..... I wanted to post this chart:
To preface, this is not a pattern. It might look like one, because if it plays out it would be pattern, but so far this dynamic only happened twice before. I won't bore you with the specs of the indicator, but it's Tone Vays' version of TD Sequential (which granted most traders think is complete bullshit). But regardless, it made me consider a few things differently. Namely, that twice before on long-term scale, it highlights roughly where the lows of the bear market are created after breaking the
last level of parabolic support of the bull market (in absence of a better way to describe the green lines). Naturally this would suggest we are indeed likely to break ~$59K support level (where the line is right now), however not by as much as others might think, or for very long at all. While breaking this level of support is looking increasingly likely and it doesn't take a genius to see that, it doesn't suggest that $30K is on the table, but more like a fakeout capitaulation to $45K prior to a recovery in a few months at very worst. The previous levels of support that broke were $4,150 and $17,580, representing 20% below the level and 10% below the level roughly, respectfully. Ironically, the target this cycle would be 0% below the level if we were to extrapolate, ie not to actually break it.
But what's more interesting to me is if this level doesn't get broken as it'd be the first sign that the cycle is breaking, that the bull market was in fact
never broken, and in fact we just came down to long-term support (I think we can all agree at the current multi-year support level and 200 WMA, it is precisely that). It's also the first time that the 200 WMA is at a mutli-year support level, rather that simply at the base of the previous parabolic support. I reference this part as I'm not seeing any other indicator out there that suggests that price is at the last bull market level of support; instead it's quite the opposite, everything else suggests that it broke it a long-time ago etc, namely because price dropped 50%+ already.
I am not sure if I understand all of your points, yet even what seems to be your seeming skepticism of what comes off as overly bearish calls coming from some of dee udder peeps cannot always be known in advance, since we may or may not end up experiencing some of the seemingly outrageous negative price moves, and for sure there are all kinds of ongoing negative macro-factors that seem to be sucking up liquidity to the extent that the various AI markets and/or the SpaceX hype have much if any substance behind them.
Also it may well be that many of us have heard about some of the various ways that some of the new stock listing rules have recently been changed to allow various index fund inclusion into pump and dump (IPO) situations by loosening the time in market requirements for new listings before they can be added to index funds and/or pension funds, which may well cause increased liquidity and pumping into crap and hype offerings. Seems to be bit of a scandal, but what else is new. The new rules allow abilities for the hype to steal the money of broad swaths of the populations that use index funds, including pension managers... so yeah, semblances of artificial liquidity that might work to pump the market while robbing from some segments of the market during the pump and to give that value to other segments of the market during the likely upcoming dump... or maybe the pump and the dump is happening at the same time, since the normies will be forced to put value in through their pension managers and automated index fund reallocations, and the insiders will be simultaneously dumping while they are hyping it up... Again, what else is new, except just a new "creative" way to fleece dee people.
Also just to throw in the coincidence here, price reached $59,073 and the level is at $58,864 (CB), so the wick was $209 off that level. So I'll be the first to say that, maybe JJG is right, and retrospectively was right, that the cycle ended in 2024. This indicator seems to think that is possible now.
I am not sure what I am right about - except my tendencies to want to keep the 200-WMA as some sort of bottom indicator, even though once so far, historically, we have experienced a fairly extended time from June 2022 to October 2023 (16 months) that BTC prices spent a quite a bit of time below the 200-WMA and even stayed in a range as low 20% to 35% below the 200-WMA for about 9 weeks straight between November 9, 2022 and January 13, 2023.
Even though we all know that BTC buys and sells happen at spot price, from the perspective of this here cat, it seems a lot more settling to not get caught up in the "all over the place" inconsistencies of BTC spot prices, even while from time to time, we may well be able to potentially identify and take advantage of the sometimes existent arbitrage opportunities of perceived great differences between BTC spot prices and the 200-WMA.
That's my piece of hopium for the day, it will expire by the end of the week if price closes below 58,864 (at least the cycle breaking theory, bull market continuation). And to be honest no I haven't looked through dozens of indicators to find one that support this theory (ie trying to support the theory by finding the result that fits as a form of backwards engineering TA), but rather this has been an obscure indicator I've always paid attention to, as it's very Wall Street based, rather than crypto-popular. Oh and finally, unlike previous bear markets, there has been no resistance level established during this correction unlike both previous bear markets. I'm not saying the sky is the limit for a recovery, only that there is no resistance overhead for one based on this indicator.
Nice to hear your optimism, and I have been frequently been concerned about the applicability of well established models that are used on mature assets (or even other kinds of assets) being applied to bitcoin under the impression that bitcoin compares with some of the other assets, when bitcoin as an asset seems to be a bit of its own beast in terms of its likely ongoing growth that might not always be noticed or noticeable... which likely contributes to ongoing growth in the various network effects, even while it might be ongoingly being attacked and adopted at the same time.
I think that so many folks are ongoingly confused by the current status of markets, and I am not claiming to be any kind of an exception, even though surely many of us, including yours truly, like to consider bitcoin as one of the central forces and/or maybe the lens through which we try to understand the performance of other assets and other markets.
In the first week of June, when we got our correction from the lower $70ks down to $59,100, surely there were a lot of us who were wondering when the correction would stop, since when we are going through those kinds of corrections, at various points, it starts to feel that the "down" is never going to stop. So then it becomes nice to stabilize and to stop the bleed, at least for the moment. Consolidation can surely have a lot of meaning, and over the years, I have even tended to take advantage of consolidation periods and to sometimes rethink where I am at with my own financial/psychological balance (of course which includes some subliminal considerations of how I got here?) and then the part to prepare and perhaps makes some adjustments to where I think that we might be going.
So then I may well even ask myself questions in regards to whether I consider that adjustments might be needed. Am I sufficiently prepared for up, down and/or sideways? Did I get out of balance in the last BTC price move or maybe the prior several price moves that got me to the place where I am at? Most of the times in which I end up making adjustments, they do not tend to be too large, yet every once in a while, I feel that I need to intervene a bit more than usual... like for example if the price seems to be going down a lot, then I question if I am running out of money, and some variation of the opposite happens when the price is going up in regards to my thoughts about if I am stacking up too much money. I don't tend to have the problem of running out of BTC, even though surely historically, those kinds of thoughts have gone through my head, too.
To the extent that each of us might be consistent, we likely are trapped somewhat in the system that we had created for ourselves, and there have been several times that I had learned a bit of a lesson if I try to tweak too much of my system while it is in the middle of some kind of an extreme and/or uncomfortable place, so I tend to have to ride out where-ever I might be within the system, even if I might be bordering on second-guessing some aspects of its applicability and/or whether some tweaks might potentially put me into a more comfortable financial and/or psychological place.
5. DOJ Threatened Trump Over Ross Ulbricht Commutation in Final Hours of First TermURL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/politics/dan-loeb-reveals-doj-threat-to-trump-over-ross-ulbricht-commutation-in-final-hours-of-first-termPublished: 2026-06-09Summary: Hedge fund manager Dan Loeb says the Department of Justice warned President Donald Trump on his last day that they would "go after" him if he commuted Ross Ulbricht's sentence, and Trump withdrew it. The threat came while Jeffrey Rosen was acting Attorney General following William Barr's departure in late December 2020. Ulbricht served four additional years behind bars before receiving a full pardon early in Trump's second term in January 2025. Loeb made the claim on the All-In Podcast, and it is the first public report of such a direct threat from DOJ during clemency proceedings-though no specific official has been named to deliver it or corroborate the account independently. Ulbricht was never prosecuted for murder-for-hire despite widespread media claims to that effect.
This comes off as such ongoing gaslighting bullshit to try to make it seem as if Trump is so great for bitcoin and/or crypto and that he is a "friend of bitcoin" blah blah blah.
Instead of living in the past, free the Samurai devs, and take your boots off the necks of normies and our abilities to freely and privately transact in bitcoin without having to do all kinds of unnecessary and purposefully burdensome accounting...also allow Local bitcoins to come back.. Of course, no one in the administration wants Local Bitcoins to come back so that individual normies can put themselves in contact with other individual normies to be able to exchange bitcoin for cash without easy traceability.
i quoted my post. and then deleted.
this slipped buddy back enough for my buddy be blocked post to be on the exact same page and the multiple buddys were.
so.... you reorged the thread to double spend a post??
He moved around a few deck chairs in the process of our happen to be sinking anyway. In the whole scheme of things, no harm, no foul.
(What a world!!! What a world!!!! I can't believe that I am sticking up for Phil).
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