Most trading individuals are on a simplistic side..."it would do what it has always done: -70-80%".
I wonder if bitcoin is capable of behaving in a contrarian fashion, because the "consensus" of cyclists is 29-38K (-77 to -70%).
To me, this would be a test of bitcoin's ability to do something unexpected.
I surely wouldn't touch it with new buys at 29K as miners would be severely damaged, imho, and the whole "store of value" concept would be jeopardized as well since there is no FTX excuse this time.
The excuse is "gold"
Central banks are bidding it up with fake fiat and rubes have rushed in for the leftover shavings.
Of course, CBs would never actually move to hard money due to "modern" printing and control requirements.
There's implied narrative competition for bitcoin, even though it's just a distraction: possibly by design?
Edit:
Continuing down the slope of diminishing declines would put the final wick between 71% ($36624) and 74% ($32830)...however it's doubtful we get there; agree the investment thesis is badly injured slipping that far with a mere 80% cyclical ATH improvement over 4 years. The implication is `29 would then yield a meteoric top in the realm of 170-180k
I am not going to proclaim that "anything is not possible," yet it is difficult to imagine that our lows from this time around would be lower than the 2022 lows that were related to the FTX, et al, blow up. Think about it, the maximum drop from 2022 was $15,479 (I think was on November 10), which was then right around 35% below the then 200 WMA. Right now the 200-WMA is currently at $58,350, and so a 35% would be $38k, even though the 200-WMA continues to go up around $20-ish each day, which would make it quite shocking to even touch upon $40k in regards to the worstest of scenarios...
At this time, based on known information, I would likely enter a bet with anyone who wants to proclaim that we are going below $40k in this calendar year... of course using Stamp as the measure.
Anyone?
Anyone?
Over and out on this topic.-
Encore
Encore
Encore
Play it again, Sam.
I'm now in spending/enjoyment mode. Now and for the foreseeable future (I hope).
What about buying the dip?
What about waiting until greater than $110k prices?
One last cAPSLOP note.
Don't give up!!!!!!!!
"We" are here suffering with you.
I have been worried about the institutional influences on Bitcoin ever since the first futures were made available.
But I would also argue along along the way that Bitcoin is designed in a way that it's not compatible with the type of manipulation that is necessary to control it in a Charlie Munger type of way.
So, in the end, if Bitcoin can be controlled, neutered or possibly even destroyed by the powers that be, it will not be Bitcoin's/Satoshis fault, but it will be the fault of its users, 100%.
And I don't even fully agree with those who make the case that unless Bitcoin is used transactionally, it will fail. I think there is a pieces out of order and/or missing from that idea. Because Bitcoin can be used as money before it is used commonly, transactionally. That use case is as a store of value. And then we will see it being used transactionally first in places who need that. This is exactly where the "you are here star" is on the map.
But human beings really only care about one thing and that is that they can have more dollars in the end. And therefore, they are going straight for the paper bitcoin.
And though there is nothing wrong with protecting your value by investing in speculative assets, if it becomes possible for the institutional powers to fully transform Bitcoin into only a speculative asset as many of them claim it only is...
BITCOIN WILL HAVE FAILED BECAUSE NOT ENOUGH PEOPLE UNDERSTOOD WHY CUSTODY IS CRITICAL, AND LEFT IT ON EXCHANGES OR RELEGATED CUSTODY TO THIRD PARTIES OUT OF PURE CONVENIENCE. (ETFs)
Well normies are putting and leaving coins on third party platforms and failing/refusing to learn and exercise self-custody because various incentives and barriers have been put in place that are sufficient enough to screw people up in terms of where there incentives are versus where they should be.
Bitcoin won't likely completely die, but it's power and use cases have been (and are) being interfered with in ways that continue to be quite frustrating to witness.
(that said, I believe it's going to be much harder to kill than people think since custody will end up being understandable by enough people in the end... But if we have to learn this the hard way (and it seems we do as usual), it may take time. Oh well.)
Well. It is the world-wide aspect of bitcoin that will potentially somewhat rescue it from being completely coopted.
Biodom, I think you're over-analyzing it.
He has reached stage 3, or the bargaining stage. This is a positive development as I didn’t appreciate his initial denial about the four year cycle or the anger that followed seemingly pointed in my direction for predicting this market collapse. The tough part will be holding through the next stage without being forced to sell at the bottom, but then comes acceptance of the four year cycle and we can kick off a new bull market.
I am sorry, but your "prediction" is child's play.
Typically, markets don't follow "children's" wishes.
Hahahaha.. Exactly correct. OgNasty made a guess that might have had 50/50 odds of getting correct.., and he presumes his lil selfie as a genius because he happened to have had guessed correctly (so far).
However, please point me to a line in bitcoin code that says that it has to go down 70-80% every f-g time despite not rising as vigorously as in the prior cycle as per the "pattern" that you and others espouse so vigorously.
Above is what basically it comes down to as ALL other parameters/rules were already violated.
Imho, this one would be violated as well, either on the upside or downside.
You might not buy and it rips up (and 60 or about was the low) or you may smugly buy at 40 and it goes to 15.
What then?
I don't like your scenario of "it going to $15k." That does not sound good.
Poll
