Currently, at this rate, buying is ok, or waiting is better. Any solid suggestion.
If you are a newbie no coiner or low coiner, then waiting does not tend to be a good strategy.
If you are a newbie no coiner or low coiner, you need to start to turn yourself into a coiner by buying bitcoin regularly within the context of your discretionary funds. I tend to like buying weekly and getting into a habit of buying every week.
If you want to save up to 20% of your regular BTC buys for buying dips that may or may not happen, that is up to you, yet it tends to take a decently long time to build up a bitcoin stash, and many guys are not really able to do it in a cycle or two unless they are able to front load their investment in some way, whether lump sum, DCA, buying on dip or a combination, and yeah, I am not much of a fan for buying on dip for newbies, since the dips might not end up happening, yet if you are buying every week, you will end up catching dips anyhow, and perhaps after buying a cycle or two you will figure out how many bitcoin you think that you need.. which come from ongoing buying, not fucking around with trading (which seems to be where your head is right now.. and trading tends to be a way more uncertain approach in regards to making sure that your bitcoin size is ongoingly growing.
I am a complete newbie with some knowledge of Bitcoin through friends, now learning and trying to understand. I want to buy weekly because this is going to help me in the long run.
If you have come to a conclusion that you are going to invest in bitcoin and not try to trade it, and also that you are not going to fuck around with shitcoins, then you likely have a reasonably good mental framework in regards to from where you are starting out.
Investing comes from your discretionary funds, so if you are making enough money that you are able to pay for all of your basic expenses, then whatever that you have remaining would be your discretionary funds, and you can use discretionary funds to invest in bitcoin, and also to build up back up funds and to engage in whatever discretionary consumption you are going to continue to do.
The more discretionary funds you can generate by increasing your income and/or cutting your expenses will give you more funds to work with in regards to your bitcoin investment, and I frequently suggest that guys should try to invest into bitcoin as much as they can without overdoing it, and if you overdo it by spending beyond your discretionary funds and/or not building and maintaining enough back up funds, then you will be the one to pay for it, and maybe if you had been investing 10 years or longer, and you consider your mistakes, you are not able to turn back the clock to make up for any mistakes that you might have had made 5 or 10 years earlier.
So, there is value in not overdoing it, starting out slow to get used to the process and then to increase your level of aggressiveness as you become more comfortable, including making sure that your back up funds are shored up, which allows you to make mistakes and have back up funds to help you to recover from mistakes, as long as your mistakes are small in size rather than being large mistakes.
I presume that most beginner investors are building their bitcoin portfolios only from their regular income and therefore the discretionary income from their regular income. Of course, some guys do have other investments and other resources that they can draw upon in order to be able to invest at higher levels than their peers, yet if you don't have those kinds of extra resources, then you just have to work with your discretionary income from your regular work... so whether your discretionary income rises to the level of your being able to invest 5% to 25% of your income into bitcoin, the progress can differ depending on how much you are able to invest, so for example, any guy who might be investing 10% of his income into bitcoin, it is going to take him 10 years to put 1 year worth of income into bitcoin, yet some guys are not in a position to be more aggressive than that, unless they figure out ways to increase their income and/or to cut their expenses.
Ultimately newbie bitcoiners are likely best off to try to tailor their own individual particulars and to at least consider their
9 factors. They do not have to have their 9 individual factors figured out when they start, except to just be able to determine that they are investing within discretionary funds and they are not using non-discretionary funds to invest in bitcoin .., and I, personally, consider investing in bitcoin to be a 4-10 year or longer timeline, and I consider guys who have a less than 4 year timeline as traders rather than investing, and I consider bitcoin to be a good investment, which also means I don't agree with ideas to try to trade it.
Hopefully in the near future I will again join here for more understanding because it's looking promising for savings and long-run investments.
If you are a beginner who is feeling overwhelmed by how much time it takes to look into matters and to get everything figured out, then surely it is better to not invest beyond your comfort level, so even if you were to spend a few hours and assess your income and your expenses, and maybe you come to a tentative conclusion that you could fairly easily put $100 per week into bitcoin without really suffering in terms of how much you would be taking out of your discretionary funds and locking up into bitcoin. Maybe since you are a beginner, it might be better to start out with $30 per week and then ONLY increase your weekly amount as you become more comfortable with both the process of buying and holding bitcoin but also getting used to not having that money in your available to spend funds.
Of course, you can also create your own list of priorities in regards to which matters you might want to research into first... for example, I have always created Excel spreadsheets for myself in order to project out my cashflows, so I have a pretty good ideas about my income verus my expenses and how much extra I would likely have available each month (or week), and so maybe you might feel that you need to go through your own finances before you would become more comfortable to increase your investment level into bitcoin.. and maybe you want to look at specific expenses and figure out if they are needs or wants, and sometimes, guys might be able to discover some extra funds that they are able to put into bitcoin based on some of the ways that they are spending money while knowing that some expenses have to be paid each month and other expenses are optional.
[edited out]
Yes. We (two) more or less agree on this. I also don't see a serious bull forming. As I posted earlier, this "bull" is just a baby calf throwing temper tantrums and producing a ton of manure in the process...
Hahahaha
There is no such thing as a baby bull throwing a temper tantrum.
Either we have a bull or we don't.. and sure, I will acknowledge that sometimes we might transition from a bear to a bull, but we might not realize that we are in a bull until many months later, perhaps even a year or more in some instances.
Let me describe our most recent transition. Recall in about May or June 2022 we had confirmed that we had gone into a bear market (largely the earliest of signs related to the fall out from the Terra/Luna matter that droped the BTC price fairly quickly from the upper $30ks to the lower $30ks with further downfalls to follow. .which more or less took us to the sub $20k and bouncing around $20k in June but then correcting further another several thousand below $20k in the later part of the year culminating in the largest dip right after the FTX bancrupcy fallout that brought the low down to $15,479 in November 2022.
So, most folks conceded that we were then in a bear market from mid to late 2022, and even when we started to recover to get back above $20k in late December 2022 and even got into the mid $20ks by January 2023, the trickle of the price upwards and even various times getting into the lower $30ks at various points in 2023 were not really strong enough for us to confirm that we were out of the bear market until late 2023 when the BTC price finally broke above the mid-$30ks, and that coincided with both rumors of the Bitcoin spot ETF getting approved through late 2023 and the actual approval and going live in mid January 2024.
There were likely guys proclaiming a bull market through 2023, yet I personally did not start to proclaim that we had transitioned into a bull until October or November 2023, even though maybe there was enough evidence and/or information to call it earlier. .and that wasn't any kind of a baby bull... it was either a bear or a bull. .and no such thing as a baby bull.
My sell order hasn't even gone through yet. FFS, someone, take my 0.1 BTC @ $83.5k!
Maybe that is a sign from a higher order that you might not need to be selling so low?
Hey, don't get me wrong. I have been selling since $250 in 2015, so I am not a very good role model in regards to convicted HODLing. I probably would have had to either cut down on my bitcoin exposure or go crazy if I had not been skimming off some bitcoin at various points along the way since 2015.
Whatever I have been doing may have had been cosmetic, even though it has made me feel better through the years..
Look and weep the current status:
64.3% saying that we are out.
Hardly a large enough sample to have any meaningful statistical significance, in an already biased population, but yes, it's a math-&-sciencey result for sure. Let's go all-in and wait for the ATH this year.
No need to get all technical.
BTW, going all-in is still OK (although I would suggest DCA).
I don't really like the idea of "going all in," even though it might work for the finances of some guys. Most guys need some dollar (or their local fiat) balances to take care of their expenses that are in dollars (or their local fiat).
Because the ATH will come. This year? I don't think so. In late 2029? More likely.
You might be right that even if we were to start to go up, we still might not get a new ATH in this calendar year.
The trend is your friend, which also means that many times it can take time to regain lost ground.
Your suggestion of 2029 seems overly bearish, even though it does not hurt to take an overly conservative approach that ends up allowing for a pleasant surprise if overperformance ends up playing out.
Just getting back to $126.3k is right around a 60% price appreciation from our current $79.5k prices.
[...]
Only time will tell us where it's going.
Earlier, you told us that it was going down.
Now you're talking semantics.
Aren't "we" all about lame and petty arguments that might also have some deeper substantive meanings?
Many times I will read your posts, and then say to myself, "that seems reasonable." Yet, every once in a while, I will read your posts, and say to myself, "holy shit, what has he been smoking?" hahahahahaha
I said that "I'm guesstimating it's going down". Which is different from "It's going down".
Fair point.
Even if I get a sense that it is going down, I usually don't want to say it, since it is not like I am going to sell in advance.
The most that I usually do is cancel some buy orders so that I can potentially buy at lower prices in those cases that I really become convinced it is going down, and usually I don't even do that since I already tend to have reasonable buy orders that are sufficiently spread apart.
Also, I have witnessed so many times that I had envisioned (deep, deep on the inside) that for sure the BTC price is going to go down to a certain level.. like I know it in my knower, yet even in those situations, I tend to just keep all of my buy orders in place, and sometimes the BTC prices end up going down and sometimes they do not.
Historically, I tried to be a bit more of an activist in moving around my buy orders (and my sell orders, too), and fairly often, my movement of my buy/sell orders would end up not really working to my advantage. From those experiences, I have learned that it tends to be be better to just leave my orders in place and allow the chips to fall where they will and to allow them to mechanically get filled or not based on already preset intervals.
BTW we (two) know it's going down. 
Since I am accepting my own assessment that we have not gotten out of the bear market, which means that we are still in a bear market, so then the results of any calculation has to slightly favor down over up.. and that would include us going to $75k, $65k, $59.9k and even lower price levels. At the same time, any amount of down is harder to reach when it is further down the chain, so I tend to enjoy a certain level of "wait and see" (trepidation).... which is part of my ongoing annoying personality that tends to not want to commit, even if I might see slight leanings in one direction or another.
Nice bear trap then higher again is what seems the most likely
You see, @AlcoHoDL.
This is a more than reasonable interpretation of current BTC price dynamics, too... and I like it more than thoughts of DOWNity
(downity is less fun), even if I, personally, would not have had used such a description of "seems the most likely".. even though I like the way those words, when put together, sound.
Poll
