Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[vapourminer]

buddy getting carried away again

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[WatChe]

buddy getting carried away again

Buddy streak of 5 finally broken by you

[OutOfMemory]

Made a buy today, was a bit tired of waiting and accumulating fiat.
I can't complain about any bad feelings 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[philipma1957]

66k and change looks a lot better than 59.1  so we did a double bottom of 59  and change here ismhoping we get back to baby bull.

Which is 71k.

I now have 2 btc plus

And I have 2  shares of spacex along with 10 Trump coins.

Here is hoping to see that baby bull soon

[d_eddie]

Of course I like the current price action, but it might be just a temporary relief because of Iran war easing. I'm trying to get a zoomed out view; sorry if it comes across as a raindrop on an assembling parade. Some critical thinking is good fuel for discussion. A blind permabull post wouldn't be as interesting - or useful.

Reasons not to be too cheerful:

- ECB rises the base rate. JCB soon to follow. Say goodbye to the yen carry trade, as marginal as it may have become. The Fed might be the last to hike rates, or they might even stay flat and do nothing. The final call, I suspect, is Bessent's - still the real puppeteer behind the Fed. Still, ECB and JCB aren't dealing with peanuts.

- Arthur Hayes's piece on AI draining the capital market at the expense of other "risk assets" such as bitcoin sounds true to me. ( https://cryptohayes.medium.com/reality-test-c8e4f49def52 ). OK, bitcoin isn't  a risk asset for the majority of gentlemen gathered here, but we're talking about the suits working in finance.

TL;DR: Still a bit of pain ahead. However, I am as bullish as ever longer term. A permaslowbull, if you like.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Hueristic]

https://youtu.be/T23P0x5IQdk?t=455

[BTCETFInvestor]

Supply Reserve of BTC on all exchanges has started to decrease.



Maybe Michael Saylor will help out by buying 10k more BTC soon!



It's got a ways to go to get back to what the exchange supply was back on April 21, 2026, but it's headed in the right direction for 'Supply Shock' to happen when the supply of BTC is depleted...








As exchange reserves approach the 500,000 BTC mark, the market typically enters a liquidity crunch. In this state ‘slippage’ increases and large buy orders trigger massive price spikes because there isn't enough ‘sell-side’ liquidity to absorb the trade.

This causes incentivized inflows - The price must rise high enough to convince ‘Long-Term Holders’ (who currently hold over 14 million BTC off-exchange) to move their coins from storage onto exchanges for sale.

On-chain data shows that roughly 75% of the supply hasn't moved in years and cannot be expected to move. This includes corporate treasuries (like MicroStrategy), large countries, nation-states, U.S states, and long-term ‘Diamond Hands’. It is estimated that 90% of these LTH will continue holding and those BTC will never be moved onto exchanges.  Due to 'supply shock' the price of BTC will soar...

[philipma1957]

Of course I like the current price action, but it might be just a temporary relief because of Iran war easing. I'm trying to get a zoomed out view; sorry if it comes across as a raindrop on an assembling parade. Some critical thinking is good fuel for discussion. A blind permabull post wouldn't be as interesting - or useful.

Reasons not to be too cheerful:

- ECB rises the base rate. JCB soon to follow. Say goodbye to the yen carry trade, as marginal as it may have become. The Fed might be the last to hike rates, or they might even stay flat and do nothing. The final call, I suspect, is Bessent's - still the real puppeteer behind the Fed. Still, ECB and JCB aren't dealing with peanuts.

- Arthur Hayes's piece on AI draining the capital market at the expense of other "risk assets" such as bitcoin sounds true to me. ( https://cryptohayes.medium.com/reality-test-c8e4f49def52 ). OK, bitcoin isn't  a risk asset for the majority of gentlemen gathered here, but we're talking about the suits working in finance.

TL;DR: Still a bit of pain ahead. However, I am as bullish as ever longer term. A permaslowbull, if you like.

However, the fear of purchasing the dip is an issue many individuals experience since no one can be certain about whether the market will bounce back quickly enough. As such, being patient and having trust in oneself is crucial. Strangely, most individuals feel secure when they purchase after the increase in prices although the optimal time was when the price dropped.

Yeah, I agree that nobody really knows whether the market will recover or not. But there are always people who keep holding their assets until the very end, believing that prices will eventually start moving up again. And honestly, quite often they turn out to be right in the long run.
What I’m curious about is how other people on this forum deal with these kinds of market drops. How do you stay calm when your portfolio is deep in the red? What helps you get through that period mentally? Do you just stop checking the charts, keep buying little by little, focus on long-term goals, or simply remind yourself that volatility is part of the game?

I bolded the problem for BTC too many people think that is a true statement and not a false belief statement. Thus they tend to help fulfill the statement by pushing their belief in it.

Here is a true statement that no one wants to believe " the cure for war is simple have only oral sex" instead people choose to believe "war will never stop happening"

So by not believing and practicing the true statement " the cure for war is simple have only oral sex"

and believing and practicing the false statement "war will never stop happening"

war goes on.


this is the issue for crypto people believe in the 4 year price cycle and try everything they can do to make it true.

I quoted this from altcointalks the battle is fought in these terms above.

this is why BTC is in a struggle too many think

Yeah, I agree that nobody really knows whether the market will recover or not

and too many think four year price cycles are true.

The suit use this against BTC and here we are at 66598 and not 123,456 or better yet 202,202

So I now own 5 shares of  spcx and BTC is going to mars

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Lucius]

We have certainly been conditioned to expect the missles to start falling in the next 24h or so.

Hope not. Every day they don't is a good day.

These are strange times, they're signing peace documents and at the same time shooting at each other. As for the rockets and all other missiles used in the attack on Iran and the defense of neighboring countries, some reports say that the US has emptied its warehouses so much that it will take them years to replenish the stockpiles - especially if you consider how many weapons were sent to Ukraine before that.

So in a way, it's good that everyone signs that agreement and says they won because both sides claim to be the winners anyway.

[vapourminer]

We have certainly been conditioned to expect the missles to start falling in the next 24h or so.

Hope not. Every day they don't is a good day.

These are strange times, they're signing peace documents and at the same time shooting at each other.

peace (pinky promise) on monday for stonks bag holders to unload. then war again on friday for the "buy the war dip" folks.

[BTCETFInvestor]

According to an 8-K filing submitted to the SEC, MicroStrategy acquired 1,587 Bitcoin for approximately $100 million between June 8 and June 14, 2026.

Strategy now holds a staggering 846,842 BTC.

The goal of Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy, reaching the milestone treasury of 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) by the end of 2026 is clearly in focus and virtually sure to happen.

Strategy needs an additional 153,158 BTC to reach the goal of 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) by the end of 2026.  

Next up will be the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to reach the 1 million BTC target.

During this period of time when the United States acquires 1 million BTC for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve there will be many nation-states also acquiring Bitcoin for their country's reserve. This will quickly deplete the supply of BTC on all exchanges, creating a 'supply shock' that will drive the price of Bitcoin to new all time highs that will be reoccurring.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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