Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[promise444c5]

Ornith based on qwen 3.5 with gemma4 is the better agentic model while qwen 3.6 both dense and moe are the better coders.

qwen  thinks too much.. that’s my only problem with it.

[BobLawblaw]

qwen  thinks too much.. that’s my only problem with it.

That's the magic sauce that makes Ornith so powerful; it keeps it's chain of thought by feeding back the prior think text into the next prompt.

"Reinforcement Learning" if you will.

You can always run with reasoning off though, if you just want speed, but then you might as well just stick with Qwen, with reasoning disabled. Qwen has self corrections to compensate for running with reasoning off.

[promise444c5]

qwen  thinks too much.. that’s my only problem with it.

That's the magic sauce that makes Ornith so powerful; it keeps it's chain of thought by feeding back the prior think text into the next prompt.

"Reinforcement Learning" if you will.

You can always run with reasoning off though, if you just want speed, but then you might as well just stick with Qwen, with reasoning disabled. Qwen has self corrections to compensate for running with reasoning off.

I think turning that off would be a disaster. I will eventually be forced to turn it back on after 2 prompts .
Ornith it is.. will give it a try.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

Ornith based on qwen 3.5 with gemma4 is the better agentic model while qwen 3.6 both dense and moe are the better coders.

qwen  thinks too much.. that’s my only problem with it.

They're tools you choose which one excels at your use case. I only use them for coding so I use qwen3.6 mostly but I am going to try ornith for architecture and qa on my next project.

I'm finding it interesting watching Bob setup agentic tasks and go through models and it looks like he hit the sweet spot with ornith.

BTW I found Gemma4 to be over hyped garbage unless you want a wafu I guess.

I'm interested in deepseek v4 right now but haven't had the time to get into it yet and it's not really a high priority as I've found qwen 3.6 to be so good it does the job I need where as all previous models were a bit of a struggle to get the same end result. My last project I ran qwen3.6 35b for a straight week 24/7 without it having one issue on a large codebase.

*also it you want the thinking lowered then lower your settings.
these, i'm assuming your using llama.cpp
--temp
--top-p
--repeat-penalty
--max-tokens

You have not mentioned your usecase, it matters.

[Lucius]

OT: Futbol...jeez...the importance of hair.
No hair would have been 2:2 (P/C)
Hair touched the ball 2:1 (P/C)

Honestly, this technology has done more bad than good for football, because not only can you no longer rejoice when your team scores a goal until you see all the possible confirmations that the goal is legitimate, but this same technology can be misused in order to manipulate the final result.

Last World Cup, VAR helped Argentina win first place and Messi make history, this year there is talk that FIFA will do everything to make the same possible for Portugal and Ronaldo. It's probably clear to everyone that because of things like this, people are losing faith in the legitimacy of such competitions.

If the player was by any chance bald, the goal would have been awarded

https://x.com/TheCroatian_/status/2072974814709527017

“I think it’s one of the worst decisions at a World Cup ever.”

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's News Digest - 2026-07-03 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-07-03 09:13 AM CT

Bitcoin is grinding sideways on a Friday, holding the $61,900 level after a volatile week that saw it reclaim $61,000 following a dip below $59,000. The market is caught between a record $4.5 billion in June outflows and a sudden $221.7 million inflow spike on Thursday, all while the Fear & Greed Index remains stuck in Extreme Fear at 21. Metaplanet's acquisition of 2,823 BTC has added a layer of corporate accumulation to the mix, though Strategy's recent turmoil over dividend funding casts a shadow over the dominant narrative.

Outlook: The immediate focus is whether the $221.7 million ETF inflow can sustain buying pressure or if it was merely a technical bounce after a 10-day outflow streak. Investors should watch how Strategy navigates its $2.55 billion reserve and dividend obligations, as the market tests whether its Bitcoin treasury model remains viable. On the macro side, the interplay between U.S. money supply expansion and Bitcoin's price action will likely define the next leg of this recovery.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $61,922.00 (-0.22%).

The market regime remains risk-on, yet the dominant theme of institutional lag suggests that large-scale capital deployment has stalled. Daily price movement has narrowed to a -0.22% decline, while the weekly gain of 3.2% indicates a fragile recovery from the recent 30-day drawdown. This combination of weak sentiment and stable pricing may reflect reduced selling urgency rather than genuine conviction. If the institutional narrative fails to gain traction, the current range-bound behavior could persist until a clearer catalyst emerges.

SCENARIOS

- Base Case (60%): triggers: BTC maintains $60,000-$63,000 range; Fear & Greed stays below 30; no major institutional announcements. Invalidation: Break below $58,000 or sustained Fear & Greed above 50.
- Bullish Reversal (25%): triggers: Institutional capital inflows resume; Fear & Greed rises above 40; weekly close above $65,000. Invalidation: Failure to hold $60,000 support or renewed institutional hesitation.
- Bearish Breakdown (15%): triggers: Macro risk-off sentiment; Fear & Greed drops below 15; break below $58,000 with volume. Invalidation: Quick recovery above $60,000 or positive institutional news.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Metaplanet's Accumulation: The Tokyo-listed firm added 2,823 BTC in Q2 2026, bringing its total holdings to 43,000 BTC and making it the world's third-largest corporate Bitcoin holder.

- Strategy's Dividend Dilemma: The company's perpetual preferred stock dropped below $75, raising concerns about its dividend model and forcing it to commit to selling Bitcoin to fund payouts.

- ETF Inflow Rebound: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $221.7 million in net inflows on Thursday, ending a 10-day outflow streak that totaled more than $2.7 billion.

- Ireland's Bitcoin Recovery: The Criminal Assets Bureau accessed a third dormant wallet tied to a cannabis dealer, adding 500 BTC to its 2026 recovery total and bringing the total to 1,500 BTC.

TOP STORIES

1. Metaplanet Adds 2,823 Bitcoin, Reaches 43,000 BTC and Becomes World's Third-Largest Corporate Treasury
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/metaplanet-adds-2823-bitcoin-reaches-43000
Published: 2026-07-02 07:23 AM CT
Summary: Metaplanet acquired 2,823 BTC during the second quarter of 2026 for approximately $170.7 million, bringing total holdings to 43,000 BTC valued near $2.6 billion. The Tokyo-listed firm now ranks as the world's third-largest corporate Bitcoin holder, trailing only Strategy and Twenty One Capital. The company reported a BTC Yield of 6.6% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, while its Bitcoin Income Generation business produced roughly $10.85 million in operating revenue. Total debt and preferred stock represent about 23% of the net asset value of the firm's Bitcoin, leaving room for further accumulation. Michael Saylor acknowledged the milestone on X, noting that the achievement proves the Bitcoin treasury strategy has gone global.

2. Bitcoin ETFs Post First $200M+ Daily Inflow Since May
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/news/spot-bitcoin-etfs-222-million-daily-inflow-reverse
Published: 2026-07-03
Summary: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $221.7 million in net inflows on Thursday, ending a 10-day outflow streak that totaled more than $2.7 billion. Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund led the rebound with $166 million in inflows, while BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust continued to bleed $40.4 million in outflows. The recovery follows a record $4.5 billion in net outflows during June, one of the weakest stretches for the funds this year. Bitcoin reclaimed the $61,000 level after briefly dipping below $59,000, though the Fear & Greed Index still reads at extreme fear. Altcoin ETFs also saw inflows, with Ether products attracting $29.1 million and XRP ETFs drawing $6.6 million.

3. Bitwise: Strategy's Dominance in Bitcoin Buying May Be Over
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/news/strategy-will-be-less-important-in-bitcoin-after-strc-incident-bitwise
Published: 2026-07-03
Summary: Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan stated that Strategy will become a less important figure in Bitcoin after the STRC turmoil cast doubt on its buying strategy. The company's perpetual preferred stock offering broke sharply from its $100 par value to below $75, which raised fears that its dividend model was unsustainable. Strategy responded by committing to sell Bitcoin where necessary to fund dividends and expanding its US dollar reserve to $2.55 billion. Hougan noted that Strategy holds $52 billion in liquid assets against $7 billion in debt, and Bitcoin would need to drop another 70% to put the company at risk. Strive CEO Matt Cole argued that the incident drew too much media attention, noting that Strategy's 847,363 Bitcoin represents just 4% of the total supply.

4. Ireland's CAB Recovers Third Bitcoin Wallet from Cannabis Dealer
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/irelands-cab-cracks-third-bitcoin-wallet-recovers-31-million-from-cannabis-grower
Published: 2026-07-03
Summary: Ireland's Criminal Assets Bureau accessed a third dormant Bitcoin wallet tied to convicted cannabis grower Clifton Collins, adding 500 BTC to its 2026 recovery total. The bureau now holds 1,500 BTC from the case, with the latest tranche valued at approximately $30.9 million at current prices near $61,749. Europol provided the technical support and decryption resources that enabled the breach of the decade-dormant wallet. About 4,500 BTC, worth roughly $275 million, remains locked in nine unaccessed wallets that authorities continue to pursue. The recovered coins have moved to institutional custody ahead of liquidation, dwarfing the bureau's previous decade of cryptocurrency sales.

5. Bitcoin's Case for Long-Term Value
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/heres-why-bitcoin-could-smartest-093300604.html
Published: 2026-07-02 05:33 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin has dropped 52% from its October peak as of late June 2026, prompting bearish claims that the asset is dead. The article argues that ongoing U.S. M2 money supply expansion, which has grown 238% over 20 years, supports Bitcoin's long-term upside. Federal debt approaching $40 trillion and persistent budget deficits create a tailwind for the hard-capped digital asset. Despite the lack of a direct connection between fiat debasement and Bitcoin prices, institutions and nations are gradually adopting the scarce asset.

6. Bitcoin Supply Metric Fires First Buy Signal Since 2022 Bear Market Bottom
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-supply-metric-prints-first-buy-signal-since-late-2022-as-bear-market-continues
Published: 2026-07-03
Summary: The Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio crossed back above its signal threshold in late June and early July, marking the first buy trigger since November 2022. CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr. confirmed the ratio dropped into deeply negative territory before rebounding, though he warned that a macro bottom has not yet arrived. Supply held at a loss remains relatively low compared to previous bear markets, and Adler forecast the 90-day simple moving average should hit its reversal target within two months. Fellow analyst Darkfost noted that seller exhaustion is building, but demand remains the missing piece to shore up a bullish rebound.

newspost.py Version: v1.3.2 | Model: Ornith-1.0-35B-heretic-Q4_K_M.gguf (26727MiB)

[BitHodlers]

Honestly, this technology has done more bad than good for football, because not only can you no longer rejoice when your team scores a goal until you see all the possible confirmations that the goal is legitimate, but this same technology can be misused in order to manipulate the final result.

Last World Cup, VAR helped Argentina win first place and Messi make history, this year there is talk that FIFA will do everything to make the same possible for Portugal and Ronaldo. It's probably clear to everyone that because of things like this, people are losing faith in the legitimacy of such competitions.

If the player was by any chance bald, the goal would have been awarded

https://x.com/TheCroatian_/status/2072974814709527017

“I think it’s one of the worst decisions at a World Cup ever.”

Surely Eurovision has more legitimacy as a competition.    

[philipma1957]

Honestly, this technology has done more bad than good for football, because not only can you no longer rejoice when your team scores a goal until you see all the possible confirmations that the goal is legitimate, but this same technology can be misused in order to manipulate the final result.

Last World Cup, VAR helped Argentina win first place and Messi make history, this year there is talk that FIFA will do everything to make the same possible for Portugal and Ronaldo. It's probably clear to everyone that because of things like this, people are losing faith in the legitimacy of such competitions.

If the player was by any chance bald, the goal would have been awarded

https://x.com/TheCroatian_/status/2072974814709527017

“I think it’s one of the worst decisions at a World Cup ever.”

Surely Eurovision has more legitimacy as a competition.    

Eurovision along with other contests like San Gennaro are far superior entertainment to World Cup.

I did watch a bit of it and saw at least 5 terrible calls by refs so much like USA football it stinks of bad officials .

While Eurovision is just a good time to listen and watch the show.

[d_eddie]

Recently got another chunk before the latest spike. It's all limit buys so I don't get either swayed by feeling or screwed by bad guys on exchanges. I've got more buy orders waiting if she goes down. If she doesn't, I'm good as it is.

[BitHodlers]

Honestly, this technology has done more bad than good for football, because not only can you no longer rejoice when your team scores a goal until you see all the possible confirmations that the goal is legitimate, but this same technology can be misused in order to manipulate the final result.

Last World Cup, VAR helped Argentina win first place and Messi make history, this year there is talk that FIFA will do everything to make the same possible for Portugal and Ronaldo. It's probably clear to everyone that because of things like this, people are losing faith in the legitimacy of such competitions.

If the player was by any chance bald, the goal would have been awarded

https://x.com/TheCroatian_/status/2072974814709527017

“I think it’s one of the worst decisions at a World Cup ever.”

Surely Eurovision has more legitimacy as a competition.    

Eurovision along with other contests like San Gennaro are far superior entertainment to World Cup.

I did watch a bit of it and saw at least 5 terrible calls by refs so much like USA football it stinks of bad officials .

While Eurovision is just a good time to listen and watch the show.

Eurovision is a propaganda platform, it has not been a competition for several decades. I guess if that is entertaining to you, that is your choice to make but don't pretend that it has legitimacy as a competition or more than the World Cup.

[Hueristic]

4. Ireland's CAB Recovers Third Bitcoin Wallet from Cannabis Dealer
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/irelands-cab-cracks-third-bitcoin-wallet-recovers-31-million-from-cannabis-grower
Published: 2026-07-03
Summary: Ireland's Criminal Assets Bureau accessed a third dormant Bitcoin wallet tied to convicted cannabis grower Clifton Collins, adding 500 BTC to its 2026 recovery total. The bureau now holds 1,500 BTC from the case, with the latest tranche valued at approximately $30.9 million at current prices near $61,749. Europol provided the technical support and decryption resources that enabled the breach of the decade-dormant wallet. About 4,500 BTC, worth roughly $275 million, remains locked in nine unaccessed wallets that authorities continue to pursue. The recovered coins have moved to institutional custody ahead of liquidation, dwarfing the bureau's previous decade of cryptocurrency sales.

1,500 coins,3 wallets cracked 4,500 Bitcoin Remain Locked

For traders watching from the sidelines, the case is a reminder that coins written off as permanently lost can still surface years later, particularly when a government agency has the wallet under legal control and the resources to keep trying.

[philipma1957]

Recently got another chunk before the latest spike. It's all limit buys so I don't get either swayed by feeling or screwed by bad guys on exchanges. I've got more buy orders waiting if she goes down. If she doesn't, I'm good as it is.

My down ladder buy is

 57.8
 56.5
 55.5
 54.3
 52.1
 50.9
 48.7

My up ladder sell starts at 127k and ends at 465k it would be nice to have a fat finger buyer

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

BTC's increase to $62,000 is driven by a significant $222 million net inflow into U.S. spot ETFs. This price movement caused large short liquidations, indicating a short squeeze was underway with more short liquidations likely to come.

[philipma1957]

Honestly, this technology has done more bad than good for football, because not only can you no longer rejoice when your team scores a goal until you see all the possible confirmations that the goal is legitimate, but this same technology can be misused in order to manipulate the final result.

Last World Cup, VAR helped Argentina win first place and Messi make history, this year there is talk that FIFA will do everything to make the same possible for Portugal and Ronaldo. It's probably clear to everyone that because of things like this, people are losing faith in the legitimacy of such competitions.

If the player was by any chance bald, the goal would have been awarded

https://x.com/TheCroatian_/status/2072974814709527017

“I think it’s one of the worst decisions at a World Cup ever.”

Surely Eurovision has more legitimacy as a competition.    

Eurovision along with other contests like San Gennaro are far superior entertainment to World Cup.

I did watch a bit of it and saw at least 5 terrible calls by refs so much like USA football it stinks of bad officials .

While Eurovision is just a good time to listen and watch the show.

Eurovision is a propaganda platform, it has not been a competition for several decades. I guess if that is entertaining to you, that is your choice to make but don't pretend that it has legitimacy as a competition or more than the World Cup.

 Sorry that a show for watching music and dancing hurts you.

A show the winner of it (Eurovision) is meaningless.

Much like the World Cup a show the winner of it (World Cup) is meaningless.

I just prefer music and dancing over guys running and kicking a ball.



meanwhile back to BTC 62k looks much better than 59k

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com