Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

What does it mean?

Does it relate to dee cornz?

I developed this indicator a couple of years ago and I’ve actually used it, taking profits around $117k last year. I consider the trading algorithm market tested.

For ease of visualizing, red and green vertical bars mark oscillator minima and maxima. Oscillator maxima align with price highs. Minima come at points where the bear leaves the scene unambiguously, choppy sideways price action has ended, and the bull is about take over. While the signals at minima miss the absolute market bottoms, they still show a good place to jump in and buy.  From the look of things, the next algo minimum is several months away.

The algorithm operates on the premise that bitcoin’s well known "four year price cycle" is real.  Equations including moving geometric means and an expanding window regression extract that periodic signal.

For you quants, I used an expanding window regression because the look-ahead bias of a static regression invalidates backtesting. And I used geometric means because linear measures like moving averages give badly distorted results on data series like bitcoin’s price, which covers multiple orders of magnitude.

Recently I developed a different algo in an attempt to peg market lows, which are harder to find algorithmically in real time than are the tops.  I wasn't able to make the algo peg the bottoms, but it does give an early warning signal.  It's on my Substack, including a spreadsheet that you can download, and a script.
https://substack.com/@michaelrobinson127536

Ah, I didn't put two and two together that the creator was actually here. And you.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

I put in a bid for 1 share of spaceX

I am in a queue for it on kraken.


I will likely pick up 10 shares of it and let it sit.

Phil - Space X may be a great investment (don't ever count Elon Musk out!). Especially if data centers on the moon becomes standard, and if Mars becomes a promising destination...

But there is another company currently in the pre-IPO stage that will clearly be a knockout winner - - it already is! Skydio ► https://www.skydio.com/

Accredited investors can buy Pre-IPO shares of Skydio now through pre-IPO marketplaces like EquityZen and Hiive.

These investments are made available by existing Skydio shareholders who sell their shares of the target company on pre-IPO marketplace platforms.  

► Skydio is truly remarkable: https://www.skydio.com/blog/streamlining-procurement-of-drones-for-defense-skydio-suas

The U.S. Army recently placed a record-breaking $52+ million order for over 2,500 Skydio X10D drones. It is the largest single-vendor tactical small Unmanned Aircraft System (sUAS) procurement in the Army's history, and the bid moved to an official award in under 72 hours. More to come!

► https://www.skydio.com/dock

Skydio currently has an enterprise valuation of $4.4B.

[Biodom]

What does it mean?

Does it relate to dee cornz?

I developed this indicator a couple of years ago and I’ve actually used it, taking profits around $117k last year. I consider the trading algorithm market tested.

For ease of visualizing, red and green vertical bars mark oscillator minima and maxima. Oscillator maxima align with price highs. Minima come at points where the bear leaves the scene unambiguously, choppy sideways price action has ended, and the bull is about take over. While the signals at minima miss the absolute market bottoms, they still show a good place to jump in and buy.  From the look of things, the next algo minimum is several months away.

The algorithm operates on the premise that bitcoin’s well known "four year price cycle" is real.  Equations including moving geometric means and an expanding window regression extract that periodic signal.

For you quants, I used an expanding window regression because the look-ahead bias of a static regression invalidates backtesting. And I used geometric means because linear measures like moving averages give badly distorted results on data series like bitcoin’s price, which covers multiple orders of magnitude.

Recently I developed a different algo in an attempt to peg market lows, which are harder to find algorithmically in real time than are the tops.  I wasn't able to make the algo peg the bottoms, but it does give an early warning signal.  It's on my Substack, including a spreadsheet that you can download, and a script.
https://substack.com/@michaelrobinson127536

Very interesting; the question is when, exactly, the lines appear as far as liveliness is concerned or do they appear post factum?
That said, one time hit at 117K is not really market-tested as it is a sample of one for which no statistical analysis is possible or is this a Bayesian prediction?

[BTCETFInvestor]

Everything is up

Hard to see BTC not balloon up more, right?

Not really, because who knows if Saylor will embark on the adventure of selling another 32 BTC again or will Trumpy choose a new target after his Middle Eastern adventure? Greenland is on ice, Cuba is in darkness, and North Korea in ballistic mode.

Michael Saylor and the MSTR President & CEO Phong Le, said the 32 BTC sell was merely a test.  Said the plan is to buy more BTC.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

I gotta say...

15 years and I'm still not tired of that joyous feeling you get when you rally to a price that just a couple weeks ago would have made you want to write a suicide note.

It probably helps that I have almost no Bitcoin, but still.

You are almost a no coiner?   Why? Are you being serious or is this some joke that I am not getting?

Well I could be exaggerating, and people say all kinds of things.  None of which should be believed lol.

But lets just say medical expenses can do a lot of damage to someone's savings.

No good insurance where you live?   Or maybe your particular things are not covered?

[OutOfMemory]

...

I think i remember i said that the actual image timestamp (date itself could be limited to a few hours of night) would be critical information.
However, i am just wondering how BTF got off my ignore list somehow?

[BTCETFInvestor]

...

I think i remember i said that the actual image timestamp (date itself could be limited to a few hours of night) would be critical information.
However, i am just wondering how BTF got off my ignore list somehow?

OOM - Who is this BTF character you're referring to?

[cAPSLOCK]

I gotta say...

15 years and I'm still not tired of that joyous feeling you get when you rally to a price that just a couple weeks ago would have made you want to write a suicide note.

It probably helps that I have almost no Bitcoin, but still.

You are almost a no coiner?   Why? Are you being serious or is this some joke that I am not getting?

Well I could be exaggerating, and people say all kinds of things.  None of which should be believed lol.

But lets just say medical expenses can do a lot of damage to someone's savings.

No good insurance where you live?   Or maybe your particular things are not covered?

The magnitude of the bills racked up. Co-insurance combined with services not well covered.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

I gotta say...

15 years and I'm still not tired of that joyous feeling you get when you rally to a price that just a couple weeks ago would have made you want to write a suicide note.

It probably helps that I have almost no Bitcoin, but still.

The feeling is even more real when holding a bit

[BTCETFInvestor]

I gotta say...

15 years and I'm still not tired of that joyous feeling you get when you rally to a price that just a couple weeks ago would have made you want to write a suicide note.

It probably helps that I have almost no Bitcoin, but still.

You are almost a no coiner?   Why? Are you being serious or is this some joke that I am not getting?

Well I could be exaggerating, and people say all kinds of things.  None of which should be believed lol.

But lets just say medical expenses can do a lot of damage to someone's savings.

No good insurance where you live?   Or maybe your particular things are not covered?

The magnitude of the bills racked up. Co-insurance combined with services not well covered.

@cAPS - Hope they got you all fixed up... 

[philipma1957]

I gotta say...

15 years and I'm still not tired of that joyous feeling you get when you rally to a price that just a couple weeks ago would have made you want to write a suicide note.

It probably helps that I have almost no Bitcoin, but still.

You are almost a no coiner?   Why? Are you being serious or is this some joke that I am not getting?

Well I could be exaggerating, and people say all kinds of things.  None of which should be believed lol.

But lets just say medical expenses can do a lot of damage to someone's savings.

No good insurance where you live?   Or maybe your particular things are not covered?

The magnitude of the bills racked up. Co-insurance combined with services not well covered.

Yeah my wife and I have really really really good coverage.

But we pay for it.  IE MORE than 500,000 usd  in premiums since 1986.

And I would say even with the premiums we paid  we still paid 200,000 or more in bills since 1986.

So 700,000 into medical and likely over a million by the time we leave the world since premiums now are over 22,000 a year.

It is not fun having had 3 long term medical conditions  for myself and my wife having had the covid issues from 2019 til now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

Built on hopium.
Cooled by the tears of weak hands.
Cho cho to the moon!

No one likes cycles,
But cycles, like cats, are tough.
They refuse to die!

BobC keeps learning.
His daddy loves him to bits.
Cute little WO-bot!

Paper Bitcoin boy,
Please, return to the mountains.
WO ain't good for you!

As for doxing Jay,
Your AI girlfriend can't help.
We know you don't know!

An utter disgrace!
Starting new accounts is cheap.
Manning up, that's hard.

She turned seventeen.
Some red, a little more green.
Baby, what a queen!

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

I gotta say...

15 years and I'm still not tired of that joyous feeling you get when you rally to a price that just a couple weeks ago would have made you want to write a suicide note.

It probably helps that I have almost no Bitcoin, but still.

You are almost a no coiner?   Why? Are you being serious or is this some joke that I am not getting?

Well I could be exaggerating, and people say all kinds of things.  None of which should be believed lol.

But lets just say medical expenses can do a lot of damage to someone's savings.

No good insurance where you live?   Or maybe your particular things are not covered?

The magnitude of the bills racked up. Co-insurance combined with services not well covered.

Yeah my wife and I have really really really good coverage.

But we pay for it.  IE MORE than 500,000 usd  in premiums since 1986.

And I would say even with the premiums we paid  we still paid 200,000 or more in bills since 1986.

So 700,000 into medical and likely over a million by the time we leave the world since premiums now are over 22,000 a year.

It is not fun having had 3 long term medical conditions  for myself and my wife having had the covid issues from 2019 til now.

Phil - That's a lot of premiums paid over 40 years for you and your wife. I'm a little surprised it has been that high with FEHB medical; and now almost $1k each.

Maybe you went with higher tier coverage plans and the plans included a prescription drugs.

[nutildah]

Proudhon didn't crap
on WOers; he'd post bear takes
just to take the piss.

[BTCETFInvestor]

I gotta say...

15 years and I'm still not tired of that joyous feeling you get when you rally to a price that just a couple weeks ago would have made you want to write a suicide note.

It probably helps that I have almost no Bitcoin, but still.

You are almost a no coiner?   Why? Are you being serious or is this some joke that I am not getting?

Well I could be exaggerating, and people say all kinds of things.  None of which should be believed lol.

But lets just say medical expenses can do a lot of damage to someone's savings.

No good insurance where you live?   Or maybe your particular things are not covered?

The magnitude of the bills racked up. Co-insurance combined with services not well covered.

@cAPS - Was your co-insurance an employer-sponsored health insurance plan, or a plan you purchased individually? Most employer-sponsored health insurance plans protect individuals against extreme medical costs.