Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fillippone]

Please, Bitcoin, Sthap.
In the meantime, let's get distracted by some useless statistics about the WO Gang in May.

Wall Observer BTC/USD Report: may 2026

🎧 Soundtrack (in loop)

₿ Bitcoin Trend - May 2026

Fig. 1. Market Trend

📈 Historical Post Trend (5 Years)

Fig. 2. Monthly Post Volume in Wall Observer Thread

📈 Historical Merit Trend (5 Years)

Fig. 3. Monthly Merit Volume in Wall Observer Thread

📊 Monthly Comparison

Fig. 4. Monthly Statistics Comparison

💎 Top Merited Content

1. Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion by Greyhats (+72) 2. Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion by fillippone (+54) 3. Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion by cAPSLOCK (+39) 4. Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion by AlcoHoDL (+38) 5. Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion by xhomerx10 (+33) 6. Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion by El duderino_ (+30) 7. Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion by ESG (+29) 8. Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion by nutildah (+29) 9. Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion by xhomerx10 (+27) 10. Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion by El duderino_ (+26)

📊 Correlation BTC Price ↔ Post Volume

Fig. 5. Correlazione mensile tra variazione prezzo BTC e volume post

🔄 Merit Flow (Chord Diagram)

Fig. 6. Merit transfers between users

🏆 Top Merit Receivers

Pos	Δ Pos	User	May	April	Δ Merit	BPIP	BitList
----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----
🥇	=	AlcoHoDL	210	225	▼(-15)
🥈	▲(7)	cAPSLOCK	169	107	▲(62)
🥉	▲(4)	xhomerx10	117	121	▼(-4)
4	▲(1)	Hueristic	103	129	▼(-26)
5	▲(5)	philipma1957	101	88	▲(13)
6	▼(-4)	vapourminer	96	173	▼(-77)
7	▲(7)	JayJuanGee	94	68	▲(26)
8	▼(-5)	El duderino_	91	143	▼(-52)
9	▲(10)	fillippone	85	55	▲(30)
10	▼(-2)	Biodom	83	115	▼(-32)

📤 Top 10 Merit Senders

Pos	Δ Pos	User	May	April	Δ Merit Sent	BPIP	BitList
----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----
🥇	=	El duderino_	790	945	▼(-155)
🥈	▲(1)	JayJuanGee	199	174	▲(25)
🥉	▼(-1)	vapourminer	155	228	▼(-73)
4	=	Hueristic	125	126	▼(-1)
5	🆕 NEW	BobLawblaw	116		🆕
6	▲(3)	AlcoHoDL	106	96	▲(10)
7	▲(1)	LFC_Bitcoin	74	98	▼(-24)
8	▼(-2)	cAPSLOCK	70	116	▼(-46)
9	▼(-4)	philipma1957	65	120	▼(-55)
10	=	xhomerx10	54	53	▲(1)

🏆 Top Posters

Pos	Δ Pos	User	May	April	Δ Posts	BPIP	BitList
----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----
🥇	=	ChartBuddy	815	688	▲(127)
🥈	=	philipma1957	122	157	▼(-35)
🥉	▲(32)	BobClawblaw	106	4	▲(102)
4	▲(2)	Biodom	81	64	▲(17)
5	▲(4)	AlcoHoDL	73	45	▲(28)
6	▼(-1)	Hueristic	70	66	▲(4)
7	▼(-3)	cAPSLOCK	58	95	▼(-37)
8	=	OgNasty	48	49	▼(-1)
9	▲(1)	JayJuanGee	42	44	▼(-2)
10	🆕 NEW	CryptoYar	40		🆕
10	▲(1)	vapourminer	40	41	▼(-1)
12	▲(3)	xhomerx10	33	35	▼(-2)
13	▲(25)	BobLawblaw	25	3	▲(22)
14	🆕 NEW	Floczy	24		🆕
14	▼(-1)	OutOfMemory	24	38	▼(-14)
16	=	ESG	21	21	=
17	▲(2)	d_eddie	20	18	▲(2)
18	▼(-6)	BitHodlers	19	41	▼(-22)
19	▲(1)	Lucius	18	18	=
19	▼(-5)	WatChe	18	37	▼(-19)
21	▲(5)	(BTC)	17	10	▲(7)
22	▲(1)	goldkingcoiner	15	14	▲(1)
22	▲(3)	El duderino_	15	10	▲(5)
22	🆕 NEW	snowpega	15		🆕
25	▲(14)	Bitcoin_Budha	14	3	▲(11)

🏆 All-Time Top 25 Posters

#	User	Posts	%
----	----	----	----
🥇	ChartBuddy	58,214	9.0%
🥈	JayJuanGee	24,089	3.7%
🥉	El duderino_	16,321	2.5%
4	adamstgBit	8,523	1.3%
5	Last of the V8s	8,282	1.3%
6	LFC_Bitcoin	8,229	1.3%
7	HairyMaclairy	7,644	1.2%
8	jojo69	7,419	1.1%
9	philipma1957	7,020	1.1%
10	Biodom	6,412	1.0%
11	JimboToronto	6,385	1.0%
12	Torque	6,179	1.0%
13	xhomerx10	6,035	0.9%
14	d_eddie	5,623	0.9%
15	Hueristic	5,526	0.9%
16	bitserve	5,286	0.8%
17	BobLawblaw	4,938	0.8%
18	Fatman3001	4,857	0.7%
19	Richy_T	4,576	0.7%
20	cAPSLOCK	4,539	0.7%
21	Toxic2040	4,463	0.7%
22	BlindMayorBitcorn	4,460	0.7%
23	OutOfMemory	4,398	0.7%
24	realr0ach	4,228	0.7%
25	jbreher	4,213	0.6%

🏅 All-Time Top 25 Merit Receivers

#	User	Merits
----	----	----
🥇	El duderino_	13,701
🥈	xhomerx10	9,631
🥉	LFC_Bitcoin	9,056
4	JayJuanGee	8,777
5	AlcoHoDL	6,770
6	cAPSLOCK	6,026
7	Hueristic	5,446
8	d_eddie	5,214
9	Paashaas	5,106
10	Biodom	5,081
11	JimboToronto	5,054
12	OutOfMemory	4,989
13	BobLawblaw	4,706
14	philipma1957	4,671
15	Torque	4,379
16	fillippone	4,249
17	Toxic2040	4,158
18	jojo69	4,050
19	vapourminer	4,002
20	ivomm	3,299
21	Last of the V8s	3,178
22	Gachapin	2,974
23	BitcoinBunny	2,866
24	sirazimuth	2,695
25	bitebits	2,655

All-time statistics: 649,404 posts from 6,758 users | 229,360 merits (since Feb 2018)

[OgNasty]

Imho, the way it is going would suggest a local bottom soon.
Price? Who knows.

I dare to predict that this movement is due to a largely underappreciated legal challenge in NY (I posted about it a couple of times).

I think this move is investors getting funds together for the SpaceX IPO. That is going to be a vacuum on global markets of all kinds. Crypto is likely being hit now as investors raise funds and the stock market will get hit after the IPO as index funds have to do major rebalancing. The Anthropic, OpenAI, & SpaceX IPOs are going to pull so much money out of markets. One of them is certain to mark a top in the stock market. Google also raised $80 billion dollars recently. The liquidity cash out is underway. Recessions typically follow. Be prepared.

[Audrey Simmons]

🔥 "This is fine." 🔥

• Attention! What we are currently experiencing is a feature rather than a bug. HODL

• মনোযোগ! আমরা বর্তমানে যা অনুভব করছি তা একটি বাগ নয় বরং একটি বৈশিষ্ট্য. HODL

• Pažnja! Ono što trenutno doživljavamo je značajka, a ne greška. HODL

• 注意！ 我们 amusement 所经历的是一个功能，而不是一个漏洞. HODL

• Pozor! To, co prožíváme, je funkce, nikoli chyba. HODL

• OBS! Det, vi oplever i øjeblikket, er en funktion og ikke en fejl. HODL

• Huomio! Se, mitä tällä hetkellä koemme, on ominaisuus eikä virhe. HODL

• Attention ! Ce que nous connaissons actuellement est une fonctionnalité plutôt qu'un bogue. HODL

• Achtung! Was wir derzeit erleben, ist ein Feature und kein Fehler. HODL

• Πρoσoχή! Aυτό πoυ βιώνoυμε αυτή τη στιγμή είναι ένα χαρακτηριστικό και όχι ένα σφάλμα. HODL

• 注意！ 細們目前所經歷的是一個功能，而不是一個漏洞. HODL

• Figyelem! Amit jelenleg tapasztalunk, az egy funkció, nem pedig egy hiba. HODL

• Athugið! Það sem við erum að upplifa núna er eiginleiki frekar en villa. HODL

• ध्यान दें! हम वर्तमान में जो अनुभव कर रहे हैं वह एक विशेषता है, कोई bug नहीं. HODL

• Perhatian! Apa yang saat ini kita alami adalah sebuah fitur, bukan sebuah bug. HODL

• Aird! Cad atá muid ag fulaingt faoi láthair tá gné seachas fabht. HODL

• תשומת לב! מה שאנחנו חווים כרגע זה פיצ'ר ולא באг. HODL

• Attenzione! Quello che stiamo vivendo attualmente è una caratteristica piuttosto che un bug. HODL

• 注目！ 仕様です. HODL

• 주의! 우리가 현재 겪고 있는 일은 버그가 아니라 기능입니다. HODL

• Opgepasst! Wat mir am Moment erliewen ass eng Feature an net e Feeler. HODL

• Perhatian! Apa yang kita alami sekarang adalah satu ciri, bukannya pepijat. HODL

• انتباه! ما نمر به حاليًا هو ميزة وليس خللًا. HODL

• Oppmerksomhet! Det vi opplever for øyeblikket er en funksjon, ikke en feil. HODL

• توجہ فرمائیں! ہم اس وقت جس چیز کا تجربہ کر रहे ہیں وہ ایک विशेषता ہے نہ کہ کوئی خرابی. HODL

• Atensyon!ng kasalukuyan nating nararanasan ay isang tampok sa halip na isang bug. HODL

• Uwaga! To, co obecnie przeżywamy, to funkcja, a nie błąd. HODL

• Atenção! O que estamos a vivenciar atualmente é uma característica e não um erro. HODL

• Atenție! Ceea ce ne confruntăm în prezent este o caracteristică, nu o eroare. HODL

• Bнимaниe! To, чтo мы ceйчac иcпытывaeм, — этo фичa, a нe бaг. HODL

• Пaжњa! Oнo штo тpeнyтнo дoживљaвaмo je кapaктepиcтикa, a нe гpeшкa. HODL

• Atención! Lo que estamos experimentando actualmente es una característica y no un error. HODL

• Uppmärksamhet! Det vi upplever just nu är en funktion snarare än en bugg. HODL

• โปรดทราบ! สิ่งที่เรากำลังประสบอยู่ตอนนี้คือฟีเจอร์ไม่ใช่บั๊ก. HODLD

• ikkat! Şu anda yaşadığımız şey bir hata değil, bir özelliktir. HODL

• Увaгa! Te, щo ми зapaз пepeживaємo, — цe фiчa, a нe бaг. HODL

• Chú ý! Những gì chúng ta đang trải qua hiện tại là một tính năng chứ không phải là một lỗi! HODL

• Make una hear me so! wetin dey happen no be big palava to worry, na just small feature, so make una fit HODL

 Carry on.

Added

If you may ask, Nigerian pidgin.

[philipma1957]

🔥 "This is fine." 🔥

• Attention! What we are currently experiencing is a feature rather than a bug. HODL

• মনোযোগ! আমরা বর্তমানে যা অনুভব করছি তা একটি বাগ নয় বরং একটি বৈশিষ্ট্য. HODL

• Pažnja! Ono što trenutno doživljavamo je značajka, a ne greška. HODL

• 注意！ 我们 amusement 所经历的是一个功能，而不是一个漏洞. HODL

• Pozor! To, co prožíváme, je funkce, nikoli chyba. HODL

• OBS! Det, vi oplever i øjeblikket, er en funktion og ikke en fejl. HODL

• Huomio! Se, mitä tällä hetkellä koemme, on ominaisuus eikä virhe. HODL

• Attention ! Ce que nous connaissons actuellement est une fonctionnalité plutôt qu'un bogue. HODL

• Achtung! Was wir derzeit erleben, ist ein Feature und kein Fehler. HODL

• Πρoσoχή! Aυτό πoυ βιώνoυμε αυτή τη στιγμή είναι ένα χαρακτηριστικό και όχι ένα σφάλμα. HODL

• 注意！ 細們目前所經歷的是一個功能，而不是一個漏洞. HODL

• Figyelem! Amit jelenleg tapasztalunk, az egy funkció, nem pedig egy hiba. HODL

• Athugið! Það sem við erum að upplifa núna er eiginleiki frekar en villa. HODL

• ध्यान दें! हम वर्तमान में जो अनुभव कर रहे हैं वह एक विशेषता है, कोई bug नहीं. HODL

• Perhatian! Apa yang saat ini kita alami adalah sebuah fitur, bukan sebuah bug. HODL

• Aird! Cad atá muid ag fulaingt faoi láthair tá gné seachas fabht. HODL

• תשומת לב! מה שאנחנו חווים כרגע זה פיצ'ר ולא באг. HODL

• Attenzione! Quello che stiamo vivendo attualmente è una caratteristica piuttosto che un bug. HODL

• 注目！ 仕様です. HODL

• 주의! 우리가 현재 겪고 있는 일은 버그가 아니라 기능입니다. HODL

• Opgepasst! Wat mir am Moment erliewen ass eng Feature an net e Feeler. HODL

• Perhatian! Apa yang kita alami sekarang adalah satu ciri, bukannya pepijat. HODL

• انتباه! ما نمر به حاليًا هو ميزة وليس خللًا. HODL

• Oppmerksomhet! Det vi opplever for øyeblikket er en funksjon, ikke en feil. HODL

• توجہ فرمائیں! ہم اس وقت جس چیز کا تجربہ کر रहे ہیں وہ ایک विशेषता ہے نہ کہ کوئی خرابی. HODL

• Atensyon!ng kasalukuyan nating nararanasan ay isang tampok sa halip na isang bug. HODL

• Uwaga! To, co obecnie przeżywamy, to funkcja, a nie błąd. HODL

• Atenção! O que estamos a vivenciar atualmente é uma característica e não um erro. HODL

• Atenție! Ceea ce ne confruntăm în prezent este o caracteristică, nu o eroare. HODL

• Bнимaниe! To, чтo мы ceйчac иcпытывaeм, — этo фичa, a нe бaг. HODL

• Пaжњa! Oнo штo тpeнyтнo дoживљaвaмo je кapaктepиcтикa, a нe гpeшкa. HODL

• Atención! Lo que estamos experimentando actualmente es una característica y no un error. HODL

• Uppmärksamhet! Det vi upplever just nu är en funktion snarare än en bugg. HODL

• โปรดทราบ! สิ่งที่เรากำลังประสบอยู่ตอนนี้คือฟีเจอร์ไม่ใช่บั๊ก. HODLD

• ikkat! Şu anda yaşadığımız şey bir hata değil, bir özelliktir. HODL

• Увaгa! Te, щo ми зapaз пepeживaємo, — цe фiчa, a нe бaг. HODL

• Chú ý! Những gì chúng ta đang trải qua hiện tại là một tính năng chứ không phải là một lỗi! HODL

 Carry on.

       Hold hold hold hold hold
hodl hodl hodl hodl hodl hodl hodl
       hold hold hold hold hold


the most important haiku ever written in the w.o.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Imho, the way it is going would suggest a local bottom soon.
Price? Who knows.

I dare to predict that this movement is due to a largely underappreciated legal challenge in NY (I posted about it a couple of times).

I think this move is investors getting funds together for the SpaceX IPO. That is going to be a vacuum on global markets of all kinds. Crypto is likely being hit now as investors raise funds and the stock market will get hit after the IPO as index funds have to do major rebalancing. The Anthropic, OpenAI, & SpaceX IPOs are going to pull so much money out of markets. One of them is certain to mark a top in the stock market. Google also raised $80 billion dollars recently. The liquidity cash out is underway. Recessions typically follow. Be prepared.

It could be, but bitcoin ain't in the same category as SpaceX, so it is a bit strange.
Additionally, they ain't selling MU yet in case these are "serial" pop chasers.

However, I agree that either SpaceX, Antropic or OpenI IPOs would be the approximate top of the market aka 1999-2000.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

[edited out]

As for balance of power changing oh well I did sell silver at 110-118 and purchased back at 74-80.

Wow!!!!!!

Buying back bags kind of a "balance"...

This is what ai is good for, I'm far too lazy to do this for ever, fuck that, want to cherry pick a timeframe.



QUERRY: IF this guy bought bitcoin during this time how would that compare?

"As for balance of power changing oh well I did sell silver at 110-118 and purchased back at 74-80."

Here’s the clean, direct answer you’re looking for — how buying Bitcoin during the same period would compare to selling silver at $110–118 and buying back at $74–80.

I’ll break it down into a simple, numerical, side‑by‑side scenario so you can see the relative performance.
🧮 1. First, identify the timeframe

Silver at $110–118 only happened during the 2021 Reddit silver squeeze spike (briefly in early February 2021).

Silver at $74–80 never happened in real markets — so this must be a hypothetical dip or a scaled comparison the original person was making.

But the important part is:
They sold high and bought back lower.

So let’s mirror that with Bitcoin in the same real-world period.
📅 2. Bitcoin price during that same window

Early February 2021 BTC price:

    Feb 1–10, 2021: $33,000 → $45,000

Later dip (mid‑2021):

    July 2021 bottom: ~$29,000

So the closest BTC equivalent to “sold high, bought back lower” would be:

    Sell BTC at ~$40k (Feb 2021 average)

    Buy BTC back at ~$29k (July 2021 bottom)

📈 3. Compare the gains
Silver trade (their example)

Let’s assume they sold at $115 and bought back at $77.

    Drop: $115 → $77

    Percentage gain:

115−7777≈49%

So they effectively increased their silver stack by ~49%.
Bitcoin trade (same period)

Sell at $40,000 → Buy back at $29,000

    Drop: $40k → $29k

    Percentage gain:

40,000−29,00029,000≈38%

So the equivalent Bitcoin trade would yield ~38% more BTC.
🥇 4. Final comparison
Asset   Sold At   Bought At   Effective Gain in Units
Silver   $110–118   $74–80   ≈ 49% more silver
Bitcoin   $40k   $29k   ≈ 38% more BTC

Conclusion:  
If “this guy” had done the same timing strategy with Bitcoin during that period, he would have gained less than with silver — roughly 38% vs 49%.

Still a strong trade, but not as dramatic as the silver example.
Want me to run the numbers for a different timeframe?

I can calculate:

    Exact BTC gains for any dates

    Silver vs Bitcoin performance

    Gold vs Bitcoin comparisons

    Inflation-adjusted returns

Just tell me the dates or scenario you want to explore next.

So How  many years was silver suppressed before it mooned?

The short version: silver was “suppressed” (flat, capped, range‑bound) for roughly 8–10 years before its last explosive move.  
But let’s break that down precisely so you can see the pattern.
📉 1. The period of suppression before silver “mooned” (historically)
A) After the 1980 Hunt Brothers spike

Silver hit $50/oz in 1980, then collapsed and stayed suppressed for:

    1980 → 2003

    ≈ 23 years of suppression

Then it finally began a real bull run in the mid‑2000s.
B) Before the 2011 moonshot

Silver rose slowly from 2003 to 2008, but the true moonshot was:

    2008 → 2011

    Silver went from $9 → $49

Before that 2011 spike, silver had been suppressed around $4–$7 for:

    1991 → 2003

    ≈ 12 years of suppression

C) Before the 2020 spike

After the 2011 peak at $49, silver crashed and stayed suppressed:

    2011 → 2020

    ≈ 9 years of suppression

Then it “mooned” to $29 during the COVID liquidity wave.
📊 2. So how many years of suppression before each moon?
Period   Suppression Length   Moonshot
1980 → 2003   ~23 years   2003–2008 bull run
1991 → 2003   ~12 years   2008–2011 spike to $49
2011 → 2020   ~9 years   2020 spike to $29
🎯 3. The pattern

Silver tends to stay suppressed for 8–20 years before a major breakout.

The most consistent number is:
≈ 10 years of suppression before a moonshot

This is why many silver analysts argue that silver moves in long, violent cycles:

    Long periods of flat, capped prices

    Sudden explosive moves (200%–400% in 1–3 years)

If you want, I can compare silver’s suppression cycles to Bitcoin’s halving cycles

Choose one:

    Compare silver cycles to Bitcoin cycles

    Explain why silver stays suppressed

    Predict the next silver cycle based on history

And if bitcoin was bought during that suppression period?

Here’s the clear, no‑nonsense answer:

If someone bought Bitcoin during silver’s “suppression periods,” the returns would have been absolutely enormous — orders of magnitude larger than silver’s later moonshots.

To make this concrete, let’s walk through each major silver suppression cycle and overlay Bitcoin’s price during the same years.

This gives you a clean, historical, apples‑to‑apples comparison.
📉 Silver Suppression Cycles vs. 📈 Bitcoin Prices

Below are the three major silver suppression periods and what Bitcoin did during each one.
1️⃣ Suppression Period: 2011 → 2020 (≈ 9 years)

Silver crashed from $49 to $14 and stayed flat.
Bitcoin during this same period:

    2011: $1

    2020: $10,000

Return if bought BTC during silver suppression:
10,0001=10,000×

A $1,000 buy becomes $10,000,000.

Silver?
It went down during this same period.
2️⃣ Suppression Period: 1991 → 2003 (≈ 12 years)

Silver stuck between $4–$6.
Bitcoin during this period?

Bitcoin did not exist yet (launched 2009).

So no comparison here.
3️⃣ Suppression Period: 1980 → 2003 (≈ 23 years)

Silver collapsed from $50 → $4 and stayed suppressed for decades.
Bitcoin during this period?

Also did not exist.
So the only overlapping suppression period where Bitcoin existed is:
➡️ 2011 → 2020

And during that time:

    Silver: –70%

    Bitcoin: +1,000,000% (10,000×)

📊 Summary Table
Period   Silver Behavior   Bitcoin Price   BTC Return
1980–2003   Suppressed   BTC not invented   —
1991–2003   Suppressed   BTC not invented   —
2011–2020   Suppressed   $1 → $10,000   10,000×
🎯 Final Answer

If someone bought Bitcoin during silver’s last suppression period (2011–2020), they would have made the single greatest investment return of the century:
10,000× gains vs silver’s –70% decline.

Silver’s “moonshot” in 2020–2021 (to $29) is tiny compared to Bitcoin’s exponential rise during the same years.
If you want, I can now calculate:

    What if someone bought BTC at each silver suppression low?

    What if someone rotated from silver into BTC at each cycle?

    What if silver had Bitcoin‑like returns?

Pick one and I’ll run it.

So basically what are the odds of guessing the one period to get into siver at the perfect time verses just buying bitcoin?

The short, blunt truth:
The odds of perfectly timing silver’s “one magical entry point” are extremely low, while the odds of Bitcoin outperforming over long periods have historically been extremely high.

Let’s break this down in a way that’s actually useful — mathematically, historically, and probabilistically.
🎯 1. Silver only gives you a tiny number of winning windows

Silver’s explosive moves happen after long suppression cycles:

    1980 → 2003 (23 years suppressed)

    1991 → 2003 (12 years suppressed)

    2011 → 2020 (9 years suppressed)

And each time, the “moonshot” window is short:

    2008–2011: ~3 years

    2020–2021: ~1 year

So out of a 40‑year history, silver only had about 4 total years where buying before the spike produced huge gains.

That’s:
440=10%

Meaning:
You have roughly a 1-in-10 chance of hitting the perfect silver entry window.

And that assumes you knew you were in a suppression period — which nobody knows in real time.
₿ 2. Bitcoin, by contrast, rewarded almost every entry year

Bitcoin’s long-term behavior is different:

    It trends upward over multi‑year periods

    It has repeated 4‑year halving cycles

    It has historically made new highs after each cycle

If you bought Bitcoin in any year except 2021, you were up by 2024–2025.

That’s roughly:
13 winning years14 total years≈93%

So:
Bitcoin historically gave you a ~93% chance of being up after a few years.

Not financial advice — just historical math.
📊 3. Side-by-side probability comparison
Asset   Chance of Perfect Timing   Chance of Long-Term Gains
Silver   ~10%   ~50% (flat for decades)
Bitcoin   ~93%   ~93%
🔥 4. Why the odds are so different
Silver

    Moves in decades-long cycles

    Only moons after long suppression

    Requires perfect timing

    Most years = dead money

Bitcoin

    Moves in 4-year cycles

    Historically makes new highs

    Many entry points work

    You don’t need perfect timing

🧠 5. Final Answer

If your strategy relies on:

    Guessing the exact bottom

    During a decade-long suppression

    In a metal that rarely moves

Then the odds are very low you’ll hit the perfect silver entry.

If your strategy is simply:

    Buy Bitcoin during almost any multi-year period

Then historically the odds of success were very high.
Want to go deeper?

I can run:

    Probability of silver outperforming BTC in any 10-year window

    Model a portfolio that rotates between silver and BTC

    Show the exact years silver beat Bitcoin

Pick one and I’ll break it down.

[philipma1957]

So hitting the 77 to 78 silver spike

The 2008-2011 spike

And the 2023-2026 spike is 10x10x10

 1000 to one


Well I did that.

And netted around 45k profits.



But not nearly so good with btc


BTW nov 2021 to now flat

But April 2021 to now say 38 k to 64k.


Essentially

If you loaded up in 2022 at 16k

Or 2020 at 4k  reverse mindrusting


You are still okay but just stack.

I am waiting for my 63636 dip to m hit next.

[vapourminer]

i seem to be lost

which way to WO?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

[...]

Cycles or not, I'm almost certain that the price will have exceeded $1M by 2034, which is the year I'm retiring.

I guess if for your personal reasons, you believe that you need to wait so long - and you know that I don't go by the spot price since it can be so erratic, and even your suggetion that bitcoin will exceed $1 million by 2034 does not really clarify whether $1 million might be sustainable or if you might be planning to cash out some coins at around that price so that you are potentially valuing some extraction of dollars - and retirement presumes ongoing withdrawal of dollars.  

Even at the beginning of 2034, my own 200-WMA projections are showing 2034 to start the 200-WMA in the $335k-ish range, so of course, I am still thinking about the 200-WMA as a bottom. .yet $335k is still 5.4x in relation to today's $61,700 200-WMA.  I am not going to complain about those kinds of arguable potential bottoms...

I am also a bit unclear about what kind of a budget you expect to have? and of course, are we talking today's dollars or whatever the debasement of the dollar might be by then.. which is another reason to think in terms of BTC rather than dollars... even presuming something slightly less than a 7% annual debasement (which might be wishful thinking) the debasement would likely end up being in 60% territories, meaning the dollar will only purchase around 40% with the same denominations.  So? Maybe you would shoot for right around a $200k per year income, at minimum?  and so bitcoin prices are at least 25% higher than bottom prices, so my calculations suggest that you would not need much more than 5 BTC to clearly and sustainably support a $200k per year income at that time with 7% raises each year thereafter.  Do you want to see my proof of maths?  It is likely too speculative anyhow, so it is a big so what.. yet it still would be my ballpark argument, so that if you would be expecting $1million per year of minimum income with a 7% increase in the dollar amount each year, then you would need a minimum of 5x more bitcoin, which would be 25-ish bitcoin.   Sure maybe I am being too conservative, but it is likely better to error on the conservative side (seems that you told me that on more than one occasion, previously).

Well, I'm also unclear too, if I'm honest. I think many Bitcoiners, after years of accumulation and value appreciation, enter a state of being whereby they begin to have a much greater and deeper appreciation and motivation towards non-monetary rewards, benefits, or ideals. Think of it like rising higher in Maslow's hierarchy of needs. So, basically, you are set for life, all your physiological needs are taken care of. Maybe 5 or 25 BTC is too little for that. Or maybe not. $1M/BTC (spot price) is certainly more than enough for me, even taking into account 200-WMA's safety margin. Going by your numbers, assuming 25 BTC, that's $25M (spot) or $8M (extrapolated 200-WMA), which I think is a healthy position to be in.

Well?

Whether you intended it or not, I am going to go with $8 million as your target number under the 200-WMA auspices, which would thereby allow you to start to withdraw at $800k per year ($66,666 per month), once your bitcoin quantity is  reached or exceeded.

On this very day, it seems to me that even using the 200-WMA as a guideline, a guy would need to have at least 144 bitcoin in order to sustainably support an income of $800k per year or $66,667 per month (with a 7% increase each year), so that is not really seeming like a small amount of BTC that too many normie guys could easily achieve, even if he had been into bitcoin for 11 years or more. 

I am sure that the quantity of coins needed for such a starting amount of $800k per year will go down stupendously in the coming years, and I really doubt that it is going to take 8 years to get there.. even though this table shows that there would ONLY need to be 17.25 BTC to support such an income that starts at $800k per year in early 2034, my personally updated table shows the need for slightly more than 24 bitcoin by the beginning of 2034 to be able to start out at the $800k per year income. .. .. so yeah, I don't know.. it is quite a bit to speculate 8 years into the future.

How do I know? I can't explain it, and I can't prove it. In the words of Whitney Houston, "I just do!"

O.k. Can I blame you for my "further researching" into Ms. Houston for the past hour-ish?  I might be easily distracted or what?  Whitney truly had a great presence, and there was something special frequently captured in her live performances - especially when she would seem to go off the rails a bit. .and then still she would stay with such a great ability to hold it all together.. truly there have been several moving live version examples of her caught on video.

She is one of my all-time favorite female voices. It's so sad that she died so young. I hope the rabbit hole I opened for you was not too much of a time sink. Yes, you can blame me for that. I think rabbit holes are good, and I tend to easily fall into them too.

I was predisposed. .and surely her rendition of the Star Spangled Banner in 1991 was a nice and short example.

The poll is clear now too I guess

Apparently, we were all wrong.
#TheLastDip

The way I read the poll is that the "no" out number the "yes" by about 50%.. the outcome is 21 yes to 31 no.



To me, the votes and the outcome of the votes does not look wrong - even though we sure might not know with any confidence if the "bottom is in" or not.  Yet.

[asUHWEceyc]

Annnd...the range remains the same.

[Hueristic]

The poll is clear now too I guess

Apparently, we were all wrong.
#TheLastDip

The way I read the poll is that the "no" out number the "yes" by about 50%.. the outcome is 21 yes to 31 no.



To me, the votes and the outcome of the votes does not look wrong - even though we sure might not know with any confidence if the "bottom is in" or not.  Yet.

I should have said I was wrong. :|

[JayJuanGee]

The poll is clear now too I guess

Apparently, we were all wrong.
#TheLastDip

The way I read the poll is that the "no" out number the "yes" by about 50%.. the outcome is 21 yes to 31 no.

To me, the votes and the outcome of the votes does not look wrong - even though we sure might not know with any confidence if the "bottom is in" or not.  Yet.

I should have said I was wrong. :|

Hahahahaha

I did not even think about it.

.. .that I had accidentally revealed the direction of my vote.. Whoops.. OpSec completely screwed..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

This constant controlled selling with no bounce must be someone big unloading everything they have. I'm sure in a day of two we'll find out a little more about the size of the seller.
Edit: for fuck sake just bounce, even a little.

"We've" been "here" before, no?

This is what the "downities" do, and frequently, we cannot really have confidence when and/or if a bounce will occur.  

These kinds of downities tend to be grueling.

Also someone please tell we still refer to it as a cycle yes, until proven otherwise? Otherwise I might have to contemplate leaving

I believe that the impact of the cycle has been reducing over time with each iteration of it.

Well that's a relief. I otherwise agree with pretty much everything you said along the lines of the cycle is still there, but is becoming less relevant every epoch. Along with it eventually evaporating. Previously I always thought it was still as relevant for every epoch, just because "market psychology" playing into it, but a lot has changed since the ETFs, less traders more investors, I can see that now. To me it hinges on if there's going to be a major exchange collapse, another epidemic begin, a major invasion of sorts; some sort of catastrophic event for price that causes a capitulation in the final months. If not, then I don't see much happening other than a sizeable shakeout. When people thought the low was in at $60K in Feb I laughed, but I'm not laughing anymore.

If I was busy trading I'd say "we're going down, looks uber bear", but notably paying less attention to the price has me much less bearish these days, for better or for worse.

Well, I would add this. I believe that certain parts of the cycle have already been at least somewhat broken.  And every single cycle I underestimate the impact, because I expect that it is both diminishing and people are catching on.

Up until now, every cycle has had similarities and differences, so it seems cycles continue to exist within a framework that has a reasonable amount of variance, and even arguable "shock" value.

I hate to be the negative one all the time on this thread. Only a few more months though…

You absolutely love it.  You have a kind of sickness that you seem to not be able to control.


 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Wall Observer Digest - 2026-06-02 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-06-02 09:14 PM CT

Tuesday's Bitcoin is down 5.43% to $66,837, and the 30-day picture is uglier at -16.33%. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 11 with momentum deteriorating by 11 points over the past week, so the market is pricing in more pain than it's currently feeling.

I'm watching whether the death cross between the 50-day and 200-day EMAs holds or if the oversold RSI at 22.7 starts to mean something. The negative funding rate suggests shorts are paying up, which could cap further downside, but the ADX at 30.6 tells me this downtrend has real conviction behind it.

PRICE ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $66,837.00 USD (-5.43% 24h change).
Bitcoin opened June 2 at $71,305 and has since settled around $66,837, marking a 46% correction from the October 2025 peak of $126,198. The 30-day moving average sits at $76,993, so we're trading roughly $10,000 below where the market has been averaging over the past month. The RSI at 22.7 is deep in oversold territory, but the ADX at 30.6 confirms the downtrend has real conviction behind it. A death cross between the 50-day and 200-day EMAs signals structural damage that doesn't repair overnight. The negative funding rate of -0.6298% annualized means shorts are paying longs, which could provide some support, while the spot arbitrage premium of +66,750 across Coinbase and Kraken suggests institutional buyers are still present.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Strategy's first sale since 2022: The company sold 32 BTC for $2.5 million, a tiny amount but meaningful because Saylor built the company's reputation on never selling.
- Strive's aggressive accumulation: The Dallas-based treasury company bought 2,500 BTC for $185 million at $74,092 per coin, bringing total holdings to 19,000 BTC.
- Capital B's $122B funding mandate: France-listed Capital B is seeking shareholder approval for up to $122 billion in new capital-raising authority to accelerate Bitcoin accumulation.
- Schwab's mid-2027 advisor crypto rollout: Charles Schwab plans to roll out spot crypto trading, custody, and transfers for registered investment advisors by mid-2027, which could move meaningful volume given their $10 trillion in custody.

TOP STORIES

1. Strive Buys 2,500 BTC for $185M, Holdings Hit 19,000
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/strive-asst-adds-185-million-in-bitcoin
Published: 2026-06-02 08:20 AM CT
Summary: Strive, the Dallas-based treasury company founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, added 2,500 Bitcoin for $185.2 million at an average of $74,092 per coin. The purchase, disclosed in an SEC 8-K filing on June 2, 2026, brings total holdings to 19,000 BTC and puts Strive among the top ten publicly traded corporate holders. CEO Matt Cole, formerly of CalPERS, has grown the company from zero Bitcoin to 19,000 in under a year using a mix of equity offerings, preferred stock, and capital markets activity. Strive plans to increase its at-the-market fundraising programs by $4.2 billion, with $2.1 billion each for common and preferred stock. Meanwhile, Strategy sold 32 BTC for $2.5 million at $77,135 per coin - its first sale since December 2022 - with proceeds earmarked for preferred stock dividends.

2. Strategy Sells 32 Bitcoin
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/microstrategy-saylor-sell-bitcoin-maximalism-220000111.html
Published: 2026-06-02 05:00 PM CT
Summary: Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin for about $2.5 million between May 26 and 31, the first sale since 2022. The amount is tiny - less than a hundredth of a percent of their holdings - but it matters because Saylor built the company's reputation on never selling. They still hold 843,706 BTC worth over $60 billion, bought at an average of $75,699 each. The proceeds went to preferred stock distributions, not profit-taking. The bulls say it's a calculated move to keep credit rating agencies happy while staying all-in on Bitcoin.

3. Capital B Seeks $122B Funding Mandate for Bitcoin Buys
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/news/capital-b-shareholder-motion-58b-capital-increase-116b-credit
Published: 2026-06-02
Summary: Capital B, a France-listed Bitcoin treasury company, is asking shareholders to approve up to $122 billion in new capital-raising authority to accelerate its Bitcoin accumulation strategy. The company currently holds 3,139 BTC, most recently acquiring 192 coins for $15.2 million at roughly $78,948 each. Their stock has fallen 44% over the past six months, and the announcement itself triggered another 7% drop to $0.56. Meanwhile, other Bitcoin treasury firms are doing the opposite-Sequans is winding down its digital asset strategy, Michael Saylor's Strategy sold 32 BTC, and Nakamoto is hedging with derivatives. Capital B ranks as Europe's second-largest Bitcoin treasury firm, trailing only Germany's Bitcoin Group SE.

4. Bitcoin's 46% Correction From ATH: What the Charts Say
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/where-does-bitcoin-charts-191529416.html
Published: 2026-06-02 02:15 PM CT
Summary: Bitcoin opened June 2 at $71,305 and slid to $66,948 before settling around $67,287 - down 5.65% in a single session and at its lowest since April. The correction from the October 2025 peak of $126,198 has now erased more than 46% of the price. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled $2.43 billion in May, the worst monthly outflow of 2026, wiping out April's inflows in one stroke. The RSI sits at 22.7, deep in oversold territory, but the ADX at 30.6 confirms the downtrend has real conviction behind it. A death cross between the 50-day and 200-day EMAs signals structural damage that doesn't repair overnight.

5. Schwab Targets Mid-2027 for Advisor Spot Crypto
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/charles-schwab-sets-mid-2027-target
Published: 2026-06-02 12:36 PM CT
Summary: Charles Schwab plans to roll out spot crypto trading, custody, and transfers for registered investment advisors by mid-2027. The advisor product is separate from Schwab Crypto, which launched for retail in April 2026 at 75 basis points per trade and excluded New York and Louisiana residents. Schwab custodies roughly $10 trillion across 16,000 advisory firms, so even a modest shift toward spot crypto could move meaningful volume. Fidelity Digital Assets already has a head start in wealth manager custody, while Anchorage Digital and Coinbase Prime are also building infrastructure for the same channel. The mid-2027 target is a committed roadmap, not exploratory language, and CEO Rick Wurster has floated the possibility of a Schwab stablecoin as part of a broader digital asset build-out.

6. Bitcoin Dips Below $70K as Distribution Phase Returns
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-back-in-distribution-phase-as-fear-grips-crypto-market
Published: 2026-06-02
Summary: Bitcoin slipped below $70,000 for the first time since April, driven by short-term holders selling at a loss and a steady stream of coins moving onto exchanges. The short-term holder SOPR metric dropped to 0.98, meaning recent buyers are taking losses rather than riding out the dip. Six-to-twelve-month holders have also started selling, with exchange inflows reaching levels last seen when Bitcoin hit its all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 23, back in extreme fear territory, while spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded eleven consecutive days of outflows, the largest being $733.4 million on May 27. Meanwhile, whale activity has surged to its highest level since April, with the most $100,000-plus transactions seen since April 22, suggesting some large players are accumulating despite the broader weakness.

7. Bitcoin ETF Outflows Are Noise, Not a Signal
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/coindesk-news/2026/06/02/bitcoin-etf-outflows-are-noise-as-wall-street-doubles-down-on-crypto-says-analyst
Published: 2026-06-02
Summary: Eric Balchunas at Bloomberg Intelligence says the recent $3 billion in Bitcoin ETF redemptions is noise, not a warning. That's a drop in the bucket against roughly $100 billion in assets. He's comparing Bitcoin ETF flows to S&P 500 funds, which swing billions in and out without anyone losing sleep. Bitcoin has dropped about 50% from its peak, yet cumulative net flows since spot ETFs launched sit near $57 billion-close to the $63 billion high. ETF share counts have kept climbing even as the price fell, which suggests people are buying the vehicle, not fleeing it.

8. Bitcoin Falls Below $70,000 as Derivatives Flash Warning Signs
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/02/bitcoin-derivatives-markets-flashing-warning-signs-as-price-plunges-below-usd70-000
Published: 2026-06-02
Summary: Bitcoin slipped below $70,000 on Tuesday, trading around $69,300, while open interest in futures markets climbed to 773,000 BTC - one of the highest readings on record. That's a problem. Previous peaks in open interest have lined up with local market tops, and right now leveraged traders are betting on a rebound instead of cutting their losses. Funding rates have risen to roughly 10% annualized, meaning long traders are paying shorts to hold their positions. The Coinbase Premium Index sits deeply negative at around -100, which tells you U.S.

9. Bitcoin Falls Below $70,000 as Mt. Gox Moves $739 Million in BTC
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/why-did-bitcoin-drop-below-084148118.html
Published: 2026-06-02 03:41 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin slipped below $70,000 on Tuesday after Mt. Gox moved roughly 10,422 BTC-about $739 million-into new wallets. Most of it landed in a previously unseen address, and on-chain monitors confirmed no immediate exchange deposits or large-scale selling. The headline alone triggered short-term selling pressure in thin summer liquidity. Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, also sold 32 BTC for roughly $2.5 million to fund preferred stock distributions, breaking its long-standing accumulation streak.

10. Twinqo Upgrades Bitcoin Casino Integration with Lightning and Taproot
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-casino-2026-twinqo-announces-133900230.html
Published: 2026-06-02 08:39 AM CT
Summary: Twinqo, an offshore casino brand based in London, announced a 2026 upgrade to its Bitcoin casino platform that adds Lightning Network deposits alongside on-chain Bitcoin, Taproot-compatible single-use addresses, and real-time deposit tracking from mempool to confirmation. The company also introduced KYT and Travel Rule compliance screening, a proof-of-reserves wallet system with hot and cold storage, and UTXO-based accounting for cleaner reconciliation. The platform hosts over 3,000 games from 50+ providers including Endorphina, Nolimit City, and Hacksaw Gaming, with a VIP program offering cashback and bonuses. Bitcoin deposits start at a small fiat equivalent, and Twinqo is offering 10% cashback on Bitcoin deposits. The announcement comes as BTC-USD is down 5.56% at time of publication.

[ESG]

The poll is clear now too I guess

Apparently, we were all wrong.
#TheLastDip

The way I read the poll is that the "no" out number the "yes" by about 50%.. the outcome is 21 yes to 31 no.



To me, the votes and the outcome of the votes does not look wrong - even though we sure might not know with any confidence if the "bottom is in" or not.  Yet.

I should have said I was wrong. :|

So far, I haven't found the box, or the place below where I need to explain, to be able to explain, and I also haven't seen the place where the explanations of the people who also voted for this option are
and also the previous poll had a 104~108 votes, that one has half.
... I also thank you for your attention and jjg,  because it's serious and I've already delayed a long time, as soon as there is something, ill warning, but my time is rushed... And I also didn't imagine that the price would drop so sharply, I thought it would slow down a littlein the seventies..... enough long contracts at 64~65...
But I believe in the multidimensional universe based on quantum entanglement, very good that video.
but I can say that today I sent a message to a guy from my country here who has been a teacher in the area for 20 years, but he hasn't answered yet, maybe he won't even answer,... I saw the channel of the guy you said, but despite being another language, I'll try to explain it properly, even if I may not get an answer.... I'm going to log in to the google account try to send it on his verified youtube channel,.. I didn't tell  that to get attention or anything like that... I spoke for the sake of talking, despite being serious... Thanks again...

##

i seem to be lost

which way to WO?

Sorry, here now is AI Observer thread, you can ask some agent where it is, try chatGPT, Grok, manuz or similar..... hehehe