Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[xhomerx10]

I now 100% mine alone at a host.

Those who can... can...

How many years have you been in the mining industry? What year did you start?

 ...and those who cancan

 

[xhomerx10]

My 2c about Michael Saylor.

Looking at his brazen buys lately, I could not escape thinking about a possibility that some truly big money is backing him now.

Uncle Sam Fiat has been backing his ass since the 90s. It's the accumulation acceleration that's interesting- which hints at something. A motive, forthcoming maneuver, a strategy?

 Whatever the strategy, you can rest assured it will be puny... microscopic even.

[philipma1957]

Also bottom isn't in yet imo since this is wo I gotta throw in some light speculation for my first post here.

You sound lost if you are proclaiming down in these here parts (as a newbie) without giving a rationale besides perhaps the underlying presumption that since you are a newbie that you still need to buy more coin, to the extent that you already have some corn and you are not merely an observer without and stake in the game.  

Hopefully, for your own good, you are ongoingly stacking instead of waiting for down that might not end up happening.

Yes, I have been stacking weekly since the downtrend from 120k. I'm happy with the stack I have, but it could be much better so this dip is awesome.

I guess you could say that my rationale for the bottom not being in is just a firm belief in cycles. If I'm not mistaken, cycle logic dictates we don't see a bottom until around October. Even though I'm a believer in cycles, I still refuse to swing trade/sell everything at tops and buy it all back at bottoms. That's way too much stress for me and putting faith in something stupid not happening like these "supercycles" people started talking about...no thank you, haha. Bitcoin is way undervalued and super early. I would hate myself forever if I made a bad swing trade and lost ~90% of my "corn" as you would say, no matter how set in stone people say 4 year cycles are.

I'm much more content selling only the littlest portion of my full stack at tops to increase my quality of life ever so slightly as I see fit. I sold some to make having my firstborn child a little easier on me and my wife.

I'm no speculation expert though, I just read the room on websites like this one and r/btc(grain of salt).

The room is telling me that the stock market is heavily overvalued and circular funding is occuring and oil just saw a major uppity in price because war and stuff. So when/if it crashes/corrects like it did in most other recessions where oil saw a spike in price, bitcoin will experience collateral damage in price. Will that event (if it were to happen) coincide with the 4 year cycle? No crystal ball so idk.

A 4 year price cycle believer ugh

[philipma1957]

I now 100% mine alone at a host.

Those who can... can...

How many years have you been in the mining industry? What year did you start?

2012

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

A 4 year price cycle believer ugh

A real life 4-year cycle denier. Even in the face of such repeated miracles and with the scripture written in code.

Those who believe have been and will continue to be blessed. There is no reason to resist the truth my friend. Embrace it and free yourself from the shackles of desire.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

A 4 year price cycle believer ugh

A real life 4-year cycle denier. Even in the face of such repeated miracles and with the scripture written in code.

Those who believe have been and will continue to be blessed. There is no reason to resist the truth my friend. Embrace it and free yourself from the shackles of desire.

I think that you might want to learn the word "humility"...what we all see instead, is an endless hubris.
We'll see how that kindergarten style belief will work out in the future.
Good luck.

EDIT: here is what 4 year cyclists say- a "cycle" peak in September 2029, then a peak in August 2033, then July 2037. How about a bet that it won't happen this way?
You'll have to score 3 out of 3, and if not, I win (and collect at the first miss) and if it would be 3 out of 3, then you win. Name a reasonable prize value.

[Lucius]

For those who like matrix and live price tracker they will definitely like it -> https://mybtc.world/bitcoin-price/

Here is the topic -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5577147

[OgNasty]

A 4 year price cycle believer ugh

A real life 4-year cycle denier. Even in the face of such repeated miracles and with the scripture written in code.

Those who believe have been and will continue to be blessed. There is no reason to resist the truth my friend. Embrace it and free yourself from the shackles of desire.

I think that you might want to learn the word "humility"...what we all see instead, is an endless hubris.
We'll see how that kindergarten style belief will work out in the future.
Good luck.

EDIT: here is what 4 year cyclists say- a "cycle" peak in September 2029, then a peak in August 2033, then July 2037. How about a bet that it won't happen this way?
You'll have to score 3 out of 3, and if not, I win (and collect at the first miss) and if it would be 3 out of 3, then you win. Name a reasonable prize value.

You seem to think I have something to prove to you. I don’t. You also seem to think I need to gamble with you for money. I don’t. As stated, I made my 7 figure bet properly, with the market, at the top. I do like that you are clearly transitioning from the anger to bargaining stage. Next you will become depressed by the price action, but don’t worry. Once you get through that and accept that I was right, the bottom will be in and we will have our bull market.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

A 4 year price cycle believer ugh

A real life 4-year cycle denier. Even in the face of such repeated miracles and with the scripture written in code.

Those who believe have been and will continue to be blessed. There is no reason to resist the truth my friend. Embrace it and free yourself from the shackles of desire.

I think that you might want to learn the word "humility"...what we all see instead, is an endless hubris.
We'll see how that kindergarten style belief will work out in the future.
Good luck.

EDIT: here is what 4 year cyclists say- a "cycle" peak in September 2029, then a peak in August 2033, then July 2037. How about a bet that it won't happen this way?
You'll have to score 3 out of 3, and if not, I win (and collect at the first miss) and if it would be 3 out of 3, then you win. Name a reasonable prize value.

You seem to think I have something to prove to you. I don’t. You also seem to think I need to gamble with you for money. I don’t. As stated, I made my 7 figure bet properly, with the market, at the top. I do like that you are clearly transitioning from the anger to bargaining stage. Next you will become depressed by the price action, but don’t worry. Once you get through that and accept that I was right, the bottom will be in and we will have our bull market.

I just don't give a high probability to a hypothesis that your "belief system" could continue to be correct as there is absolutely nothing material that supports it.
Cycles are going away, that's just almost a mathematical certainty, unless we truly live in a simulation and it is all preordained, but then we wouldn't have free will which we apparently have.
Regarding "depressed", I wouldn't be at 30K or 37-38K, so it is mostly academic.
I would be sad if bitcoin completely vanishes, but it is not in the "cycles" afaik  .

[Hueristic]

A 4 year price cycle believer ugh

A real life 4-year cycle denier. Even in the face of such repeated miracles and with the scripture written in code.

Those who believe have been and will continue to be blessed. There is no reason to resist the truth my friend. Embrace it and free yourself from the shackles of desire.

The scripture is written in code, the crux is when the market 4 year cycle dies and no-one knows that answer.

When the emission becomes low enough not to effect the market is not only economic but psychological and cannot be defined in the code.

"Once a predetermined number of coins have entered circulation, the incentive can transition entirely to transaction fees and be completely inflation free."

"In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes."

 "Instead of the supply changing to keep the value the same, the supply is predetermined and the value changes. As the number of users grows, the value per coin increases."

"The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more. At the same time, the increased production would increase the difficulty, pushing the cost of generating towards the price."

[Biodom]

A 4 year price cycle believer ugh

A real life 4-year cycle denier. Even in the face of such repeated miracles and with the scripture written in code.

Those who believe have been and will continue to be blessed. There is no reason to resist the truth my friend. Embrace it and free yourself from the shackles of desire.

The scripture is written in code, the crux is when the market 4 year cycle dies and no-one knows that answer.

When the emission becomes low enough not to effect the market is not only economic but psychological and cannot be defined in the code.

"Once a predetermined number of coins have entered circulation, the incentive can transition entirely to transaction fees and be completely inflation free."

"In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes."

 "Instead of the supply changing to keep the value the same, the supply is predetermined and the value changes. As the number of users grows, the value per coin increases."

"The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more. At the same time, the increased production would increase the difficulty, pushing the cost of generating towards the price."

yeah, he said all that, but such transition remains to be seen...for now, block rewards are still the major compensation venue with miners getting somewhat restless because their "real" cost is currently above the cost of production (which is around 80K afaik). Pure electricity cost was 58K recently, but they have other costs (miners, personnel, buildings, etc). This suggests that we went only about 50% above the cost of production this time around, which is kind of low, but if we mean revert to $80-82K, this is what a "natural" price of bitcoin could be for now (without adjusting for both oil price increase and difficulty dropping, which should work in reverse to eliminate both these factors for now).

Here is the value of tx fees graph as a percentage of rewards:
https://charts.bitbo.io/fees-percent-of-reward/

Nothing major is happening, yet.

EDIT: here is the podcast discussing the four year cycle...these guys seem to content that they are continuing..just to balance my views with these:
https://youtu.be/byk3W3Xpn4k?t=1273

[philipma1957]

A 4 year price cycle believer ugh

A real life 4-year cycle denier. Even in the face of such repeated miracles and with the scripture written in code.

Those who believe have been and will continue to be blessed. There is no reason to resist the truth my friend. Embrace it and free yourself from the shackles of desire.

The scripture is written in code, the crux is when the market 4 year cycle dies and no-one knows that answer.

When the emission becomes low enough not to effect the market is not only economic but psychological and cannot be defined in the code.

"Once a predetermined number of coins have entered circulation, the incentive can transition entirely to transaction fees and be completely inflation free."

"In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes."

 "Instead of the supply changing to keep the value the same, the supply is predetermined and the value changes. As the number of users grows, the value per coin increases."

"The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more. At the same time, the increased production would increase the difficulty, pushing the cost of generating towards the price."

yeah, he said all that, but such transition remains to be seen...for now, block rewards are still the major compensation venue with miners getting restless somehwat because their "real" cost is currently above the cost of production (which is around 80K afaik). Pure electricity cost was 58K recently, but they have other costs (miners, personnel, buildings, etc).
Here is the value of tx fees graph as a percentage of rewards:
https://charts.bitbo.io/fees-percent-of-reward/

Nothing major is happening, yet.

Hash rate/ difficulty is down from nov high of 155t to around 144t

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ESG]

$328M Crypto Ponzi Lawsuit Accuses JPMorgan of Enabling Goliath Scheme

JPMorgan is getting sued for allegedly enabling a $328M crypto Ponzi scheme
 by processing millions in deposits for Goliath Ventures.

A class action lawsuit has been filed against JPMorgan Chase, accusing the bank of facilitating a massive cryptocurrency Ponzi scheme. The scheme, led by Goliath Ventures, allegedly defrauded over 2,000 investors out of $328 million. The lawsuit claims that JPMorgan provided critical banking services that enabled the scheme to operate.
Investors were told that their funds would be used for cryptocurrency trading strategies and digital asset arbitrage. However, prosecutors argue that the operation was a classic Ponzi scheme where new investor funds were used to pay earlier investors.
...

...of the same ones who did not get on the boat
that sank with most of the competitors

[OutOfMemory]

Finally got to Good Luck Have Fun Dont Die , was a good flick.

I am actually so waiting for this movie for months now. Due to start tomorrow in european cinemas