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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26943524 times)
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March 12, 2026, 06:41:02 PM
Merited by OgNasty (1)

A real life 4-year cycle denier. Even in the face of such repeated miracles and with the scripture written in code.

Those who believe have been and will continue to be blessed. There is no reason to resist the truth my friend. Embrace it and free yourself from the shackles of desire.

There is no reason to deny the 4 year cycle, if its repeating itself at least till date.
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March 12, 2026, 07:01:14 PM


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March 12, 2026, 07:14:26 PM

Also bottom isn't in yet imo since this is wo I gotta throw in some light speculation for my first post here.
You sound lost if you are proclaiming down in these here parts (as a newbie) without giving a rationale besides perhaps the underlying presumption that since you are a newbie that you still need to buy more coin, to the extent that you already have some corn and you are not merely an observer without and stake in the game.  

Hopefully, for your own good, you are ongoingly stacking instead of waiting for down that might not end up happening.
Yes, I have been stacking weekly since the downtrend from 120k. I'm happy with the stack I have, but it could be much better so this dip is awesome.

I guess you could say that my rationale for the bottom not being in is just a firm belief in cycles. If I'm not mistaken, cycle logic dictates we don't see a bottom until around October. Even though I'm a believer in cycles, I still refuse to swing trade/sell everything at tops and buy it all back at bottoms.

You are suggesting that you are new to bitcoin, since you are not proclaiming to have had been buying bitcoin prior to your forum registration date, yet you are convinced by some stupid ass cycle theory in regards to where the bitcoin price is going to go from here.. so then that means that you are holding back on your BTC buys with expectations to inject more value into bitcoin when the "time" comes?  Sounds a bit ridiculous.

Also your proclamations about not being a trader contradicts your other implication that you have been buying since $120k.... since if you were going to even have an ability to sell at or near the top and then hope to buy back cheaper, then you would have had bought at lower prices before the top came.. since it makes little sense to sell lower than your buy price with an expectation of buying back cheaper, even though traders do all kinds of dumb shit that sometimes still ends up paying off.

That's way too much stress for me and putting faith in something stupid not happening like these "supercycles" people started talking about...no thank you, haha.

So you are putting more energy into preparing for down rather than preparing for up that might or might not happen (from your perspective?).
 
Bitcoin is way undervalued and super early. I would hate myself forever if I made a bad swing trade and lost ~90% of my "corn" as you would say, no matter how set in stone people say 4 year cycles are.

Now you are hedging?  You strongly believe in the 4-year cycle, but at the same time you are wanting to say that the 4-year cycle might be wrong?

So what does that mean?  You are partially waiting for a bottom in October, yet at the same time, you are supposedly prepared for the case that it might not happen?

You are waffling.  Just admit that you don't know shit.  At least, then you might be at least attempting to deal with the real world rather than some fantasy in which you can say both things at the same time.

I'm much more content selling only the littlest portion of my full stack at tops to increase my quality of life ever so slightly as I see fit.

So you have a stack that you started to accumulate prior to October 2025?  You seem to be trying to act as if you are some kind of a BIG baller.  "We" have certainly seen newbies coming to the thread an acting like that - even experienced members come here and try to imply that they have some kind of a meaningful bitcoin stack, yet there stories tend to not really add up.  Hopefully you are not another one of those.

But, hey, whatever, you can be whoever you like.   This forum tends to have a certain amount of liberty for guys to post quite a variety of matters, even if they might not completely conform with reality.. it is not like we can really verify if you might be taking your claims a wee bit far.

I sold some to make having my firstborn child a little easier on me and my wife.

Of course, how we manage our funds might be based on our prior actions, and there could be situations where it makes sense to sell some corn.... whether you had invested too much at an earlier time or maybe if you had not kept enough various back up funds. 
 
I'm no speculation expert though, I just read the room on websites like this one and r/btc(grain of salt).

The room is telling me that the stock market is heavily overvalued and circular funding is occuring and oil just saw a major uppity in price because war and stuff. So when/if it crashes/corrects like it did in most other recessions where oil saw a spike in price, bitcoin will experience collateral damage in price. Will that event (if it were to happen) coincide with the 4 year cycle? No crystal ball so idk.

Sure, there are a variety of macro events that could affect bitcoin's price in either direction in terms of both liquidity that might be available in the future, yet also the extent to which bitcoin might be considered a risk on asset or a risk off asset by the market, and the extent to which you choose to hold value back in case there might be a future dip versus if you just ongoingly are buying bitcoin is within your discretion, and also within your circumstances to the extent that you either have income coming in on an ongoing basis and/or the extent that you might own other assets besides bitcoin.

A 4 year price cycle believer ugh
A real life 4-year cycle denier. Even in the face of such repeated miracles and with the scripture written in code.

Those who believe have been and will continue to be blessed. There is no reason to resist the truth my friend. Embrace it and free yourself from the shackles of desire.
I think that you might want to learn the word "humility"...what we all see instead, is an endless hubris.
We'll see how that kindergarten style belief will work out in the future.
Good luck.
EDIT: here is what 4 year cyclists say- a "cycle" peak in September 2029, then a peak in August 2033, then July 2037. How about a bet that it won't happen this way?
You'll have to score 3 out of 3, and if not, I win (and collect at the first miss) and if it would be 3 out of 3, then you win. Name a reasonable prize value.

That would be a crazy-ass bet if something like that could be agreed upon, and surely drawn out in terms of a timeline.

Furthermore, part of the utility of cycle theory in the ways that OgNasty seems to be proclaiming to be so financially advantage involves identifying both tops and bottoms.. which OgNasty proclaims that he did not realize the actual existence of such cycle until around 2018 and perhaps even later. 

At the same time, even though he fucked up quite a bit in 2017 by selling way too much too soon, he still retains his own self-perception of being a financial expert for 28 years, and a bitcoin expert since 2011... even though he only has around 20 coins rather than the more than 200 that he should have had if he had accumulated and hung onto his coins instead of fucking around trying to trade..

yet, for sure OgNasty is still smarter than the rest of us dummies who are active in this thread, and even his having had supposedly sold most if not all of his 20 coins in this last price run, may well end up with way less than 20, if he does not end up buying them back. .since besides his lack of humility, he seems to be a bit of a greedy ass fuck too.. hahahahaha.
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March 12, 2026, 07:25:11 PM

yet, for sure OgNasty is still smarter than the rest of us dummies who are active in this thread, and even his having had supposedly sold most if not all of his 20 coins in this last price run, may well end up with way less than 20, if he does not end up buying them back. .since besides his lack of humility, he seems to be a bit of a greedy ass fuck too.. hahahahaha.

Why do you pretend you know how much BTC I have?

Why do you sell 4% of your stack every year?

Why don’t you do ANYTHING to support Bitcoin?

You are a leech. A flea dangling from the nuts of Bitcoiners like myself. Clinging for dear life in the hopes you can sell Bitcoin like a market parasite the rest of your life to support yourself. You are pathetic and a negative addition to Bitcoin. You should honestly be ashamed to post here.
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March 12, 2026, 07:47:57 PM

Sortino ratio is showing that corn is somehow at the bottom.


Someone should make a website that keeps track of all these at the same time. I've not seen this ratio before, thank you.

You are a leech. A flea dangling from the nuts of Bitcoiners like myself. Clinging for dear life in the hopes you can sell Bitcoin like a market parasite the rest of your life to support yourself. You are pathetic and a negative addition to Bitcoin. You should honestly be ashamed to post here.
Take it a notch down, no wonder she left you I mean you got divorced.
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March 12, 2026, 08:01:15 PM


Explanation
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March 12, 2026, 08:01:17 PM
Last edit: March 12, 2026, 09:26:47 PM by BTCETFInvestor

yet, for sure OgNasty is still smarter than the rest of us dummies who are active in this thread, and even his having had supposedly sold most if not all of his 20 coins in this last price run, may well end up with way less than 20, if he does not end up buying them back. .since besides his lack of humility, he seems to be a bit of a greedy ass fuck too.. hahahahaha.

Why do you pretend you know how much BTC I have?

Why do you sell 4% of your stack every year?

Why don’t you do ANYTHING to support Bitcoin?

You are a leech. A flea dangling from the nuts of Bitcoiners like myself. Clinging for dear life in the hopes you can sell Bitcoin like a market parasite the rest of your life to support yourself. You are pathetic and a negative addition to Bitcoin. You should honestly be ashamed to post here.

Pow! That was pure Central Casting!

That was like dragging JJG behind your Tesla Cybertruck!  Grin



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March 12, 2026, 09:01:17 PM


Explanation
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March 12, 2026, 09:31:33 PM
Merited by Biodom (1)

I should be clear about my thoughts on the 4 year cycle.

Yes less block size= true
Yes price goes up when blocks half=true

Crypto winter every four years = false

So OgN is correct in 2 out of 3 case.

There is no reason for btc price retreat bears whatever to happen on a repeating 4 year cycle.


This is my position and I do not need to trade or bet on it.

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March 12, 2026, 09:42:29 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Biodom (1)

[edited out]
Regarding "depressed", I wouldn't be at 30K or 37-38K, so it is mostly academic.
I would be sad if bitcoin completely vanishes, but it is not in the "cycles" afaik  Wink.

I would likely start to get a bit depressed if we go below $45k, and maybe even getting wee bit depressed earlier than that, even though I would still be in 45x profits (more or less).

I would think that my 45x in profits (if we end up going there?) is likely way better than OgNasty's ability to buy back for 1/2 price or even 1/4 price, even if he were able to achieve such a feat... which is probably in his imagination, alone (absent his inclinations to spin and exaggerate, which he is quite inclined to engage in those behaviors and he even seems to persuade a few gullible folks in regards to his supposed self-proclaimed BIG BALLER status)..

And, gosh, a world without bitcoin, as if it were to go to zero:  That would be difficult to imagine.  There would be quite a few depressed peeps that would come out of such a development, and surely wondering the implications of such an outrageous outcome were such a thing actually play out or be able to play out.

yet, for sure OgNasty is still smarter than the rest of us dummies who are active in this thread, and even his having had supposedly sold most if not all of his 20 coins in this last price run, may well end up with way less than 20, if he does not end up buying them back. .since besides his lack of humility, he seems to be a bit of a greedy ass fuck too.. hahahahaha.
Why do you pretend you know how much BTC I have?

I have a working theory - that is actually a pretty good one.

Why do you sell 4% of your stack every year?

Within my authorization I could sell up to 10% of the 200-WMA dollar value as long as the BTC price is at least 25% above the 200-WMA.

I don't even sell close to my authorized levels.... which is not really a big deal... especially if we might recognize that overall my holdings are in the ballpark of 70x higher than my costs.. so I could sell various small percentages at any time and it is not really changing my portfolio size by very much..

And, yeah, my profit level (on paper) went from about 126x and down to as low as 60x, and now (as I type) floating around 70x... not really a BIG deal.. at least I have coins rather than being in dollars and having hypothetical coins, which seems to be your current status after selling most, if not all, of your coins.

Even if I might say that in 2017 through 2020, my average cost per coin was in the ballpark of $1k per coin, so if you might recall that the BTC price went up to $19,666 in late 2017, so that would be around 19.6x in profits, and then we had bitcoin corrections that spent quite a bit of time in 2018 through 2020 in the ranges of $3,124 to $10k for much of that time, event hough later, especially starting in late 2020, we largely broke above $20k and stayed above $20k, so maybe the hardest time was at various points between 201 and 2020 to have dips that brought my holdings to get as low as 3.124x in profits.. .. so yeah those were tougher times to ONLY have profits in the 3.124x to 10x territories... as compared to the supposed pain these days of only 60x to 70x profits (on paper) and your prediction that my profit might go into the 30x to 50x territories, which may well be your little fantasy rather than anything  that really ends up happening in the real world.  Yet you still have the ongoing dilemma (based on lack of fulfillment) regarding when and how to buy back..

Why don’t you do ANYTHING to support Bitcoin?

You seem to be arguing from a position of desperation, to the extent that any guys (including yours truly) have any obligation to do anything for bitcoin.

You have shot yourself in the foot by failing refusing to hold bitcoin, while you are trying to put  yourself out there as a bitcoin expert and even a trading expert, yet even in your last trade, you have turned yourself into a low coiner or perhaps a no coiner and you are bragging about it, as if that kinds of an approach to bitcoin were a good idea.

You are free to do whatever you like, yet when you are bragging about being smarter than everyone else, then that seems both incorrect but also contrary to your own facts of selling way too much coins too soon in 2017, yet you want to proclaim that dumbass mistake does not count... like you did not know any better or that you did not know about cycles and blah blah blah, even though claiming yourself to be an expert.  Those are not even my words.  You are the one who said that you were an expert.

You are a leech. A flea dangling from the nuts of Bitcoiners like myself. Clinging for dear life in the hopes you can sell Bitcoin like a market parasite the rest of your life to support yourself. You are pathetic and a negative addition to Bitcoin. You should honestly be ashamed to post here.

I have bitcoin and you don't, even though you claim to have been profited by selling most if not all of yours.

I doubt that guys are concerned that guys are selling some of their bitcoin from time to time, especially if the guys have reached overaccumulation status - to the extent that you could even imagine what overaccumulation status is.

Sure, your goals might be greater than being able to have a mostly passive income from bitcoin, yet if you were to have 20 bitcoin right now, then you could still withdraw right around $8,800 per month (or $105k) per year (and with an ability to increase your dollar withdrawal rate by 7% per year forever and ever), so sure maybe you have a goal to have more bitcoin before you start to withdraw from your bitcoin - to the extent that you even understand how to deploy such a practice.

For sure, there is a considerable amount of latitude in terms of how guys might choose to manage their bitcoin holdings once they have reached a status that the consider to be enough or more than enough bitcoin.

In one of your earlier posts, you seemed to be having a dilemma whether you would be buying back your bitcoin or perhaps getting into some other kind of a potential investment with whatever proceeds that you might have from the bitcoin that you supposedly sold.

Sure, perhaps you are the more true bitcoiner who is just considering his options... Right?  I doubt that any of us is really proclaiming that there is ONLY one way to be a bitcoiner, yet it seems like when claiming to be a good bitcoiner, it would help to have some bitcoin.
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March 12, 2026, 10:01:15 PM


Explanation
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March 12, 2026, 11:01:13 PM


Explanation
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March 12, 2026, 11:02:05 PM

If it wasn't for brash geopolitics and the absolute stupidity of politicians, Bitcoin would be at 100K at least.
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March 12, 2026, 11:05:34 PM

Someone swapped $50,432,668 USDT for $36,500 $AAVE on Ethereum.

Was it a mistake or intentional?

https://etherscan.io/tx/0x9fa9feab3c1989a33424728c23e6de07a40a26a98ff7ff5139f3492ce430801f
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March 12, 2026, 11:06:46 PM

Someone swapped $50,432,668 USDT for $36,500 $AAVE on Ethereum.

https://etherscan.io/tx/0x9fa9feab3c1989a33424728c23e6de07a40a26a98ff7ff5139f3492ce430801f

Oof.
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March 12, 2026, 11:09:19 PM
Last edit: Today at 03:43:25 AM by Biodom
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it seems to be a 12.3X 10X value difference?
oopsie

In the good old days of bitcoin ten years ago, sometimes there were persistent single out of whack trades with certain btc amounts (like 0.005432-just an example) that had wrong (higher) prices.
Some people considered those as flags or signals to a "group" to start buying or selling-a form of communication, if you will.
I honestly don't know if it was true back then, but today seems like an error.

Another famous "old story" is the "slaying of the bear whale"-someone had posted 30K btc at $300 for sale (if i recall correctly)....and community responded by "eating" all that ask in a short order.
Interestingly, price went much under $300 later on (maybe to $175 or so by Jan 2015).
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March 12, 2026, 11:17:02 PM

Sortino ratio is showing that corn is somehow at the bottom.


Someone should make a website that keeps track of all these at the same time. I've not seen this ratio before, thank you.


-I also didn't know this indicator, and I went to research to see how it works.
 Here I found a good explanation>
https://fastercapital.com/content/Sortino-ratio--How-to-calculate-and-interpret-the-Sortino-ratio-and-how-it-differs-from-the-Sharpe-ratio.html#The-Sortino-Ratio-Explained

"3. The Sortino Ratio Explained

The Sortino Ratio is named after its creator, Frank A. Sortino, and it's particularly useful for evaluating investment strategies, portfolios, or individual assets. Here's a comprehensive exploration of this ratio:
...."

So, I realized that like any indicator, it is not 100% reliable, but it indicates the ends
very well, I also saw in this posted graph, some failures of the indicator,
I scribbled and it is in sequence, but even so, it has a Good performance.



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March 12, 2026, 11:22:47 PM

Sortino ratio is showing that corn is somehow at the bottom.


Someone should make a website that keeps track of all these at the same time. I've not seen this ratio before, thank you.


-I also didn't know this indicator, and I went to research to see how it works.
 Here I found a good explanation>
https://fastercapital.com/content/Sortino-ratio--How-to-calculate-and-interpret-the-Sortino-ratio-and-how-it-differs-from-the-Sharpe-ratio.html#The-Sortino-Ratio-Explained

"3. The Sortino Ratio Explained

The Sortino Ratio is named after its creator, Frank A. Sortino, and it's particularly useful for evaluating investment strategies, portfolios, or individual assets. Here's a comprehensive exploration of this ratio:
...."

So, I realized that like any indicator, it is not 100% reliable, but it indicates the ends
very well, I also saw in this posted graph, some failures of the indicator,
I scribbled and it is in sequence, but even so, it has a Good performance.





That deepest dip in Sortino probably corresponded to Jan 2015 where many people got discouraged at the very end of the bear market.
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March 12, 2026, 11:38:51 PM

I should be clear about my thoughts on the 4 year cycle.

Yes less block size= true
Yes price goes up when blocks half=true

Crypto winter every four years = false

So OgN is correct in 2 out of 3 case.

There is no reason for btc price retreat bears whatever to happen on a repeating 4 year cycle.


This is my position and I do not need to trade or bet on it.

What constitutes crypto winter? We just had a 53% decline… I sure feel like I was right. Maybe by the end of the year you will as well. If you are trying to be honest about my opinion though, the four year cycle doesn’t predict bottoms, it predicts when we will see 4 year cycle tops. It was shockingly accurate even if the fall afterward doesn’t meet your definition of crypto winter. We will have to wait and see in 2029 if it remains spot on. As of now it has performed with 100% accuracy in all four halving cycles and I was right again.

I have been surprised by the amount of BTC being purchased by Strategy’s STRC offering. It is currently keeping the market afloat. I wonder how much longer there will be demand for that…
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March 12, 2026, 11:51:12 PM

If STRC remains at par even when bitcoin would fluctuate down from here and Fed drops interest rates, the amount of money streaming to STRC could resemble a tsunami.
Most boomers have no idea yet about the existence of STRC as far as how much it pays out.

I am not converting my money market fund to STRC yet only because i was unnerved by the prior two sharp drops from 99 to 92-95 and decided to observe one more btc drop and see if it would have an affect on STRC.
The longer STRC stays stable, more people would invest, providing an ever increasing opportunity for MS to buy bitcoin with the proceeds. All he needs is bitcoin appreciating more than 11.5%/year on average to do this essentially in perpetuity.
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