really matter much in a practical sense.
I think that many of us might dabble in shitcoins and/or trading, yet it tends to be a minority part of what most guys do in these here parts, so in that sense we are mostly erroring on the side of accumulating and holding - while at the same time, guys are at different points in their journey.. so we likely cannot just aim our discussion at guys who have been through more than a whole cycle.
It surely won't affect my buying or selling decisions. I'm just reporting an observation that I find interesting. When zoomed far out, it's going up forever, and that's what matters.
You consider that all of these various paper bitcoin attacks are going to end up having to bow to the hardness of the king?
Not only do we have paper bitcoin attacks, we also have the various pussy ass cooptation attacks - that include dollarization through stable coins, which are largely privatized CBDCs.
I understand that some of those various attacks will end up failing based on their failure/refuseness to recognize/appreciate dee cornz for its math and science characteristics... so yeah, ignore the physical attributes of the real world to your peril.. .but still bitcoin cannot be completely pure maths and science because it is also connected to humans in various ways.. so I have problems with focuses that end up completely ignoring and/or downplaying the human action elements of bitcoin. I used to spend a lot of time objecting to what I learned about economics based on similar ongoing concerns that I had in my college days.
Bitcoin down 40% with 1 week RSI already on a oversold base when it usually did after 80% drop.
Situation is different as a standard bull and bear market.
Massive bear trap.
It must be admitted that they did it very well - we haven't seen a crash like that in a long time. Now they are laughing and have already filled their bags with cheap coins. Fortunately for us who know how these things work, the only thing that has changed is that we have more sats in our wallets than two days ago.
I used my time during the dumo telling people not to sell their coin but they continue to panic. I do not think it helped.
I think soon we will see a lot of bitter panic sellers posting topics on how crypto is all a bubble/ponzi/whatever...
Yeah, but the diptwat bear manipulators are not playing by the same rules as normies.
Largely they are using paper bitcoin to push the price down and they are buying back actual bitcoin.
Sure it is possible that some of them might end up blowing themselves up or getting on the wrong side of such trades.. yet they tend to both have themselves covered and they also have controls over various exchanges, too...
Poll
