Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

My non-systematic rebuttal to ^ :

1. Vinny Lingham is saying that bitcoin is in trouble and should go down...every time this fella speaks so negatively, bitcoin bottoms within 2-4 weeks. He is bitcoin's Cramer in my mind.

2. The BIP-110 fight is oddly reminiscent of the 2017 fork, after which bitcoin popped 10-16X in a matter of a few months. I don't expect 10X, but the situation looks similar in a way.
Btw, the same Vinny opined in Mar 2017 that btc is going to $700-800 upon fork implementation or before it (it went from $1260 to $903, then to 20000 within 8 months or so).

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[[btc]]

*yawn* Goodnight, @ChartBuddy:

[okorieemmanuel]

My non-systematic rebuttal to ^ :

1. Vinny Lingham is saying that bitcoin is in trouble and should go down...every time this fella speaks so negatively, bitcoin bottoms within 2-4 weeks. He is bitcoin's Cramer in my mind.

2. The BIP-110 fight is oddly reminiscent of the 2017 fork, after which bitcoin popped 10-16X in a matter of a few months. I don't expect 10X, but the situation looks similar in a way.
Btw, the same Vinny opined in Mar 2017 that btc is going to $700-800 upon fork implementation or before it (it went from $1260 to $903, then to 20000 within 8 months or so).

That means the probability of Bitcoin rising when this VINNY LINGHAM say this type of information increases exponentially!!! Interestingly the market is behaving somehow in this last days of the month even with price going low. More information is required!!!

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[vapourminer]

low bandwidth buddy block

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[vapourminer]

so, squirrels can fall forever and still land ok as their terminal velocity at 1 G and 1 ATM is something under 20 mph. they just walk away.

explains the squirrels leaping off my roof trying for the bird feeders.

[ChartBuddy]

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[philipma1957]

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58.3k do we crack 58 and do 57 or what?

[ChartBuddy]

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[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's News Digest - 2026-06-30 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-06-30 09:02 AM CT

Bitcoin grinds lower on a Tuesday as the Fear & Greed Index remains locked in Extreme Fear for a seventh straight day. Strategy unveiled a $1.25 billion credit framework to fund dollar reserves, adding to the narrative of corporate liquidation pressure even as the firm's shares surged 14% on the news. The market trades well below its 30-day average, reflecting a sentiment where retail investors are exiting while institutions accumulate at a slower pace.

Outlook: Investors should watch the July 17 Senate hearing on the CLARITY Act, which could provide the regulatory clarity needed to shift sentiment away from Extreme Fear. The critical support level at $58,800 will determine whether the current pause in aggressive selling holds or if downside pressure toward $56,000 resumes.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $58,572.00 (-1.40%).

Exchange netflows dominate the current narrative, signaling that the primary market driver is the movement of coins between custodians rather than spot demand. The 30-day decline of 20.3% suggests a sustained risk-off regime where buyers have not yet stepped in to absorb the supply. If exchange outflows continue to accelerate, it may indicate that holders are moving assets to cold storage, which would reduce immediate selling pressure. Conversely, if inflows spike, it could signal that miners or long-term holders are preparing to offload positions, potentially extending the current downtrend.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation (50%): triggers: exchange netflows stabilize near zero; daily price range narrows to under 3%. Invalidation: a break below $55,000 with rising exchange inflows.
- Continued Decline (35%): triggers: exchange netflows turn positive and exceed 5,000 BTC daily; Fear & Greed drops below 10. Invalidation: a sustained move above $62,000 with declining exchange inflows.
- Sharp Rebound (15%): triggers: exchange netflows turn deeply negative for three consecutive days; volume spikes above 20,000 BTC in a single session. Invalidation: failure to hold $60,000 after the initial bounce.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Strategy's Credit Framework: Strategy unveiled a new Digital Credit Capital Framework that authorizes up to $1.25 billion in bitcoin sales to fund a U.S. dollar reserve and cover debt obligations.

- CLARITY Act Progress: The bill passed the House in 2025 and awaits a Senate hearing on July 17, with Galaxy Digital assigning only a 50% probability it becomes law before the August Senate recess.

- Long-Term Holder Supply: Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten points to a record 14.7 million BTC held by long-term holders as a signal that the market may have already bottomed.

- Retail Capital Rotation: Retail investors appear to be rotating capital from Bitcoin and gold into semiconductor ETFs, which have seen over $20 billion in cumulative inflows.

TOP STORIES

1. Strategy Announces $1.25B Bitcoin Sales Framework Amid Market Slump
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/strategy-mstr-surges-12-bitcoin-stocks
Published: 2026-06-29 03:03 PM CT
Summary: Strategy unveiled a new Digital Credit Capital Framework that authorizes up to $1.25 billion in bitcoin sales to fund a U.S. dollar reserve and cover debt obligations. The company also approved $1 billion in common stock buybacks and $1 billion in preferred security repurchases. Strategy currently holds 847,363 BTC purchased at an average price of $75,651, leaving the firm with significant unrealized losses as bitcoin trades near $60,000. Shares of Strategy surged 14% to roughly $94 on the announcement, while bitcoin itself dropped 6% over the past week amid six consecutive weeks of ETF outflows.

2. Record Long-Term Bitcoin Supply Suggests Early Bottom, Analysts Say
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/news/record-bitcoin-holder-supply-early-bottom-swan-ceo
Published: 2026-06-30
Summary: Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten points to a record 14.7 million BTC held by long-term holders as a signal that the market may have already bottomed. This view contrasts with Galaxy Digital founder Jiang Zhuoer, who projects a cycle low between October and December 2026 near $42,000 to $44,000. The long-term holder supply has risen 14% since late November, indicating sustained conviction among investors who have held assets for over 155 days. Grayscale warns that failure to pass the CLARITY Act could force companies like Strategy to deleverage, potentially pushing prices lower. Galaxy Digital currently assigns only a 50% probability to the CLARITY Act becoming law before the August Senate recess.

3. Bitcoin Holds $60K As Selling Slows But Bottom May Not Be In
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-faces-critical-test-as-bulls-aim-to-hold-60k-did-btc-bottom
Published: 2026-06-29
Summary: Bitcoin trades near $60,300 as retail investors exit positions while institutions like Strategy continue accumulating at a slower pace. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 36 (Reported FNG value appears outdated; current reading is 15), reflecting a market divided between fearful retail sellers and cautious institutional buyers. Open interest in Bitcoin futures has declined to $19.92 billion, and funding rates have dropped from 0.25% to 0.12%, suggesting the most aggressive forced selling has subsided. Strategy purchased 3,600 BTC for $236 million in June, but broader corporate treasuries remain on hold rather than aggressively buying. The price must reclaim $62,000 to confirm a recovery, with $58,800 serving as the critical support level before potential downside to $56,000.

4. Fidelity Identifies Five Catalysts to End the Crypto Winter
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/fidelity-5-factors-bitcoin-crypto-winter
Published: 2026-06-29
Summary: Bitcoin trades below $60,000 in late June 2026, sitting roughly 53% off its October 2025 all-time high above $126,200. Fidelity outlines five potential catalysts that could end the current downturn, starting with the historical four-year cycle that points to a possible floor around November 2026. The firm highlights the CLARITY Act as a key regulatory development, noting the bill passed the House in 2025 and awaits a Senate hearing on July 17. Fidelity also points to Federal Reserve easing and emerging use cases like real-world asset tokenization and stablecoins as drivers for renewed price action. The report acknowledges that sustained institutional adoption in 2026 has not yet sparked a new bull market, though a major move by a Magnificent Seven company could change the calculus.

5. Bitcoin Put-Call Ratio Hits 12-Month High as ETF Outflows Continue
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-put-call-ratio-hits-1-year-high-are-bears-preparing-for-drop-to-55k
Published: 2026-06-29
Summary: The premium put-call ratio on Deribit reached $115 million versus $16 million in calls, marking the widest imbalance in over a year. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded seven consecutive weeks of net outflows, undermining hopes for a sustained recovery above $60,000. Strategy announced $1.2 billion in fresh cash from share sales and set aside $1.25 billion in Bitcoin for potential liquidation. Retail investors appear to be rotating capital from Bitcoin and gold into semiconductor ETFs, which have seen over $20 billion in cumulative inflows. The 30-day options delta skew stands at 19%, indicating market makers remain unwilling to hold downside price exposure.

6. Strive Holds 19,864 BTC With $141.7M Cash and No New Purchases
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/strive-asst-holds-19864-btc-no-new
Published: 2026-06-29
Summary: Strive Inc. reported a static Bitcoin treasury of 19,864 BTC as of June 26, 2026, with no acquisitions made during the reporting week. The company holds $141.7 million in cash, a $2.8 million decline from the prior period, while its STRC preferred stock position lost $7.1 million in fair value. Bitcoin currently trades near $59,000, leaving the 19,864 BTC holding at a market value of approximately $1.19 billion and below the $65,850 average cost basis from the most recent purchase. The firm maintains a debt-free structure with an 18-month cash reserve runway, positioning itself to either accumulate more or hold steady through market volatility.

newspost.py Version: v1.3.0 | Model: Ornith-1.0-35B-heretic-Q4_K_M.gguf (26729MiB)

[Lucius]

I am not sure why WS always complains about bitcoin declines when:

1. ORCL is down 55% from the Sept 2025 top (very similar to btc). A strange correlation, indeed.
2. MSFT is down 34% since Aug 2025
3. META is down about 30% since Aug 2025
4. NFLX is down 45% since July 2025.
5. ADBE is down 71% since 2022.
6. CRM is down 57% since Jan 2025
4. Silver is down 52% since Feb 2026...nobody says a peep.

This points to an agenda and a story.

Of course, it's an agenda they want to influence the mainstream media, which then spreads FUD and declares Bitcoin dead, and that then creates the idea in the mind of the average Joe that stocks or gold are still something to be preferred over Bitcoin. The guys from WS and all the politicians in the world can pretend that they have nothing against Bitcoin, but something like that is completely contrary to what they stand for.


By the way, it's a sad day for the US Army, because one of the most respected generals has become another in a series of victims of the famous war minister from the ranks of bad journalists. General Chris Donahue became famous, among other things, for the photograph of the last soldier to leave Afghanistan.

Europe is especially grateful to General Chris Donahue for his commitment to the defense of Ukraine and the strengthening of the EU's eastern borders.

Donahue is a West Point graduate, former Delta Force commander and former commander of the 82nd Airborne Division. He helped lead security for the evacuation of the Afghan capital of Kabul in 2021, and was perhaps best known for being the last American soldier on the ground in Afghanistan, before boarding the final U.S. aircraft departing Kabul.

The following year, as Ukraine faced a full-scale Russian invasion, Donahue was among the first senior officers on the ground in Europe to assist the Ukrainian armed forces. He was known for playing a pivotal role in advising the Ukrainians and enabling them to survive the first year of the war.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gen-chris-donahue-to-retire-army-commander-latest-departure-military-trump-hegseth/