Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[nutildah]

Grok really clamping down on celebrity likenesses

[Biodom]

Gen Z and Gen Alpha did not figure out one thing yet:

bitcoin as a contra trade to AI

1. everybody (boomers) on WS are on AI train now.
2. Funds got sucked out of bitcoin to invest in AI.
3. AI-associated companies (as there re no pure AI stocks yet) had gigantic revenue and stock price increases in the last 12 mo (MU, SNDK). Are we close to the peak in those? Maybe, maybe not.

Since Gen Z and oldest GenAlpha are so critical of AI, why don't they invest in something contrarian, like bitcoin?

I know why: they don't have much money.

BTW, is possible that AI ASICS would eventually blow away Nvidia similarly how ASICS blew away GPUs in bitcoin mining.

EDIT: BTW, Musk is smarter with megapod associated with supercharging stations. It is easier to replace old chips with the new ones in a smaller facility like this. And...no large data center problems.

[philipma1957]

Gen Z and Gen Alpha did not figure out one thing yet:

bitcoin as a contra trade to AI

1. everybody (boomers) on WS are on AI train now.
2. Funds got sucked out of bitcoin to invest in AI.
3. AI-associated companies (as there re no pure AI stocks yet) had gigantic revenue and stock price increases in the last 12 mo (MU, SNDK). Are we close to the peak in those? Maybe, maybe not.

Since Gen Z and oldest GenAlpha are so critical of AI, why don't they invest in something contrarian, like bitcoin?

I know why: they don't have much money.

BTW, is possible that AI ASICS would eventually blow away Nvidia similarly how ASICS blew away GPUs in bitcoin mining.

or Nvidia develops its own ai asics for gpu/replacement

looks like Saylor found a nice chunk of change under the table somewhat.

likely a musk pledge as musk knows just how little to give to sayer to keep him on the hook.

The bad thing is it means prices will be depressed for a while ( but not in 45k-59k range) more like 59k-72k range cause that still keeps Saylor on the hook.

[Biodom]

Gen Z and Gen Alpha did not figure out one thing yet:

bitcoin as a contra trade to AI

1. everybody (boomers) on WS are on AI train now.
2. Funds got sucked out of bitcoin to invest in AI.
3. AI-associated companies (as there re no pure AI stocks yet) had gigantic revenue and stock price increases in the last 12 mo (MU, SNDK). Are we close to the peak in those? Maybe, maybe not.

Since Gen Z and oldest GenAlpha are so critical of AI, why don't they invest in something contrarian, like bitcoin?

I know why: they don't have much money.

BTW, is possible that AI ASICS would eventually blow away Nvidia similarly how ASICS blew away GPUs in bitcoin mining.

or Nvidia develops its own ai asics for gpu/replacement

looks like Saylor found a nice chunk of change under the table somewhat.

likely a musk pledge as musk knows just how little to give to sayer to keep him on the hook.

The bad thing is it means prices will be depressed for a while ( but not in 45k-59k range) more like 59k-72k range cause that still keeps Saylor on the hook.

I feel like we may hit 67-72k in July...if it progresses as usual.
Gareth Soloway agrees  
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfZdAb0OHDg

[goldkingcoiner]

I feel like the overinflated AI bubble is going to pop any day now. And when it does, everyone will come running back to Bitcoin.

How long can they sustain such unsustainable AI investments without any new breakthroughs? Are they hoping for AGI soon? Quantum computing? There's only so much demand for AI generated slop.

[philipma1957]

I feel like the overinflated AI bubble is going to pop any day now. And when it does, everyone will come running back to Bitcoin.

How long can they sustain such unsustainable AI investments without any new breakthroughs? Are they hoping for AGI soon? Quantum computing? There's only so much demand for AI generated slop.

as long as they do not invent uploads like they have on the amazon show

ai is shit. but if they invent that, things will get interesting.

[Hhampuz]

I feel like the overinflated AI bubble is going to pop any day now. And when it does, everyone will come running back to Bitcoin.

How long can they sustain such unsustainable AI investments without any new breakthroughs? Are they hoping for AGI soon? Quantum computing? There's only so much demand for AI generated slop.

Sadly I think it could be a multi-year sort of bubble. If Satoshi was parading around as the "CEO" of bitcoin you'd see a lot more capital enter this space, boomers in charge of so much money it is laughable.

EDIT;

"Baby Boomers: Control over $83 trillion to $85 trillion (more than 50% of total U.S. wealth). This cohort holds large amounts of real estate and retirement funds acquired during highly favorable economic decades."

"Generation X: Account for roughly $42 trillion to $43 trillion. This is notably more than the combined total of the Silent Generation, Millennials, and Gen Z."

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

I am not sure why WS always complains about bitcoin declines when:

1. ORCL is down 55% from the Sept 2025 top (very similar to btc). A strange correlation, indeed.
2. MSFT is down 34% since Aug 2025
3. META is down about 30% since Aug 2025
4. NFLX is down 45% since July 2025.
5. ADBE is down 71% since 2022.
6. CRM is down 57% since Jan 2025
4. Silver is down 52% since Feb 2026...nobody says a peep.

This points to an agenda and a story.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobLawblaw]

Hey WOers (with AI experience),
Can I make an offline, open-source AI that can parse the contents of a folder and answer questions based on the data in that folder?
And can I keep adding new files in that folder and have the AI auto-parse the new content?
Can OpenClaw do that?
Asking for a friend (colleague, actually).
Thanks.

Absolutely. I did this for a legal case we're involved in. Got Hermes to build python scripts to OCR everything and insert into a database for fast searching.

The trick is, don't expect the AI to do it for you. Tell the AI to generate the tools and pipeline to do it for you.

[hypebrother]

I feel like the overinflated AI bubble is going to pop any day now. And when it does, everyone will come running back to Bitcoin.

How long can they sustain such unsustainable AI investments without any new breakthroughs? Are they hoping for AGI soon? Quantum computing? There's only so much demand for AI generated slop.

as long as they do not invent uploads like they have on the amazon show

ai is shit. but if they invent that, things will get interesting.

unsustainable ai investments and the new kind of scamming techniques which involves big corporations which people trust for granted which is obviously not stupid.
there is a reason why companies lay off employees and then they ....add drama here...

coming to the real threat of identity theft, blackmailing and also defamation which uses ai tools is the new norm of organized criminals and terror groups.

let's just walk back 70 years and realize that we began with vaccum tubes and had high hopes of cyberpunk and shit

and now we have this...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

Hey WOers (with AI experience),
Can I make an offline, open-source AI that can parse the contents of a folder and answer questions based on the data in that folder?
And can I keep adding new files in that folder and have the AI auto-parse the new content?
Can OpenClaw do that?
Asking for a friend (colleague, actually).
Thanks.

Absolutely. I did this for a legal case we're involved in. Got Hermes to build python scripts to OCR everything and insert into a database for fast searching.
The trick is, don't expect the AI to do it for you. Tell the AI to generate the tools and pipeline to do it for you.

Perfect, thanks. Will tell him tomorrow. The main things are open-source and offline, due to IP issues.

[philipma1957]

I am not sure why WS always complains about bitcoin declines when:

1. ORCL is down 55% from the Sept 2025 top (very similar to btc). A strange correlation, indeed.
2. MSFT is down 34% since Aug 2025
3. META is down about 30% since Aug 2025
4. NFLX is down 45% since July 2025.
5. ADBE is down 71% since 2022.
6. CRM is down 57% since Jan 2025
4. Silver is down 52% since Feb 2026...nobody says a peep.

This points to an agenda and a story.

gold is down close to 30% since its peak

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

Hey WOers (with AI experience),
Can I make an offline, open-source AI that can parse the contents of a folder and answer questions based on the data in that folder?
And can I keep adding new files in that folder and have the AI auto-parse the new content?
Can OpenClaw do that?
Asking for a friend (colleague, actually).
Thanks.

Absolutely. I did this for a legal case we're involved in. Got Hermes to build python scripts to OCR everything and insert into a database for fast searching.
The trick is, don't expect the AI to do it for you. Tell the AI to generate the tools and pipeline to do it for you.

Perfect, thanks. Will tell him tomorrow. The main things are open-source and offline, due to IP issues.

Make sure to sandbox it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's News Digest - 2026-06-29 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-06-29 09:02 PM CT

Bitcoin is grinding sideways near $59,855 on this Monday, holding a fragile 0.80% gain as the market digests a dominant corporate disclosure from Strive. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 15 in Extreme Fear for a seventh straight day, reflecting a sentiment that has deteriorated sharply over the past week. With price hovering 5.6% below its 30-day moving average, the tone is one of cautious observation rather than panic or recovery.

Outlook: I am watching for the ISM Manufacturing PMI and June nonfarm payrolls data to see if macro catalysts can reverse the current downward drift. The critical level to reclaim is $62,000, while $58,800 serves as the immediate support floor before further downside risk emerges. If the weekly death cross materializes as analysts predict, it may signal a cycle low arriving in late 2026.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $59,855.00 (+0.80%).

The Fear & Greed Index sits at 15, signaling extreme fear, yet the dominant market theme is a net outflow of coins from exchanges, suggesting holders are moving assets to cold storage rather than preparing to sell. This divergence between bearish price action and cautious on-chain behavior points to reduced selling urgency rather than active capitulation. The narrowing daily price range indicates that volatility is compressing, which often precedes a directional move once sentiment shifts. If exchange outflows persist while price stabilizes near $60,000, the market may be building a base for a relief rally; however, a breakdown below $55,000 would invalidate this thesis and likely trigger further downside.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Range (50%): triggers: price remains between $55,000 and $65,000 while exchange outflows continue. Invalidation: a decisive break above $65,000 or below $55,000.
- Relief Rally (30%): triggers: macro catalysts improve sentiment, pushing Fear & Greed above 30 and price toward $68,000. Invalidation: failure to hold $55,000 support or renewed exchange inflows.
- Continued Decline (20%): triggers: macro headwinds intensify, breaking $55,000 and targeting $50,000. Invalidation: sustained exchange outflows and stabilization above $55,000.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Strive Treasury Disclosure: Strive filed an 8-K with the SEC disclosing a Bitcoin treasury of 19,864 BTC with no new purchases during the reporting week.

- Capital Rotation: Capital rotated out of digital asset and gold ETFs into semiconductor funds, with analysts attributing the decline to a broader tech correction rather than crypto-specific weakness.

- Strive Cash Position: The company holds $141.7 million in cash, down $2.8 million from the prior period, while its STRC preferred stock position lost $7.1 million in fair value.

- Strive Dividend Extension: Strive began daily cash dividends on its SATA preferred stock on June 16, extending its cash runway to 18 months to cover those obligations through potential market downturns.

TOP STORIES

1. Strive Reports Flat Bitcoin Holdings and $141.7M Cash Position
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/strive-asst-holds-19864-btc-no-new
Published: 2026-06-29 10:15 AM CT
Summary: Strive filed an 8-K with the SEC on June 29, 2026, disclosing a Bitcoin treasury of 19,864 BTC with no new purchases during the reporting week. The company holds $141.7 million in cash, down $2.8 million from the prior period, while its STRC preferred stock position lost $7.1 million in fair value. Bitcoin currently trades near $59,000, leaving Strive with a paper loss of roughly $6,000 per coin against its $65,850 average acquisition cost. The firm maintains a debt-free structure with no encumbered Bitcoin, a design CEO Matthew Cole says allows the company to either accumulate aggressively or wait patiently. Strive also began daily cash dividends on its SATA preferred stock on June 16, extending its cash runway to 18 months to cover those obligations through potential market downturns.

2. Bitcoin Selloff Tracks Tech Correction and Credit Unwind
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/why-bitcoin-falling-today-btc-095514559.html
Published: 2026-06-29 05:55 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin slid toward $59,000 as capital rotated out of digital asset and gold ETFs into semiconductor funds. Analysts attributed the decline to a broader tech correction rather than crypto-specific weakness. Research firm Capital Flows described the move as a credit unwind, noting that banks were issuing credit at all-time highs even as the market insisted liquidity was contracting. Crypto analyst Crypto Rover highlighted an impending weekly death cross, a pattern that historically preceded a 28% drop and may signal a cycle low arriving in late 2026. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits remained neutral as Bitcoin fell 0.8% over the past 24 hours.

3. Bitcoin RSI Divergence and Macro Signals at $60K
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/btc-price-rsi-prints-key-2026-signal-five-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week
Published: 2026-06-29
Summary: Bitcoin trades near $60,000 as June posts its worst monthly decline since the 2022 bear market, with CoinGlass data showing a 19% loss. Analysts highlight a bullish RSI divergence on multiple timeframes, noting that previous dips in 2026 lacked this specific technical signal. The price action draws comparisons to the $30,000 level in mid-2022, where Bitcoin spent months testing support before breaking lower. Macro catalysts include the upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI report and June nonfarm payrolls, while historical seasonality suggests July often reverses June losses. Onchain data from CryptoQuant shows the first signs of a market cleanup, though some analysts believe the current bear trend remains 71% complete.

4. Bitcoin Holds $60K As Selling Slows But Bottom May Not Be In
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-faces-critical-test-as-bulls-aim-to-hold-60k-did-btc-bottom
Published: 2026-06-29
Summary: Bitcoin trades near $60,300 as retail investors exit positions while institutions maintain a cautious hold. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 36 (*Bad Reporting: FNG is currently 15 -BobC), reflecting a market divided between fearful retail sellers and patient corporate buyers. Strategy accumulated 3,600 BTC for $236 million in June, though overall institutional buying pace has slowed significantly. Open interest in futures contracts declined from $20.1 billion to $19.92 billion over two weeks, signaling an orderly rather than panicked unwinding of leverage. The price must reclaim $62,000 to confirm a recovery, with $58,800 serving as the critical support level before further downside risk emerges.

5. Analyst Warns Bitcoin's Decline May Mirror 2022 Bear Market
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/analyst-warns-bitcoins-rare-decline-195751075.html
Published: 2026-06-29 03:57 PM CT
Summary: Bitcoin trades near $58,990 as the asset approaches a rare three-quarter losing streak. The cryptocurrency has shed nearly 20% over the past month and remains down more than 32% year to date. Analyst Rekt Capital argues the current cycle closely echoes the brutal 2022 bear market that drove prices from $40,000 to $16,000. He points to the 50-month exponential moving average near $65,600 as a key resistance level that could flip support into overhead pressure. The technical picture leans bearish as Bitcoin holds below this long-term trend line.

6. Strategy Unveils $1.25B Bitcoin Sales Framework Amid Market Slump
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/strategy-mstr-surges-12-bitcoin-stocks
Published: 2026-06-29
Summary: Strategy shares climbed 14% on Monday after the company announced a new capital structure that authorizes up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales. The firm also approved $1 billion in common stock buybacks and $1 billion in preferred security repurchases. Strategy holds 847,363 BTC acquired at an average cost of $75,651, leaving the company with significant unrealized losses as Bitcoin trades near $60,000. The board raised the dividend rate on its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock to 12% annually, effective July 1. Bitcoin has dropped more than 18% this month, weighed down by six consecutive weeks of ETF outflows and broader risk-off pressure.

7. Fidelity Identifies Five Catalysts to End the Crypto Winter
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/fidelity-5-factors-bitcoin-crypto-winter
Published: 2026-06-29
Summary: Bitcoin trades below $60,000 in late June 2026, sitting roughly 53% off its October 2025 all-time high above $126,200. Fidelity outlines five potential catalysts that could end the current downturn, starting with the historical four-year cycle that points to a possible floor around November 2026. The firm highlights the CLARITY Act as a key regulatory development, noting the bill passed the House in 2025 and awaits a Senate hearing on July 17. Fidelity also points to Federal Reserve easing, real-world asset tokenization, and a potential Magnificent Seven corporate Bitcoin purchase as factors that could shift market sentiment. The report cautions that historical patterns vary in length and that the biggest market catalysts often arrive as surprises rather than predictable events.

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